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View Poll Results: How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

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  • Paleolithic continuity

    100 43.86%
  • The Early Indo-Europeans

    9 3.95%
  • Sea Peoples

    3 1.32%
  • The Sarmatians

    6 2.63%
  • The Slavs

    90 39.47%
  • Other (please tell us your theory)

    20 8.77%
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Thread: How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

  1. #551
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    1 members found this post helpful.
    http://i2aproject.blogspot.com/2014/...-dinarics.html

    I hope that people understand what this means - paleolithic continuity theory is dead.

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    Quote Originally Posted by motzart View Post
    If I2a Din spread to Croatia with the Slavic Croats then we would expect to see a positive correlation of I2a Din in the areas where the Croats settled and a negative one for where the native Romans at the time fled to.

    So we would expect to see (I2a Din) Croats on the mainland, and some other mixture of roman survivors on the islands and mountains surrounding Ragusa.
    I think you are on the right path here, but... You should not use only Croats (Croatia) in your analysis, but try to look at the Balkans as a whole. And on the map bellow you will see the pattern you are looking for. The previous native population retreated to those areas where E-V13 has a higher frequency.

    Looking at R1a:Slavs as 1:1 connection is a trick. It messed up the minds of many people.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    There is a big difference. Today there are significant leftovers in those same regions, from the most of the languages you have written above.
    And as I have written, Gothic leftovers don't exist in the Balkans, not even as a trace.

    And again correlation between I2a1b and Slavic populations is huge.

    So, please write, WHY NOT SLAVS?
    The correlation you speak about is linguistic, it counts for nothing in genetics.
    Give me a genetic association with the origins of a slavic tribe from the polesie area ( all slavic scholars state this as the true origins of the slavs) and the people you talk about as being I2a-din.

    Back to goths, my guess is that goths where primararily R1a with some I markers as discovered by Ken N ( he stated origins of an I marker in ancient east prussia ,this was discussed before on this forum ).

    visigoths = pure goths , with Vandili people
    ostrogoths = east goths, mixed people
    có che un pòpoło no 'l defende pi ła só łéngua el xe prónto par èser s'ciavo

    when a people no longer dares to defend its language it is ripe for slavery.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    In the Balkans, all nationalities which have more than 16% I2a1b use Slavic language.
    And opposite from that, all that have less than 16% are not Slavic (In the Balkans).
    and what percentage of I2a1b of slavs in the balkans know how to speak English?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    I think you are on the right path here, but... You should not use only Croats (Croatia) in your analysis, but try to look at the Balkans as a whole. And on the map bellow you will see the pattern you are looking for. The previous native population retreated to those areas where E-V13 has a higher frequency.

    Looking at R1a:Slavs as 1:1 connection is a trick. It messed up the minds of many people.

    If as you say I2a-din and R1a was brought into the balkans by Slavs, then answer me what markers where with the people that where already living there?

    The area was not empty of people

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    We finally have some useful SNPs to divide the very large Dinaric
    haplogroup. One of the most important is S17250 and it is now available for
    testing as an individual SNP at FTDNA. You can also order S17250 from
    Thomas Krahn's
    http://www.yseq.net/ and no prior testing is required at
    this company. And S17250 is included as part of the Chromo2 test at
    BritainsDNA
    http://www.britainsdna.com/

    Around 12 Dinarics have tested S17250 as part of Big Y or at YSEQ. All 5
    Dinaric-South men were S17250+, and some Dinaric-North men were S17250+ and
    other Dinaric-North men were S17250-. The division between Dinaric-South
    and Dinaric-North is based on two STR markers and this division is not
    always a perfect reflection of genetic history. Dinarics belong to
    I-CTS5966 which is part of I-L621, I-M423, and I-P37 and they have been
    known by many other haplogroup designations over the years.

