Anton Bear's den
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- Ethnic group
- Northern Russians - Slavonic & Finno-Ugric mixture, but hell it's just my guesses
What you think about that comrades?
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What you think about that comrades?
But who knows what Russia will look like in 2050, or even the EU.
My guess is no. Personally, I think that if there is a future of Russian EU membership it is not in the near one. But who knows what Russia will look like in 2050, or even the EU.
Russia has since the introduction of the CIS after the Soviet collapse, been dabbling in regional cooperation with it's neighboring countries; the EAEC or EurAsEc, the Union State, and the customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, attempting to field a joint membership into the WTO. I think personally that regional cooperation is unlikely to work well until - in my impression - Russia stops trying to dominate and control what should be it's peer neighbors.
Up till recently there seem to mutually have been no interest in a Russian membership into the Union. Putin has denied any such ambitions, and the seemingly cow-turn suggestion by Putin late last year for a EU-Russia form of union seems to have no support in the EU - save with Berlusconi - and I can only assume that it is some form of a political play for negotiation rather than a serious suggestion.
Russia is a European country, but I see it as another Europe, more Russia than anything else; the remnants of a multicultural old Empire with most of it's territory in Asia, a procedural democracy, a country where influence and resources are divided between Siloviki, Oligarchs and Mafia, all intertwined.
I think that few in Europe are particularly impressed with the Russian use of it's energy politics as a diplomatic and coercive tool in it's foreign policy, nor by it's meddling in the inner affairs of it's neighbor countries, or the Russian habit of sprinkling citizenship and passports to anyone that wants it around the region; Georgia and Transnistria being obvious examples. All in all, Russia comes out less than a modern mature democracy. I don't see Russia parting and pooling sovereignty in European solidarity under the authority of Union institutions anytime soon.
I think that the European confederacy and Russia have both common and different interests, but differs greatly in geopolitical conditions and strategies, in part due to the shear size of Russia and it's nature of a transcontinental country - in a different way than that of Turkey. I think that the future bears FTA:s and political cooperation, but I don't believe there is a reality in accession into our Union and some form of union state between us.
I believe that Russia has a future either as the union the old empire already is, or possibly a part of a refined and revamped EurAsEc.
It is of course not impossible for Russia to join in time. It also depends on the situation for Russia in 2050. I make the assumption that Russia will be a fully working democracy by that time, and that Russia lives up to the conditions of the Copenhagen Criteria - be that the contents of them may have been amended or changed by that time.
I think that we should remember that the European project is fundamentally a peace project, even if it has become something much more. By that time it might be in the spirit of European peace, stability and prosperity that they enter a mutually beneficial membership. I just doubt it.
I suspected that Swedes are very vindictive people, almost knew it! They still don't forget the Poltava battle of 1709 year and transfer of Finland to Russian empire in 1809. That's the stale revenge from Swedish side!hahahaha (joke)
No need to blame Russia in imperial ambitions, we already empire in some sense with our 160 nations inside and 17 million square kilometers. The same as USA today or EU in the future, maybe.
Difference of federation from empire is that federation involves all nations inside to solve the problems of country for common prosperity and with general law for all without exceptions. That's the key of common coexistence. Historically empires was made for one titular nation which oppresses others and they start constantly to resist. It's main reason why empires are fall.
Russia did not nothing terrible or bad for last 20 years :innocent:
Well, there was short war with Georgia in 2008 year, but EU report was that it's Georgia's blame, not Russia. Passports? Do you know such guy Gamsakhurdia? It's Georgian president of early 90s which was nazi, he screamed "Georgia for Georgians!" etc... he started brutal ethnic war in Georgia and lost 2 territories: Abhazia and South Ossetia. It was Georgian decision to don't give georgian passports to populations of these two regions during 90s, so they got Russian passports lol :innocent: Georgians can blame only themselves.
Mr Berlusconi is awesome, so many sex scandals and still at power... simply insubmersible politic love him
And no need to blame Russia for supply problems of Europe by gas. Company Gazprom sent the volume of gas which was demanded. That's all Ukranian "black hole" where gas is disappears without a trace
But soon, the North Stream will be finished (possibly in that year), to 2016-17 the Southern Stream. That must secure against "black hole" on 100%.
Russia want to be a peer of it's neighbors? Is not USA a peer of western Europe? Is not that the main reason of EU establishment?
As for Russia itself...well, after USSR collapse we got alcoholic Boris Yeltsin in power , but were made painful main reforms which turned us from Soviet command economy to market economy.
