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View Poll Results: How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

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  • Paleolithic continuity

    93 44.08%
  • The Early Indo-Europeans

    8 3.79%
  • Sea Peoples

    2 0.95%
  • The Sarmatians

    6 2.84%
  • The Slavs

    84 39.81%
  • Other (please tell us your theory)

    18 8.53%
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Thread: How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?

  1. #1651
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    Quote Originally Posted by ihype02 View Post
    North Euboea clearly had an Arvanite component earlier on:
    Lisada - Northwestern Euboea:
    Nikola Kostapetr, Aritidi Kostapetr, Manol Simos, Nikola Kara binar, Kiryako Karabinar, Cyano Karabinar, Yani Apostolo, Dimitri Kamarya, Nikola Kamarya, Nikola diger Kamarya, Mihal Karasuni, Manol Mavro, Yani Balusi, Yani Zinota, Yorgi Iskinari,* Nikola Vasilyor, Kosta Salusi, Kozma Salusi, Yorgi Salusi,

    tetim me-i karye-i L i s a d a

    Yorgi Salusi diger, Nikola Salusi diger, Yorgi Vasila, Yorgi Ivreto, Yani Ivreto, Kiryako Ivreto, Dimitri Ivreto, Nikola Ivreto, Luka Sayita, Yani Luka, Nikola Luka, Nikola Salvit, Manol Vasilikör, Kosta Vasilikor, Yorgi Makri, Istamad Makri, Nikola Makri, Yani Vlahoni, Yorgi Vasilinor, Istam ad Vasilinor, Kosta Agapito, Nikola Kamaki, Dimitri Kamaki, Yani Kamaki, Petro Kamaki, Dimitri Romaniti, Hristofor Romaniti, Aleksi Romaniti, Dimitri Arab,* Nikola Kamarana, Mihal Kamarana, Yorgi Rasula, Nikola Rasula, Dimitri Rasula, Gin damad-i Rasula, Nikola Krasos, Kostandin Krasos, Nikola Guri, Petro Guri, Istefan Palusi, Yani Kursari, Dimitri Kursari, Vasili Sarandi, Mihal Sarandi, Yorgi Kavaco, Dimitri Kacavo, Petro Kavaco, Todor Atlazi, Dimitri Atlazi, Aleksi Istasuli, Nikola Arcuras, p.* 147 Yorgi Istasuli, Istamad Lazomondas, Andriya Midali, Yorgi Kisaki, Nikola Kisaki, Dimitri Toto, Nikola Toti, Yani Sarandi, Yorgi Toto, Yorgi Morya, Yakomo Morya, Dimitri Morayit, Nikola Lalandari, Todor Lalandari, Istefan Lalandari, Yorgi Lalandari, Mihal Kukyopulo, Istamad Harikopulo. Yorgi Livada, Dimitri Livada, Yani Livada, Mihal Halkya, Yorgi Tramasi, Istamad Tumaniti, Yani Avloniti, Gini Agriyomat, Mihal Agriyomat, Yani Agriyimat, Yorgi Agriyomat, Petro Anastas, Hristodulo Kamaki, Manol Davikar, Nikola Kataduka, Istamad Ivreto, Apostoli Drako, Paraski Tomadya, Gini Landari, Kiryako Landari, Mihal Varas, Garuso Davas, Yani Mistros, Nikola Palyatura, Yani Palyatura, Dimitri Valkyoti, Dimitri Anastas, Dimitri Kursari, Yorgi Avlonit, Trogyos Kadikyopulo, Yani Harikyopulo, Andriya Balayot, Istamad Kalayot, Vlasi Gromyo, p.* 148 Petro Romana, Yani Crigar, Petro Balas, Manol Agramyot, Yorgi Agramyot, Nikola Saluti, Yani Karalasa, Papadimitri Kisaryo, Kosta Iksano, Istamad Maromat, Yorgi Nyaka, Todo Dugar, Manol Vavasi, Petro Akaras, Saro Dragumano, Katokuki Cikna, Muruzi Ihsalya, Kosta Mavasari, Potino Muvasa Iksida, Nikola Anastas, Yani Vatikyot, bîve Arhondo, bîve Sumalya, bîve Malalya, bîve tu Vasila, bîve tu Yakomo, bîve tu Simiyu, bîve Harulya.

