Poll: What will Ötzi's Y-DNA haplogroup be?

[sparkey]

Remember, his Y-DNA should be published soon. So, take a guess! I'd like to see tallies. Recall that he lived 5,300 years ago in the Italian Alps.

I'm guessing G2a.

[Taranis]

Interesting poll! I agree that G2a is a likely possibility (given how G2a appears to be *the* Neolithic Haplgroup in Europe), but the interesting question should be this: if he is not G2a what is the most likely he could be?

[sparkey]

Interesting poll! I agree that G2a is a likely possibility (given how G2a appears to be *the* Neolithic Haplgroup in Europe), but the interesting question should be this: if he is not G2a what is the most likely he could be?

I thought it would be too easy to say "I" so I split it up into a bunch of subclades in the poll. Of my options, I think I2a1, especially its subclade I2a1a, had the largest spread in Ötzi's region during his time, so I think it's possibility #2. But his mtDNA was an odd extinct subclade, so I wouldn't be surprised if we found something similarly rare or even extinct for Y-DNA, like I2* or I* or F*.

[Taranis]

I thought it would be too easy to say "I" so I split it up into a bunch of subclades in the poll. Of my options, I think I2a1, especially its subclade I2a1a, had the largest spread in Ötzi's region during his time, so I think it's possibility #2. But his mtDNA was an odd extinct subclade, so I wouldn't be surprised if we found something similarly rare or even extinct for Y-DNA, like I2* or I* or F*.

I agree that something extremely rare or extinct is absolutely possible, given how the Neolithic site in Germany yielded F* alongside of G2a. What is absolutely unlikely is any one of the following:

- N1c1
- Q
- L

I also think that J1, J2, R1a and R1b are rather unlikely, especially R1b would totally surprise me at this point.

[sparkey]

I agree that something extremely rare or extinct is absolutely possible, given how the Neolithic site in Germany yielded F* alongside of G2a. What is absolutely unlikely is any one of the following:

- N1c1
- Q
- L

I also think that J1, J2, R1a and R1b are rather unlikely, especially R1b would totally surprise me at this point.

I tend to agree. Would you say that we're still so confused about E1b that we can say that it is neither likely nor unlikely to appear?

[Taranis]

I tend to agree. Would you say that we're still so confused about E1b that we can say that it is neither likely nor unlikely to appear?

Yes, E1b is a mystery. I must admit that I was quite baffled by the absence of E1b in Neolithic sites. Given how E1b has some very high concentrations in certain parts of Europe (Iberia, northern France and the Balkans - especially Albania), it is quite a mystery.

[Mzungu mchagga]

Is this a contest? Do I win something when I'm correct? Will the price be split if more than one is correct?

[Taranis]

Is this a contest? Do I win something when I'm correct? Will the price be split if more than one is correct?

Good one. At the end, your guess may be just as good (or just as bad) as anybody else's.

[Goga]

I voted R1b L11+, because I couldn't choose between I1 or I2 and their subclades.

[Mzungu mchagga]

For the case sparkey changes his mind and he decides to hand over a price that will be split, I precautiously set my vote on an option no one has bet on so far.

[sparkey]

I will personally see to it that the winner(s) get +rep. (What, were you expecting more than "reputation" on an Internet forum poll? )

[Mzungu mchagga]

I will personally see to it that the winner(s) get +rep. (What, were you expecting more than "reputation" on an Internet forum poll? )

lol
sounds fair!

[Dorianfinder]

Me thinks a G2a goat herder playing the pan pipes or even a bag pipe.

[Knovas]

I voted for I2a. Will see!

[Mzungu mchagga]

Huh? Why can't we see anymore who voted for which option? In any case, I voted I2a1, too!

[sparkey]

Huh? Why can't we see anymore who voted for which option? In any case, I voted I2a1, too!

Really? Did you try clicking on the underlined tallies? I see everybody's votes. I would like to hear Semitic Duwa's explanation for "I* or IJ" in particular... really interesting choice! Personally, that's how I would vote if Ötzi was a Cro-Magnon, but I think his time period is probably too late for I* or IJ (but you never know!).

[barbarian]

e1b

i guess this is my one and only chance to get some rep.