    Thanks to those Dinarics who have done Big Y or tested at YSEQ, and thanks
    to Larry Mayka of the Polish Project and Zdenko Markovic of the I2a project
    for analyzing the data. Please see our new Dinaric tree here
    http://i2aproject.blogspot.com/2014/05/important-new-snps-for-dinarics.htmland
    please feel free to contact me for the most recent advice before you
    order S17250 or any other test.

    Bernie Cullen
    one of the volunteer administrators, I2a Project


    The URL didn't come out correctly. Here it is again:

    http://i2aproject.blogspot.com/2014/05/important-new-snps-for-dinarics.html

    So far, most or all of those who are negative for S17250 have patrilineage
    originating near the Carpathians, particularly southeastern Poland and
    extreme western Ukraine. That pattern may change with more sampling, of
    course.

    Besides S17250, I have requested from FTDNA individual SNP tests for the
    following:
    Y3548
    Z16970
    Z16971
    YFC010724
    Y3118
    Z16983 (17558968)

    From: Bernie Cullen

    The case is not closed yet

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sile View Post
    If as you say I2a-din and R1a was brought into the balkans by Slavs, then answer me what markers where with the people that where already living there?

    The area was not empty of people
    E-V13
    J-M12
    R1b-U152
    R1b-M269(xL51)
    J-M410
    G2a

    I'm not sure about the timeline of the multiple I1 SNPs which can be found in the Balkans.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    Romania is not in the Balkans.
    Also it is a kind of a special case, which requires its own detailed analysis. I assume many have read this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Slavic_...ce_on_Romanian
    In Romanian language common use words are either cognates with Romance languages,either cognates to Slavic languages.
    So I highly doubt the theory which says that the "Slavs migrated in 6th century and they influenced Romanian language".
    I will give a single example of word,to annoy the people who are saying Slavs were not existing in Balkans before 6th Century:
    eye/s in Romanian - ochi .
    Clearly cognate with :
    Ukrainian,Bulgarian ochi (spell it oki to understand how it is pronounced) - eyes
    Serbo-croatian - oci
    etc

    So it is clear that Romanian people and language were formed from Slavic people also.
    Not possible to have basic words replaced,under the influence of settling people.
    So,first,I do not agree with the theory of Slavic migration in Balkans,I agree partially .
    I think some kind of Satem speakers,of a language that is closed to today South Slavic were living were today South Slavs are living before Roman Empire conquest.
    As for I2a1b I think is very old ,some people that were here from thousands of year before Christ.
    Notice that some genetic testing have show Thracian being very closed to Sardinians ,which have as most present paternal line a some kind of I2a.
    So is very possible that on today land of Romania,Balkans were living some Italic speakers,after which Satem speakers came and conquered them.
    Most Satem speakers were speaking some kind of proto-Slavic.In Romania was less influence in the language,this is why the language kept lots of words common with Romance languages.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mihaitzateo View Post
    In Romanian language common use words are either cognates with Romance languages,either cognates to Slavic languages.
    So I highly doubt the theory which says that the "Slavs migrated in 6th century and they influenced Romanian language".
    I will give a single example of word,to annoy the people who are saying Slavs were not existing in Balkans before 6th Century:
    eye/s in Romanian - ochi .
    Clearly cognate with :
    Ukrainian,Bulgarian ochi (spell it oki to understand how it is pronounced) - eyes
    Serbo-croatian - oci
    etc
    Occhi - Italian - eyes
    Oculi - Latin - eyes

    Hm?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    I think you are on the right path here, but... You should not use only Croats (Croatia) in your analysis, but try to look at the Balkans as a whole. And on the map bellow you will see the pattern you are looking for. The previous native population retreated to those areas where E-V13 has a higher frequency.

    Looking at R1a:Slavs as 1:1 connection is a trick. It messed up the minds of many people.