    https://satellites.pro/Lichada_map

    I have severall other villages. And not all Arvanites carried Albanian names, some of them had Greek names too. I agree that Arvanites were self assimilated by their wish. I don't know about their actual percentage in the north but considering Arvanites in the south were not hellenized it is easy to see that their percentage was not the same in the south as in the north.
    Lichada is a settlement with a name that is traced to Greek antiquity. It comes from Heracle's servant Lichas, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lichas, which is also responsible for the local mountain Lichas and the neighboring 7 islands Lichades, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lichades. It wasn't an Albanian settlement, let alone earlier on since this image is dated to 1807 which is contemporary to the aforementioned censuses. I don't know from which source these name are taken but they were obviously written differently. If you know the source i would like to go through it. As they are written now it is difficult to make sense of most, but of the ones you have boldened, "Kursari" looks like the Greek word κουρσάρος (koursaros), which is etymologically traced to Italian corsaro and it means pirate. As for the Arvanite looking ones, as aforementioned Arvanites would move freely throughout the island, but the settlements at the northern side were Greek that's why they weren't classified as Arvanite. Greek names suggest Greek origin, same as Arvanite names suggest Arvanite origin. This isn't absolute, but suggestive and both can be found in the north and in the south likewise.

  2. #1652
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    Quote Originally Posted by Demetrios View Post
    "Kursari" looks like the Greek word κουρσάρος (koursaros), which is etymologically traced to Italian corsaro and it means pirate. As for the Arvanite looking ones, as aforementioned Arvanites would move freely throughout the island, but the settlements at the northern side were Greek that's why they weren't classified as Arvanite. Greek names suggest Greek origin, same as Arvanite names suggest Arvanite origin. This isn't absolute, but suggestive and both can be found in the north and in the south likewise.
    I deleted the former text in your reply because it is not relevant.

    Makri and Kusari can be both Albanian and Greek. Both names still exists among the Albanian and Greek populations.

    This defter is counting households thus most were permanent settlements.

  3. #1653
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    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    They weren't albanians if they carried i2a-din, maybe albanian mother at best but then south slavs had been around the balkans for hundreds of years by this point so some of them may have become identified as "albanian" earlier. South slavs moved into Byzantine so that includes Albania and maybe become Arvanites this way. I find it strange how much south slavic y dna there is in Greece and South Albania compared to the tiny amount in North Albania which was also part of Byzantine
    Maybe the Epirus region was more attractive/civilized during that era and allowed more "immigrants"?
    That is also evident via the toponymes, with the south having a larger concentration compared to the north. For example look at the following map, with the red dots representing Slavic toponymes, https://smerdaleos.files.wordpress.c...v-toponyms.png. Obviously earlier Slavic/Bulgarian kingdoms can explain that, but i also believe that Via Egnatia road had some role as well, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Via_Egnatia. As Albanians would begin their southward migrations it is only natural that some would be assimilated, hence the difference in patrilineal frequencies between north and south as observed in this following list, http://www.gjenetika.com/statistikat/.

  4. #1654
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    Quote Originally Posted by ihype02 View Post
    I deleted the former text in your reply because it is not relevant.

    Makri and Kusari can be both Albanian and Greek. Both names still exists among the Albanian and Greek populations.

    This defter is counting households thus most were permanent settlements.
    I agree that is not relevant, and i would rather focus on I-Y3120 and I-Y18331.
    Last edited by Demetrios; 27-11-20 at 16:08. Reason: Misunderstanding, you obviously meant the text from my reply to exercitus.

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  9. #1659
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    1 members found this post helpful.

    Cool

    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    They weren't albanians if they carried i2a-din, maybe albanian mother at best but then south slavs had been around the balkans for hundreds of years by this point so some of them may have become identified as "albanian" earlier. South slavs moved into Byzantine so that includes Albania and maybe become Arvanites this way. I find it strange how much south slavic y dna there is in Greece and South Albania compared to the small amount in North Albania which was also part of Byzantine and reiionally closer to South slavs
    Maybe the Epirus region was more attractive/civilized during that era and allowed more "immigrants"?
    I think its incorrect to make broad generalized statements on people's identity based on haplogroups. The more correct statement would be that I2a-Din is not Proto-Albanian or Illyrian.

    It does of course get tricky pinning down a cluster that can define an Albanian identity/ancestor. Though, I2a-Din, R1a and even some other even more less common haplogroups entered between late antiquity and the early medieval and were certainly assimilated to some degree long before these migrations took place.


    By the time Arvanites/Albanians were migrating to Greece, some I2a/R1a was already in the region for 500-1000 years. To assume some branches, Slavic or otherwise didn't enter the late proto Albanian phase of ethnogenesis and was somehow all "recent" as if Albanians were solely made up of 3 haplogroups is false.


    The Arbereshe already had a number of invader lineages with them when they migrated. I doubt they were "slavs hitching a ride".


