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View Poll Results: Will Ukraine join EU?

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Thread: Will Ukraine join EU?

  1. #26
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    Ukrainian-Russian ties are very old. Foundation of the first russian state was in today Ukraine (Kievan Rus).
    In 18th century, part of Ukraine was conquered by tsarist Russia (New Russia). Poland is the other historic big player in traditional opposition to Russia, because another part of Ukraine belonged to the Polish-Lithuanian empire.
    The ukrainian population does not seem completely united with regard to Russia and EU/Poland. Both colonial players of course try to suggest otherwise in their media. Catholic and Orthodox religion divides Ukraine even more.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    In current policy it doesn’t matter if Crimea was or is settled by Russians or not. Most important thing is as I think that merger of East and West Germany was part of greater agreement that between Germany and Russia there will be buffer zone, part of it will be under German and part under Russian influence. And Ukraine is that Russian part. In my opinion helping Ukraine in becoming independent nation eventually will bring Russia closer to the rest of Europe.
    Every central European country reformed and went thru shock of Russian sanctions, and now it is time to the same for Ukraine. Ukrainian case exceeded expectations of Ukrainian, Russian and EU politicians, no one knew that situation is so serious. EU side thought that Eastern Partnership did their work to convince Ukraine to sign cooperation agreement, Russians thought that Ukraine will join custom union with them, Ukrainians want to integrate with EU but their government wants opposite that is how to get civil unrest.

    Russian minority plays secondary roles in this case, just look at Estonia and Latvia 25% and 27% respectively are Russians in Ukraine it is only 17%.


    Edit:
    ElHorsto
    First Rus state, not first Russian state.

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    I guess it's pretty much stupid poll. The Ukraine will never be a member of EU coz the Ukraine is too big and too poor. Germany is not eager to put one more bagger on its pay roll.

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    Even if Ukraine will never join EU it will benefit more from free trade by joining European Economic Area and from becoming part of Schengen Area.

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    You cannot even imagine what is happening in Ukraine. It looks like a real war in the streets in Kiev. Crowds of people try to fight for the rights. But Ukraine will never join EU, because it is a very poor country.

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.

    Talking Will Ukraine join EU?

    - Yes of course! Right after as Turkey joins!

    - And when Turkey will join EU?

    - Never

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    What history teaches us is to never say never.
    Last edited by LeBrok; 21-12-13 at 01:44.
    Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.

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    I think yes, maybe they enter togheter balkan country.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa View Post
    Your opinion. Will Ukraine join EU?
    Your country is a potential important power country of east europe (maybe the second after the russia).
    The problem of your country (you know that) is comunism and corruption, if you solve this two problem and you enter in a phase "democracy", i'm certainly you enter in ue and be a second power in east europe.
    The problem of poor is connected to comunist and corruption.

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    I thînk so and I hardly wish it !!!!!!

    i know a lot of ukrainian and most of them feel European, believe me !!!!

    i think into 10-15 years they will be into Europe...you can't change the willing of all the population and Ianoukovitch will understand it soon...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Anton, Bear's den View Post
    - Yes of course! Right after as Turkey joins!

    - And when Turkey will join EU?

    - Never
    I still think this is the most likely scenario. Unless the person who eventually replaces Putin is not another strongman but someone with a real commitment to democracy, someone who wants Russia to join the EU, and who's able to convince Russians living in both Russia and the Ukraine that the present Russian/Ukraine border should stay where it is forever. Which is very, very unlikely, IMO. Russians still remember that the eastern Ukraine was part of Russia until Khrushchev made it part of the Ukraine (and they don't think it's relevant where the Ukrainian/Russian border was in previous centuries). And Russians still seem to want to be ruled by strongmen who won't want the EU going any further east. When were Russians ever afraid to cut off their noses to spite their faces?

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    Why do you think Ukraine wants to get into EU?
    What was the voting in the Parliament anyway?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aberdeen View Post
    I still think this is the most likely scenario. Unless the person who eventually replaces Putin is not another strongman but someone with a real commitment to democracy, someone who wants Russia to join the EU, and who's able to convince Russians living in both Russia and the Ukraine that the present Russian/Ukraine border should stay where it is forever. Which is very, very unlikely, IMO. Russians still remember that the eastern Ukraine was part of Russia until Khrushchev made it part of the Ukraine (and they don't think it's relevant where the Ukrainian/Russian border was in previous centuries).
    But the population of east Ukraine is truly more pro-russian, thus the country could eventually break-up where one part could join EU. I think for now Janukovich just tries to gain profit by playing games with both West and Russia because Ukraine is on the brink of bankruptcy. There are not two but three parties involved.

    And Russians still seem to want to be ruled by strongmen who won't want the EU going any further east. When were Russians ever afraid to cut off their noses to spite their faces?
    It's not the EU but NATO. Putin is actually pro-EU and very western oriented (see former Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis), in the tradition of Peter the Great. The strongman just insists on the fulfillment of the 2+4 treaty.

  14. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by ElHorsto View Post
    But the population of east Ukraine is truly more pro-russian, thus the country could eventually break-up where one part could join EU. I think for now Janukovich just tries to gain profit by playing games with both West and Russia because Ukraine is on the brink of bankruptcy. There are not two but three parties involved.