    You can see exactly which haplogroups were there before the Slavs and which ones came with the Slavs from this data. They created this study with the goal to prove paleolithic continuity of Haplogroup I in Croatia, but given we our current knowledge of the unlikeliness of paleolithic continuity all it does is show us which haplogroups were pre Slav.

    Every Haplogroup that has a Higher frequency for "Croation mainlaind" than for "Brac-Hvar-Korkula" is Slav, every Haplogroup that has a Higher frequency for "Brac-Hvar-Korkula" than for "Croatian Mainland" is Pre-Slav.

    Slav:

    R1a-SRY
    R1b-M173

    Pre-Slav:

    I-M170
    G-M201
    P*
    J

    The G/P*/J aren't really of any value because it is based off of <10 results. I think this study is only significant for I, R1a, and R1b.




    Frequency No 95% CR
    I-M170
    Croatian mainland 0.376 41 0.291–0.470
    Krk 0.284 21 0.194–0.396
    Bra 0.551 27 0.413–0.682
    Hvar 0.659 60 0.557–0.749
    Korula 0.537 72 0.453–0.620
    G-M201
    Croatian mainland 0.009 1 0.002–0.050
    Krk 0.000 0 0
    Bra 0.061 3 0.022–0.165
    Hvar 0.011 1 0.003–0.058
    Korula 0.104 14 0.064–0.168
    F-M89
    Croatian mainland 0.018 2 0.006–0.064
    Krk 0.000 0 0
    Bra 0.020 1 0.005–0.106
    Hvar 0.011 1 0.003–0.058
    Korula 0.015 2 0.005–0.052
    R1a-SRY10831
    Croatian mainland 0.339 37 0.257–0.433
    Krk 0.378 28 0.276–0.493
    Bra 0.265 13 0.162–0.403
    Hvar 0.087 8 0.045–0.162
    Korula 0.201 27 0.142–0.0277
    R1b-M173
    Croatian mainland 0.156 17 0.100–0.236
    Krk 0.162 12 0.096–0.263
    Bra 0.061 3 0.022–0.165
    Hvar 0.011 1 0.003–0.059
    Korula 0.015 1 0.005–0.052
    P*-92R7
    Croatian mainland 0.018 2 0.006–0.064
    Krk 0.000 0 0
    Bra 0.000 0 0
    Hvar 0.140 13 0.085–0.227
    Korula 0.060 8 0.026–0.104
    E-SRY4064
    Croatian mainland 0.055 6 0.026–0.115
    Krk 0.068 5 0.030–0.149
    Bra 0.041 2 0.013–0.137
    Hvar 0.043 4 0.018–0.106
    Korula 0.037 5 0.016–0.084
    J-12f2
    Croatian mainland 0.018 2 0.006–0.064
    Krk 0.108 8 0.056–0.199
    Bra 0.000 0 0
    Hvar 0.033 3 0.012–0.091
    Korula 0.022 3 0.008–0.064
    K-M9
    Croatian mainland 0.009 1 0.002–0.050
    Krk 0.000 0 0
    Bra 0.000 0 0
    Hvar 0.000 0 0
    Korula 0.015 2 0.005–0.052

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    http://i2aproject.blogspot.com/2014/...-dinarics.html

    I hope that people understand what this means - paleolithic continuity theory is dead.
    What does the link say exactly?

    I don't understand.

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    Quote Originally Posted by FBS View Post
    Occhi - Italian - eyes
    Oculi - Latin - eyes

    Hm?
    That proves that existed a strong inter-living between Slavs and Romance populations.
    Since in proto-Indo-European is not this form.
    Romanian have other words from Slavic,one of the words that is giving scientists from Romania a lot of headaches being zapada,used in Romanian for snow,which is cognate to old Slavonic zapadati - to fall a lot of snow.
    All Slavic speakers have a very closed word to Germanic for snow.
    Another thing,zapada is not used in the part of Romania that was conquered by Roman Empire,that much.
    Another thing,most Romanian words used for agriculture are cognate to Slavic words.
    Some theory tells that Dacians were some kind of Iranic speakers,raising sheep and being leading class,Slavs people practicing agriculture living together with Thracians,which were Italic population conquered by Dacians.