    I2a/R1a is not well defined/sequenced amongst Albanians. The very few Albanians in I2a-Din currently on Yfull don't have any recent matches with other South Slavs for 1450-1550ybp. Until they get matches forming a cluster with Albanians or other South Slavs, it seems their common ancestors are in the early middle ages.


    Most R1a/I2a in both projects are general assignments. Only WGS/SNP testing can distinguish what may he recently assimilated or distantly assimilated.

    Also, we may now have one from Diber that could belong to the 'Greek' I-Y3120 cluster. Though its not certain. Even in Kosova, we have a few samples from Prizren that were from Albanian regions of Opoja that were I-Y3120.

  10. #1660
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    Ok

    I still do not understand the meaning of this attack by someone,
    Who plays it smart, but only creates Impressions,

    He wants to tell us what?
    that Arbanites existed in Helladic space before 1821? that is well known,
    or whatever else propaganda etc?
    Mixing Aromanian and Turkish words used as names due to job etc PROVES NOTHING

    for example surname Baltas may mean the one who lives on swamps
    as also the butcher blade carrier/user

    Balta (Ottoman Turkish word,)





    I remind you we have gone away from thread.

    and still some continue the 'war of impressions' just exactly what a propagandist want.
    ΟΘΕΝ ΑΙΔΩΣ OY EINAI
    ΑΤΗ ΛΑΜΒΑΝΕΙΝ ΑΥΤΟΙΣ
    ΥΒΡΙΣ ΓΕΝΝΑΤΑΙ
    ΝΕΜΕΣΙΣ ΚΑΙ ΤΙΣΗ ΑΚΟΛΟΥΘΟΥΣΙ ΔΕ

    When there is no shame
    Divine blindness conquers them
    Hybris (abuse, opprombium) is born
    Nemesis and punishment follows.

    Εχε υπομονη Ηρωα
    Η τιμωρια δεν αργει.

  11. #1661
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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Just to give some further clues and clarifications, the Albanian word - Floke - was borrowed through Vulgar Latin from Latin floccus, Not Vlachic \Aromanian...

    https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/flok





    I repeat, and i challenge you, find me i single Vlach Anthroponym\Patronym\Toponym: Flok-Floka, through all the Byzantine Chronicles, Serbian Chrysobulls and Ottoman Defters !?


    The Albanian ones are hundreds !!







  12. #1662
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    1 members found this post helpful.
    The Albanian Buzë\Buza\Buzi it's neither Turkish:
    Buzi\Μπούζι (το) < τούρκ. buz < ποταμό Νέδα, Max Vasmer, Triph. α.α. 25
    or Slavic:
    - Μπούζι\Buzi ist auch der heutige Name des alten Νέδα-Flusses, der aus dem Lykaion, genauer Kerausion entspringt und ins Jonische Meer mündet. Vgl. Pape Wb, s. v. Νέδα, R II 529, Philippson, Peloponnes 331 ff. Entweder ebenfalls ein »Holunder(fluß)« slav. *bъzъ oder aus alb. buzε »Mund, Mündung«. Letzteres ist wahrscheinlicher.

    - Μπούζι\Buzi is also the current name of the old Νέδα river, which rises from the Lykaion, more precisely Kerausion and flows into the Jonian Sea. Cf. Pape Wb, s. v. Νέδα, R II 529, Philippson, Peloponnes 331 ff. Either also an "elder (river)" slav. * bъzъ or from alb. buzε "mouth, mouth". The latter is more likely.

    it is simply Albanian: https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/buz%C3%AB



  13. #1663
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    1 members found this post helpful.
    The Albanian\Arvanite\Arberesh: Varibobi



    The Albanian\Arvanite\Arberesh: Zapandi




    etc etc i can continue all day long!!

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Demetrios you should be much more careful\meticulous about the comments!! Take a look again at Lisada\Lichada:


  15. #1665
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    1 members found this post helpful.
    @ exercitus

    All I see again are 3 posts instead of 1 for the reasons of Impressions.

    By impressions only ignorants you earn,
    Besides I just can't see what you want to earn? by all these posts?
    Posting subjects away from thread, and many times wrong, I can't understand why you doit?
    except if you want to convice your shelf, but I wonder what?

    for example Varibobi the job , the Slavic word for beans cooker, what Albanian you see here?

    and I repeat, with all these you mainly prove that Albanian is not only heavily Aromanian population but today also you introduce Slavic.