    It's not the EU but NATO. Putin is actually pro-EU and very western oriented (see former Paris-Berlin-Moscow axis), in the tradition of Peter the Great. The strongman just insists on the fulfillment of the 2+4 treaty.
    Based on my conversations with Ukranian immigrants to Canada, I doubt that many Ukranians would be willing to let the eastern half of their country rejoin Russia, even though it would probably be best for all concerned, and such a change might make it possible for the Ukraine to join the EU without too much trouble from Russia - that would really depend on what was happening in Russia. And I suspect that the Russians would like to have a free trade zone with the EU and close ties with Germany and France without formal EU membership, because formal EU membership would require further political integration, including perhaps eventual NATO membership. When the Germans and French think about what it would mean to have the Russians in NATO, or even in the EU in a political sense, I suspect they'd agree to a more informal arrangement on economic issues rather than having Russia in the EU. Just my opinion based on a view from a distance - I could be wrong.

  15. #40
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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    April 21, 1986| Associated Press
    Disband NATO, Warsaw Pact, Gorbachev Says



    "In a speech to workers in East Berlin, Gorbachev said Moscow is ready for 'a simultaneous disbanding of the Warsaw Pact and NATO, or, for a start, their military organizations.' The Soviets have previously said they were prepared to scrap the Warsaw Pact if the West dissolved the North Atlantic Treaty Organization military alliance. The offers have been viewed with skepticism in the West."



    And he had done it 1/4 century ago. Yet we still have NATO eating up space across Europe and getting it's warheads closer to the Russian border.
    So much about peace efforts...

  16. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aberdeen View Post
    Based on my conversations with Ukranian immigrants to Canada, I doubt that many Ukranians would be willing to let the eastern half of their country rejoin Russia


    Certainly, that's why I actually see some risk of civil war.

    , even though it would probably be best for all concerned, and such a change might make it possible for the Ukraine to join the EU without too much trouble from Russia - that would really depend on what was happening in Russia. And I suspect that the Russians would like to have a free trade zone with the EU and close ties with Germany and France without formal EU membership, because formal EU membership would require further political integration, including perhaps eventual NATO membership. When the Germans and French think about what it would mean to have the Russians in NATO, or even in the EU in a political sense, I suspect they'd agree to a more informal arrangement on economic issues rather than having Russia in the EU. Just my opinion based on a view from a distance - I could be wrong.


    Absolutely. Putin never considered EU membership, neither did the EU. It was all about partnership. Russia is just too big to be member in EU. But regarding NATO, ten years ago Putin issued during a TV interview the possibility that Russia would eventually join NATO. I guess this also went out of consideration meanwhile.

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    Two months after start of protests against Viktor Yanukovich foreign policy, Ukraine is mired in riots. The trigger for the demonstration was the refusal to sign an association agreement with the EU. Demonstrators take over government buildings in some cities and towns, it starting to look like civil war. Here are news. And map from Washington post:

  18. #43
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    I think that there are severals scenarios that may play out in Ukraine.

    #1

    Ukraine is divided, between a pro- European side, and a pro -Russian side. The pro-Europe side signs the AA, and eventually joins the EU. The pro-Russian side join the Russian Customs Union, and later joins the Eurasian Union.

    #2

    Elections are called immediately. The pro-Europe parties win, and form a new government, Yulia Tymoshenko is freed, and gets some sort of governmental position. Ukraine reforms, and decides to sign the AA with the EU. They forge closer ties with the EU, and eventually join it. Peace is restored, and the nation is happy.

    #3

    The protests turn into a civil war. The war lasts for years, and the nation turns into anarchy. The EU, NATO, and Russia intervene. This results in an international war. (This would be the worst scenario, but is likely if no reforms happen, and if elections are not called in the Ukraine).

    #4

    The current President holds power by attempting to crush the protests with military force. His actions shock the international community. He holds power, and does not have any new elections. He jails and (possibly) kills the opposition, and gets the country closer to Russia. The country becomes a dictatorship like Belarus.

    __________________________________________________ __________________________________________________ _____

    Honestly, my personal views are that the pro-Europe parties will win an early election, and that the country will right itself. I hope that they will sign the AA, and that they will one day join the EU.

    So, I guess my answer to the original question is, yes, Ukraine should be a member of the EU when reforms are implemented.

  19. #44
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    Look at the blue part of Matbir's map. Under which scenario will the people in that part of the Ukraine agree to your second scenario? They won't. Now look at a world map, and think about how a typical Russian strongman like Putin would feel about the Ukraine permanently tilting toward Europe. Sadly, the third scenario seems like the most probable.

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    Lightbulb Should Ukraine be a member of EU?

    The Western Republic of Galicia and Podolia must go in direction of EU since the people who live there really share the European values, their version from 30s of 20th century

    While industrial Eastern Ukraine and Crimea should go in direction of Russian Federation

    I think comrade Stalin made a huge mistake when united western Ukraine with eastern in 1939, Ukraine the country where the borderline between different civilizations is located.

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    Quote Originally Posted by GloomyGonzales View Post
    Germany is not eager to put one more bagger on its pay roll.
    Who knows. Angela Merkel is currently more popular in Poland than in Germany.

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    I think that Ukraine should definitely become part of the EU. I think that once it bcomes more stable in a few months, it should send an application to apply for membership following the signing of the Association Agreement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Europa View Post
    Your opinion. Will Ukraine join EU?
    Recent events will shed a new sense of emergency to move things forward, but it will still take several years as there will be lots to be done. Most difficult part will be that it has to get worst before it gets better when new reforms start getting in place. That will be a tough test.

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    They will join because this is what Angela Merkel wants.
    I wonder whom will join first EU,Montenegro,Serbia or Ukraine?

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    Quote Originally Posted by mihaitzateo View Post
    They will join because this is what Angela Merkel wants.
    In this one sentence you have ignored wishes of most Ukrainians, about 20 million people, who want to belong to EU. Can you be more, how should we say, fair and objective?
    Last edited by LeBrok; 26-08-14 at 16:18.

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