    I doubt that Slavs were carrying only one HG on paternal lines and I do not think they were carrying I2-din mostly.
    No idea why people do not have a theory in which Slavs actually came from SE Europe and spread to North since they are Satem IE speakers.
    It would be common sense that Satem IE Speakers so Slavs also to carry mostly J2,R1A in addition to other HGs.But not carrying too much I2din.
    In fact is possible that Slavs came and conquered Balkans&Romania,mixed with people here and after spread towards North Europe.
    In the process they mixed with I2-din bearers and spread I2-din towards North Europe.

    I think we whsould open a topic on linguistics section with words from Iranic languages in Albanian,Romanian and Slavic languages and also with common culture things between Iranic people and these 4 ethnicities mentioned before.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Eldritch View Post
    What does the link say exactly?

    I don't understand.
    It says that all I2a-Dinaric-South samples are positive for the newly found S17250 SNP. It also says that this new SNP is the youngest (not private) I2a SNP found so far.
    On the other side many I2a-Dinaric-North are not positive for S17250.

    Since I2a-Dinaric-South is predominant in the Balkans and I2a-Dinaric-North is more frequent as we go towards Northeast (it is almost the only I2a-Dinaric found in Northeast Europe), it is clear that the Balkan I2a-Din is younger than the one in the other parts of Eastern Europe (it is actually the youngest).

    If Balkan I2a is the youngest of all the European I2a, then it can't be the source of I2a in Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    It says that all I2a-Dinaric-South samples are positive for the newly found S17250 SNP. It also says that this new SNP is the youngest (not private) I2a SNP found so far.
    On the other side many I2a-Dinaric-North are not positive for S17250.

    Since I2a-Dinaric-South is predominant in the Balkans and I2a-Dinaric-North is more frequent as we go towards Northeast (it is almost the only I2a-Dinaric found in Northeast Europe), it is clear that the Balkan I2a-Din is younger than the one in the other parts of Eastern Europe (it is actually the youngest).

    If Balkan I2a is the youngest of all the European I2a, then it can't be the source of I2a in Europe.
    I was thinking about this and then it occurred to me that I don't have enough genetic knowledge to determine if addition or deletion of a SNP is the sign of age, evolutionary progress if you will. Are you sure if deletion can't happen with time too?
    Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    I was thinking about this and then it occurred to me that I don't have enough genetic knowledge to determine if addition or deletion of a SNP is the sign of age, evolutionary progress if you will. Are you sure if deletion can't happen with time too?
    I don't have enough knowledge too, but I think that deletion possibility is highly unlikely.

    And if it ever happened it would be impossible that it happened completely only for those I2a samples where the next youngest SNP is not found (the next youngest is I2a-CTS5966).
    And for the I2a-CTS5966 it is not completely deleted (some have it some don't). It would make no sense that it is preserved in the youngest samples.

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    Shetop:"It says that all I2a-Dinaric-South samples are positive for the newly found S17250 SNP. It also says that this new SNP is the youngest (not private) I2a SNP found so far.
    On the other side many I2a-Dinaric-North are not positive for S17250."

    No.It says that:"Around 12 Dinarics have tested S17250 as part of Big Y or at YSEQ. All 5
    Dinaric-South men were S17250+, and some Dinaric-North men were S17250+ and
    other Dinaric-North men were S17250-."

    Bernie Cullen
    one of the volunteer administrators, I2a Project

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    Quote Originally Posted by gyms View Post
    Shetop:"It says that all I2a-Dinaric-South samples are positive for the newly found S17250 SNP. It also says that this new SNP is the youngest (not private) I2a SNP found so far.
    On the other side many I2a-Dinaric-North are not positive for S17250."