    Now plz get back to thread,

  16. #1666
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    Quote Originally Posted by exercitus View Post
    .
    Stop spamming the thread with mulitple posts that don't even pertain to the topic. And to end it here, i say again that flok is also found in Aromanian and it has a Latin origin after all; there is nothing to disqualify that it wasn't loaned directly from Aromanian to Albanian. Furthermore, we actually have plenty of Aromanians having this surname, as aforementioned in Kalabaka, but also in Metsovo, Thessaloniki and other places. Probably most who have that surname in Greece identify as Vlachs/Aromanians. It's not even something that interests me in order to sit and search in medieval censuses, for which i don't even have access to most of them. From a quick search on Google though i was able to find this Vlach Evangelos Flokas who was a famous pastry chef of Thessaloniki, https://www.politismika.gr/2019/12/1...5%CE%BA%CE%B9/, or this other famous Vlach from Metsovo (the centre of Aromanians in Greece) Kyriakos Flokas who lived in the 1600s, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyriakos_Flokas, with his family being among the most powerful in Metsovo. Furthermore i doubt that there are censuses with hundreds of Albanians having the surname Floka, but even among the Albanians that have them, what limits them from being of Aromanian ultimate origin? After all there is a large Aromanian minority in Albania, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aromanians_in_Albania.

    As for the toponymes of Μπούζι, Βαρυμπόμπη, and Ζαπάντη that you mention, you obviously refer to the list of Messenian toponyms i shared.
    First of all no, Μπούζι/Buzi certainly has a Turkish etymology via "buz" that means cold, and it is a reference to the cold waters of Neda throughout the year.
    Second, Βαρυμπόμπη/Varibobi is an actual Arvanite toponyme and if you actually read better, the terminology for "oak" pertained to its other toponym of Αριά/Aria which is actually a type of "oak". The first name was Βαρυμπόμπη/Varibobi, in 1927 the village is renamed to Αριά/Aria, and some 8 months later it is again renamed to Μοναστήρι/Monastiri (meaning monastery). Anyway, there is nothing out of the ordinary for the Arvanitic etymology of Βαρυμπόμπη because it is a settlement located near of the only Arvanite region of Messenia, namely that of the aforementioned Ntredes at the north of the prefecture.
    Third, no. I don't know if "Ζαπάντη" is indeed of Turkish etymology and means "shady place" as the article states, but it could very well be of Slavic "zapad" as well meaning "west", https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/zapad. Therefore "Ζαπάντη" would be at the west of a point of reference, maybe the local mountain. By the way, it doesn't exist any more. I already explained the Greek settlement of Λιχάδα/Lichada.

    Last, your comments are as unrelated to the topic of this thread similar to if i were to state that the toponymes of Gjirokastër, Sarandë, Vlorë, etc. are of Greek etymology (which they are), and claimed that its modern inhabitants are of Greek origin, despite the fact that you will find Albanians, Greeks, and Aromanians throughout this region. That would be ignorant though, right? Stop spamming the thread.

  17. #1667
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    I think its incorrect to make broad generalized statements on people's identity based on haplogroups. The more correct statement would be that I2a-Din is not Proto-Albanian or Illyrian.
    It does of course get tricky pinning down a cluster that can define an Albanian identity/ancestor. Though, I2a-Din, R1a and even some other even more less common haplogroups entered between late antiquity and the early medieval and were certainly assimilated to some degree long before these migrations took place.
    By the time Arvanites/Albanians were migrating to Greece, some I2a/R1a was already in the region for 500-1000 years. To assume some branches, Slavic or otherwise didn't enter the late proto Albanian phase of ethnogenesis and was somehow all "recent" as if Albanians were solely made up of 3 haplogroups is false.
    The Arbereshe already had a number of invader lineages with them when they migrated. I doubt they were "slavs hitching a ride".
    I2a/R1a is not well defined/sequenced amongst Albanians. The very few Albanians in I2a-Din currently on Yfull don't have any recent matches with other South Slavs for 1450-1550ybp. Until they get matches forming a cluster with Albanians or other South Slavs, it seems their common ancestors are in the early middle ages.
    Most R1a/I2a in both projects are general assignments. Only WGS/SNP testing can distinguish what may he recently assimilated or distantly assimilated.
    Also, we may now have one from Diber that could belong to the 'Greek' I-Y3120 cluster. Though its not certain. Even in Kosova, we have a few samples from Prizren that were from Albanian regions of Opoja that were I-Y3120.
    I agree. Haplogroups (both Y-DNA and mtDNA) can assist the research for identifying historical populations and understanding their movements. On a personal level though, especially if the TMRCA pertains to many generations back, it isn't really more than genetic trivia, with Y-DNA representing some 2% of your DNA and mtDNA less than 1%. It certainly shouldn't be used for constructing a people's identity. Furthermore, atDNA (autosomal) which represents the sum of all our ancestors is more crucial in my opinion, and it is something that serves ethnic coherency better (not that genetics are exclusive for ethnic identification), especially through the phenomenon of autosomal assimilation or equalization in terms of a broader collective. Imagine that the sum of our ancestors just 10 generations back, which with an average of 30 years per generation is 300 years, we have had 1024 ancestors with a base of 512, all contributing to our autosomal DNA. Now imagine going back 2000 years or approximately 66 generations exponentially. Here is also a graphic for some of the readers to better understand the differences between the three types of ancestral DNA, https://i.ibb.co/sKGWrcY/Overview-DNA-en-DNA.png.