[Mzungu mchagga]

Really? Did you try clicking on the underlined tallies? I see everybody's votes. I would like to hear Semitic Duwa's explanation for "I* or IJ" in particular... really interesting choice! Personally, that's how I would vote if Ötzi was a Cro-Magnon, but I think his time period is probably too late for I* or IJ (but you never know!).

Oops I didn't know about that option, thanks!

[Taranis]

e1b

i guess this is my one and only chance to get some rep.

Well, as I said, we're pretty much tapping in the dark with E1b (with exception of E-M81, I would say, upon second thought), so who knows.

[elghund]

I voted R1b-L11. Perhaps S116 or U106.

[Maciamo]

I voted G2a. But here is my ranking of likelihood :

1) G2a
2) I2a1 (old I2a)
3) E1b1b
4) T
5) J2
6) I2c
7) J1
8) R1a
9) R1b1* or R1b1c
10) I2*
11) I* or IJ
12) F
13) L

I think it is impossible that Ötzi was R1b1b2. R1b is possible though, but only older subclades like R1b1 (P25) or R1b1c (V88), or conceivably even R1b1b*. I cannot imagine how he could be N1c1 or Q either.

[Bodin]

I would say G2a or less likely F* , I2a1 or J2

[sparkey]

I voted G2a. But here is my ranking of likelihood :

1) G2a
2) I2a1 (old I2a)
3) E1b1b
4) T
5) J2
6) I2c
7) J1
8) R1a
9) R1b1* or R1b1c
10) I2*
11) I* or IJ
12) F
13) L

I think it is impossible that Ötzi was R1b1b2. R1b is possible though, but only older subclades like R1b1 (P25) or R1b1c (V88), or conceivably even R1b1b*. I cannot imagine how he could be N1c1 or Q either.

I'll give a ranking a shot. I think that you importantly missed I2a2 and I2b and give too little credit to F:

1) G2a -- an obviously dominant Neolithic haplogroup
2) I2a1 (old I2a) -- another obviously dominant Neolithic haplogroup, especially in the West
3) I2c -- didn't apparently spread as fast as I2a1, but spread earlier than most Haplogroup I, and has a center of diversity close to Ötzi
4) F -- already seen in a Neolithic sample, could be a sign of things to come
5) I2a2 (old I2b) -- a later spread than I2a1 and probably a bit farther from Ötzi than I2c, but both are still within range
6) E1b -- still a big question mark, but Ötzi could possibly be our E1b breakthrough
7) J2 -- could be Neolithic, also raises questions
8) T -- ditto E1b, J2
9) J1 -- ditto E1b, J2, T
10) I2b-ADR -- probably too rare and poorly assimilated with farmers, but has a center of diversity not too far Southeast of Ötzi
11) R1b L11- -- could have feasibly spread into Europe before R1b L11+
12) R1a -- we're stretching R1a's range here, but I think it could have spread outside of Corded Ware early
13) R1b L11+ -- this would pretty much mean that Taranis, Maciamo, and I are wrong about R1b L11+, which, sure, is possible
14) I2* -- we'd have to theorize him to be an extinct branch of I2 for him to be I2*, which is now an empty set, although if he is an extinct branch of something, this may be most likely
15) I1 -- I1 clearly expanded far North of Ötzi after he lived, so he would pretty much have to be an extinct branch of it
16) I* or IJ -- another extinct branch possibility, probably too early for Ötzi
17) L -- we're very far outside of L's range, but it could represent early movement of it
18) Q -- ditto L
19) N1c1 -- ditto Q

[Taranis]

Very well said, Sparkey. I must say, it would be fascinating if Ötzi would end up being our E1b breakthrough.

[Maciamo]

I don't think that Ötzi could be I1 or I2a2 (old I2b). These haplogroups are too northern in origin to be found at the Italo-Swiss border in the Chalcolithic.

As for F, I believe that the Neolithic LBK sample was a fake F, more likely to have been a J1. The study didn't test for M267. I was also misled to think that F still existed in the Caucasus, but it turned out that all the F was actually J1. In other words, if F* is almost inexistent today, I doubt that it ever was a major Neolithic haplogroup. It is just too old.