    No.It says that:"Around 12 Dinarics have tested S17250 as part of Big Y or at YSEQ. All 5
    Dinaric-South men were S17250+, and some Dinaric-North men were S17250+ and
    other Dinaric-North men were S17250-."

    Bernie Cullen
    one of the volunteer administrators, I2a Project
    What part of my post is wrong?

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    The Slavic theory is beginning to look like the most sensible one.

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    Here is some more data on sampling done in the Balkans. It shows a 9.4% frequency of I2a1 M423 in Trento, which for some reason is shown as 0% in Maciamo's I2a1 map, he must have used data from a different study.





    And some maps of gothic expansion because we love maps here.











    I like this map because it shows the entire history of the gothic migration. The Goths did not settle in the entire "Ostrogothic Kingdom" rather they settled in Bosnia/Croatia and later sacked/conqured rome with no corresponding settlement.

    Here is a quote from Jordanes about how the Goths got to Pannonia and how we see them living there south of the Danube (Right where Bosnia is)

    "Now when the Goths saw the Gepidae defending for themselves the territory of the Huns and the people of the Huns dwelling again in their ancient abodes, they preferred to ask for lands from the Roman Empire, rather than invade the lands of others with danger to themselves. So they received Pannonia, which stretches in a long plain, being bounded on the east by Upper Moesia, on the south by Dalmatia, on the west by Noricum and on the north by the Danube"

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    @motzart

    I do not know why you put the trento map in the above links.

    Trento and alto-adige region of Italy rarely have people who test in genetic sites ( 23andme , ftdna etc) , this is because they get tested for free by the region.

    in regard to the I marker from these regional tests for that region. it states
    ~5% for I1
    and ~2% for I2


    the 9.4% is for North-east Italy, it can mean Veneto and Friuli regions.
    And yes Trento does fall in the term - the 3 venice's ...........veneto, friuli and trento regions

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    Shetop:"What part of my post is wrong?"

    You should say all tested Dinarics instead of"all Dinarics".

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    Quote Originally Posted by Sile View Post
    @motzart

    I do not know why you put the trento map in the above links.

    Trento and alto-adige region of Italy rarely have people who test in genetic sites ( 23andme , ftdna etc) , this is because they get tested for free by the region.

    in regard to the I marker from these regional tests for that region. it states
    ~5% for I1
    and ~2% for I2


    the 9.4% is for North-east Italy, it can mean Veneto and Friuli regions.
    And yes Trento does fall in the term - the 3 venice's ...........veneto, friuli and trento regions

    I posted the map of Trento to show the Region where they had a 9.4% sample for I2a1 (showing I2a1 has a higher frequency Northeastern italy than Maciamo's I2a1 map suggests), can you post me a link to the 'regional tests' you are talking about?

    Here is the study I was going off of.

    Materials and methods
    Samples
    The sample consists of 1206 unrelated male individuals
    from 17 population samples (Figure 1). Two-hundred and
    thirty-five of these, namely 64 Albanians from Former
    Yugoslavia Republic of Macedonia, 29 Croatians from
    Osijek, 75 Slovenians and 67 northeast Italians (from the
    province of Trento), are reported here for the first time. The
    remaining include samples reported earlier,
    23,27,33
    and
    consist of 104 Caucasians (38 Balkarians and 66
    Georgians), 149 Greeks (92 from Athens and 57 from
    Macedonia), 55 Albanians (collected in Tirana), 89 Croa-
    tians, 99 Polish, 75 Czechs, 92 Ukrainians, 53 Hungarians
    and 255 Bosnia-Herzegovinians (84 Bosniacs, 90 Croats
    and 81 Serbs). Blood samples were collected from healthy
    unrelated adults after obtaining informed consent. DNA
    was extracted from whole blood according to the
    standard phenol/chloroform procedure, followed by ethanol
    precipitation.
    In addition, P37.2* samples identified from a screening
    of the Sorenson Molecular Genealogy Foundation collec-
    tion (over 14 000 Y chromosomes from more than 100
    countries) were also included.