    Anyway, back to I-Y18331. I have been contemplating more the hypothesis of @Aspar and it really tends to make the most sense. Initially I-Y18331 would be concentrated in the regions of Macedonia and Thessaly, ultimately brought there by Bastarnae who would have become Hellenized eventually. 7-8 centuries later we have the arrival of Slavs in the region and the establishment of Belzetia in Thessaly. It is attested during the late 7th and 8th century as an autonomous Slavic community under leaders such as Tihomir and Akameros. Belzetia seems to be identical with Berzitia and the early Berzites, who would later also migrate to North Macedonia in a region known as Brsjachka located in the southwestern part of the country (also complimented by the archaeological work of Ivan Mikulcic who doesn't find any Slavic related artifacts on the territory of modern North Macedonia up to the middle 9th century). Here is also a map i was able to find and edit (since it confused the colors between Brsjachka and Middle Vardar) with Brsjachka showing in orange.



    Also a second alternative map with Brsjachka being the southwestern division.



    Anyway, back to Belzetia. In 799, Akameros who was archon of the Slavs of Belzetia in eastern Thessaly was prompted by Greek conspirators from the neighboring Theme of Hellas to attempt and release Constantine V's sons from their exile in Athens (to which they had been confined by Empress Irene), and proclaim one of them Emperor. Eventually the rebels were defeated and blinded and we don't have any other historical records of them. But as @Aspar pointed out, around that time we also have a number of Slavic migrations taking place towards Peloponnese; some of them could very likely be either Berzites (as assimilated Greeks from the Theme of Hellas or even outside of it in Thessaly) or even Greeks (maybe some of the aforementioned conspirators) accompanying the Berzites Slavs. Such a migration towards Peloponnese also compliments the modern distribution of Greek I-Y18331 members being located in the southwestern part of the country and mostly in central/western Peloponnese. You see, during the 8th century the situation was as shown in the following map with Byzantines essentially holding the eastern part of the mainland and Slavs migrating and settling in the central or western part of the mainland and in our case of interest, Peloponnese. This can explain why I-Y18331 isn't found in the eastern part of the mainland, since they wouldn't be able to settle in Byzantine-controlled areas.



    Thus, i doubt Arvanites had much to do with its expansion south for many reasons. First of all, no member of I-Y18331 identifies as such or even has memory of such an identity. Second, we haven't found any I-Y18331 in areas with dense Arvanite presence; mostly located in the eastern mainland (Attica, Boeotia, Argolid, Corinthia, etc.) or even smaller traditional Arvanite settlements throughout the country. Third, every surname of the Greek members under I-Y18331 has a Greek etymology. The only exception is the Pella family which by the way were originally slavophones (for whomever wasn't aware), and located south of that Brsjachka region. With that put aside, i do believe we will potentially find some Albanian samples belonging to I-Y18331, especially regions neighboring the aforementioned Brsjachka in North Macedonia. But i don't think it will be many, with most very likely belonging to the other branches of I-Y3120. But as you pointed out, there could be one from Diber (although uncertain for now), which regionally borders Brsjachka. Brsjachka is also where we find the North Macedonian sample of Plasnica, and also as shared in prior posts where we also find the ancient synagogue of Stobi, which might explain the Jewish members of the clade with a TMRCA of 1100 ybp (or 900 CE). In Wikipedia there is also an obscure quote saying that one part of the same tribe also settled in Brest, Belarus, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berziti, but i don't know what to make of it. This can explain the northeastern European distribution of the Jewish subclade? Don't know, just a thought.


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    4 members found this post helpful.
    The estimated 2100 ybp for the MRCA of I-Y18331 is quite likely significantly exaggerated. The YFull estimates rely on formula using calculated average mutation rates. This is generally reliable, but due to the probabilistic nature of the formula, it can be expected that sometimes lower estimates are produced for a branch than for its own subclades. In these cases YFull artificially raises the branch estimates to at least match those of its oldest subclade, likely for the tree to make more sense to users who might not have the time to learn about the formula.