"Siloviki" lol you probably mean Mr. Putin and his KGB friends in different structures of executive authority. I don't see here a problem, these people are just patriots of their country. Anyway, Russia changing, old generation slowly replaced by a new generation. Mr. Medvedev is nice example, he is a lawyer by profession. "bloody KGB" gave him a power to rule the country and I bet in 2012 he again will be elected, not Putin.
I think "democracy" is good thing. Separation of powers (on executive power, legislative power and judicial power) with authority of law and fair free elections is best what humanity created. But no need to transform it into new religion or ideology. Russia chose communism in the start of 20th century the same as Germany chose Nazism, it ended very bad. We have saying here "by good intentions is paved road to a hell".
On place of EU I would better focused on the things that make Europeans as Europeans. Democracy has nothing to do with it, it good but too universal thing.
I think Russia has more of a right to be in the EU than turkey does, but I don't think russia needs to be in the EU. Its already massive and does well on its own. A good partnership I see developing, sharing energy needs and business, ect.
What I'd like to see in the near future is this cold war attitude that NATO has with Russia to be over. USSR is gone but people still are edgy. An example is one of the wiki leaks shows plans of an American defence of the baltic countries if Russia were to try and invade them, why would russia invade those countries? Why is USA still keeping its distance with Russia?
Politicians in these countries using "Russophobia" for elections, earning of political points (such people like family of Kaczynski in Poland). Although we (Russians) of course have our part of responsibility and guilt :ashamed2:, that's all about history.
Well, good for Finland. They will soon celebrate a full century of independence. Concerning your comment on the Baltic states I suspect that the biggest reason for them to join EU and NATO was because Russia is their neighbor.
I think you misunderstood my quip about Russia being a peer to it's neighbors. Can you specify what you mean by "the main reason"?.
You can not imagine how I like Sweden :grin: you guys almost commies in my eyes with your social spending (Note: I am not a commie myself). Russia definitely has something in common with Scandinavian countries (I know there is many blondes in Scandinavia, we have some here too ). :beer1:I do have an affinity for Russia, it's people and history. Non the least the wonderful language and culture.
Is not EU was founded because very small influence of European states on the background of the U.S. & Soviet Union during Cold War? I know that EU began as a union of steel & coal producers between France and Germany after the WWII. But the main sense in alliance of forces, is not it? Barroso even talking about "democratic empire".
www (dot) youtube (dot) com/watch?v=-I8M1T-GgRU
Now there is one more reason - rising of China and Asia in general
The European Union is not an attempt to create a superpower.
Democracy is not only of interest and importance to the people of a country, but to the peoples of that country's neighbors. It is a question of mutual security, common long term interests and trust. I think that a shortage of these aspects is the problem of the regional cooperation between Russia and it's neighbors.
Agree, that's why it very difficult to reproduce. We in Russia almost the whole our 1000 years history were authoritarian and even once totalitarian. As I said already, for "5 minutes" old habits is impossible to change. But I again want to say that no need to create an ideologies to answer all questions of humankind. Simple example, "the book of democracy" says: "State must hold democratic elections to the regional authorities and everyone can participate, so population will choose the best candidates". In reality it not always work, because local mafia and other criminal elements can easy to promote their candidates in the power if "civil society" is not developed enough (like in RF yet). That's why in Russia elections in local authorities based only on political parties lists.because democracy is not only a system, but a culture.
Well, I think British became a "victim" of America in some sense after the WWII because they lost their colonial empire, "thanks" to American efforts ("Atlantic Charter" treaty). USA wanted to get markets for their goods in colonies, so old British empire was a obstacle.America and especially Britain were busy stirring the European soup for almost 300 years.
I don't think that USA or Britain having fun when "Europeans kill each other", but countries which don't participate in the war directly (I mean don't have a total destruction from it) definitely have some profit from it. I recommend to check in the internet the American economic indicators before WWII and after, it's like heaven and earth.It's fine for them when Europeans kill each other.
It's typical anglo-saxon pragmatism. Before the war was not clear who is worse Stalin or Hitler so they spoke such statements.In his words.. If the Russians win, we support the Germans.Or otherwise. And they did.
Until the Russians gained terrain..
Then they immediately launched the attack on French Normandy.
@Reinaert
I understand that by Russia you mean the Soviet Union. In what way do you consider this pertinent to a future Russian accession to the EU? Do you consider that to be realistic? If so, why?
The membership of Turkey in the EU is an American agenda.
why do you think US wants turkey in EU?
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