    http://www.draganprimorac.com/wp-con.../Battaglia.pdf

    Done in 2008, I think a random sampling would provide a better result than voluntary regional testing. Professional random sampling would be done on unrelated individuals with historical roots in the region, voluntary would spread family based and include individuals with no historical roots

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    Quote Originally Posted by motzart View Post
    I posted the map of Trento to show the Region where they had a 9.4% sample for I2a1 (showing I2a1 has a higher frequency Northeastern italy than Maciamo's I2a1 map suggests), can you post me a link to the 'regional tests' you are talking about?

    Here is the study I was going off of.

    Materials and methods
    Samples
    The sample consists of 1206 unrelated male individuals
    from 17 population samples (Figure 1). Two-hundred and
    thirty-five of these, namely 64 Albanians from Former
    Yugoslavia Republic of Macedonia, 29 Croatians from
    Osijek, 75 Slovenians and 67 northeast Italians (from the
    province of Trento), are reported here for the first time. The
    remaining include samples reported earlier,
    23,27,33
    and
    consist of 104 Caucasians (38 Balkarians and 66
    Georgians), 149 Greeks (92 from Athens and 57 from
    Macedonia), 55 Albanians (collected in Tirana), 89 Croa-
    tians, 99 Polish, 75 Czechs, 92 Ukrainians, 53 Hungarians
    and 255 Bosnia-Herzegovinians (84 Bosniacs, 90 Croats
    and 81 Serbs). Blood samples were collected from healthy
    unrelated adults after obtaining informed consent. DNA
    was extracted from whole blood according to the
    standard phenol/chloroform procedure, followed by ethanol
    precipitation.
    In addition, P37.2* samples identified from a screening
    of the Sorenson Molecular Genealogy Foundation collec-
    tion (over 14 000 Y chromosomes from more than 100
    countries) were also included.

    http://www.draganprimorac.com/wp-con.../Battaglia.pdf

    Done in 2008, I think a random sampling would provide a better result than voluntary regional testing. Professional random sampling would be done on unrelated individuals with historical roots in the region, voluntary would spread family based and include individuals with no historical roots
    there are 3 different 2013 papers in the thread below

    http://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads...n-Italian-Alps

  24. #574
    Advisor LeBrok's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Shetop View Post
    I don't have enough knowledge too, but I think that deletion possibility is highly unlikely.

    And if it ever happened it would be impossible that it happened completely only for those I2a samples where the next youngest SNP is not found (the next youngest is I2a-CTS5966).
    And for the I2a-CTS5966 it is not completely deleted (some have it some don't). It would make no sense that it is preserved in the youngest samples.
    I'll go with your logic for the lack of alternative explanation. :)

  25. #575
    Regular Member FrankN's Avatar
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    I don't think the Slavs are responsible for bringing I2a-Din to the Balkans:

    1. If I understood the argument brought forward by Sparkey correctly, it starts with the observation of high I2a-Din diversity in Southern Poland. Now, because of post WWII population shifts, Southern Poland is a tricky region. In fact, the vast majority of people now living in Silesia west of Katowice should have originated from what is today Western Ukraine. Any more detailed explanation about what "Southern Poland" is meant to comprise is appreciated. Until then, I would rather tend to regard the Dniester basin (SW Ukraine & Moldova) as potential I2a-Din "homeland".
    2. The Slavic expansion is believed to have taken place from somewhere NE of the Carpathians. The south-western expansion, which comprised Croats and Serbs, is assumed to have ocurred via Moravia and the Pannonian plain. The most convenient way of getting there, especially if you are travelling with children and household belongings, is via the upper Oder and the Moravian Gate (Katowize - Ostrava - Brno). Now, we know about another Slavic expansion that started from the upper Oder, namely the Obodrites that settled Mecklenburg and Eastern Holstein. The Obotrites were "good", i.e. Christianised Slavs, thus after their incorporation into the Holy Roman Empire in the late 12th century, the nobility was left in place and actually continued to rule as Dukes of Mecklenburg until 1919. Their genetic footprint, while diluted by subsequent German settlers (possibly also some Swedes during the 17th and 18th century), is well preserved - R1b frequency peaks around Rostock (central Mecklenburg) at 32%. Ia2-Din, OTOH? None that I am aware of (I am, however not following the various DNA pages).
      Now, I find it hard to imagine that two migrations that started about the same time and overlapped each other along the upper Oder have resulted in completely different genetic patterns - R1b prevalence in the North, I2a-Din prevalence in the South. Before someone starts with "founder effects" - the Obotrites initially settled in various disjunct areas ("Siedlungskammern"), and only in the 9th century developed political coherence. If at all, smaller genetic components like Ia2-Din are much more likely to have been amplified in one of the many disjunct Obotrite areas than along the middle Danube, which has been a major transit corridor also during early South Slavonic times.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Obotrites (anybody understanding German should select the German version that is far more detailed and less erroneous).
    3. What if I2a-Din took a shortcut from the Dniester Basin to Serbo-Croat lands? The sources of Dniester and Tisza aren't that far apart. Quite a possible migration route. However, in that case we land with Gepids, Dacians etc. rather than with Slavs, all of which have been discussed here already and don't need to be repeated.
    4. What if the Serbs and Croats picked up I2a-Din somewhere on their way, say around the Morava in SW Slovakia / Eastern Austria (which, as I have understood, seems to be another diversity hotspot)? Well, first of all, this would leave the question how I2a-Din made it almost to the Balkans without the Slavs, but required them to finally arrive there. I believe the grass isn't any less green on the southern bank of the Danube than on the northern shore, and the advance of the Huns would have provided for enough good reason to move on a bit further south, even for those that previously didn't think living in the Roman Empire might be attractive.. Secondly, the advancing Slavs must have picked up quite a lot of I2a-Din on their way to bring forward the frequencies observed today.
    5. Most importantly, however, if I2a-Din was already present around the Morava (March - the Austro-Slovakian, not the one in today's Serbia), you don't need the Slavs to explain I2a-Din presence on the Balkans. I find it strange that on 23 pages so far nobody has yet been discussing the Heruli: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heruli
      After the fall of the Hunnic realm in 454 at the Battle of Nedao, in which the Heruls participated, they created their own kingdom at the March and Theiss rivers, (in the region of today's southern Slovakia).
      German Wikipedia, which I tend to trust more here, mentions that the Heruli kingdom also covered the Austrian Weinviertel (NE Austria north of Vienna).
      After the Herulian kingdom was destroyed by the Lombards, Herulian fortunes waned. Remaining Heruls joined the Lombards and some of them sought refuge with the Gepids. Marcellinus comes recorded that the Romans (meaning the East Romans or in modern naming the Byzantines) allowed them to resettle depopulated "lands and cities" near Singidunum (modern Belgrade); this was done "by order of Anastasius Caesar" sometime between June 29 and August 31, 512. After one generation, this minor federate kingdom disappeared from the historical records.