    This is what happened in this case. I-Y18331 MRCA is currently calculated as 1818 ybp, but YFull has changed this to 2100 to match the MRCA of its subclade I-A2512. You can read about this if you click "info", to the right of I-Y18331 on the YFull tree. So using the unchanged YFull formula, the age is actually 1818 ybp.


    However, even that is likely a consequence high mutation rates in the outlier group I-Y23115. Since the time of the I-Y18331 split, samples in this subcalde have had an average of 19 mutations in comBED regions of the Y chromosome (per YFull formula, 2810 years), while all other I-Y18331 samples have had only 11.2 (1685 years). I-Y23115 samples are clearly outliers, most probably sharing a line of ancestors between the Y18331 and Y23115 levels which happened to have an accelerated mutation rate. You can even notice this on the tree, where 12 SNPs appear to have mutated between 2100 and 1100 ybp on this line, while its brotherly clade Y66192 only had 2 mutations from 2100 to 1300 ybp. Excluding Y23115 from the calculation produces an I-Y18331 MRCA of 1685 ybp, while including them grouped into one line to be averaged out with other clades produces 1699 ybp. So per YFull formula, without interferences, the MRCA should be ~1700-1800 ybp. The only way to increase reliability in this figure is to neutralize the current data skewing effect of I-Y23115, by getting more I-Y18331*, I-A2512* and I-A10959* samples on YFull. This new I-Y18331* sample is a good step towards a more balanced calculation, so the number of mutation it will have will be important.


    Of course, a MRCA of 1700-1800 ybp would not change the fact that I-Y18331 is highly diverse in the southern Balkans, and relatively rare among Slavs, so we do not need to immediately equate it with other I-Y3120 lines. But it is difficult to speak of I-Y18331 BCE Balkan migrations with only one single subclade of it (ironically, the one that is not found in the Balkans) showing >1800 ybp estimates.

  19. #1669
    Regular Member Demetrios's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Çerç View Post
    The estimated 2100 ybp for the MRCA of I-Y18331 is quite likely significantly exaggerated. The YFull estimates rely on formula using calculated average mutation rates. This is generally reliable, but due to the probabilistic nature of the formula, it can be expected that sometimes lower estimates are produced for a branch than for its own subclades. In these cases YFull artificially raises the branch estimates to at least match those of its oldest subclade, likely for the tree to make more sense to users who might not have the time to learn about the formula.


    This is what happened in this case. I-Y18331 MRCA is currently calculated as 1818 ybp, but YFull has changed this to 2100 to match the MRCA of its subclade I-A2512. You can read about this if you click "info", to the right of I-Y18331 on the YFull tree. So using the unchanged YFull formula, the age is actually 1818 ybp.


    However, even that is likely a consequence high mutation rates in the outlier group I-Y23115. Since the time of the I-Y18331 split, samples in this subcalde have had an average of 19 mutations in comBED regions of the Y chromosome (per YFull formula, 2810 years), while all other I-Y18331 samples have had only 11.2 (1685 years). I-Y23115 samples are clearly outliers, most probably sharing a line of ancestors between the Y18331 and Y23115 levels which happened to have an accelerated mutation rate. You can even notice this on the tree, where 12 SNPs appear to have mutated between 2100 and 1100 ybp on this line, while its brotherly clade Y66192 only had 2 mutations from 2100 to 1300 ybp. Excluding Y23115 from the calculation produces an I-Y18331 MRCA of 1685 ybp, while including them grouped into one line to be averaged out with other clades produces 1699 ybp. So per YFull formula, without interferences, the MRCA should be ~1700-1800 ybp. The only way to increase reliability in this figure is to neutralize the current data skewing effect of I-Y23115, by getting more I-Y18331*, I-A2512* and I-A10959* samples on YFull. This new I-Y18331* sample is a good step towards a more balanced calculation, so the number of mutation it will have will be important.


    Of course, a MRCA of 1700-1800 ybp would not change the fact that I-Y18331 is highly diverse in the southern Balkans, and relatively rare among Slavs, so we do not need to immediately equate it with other I-Y3120 lines. But it is difficult to speak of I-Y18331 BCE Balkan migrations with only one single subclade of it (ironically, the one that is not found in the Balkans) showing >1800 ybp estimates.
    I see you joined yesterday; welcome to the forum. I am aware of the varying TMRCA dates in YFull. You might have read this older post of mine where i touch upon the very same issue of YFull's age estimation but pertaining to a different context, https://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads/26903-How-did-I2a-Din-get-to-the-Balkans/page62?p=610430&viewfull=1#post610430. Back then I-Y3120 TMRCA had changed from 2300 to 2131 ybp. By the way, i know YFull has the "NOTE: Age estimation has been taken from downstream subclade I-A2512, its age estimation is more (2100 > 1818)" but this is due to its subclade I-A10959 which has an age of 2062 ybp (2100 ybp through YFull's rounding of numbers) while I-A2512 an age of 1984 ybp (2000 ybp through YFull's rounding of numbers), and simply treats I-A2512 through the domino effect of its I-A10959 subclade, although I-A2512 lacks the respective "NOTE".

    Furthermore, i believe you got the numbers somewhat mistaken in terms of the average number of mutations because I-Y23115 has had an average of 17.98 and an age of 2656 ybp, while its sister clade I-Y66192 gives 9.75 average mutations and an age of 1468 ybp. Hence the aforementioned age of I-A10959 through (2656+1468)/2=2062 ybp. The 11.2 figure comes if we disregard the 17.98 of I-Y23115, and only count the 9.75 of I-Y66192 along with 12.66 of I-A7134 to give us (9.75+12.66)/2=11.205 and thus an age of (11.205/144.41)+60=1678.11405 (or 1700 through YFull's rounding of numbers) for I-A2512. Maybe you took another path to come to that number, which isn't that different nonetheless.

    Anyway, personally i also expect TMRCA to narrow down around the 1800 mark (as it currently stands with I-Y18331), something that we can only know for sure with additional samples; but as you also point out i don't expect this to change the fact that I-Y18331 seems to have initially diversified in the southern Balkans, complimented by the formation date of 2100 ybp (that has to do with I-Y3120's TMRCA of 2101 ybp), the highest variance of subclades being observed there, and the Jews in a general context originating from the South. I believe the migration north would have happened around 900 CE, with the respective Jews being accompanied by a relatively small number of non-Jews as well belonging to other subclades of the branch, which can also explain the few instances of Slavic and Chuvash samples in northeastern Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Demetrios View Post
    I see you joined yesterday; welcome to the forum. I am aware of the varying TMRCA dates in YFull. You might have read this older post of mine where i touch upon the very same issue of YFull's age estimation but pertaining to a different context. Back then I-Y3120 TMRCA had changed from 2300 to 2131 ybp. By the way, i know YFull has the "NOTE: Age estimation has been taken from downstream subclade I-A2512, its age estimation is more (2100 > 1818)" but this is due to its subclade I-A10959 which has an age of 2062 ybp (2100 ybp through YFull's rounding of numbers) while I-A2512 an age of 1984 ybp (2000 ybp through YFull's rounding of numbers), and simply treats I-A2512 through the domino effect of its I-A10959 subclade, although I-A2512 lacks the respective "NOTE".

    Furthermore, i believe you got the numbers somewhat mistaken in terms of the average number of mutations because I-Y23115 has had an average of 17.98 and an age of 2656 ybp, while its sister clade I-Y66192 gives 9.75 average mutations and an age of 1468 ybp. Hence the aforementioned age of I-A10959 through (2656+1468)/2=2062 ybp. The 11.2 figure comes if we disregard the 17.98 of I-Y23115, and only count the 9.75 of I-Y66192 along with 12.66 of I-A7134 to give us (9.75+12.66)/2=11.205 and thus an age of (11.205/144.41)+60=1678.11405 (or 1700 through YFull's rounding of numbers) for I-A2512. Maybe you took another path to come to that number, which isn't that different nonetheless.

    Anyway, personally i also expect TMRCA to narrow down around the 1800 mark (as it currently stands with I-Y18331), something that we can only know for sure with additional samples; but as you also point out i don't expect this to change the fact that I-Y18331 seems to have initially diversified in the southern Balkans, complimented by the formation date of 2100 ybp (that has to do with I-Y3120's TMRCA of 2101 ybp), the highest variance of subclades being observed there, and the Jews in a general context originating from the South. I believe the migration north would have happened around 900 CE, with the respective Jews being accompanied by a relatively small number of non-Jews as well belonging to other subclades of the branch, which can also explain the few instances of Slavic and Chuvash samples in northeastern Europe.


    Thank you!

    My calculations were correct. I used "corrected number of mutations" rather than simply mutations, as that is what YFull does. That way, all I-Y23115- samples have a mean of 11.25 (I guess I could have rounded to 11.3 above) mutated SNPs in comBED regions and all I-Y23115 have 19.04. I agree on the currently displayed age of I-Y18331 ultimately coming form A10959 but since it is not mentioned by YFull, I did not get into it.