      Records indicate that the Heruli served in the armies of the Roman emperors for a number of years, in particular in the campaigns of Belisarius, when much of the old Roman territory, including Italy, Syria, and North Africa was recaptured. Pharus was a notable Herulian commander during this period. Several thousand Heruli served in the personal guard of Belisarius throughout the campaigns. They disappeared from historical records by the mid-6th century.
      I am no expert in interpreting Byzantine texts, but to me, "cities" (note the plural) denotes a quite large chunk of land to be repopulated (maybe the Serbians here can find out more details). Similarly, "several thousand Heruli" indicates a sizeable local population by 530/540 (the main period of Belisarius' campaigns), i.e. 20-30 years after the establishment of the Singidonum colony.
      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mundus_(general):
      Mundus (Greek: Μούνδος; died 536) was an Germanic general of the Byzantine Empire during the reign of Justinian I.
      Mundus was of the son of Giesmus, a king of the East Germanic tribe Gepids, and nephew to another Gepid king, Trapstila. (..) In 529, Mundus sent envoys to Justinian, offering his allegiance. His offer was accepted, and Mundus was appointed magister militum per Illyricum, head of all military forces in Illyria and along the Danubian frontier.During the next two years, he defeated incursions of Slavs and Bulgars into the Balkans and sent much booty to Constantinople.
      In 531, Mundus was briefly magister militum per Orientem, replacing Belisarius after his failure at Callinicum, but it seems that Mundus never actually traveled to the East to assume that command. In January 532, he was again appointed commander of the Illyrian forces. In the same month, he happened to be in Constantinople with a force of Heruli mercenaries when the Nika riots broke out. Mundus remained loyal to Justinian and, along with Belisarius, was responsible for the massacre of the supporters of Hypatius in the Hippodrome and thus the reassertion of imperial control.
      Mundus remained in command of the forces in Illyricum thereafter. In 535, as Justinian launched his attempt to reconquer Italy from the Goths, he led his forces into Dalmatia, which the Goths held, while Belisarius invaded Italy by sea. Mundus defeated the Goths and took the capital, Salona; but, early in the next year, a new Gothic army arrived to reclaim the province. In a skirmish near Salona, Mundus's son Mauricius was trapped with only a few men by a larger Gothic force and was killed. Enraged by the loss of his son, Mundus sallied out and defeated the Goths but was mortally wounded in the pursuit
      Obviousy, Mundus' forces were mainly made up by Heruli. With all we know about the habits of war those days ("sent much booty to Constantinople", and probably kept even more for himself and his men), genetic founder effects in Bosnia and Croatia brought forward by that Dalmatian campaign are anything but unlikely.
      Finally http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Singidunum:
      In the 5th and 6th centuries, Moesia and Illyricum suffered devastating raids by the successive invasions of the Huns, Ostrogoths, Gepids, Sarmatians, Avars, and Slavs. Singidunum fell to the Huns in 441, who razed the city and fortress, selling its Roman inhabitants into indentured servitude. Over the next two hundred years, the city passed hands several times: the Romans reclaimed the city after the fall of the Hun confederation in 454, but the Sarmatians conquered the city shortly thereafter. In 470 the Ostrogoths seized the city around, expelling the Sarmatians. The city was later invaded by Gepids (488), but the Ostrogoths recaptured it in 504. Six years later the Eastern Roman Empire reclaimed the city according to a peace treaty.
      Byzantine emperor Justinian I rebuilt Singidunum in 535, restoring the fortress and city to its former military importance. The city saw a brief peaceful period of about fifty years, but was then sacked with the arrival of the Avars in 584. During Maurice's Balkan campaigns, Singidunum served as a base of operations, but it was lost again in the early half of the 7th century when the Avars sacked and burned Singidunum to the ground. Around 630, the Slavs settled in the area.
      So, by the time of the Heruli settlement (512), the city and its surrounding hat seen several devastating raids, and at least seven times changed hands during seventy years. There probably wasn't much original population left. The Heruli colony, OTOH, experienced 70 years of peace, plus another 50 years before the arrival of the Slavs. Might just be enough to propagate I2a-Din to a sizeable number, provided it was already well present within the original Heruli / March basin colony.
      In fact, considering the linguistic situation in the area (Latin vs. Greek as official languages, Illyrian, Dacian, Germanic Heruli & Gepids, Avars, Bulgars, possibly Alans and residual Huns), it doesn't take that many Slavs taking settlement for Slavonic becoming the region's lingua franca..

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