    It makes little difference anyway. My point is that while some of the discussion above mentions even pre-Roman Balkan events, the current MRCA of I-Y18331 using the YFull formula is significantly younger, ~1700-1800 ybp. After the latest sample is included in calculation it may be reinforced. My own expectation is that in the long run it will stabilize around 1700 ybp.

    As for the migration and spread, it can be interpreted in several ways. If you are implying a southward migration in the II-V cent. CE, your interpretation is possible, but I would also not discard the idea of most of the Eastern Europeans of this clade simply having remained in the same region since then.

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    I believe the migration north would have happened around 900 CE, with the respective Jews being accompanied by a relatively small number of non-Jews as well belonging to other subclades of the branch, which can also explain the few instances of Slavic and Chuvash samples in northeastern Europe.[/QUOTE]

    Can you please provide us historical evidences that might corroborate and validate your proposed scenario: Jewish and non-jewish cluster I-Y23115, route toward eastern Europe, starting from Greece 900 CE (historical context & dynamic of difussion).
    Also what about Zielinski's I-Y18331* presumed jewish origin, how can it fit with the I-Y23115 cluster !?

  22. #1672
    Regular Member Demetrios's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by exercitus View Post
    I believe the migration north would have happened around 900 CE, with the respective Jews being accompanied by a relatively small number of non-Jews as well belonging to other subclades of the branch, which can also explain the few instances of Slavic and Chuvash samples in northeastern Europe.

    Can you please provide us historical evidences that might corroborate and validate your proposed scenario: Jewish and non-jewish cluster I-Y23115, route toward eastern Europe, starting from Greece 900 CE (historical context & dynamic of difussion).
    Also what about Zielinski's I-Y18331* presumed jewish origin, how can it fit with the I-Y23115 cluster !?
    This 900 migrational date is just a scenario as you pointed out, not a certainty. I did provide a historical context in the prior post where i wrote, "Brsjachka is also where we find the North Macedonian sample of Plasnica, and also as shared in prior posts where we also find the ancient synagogue of Stobi, which might explain the Jewish members of the clade with a TMRCA of 1100 ybp (or 900 CE). In Wikipedia there is also an obscure quote saying that one part of the same tribe also settled in Brest, Belarus, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berziti, but i don't know what to make of it. This can explain the northeastern European distribution of the Jewish subclade? Don't know, just a thought.". The Wikipedia quote from the link above treats Berziti as beginning their migration from northeastern Europe, but the migration of Berziti is hypothesized to have taken place in the 9th century, per the archaeological work of Ivan Mikulcic who doesn't find any Slavic related artifacts on the territory of modern North Macedonia up to the middle 9th century, and it seems to have began from the Thessalian Slavs of Belzetia who are dated between the late 7th and 8th centuries CE. From Wikipedia, "The area of Belzetia, which was also located in Greece and is mentioned as the area ruled by Akameros in c. 799, most likely does not derive from the Belegezites, but rather from the related Slavic tribe of the Berzites." (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belegezites). By the way, Brest is first mentioned in records in 1019 CE, which would compliment the 9th century migration of Berziti from Thessaly better than a 7th century migration to Brest and the south Balkans from northeastern Europe.

    As for the Jewish context, Brest was also a famous center of Jewish scholarship, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Brisk_...itchik_dynasty, and in fact in the medieval grand duchy of Lithuania, from the 14th to the 17th centuries, in particular after the union of Poland and Lithuania in 1569, it was the main center of Lithuanian Jews. Although first records of them in the city trace to 1341-1382 CE, i wouldn't exclude their presence in the region some centuries earlier. Something else that could corroborate a migration around 900 CE is also the TMRCA of Y158862 which has the two Slavic samples from Ukraine and Russia, as well as the two Pella samples in Greece, and is 1150 ybp (around 850 CE).

    By the way, I-Y23115 is an exclusively Jewish branch. I already informed you of that some days ago. It seems to have some 30 samples below it, although many are still presumed Y23115 (already A10959+). In any case all are Jewish, with the exception i believe of one sample who was Slavic but had some memory of a Jewish past. I am not sure of that last one, i believe it was mentioned in this thread some months ago, maybe i am wrong.

    Regarding Zielinski, we still don't know if he has Jewish background or not. He might not for all we know. It's just that Zielinski is a common Jewish surname (just like it is also Slavic) and we also have plenty of Jewish samples under I-Y18331 located in the broader region. If he is Jewish, it would suggest that we might have a new Jewish branch that accompanied I-Y23115 north. I have been trying to reach him through two FTDNA group admins, with the first not having him on record, while the second having him but hasn't replied back after two weeks of contacting him. Next step will be to reach out to Zdenko from the I2a Y-Haplogroup project. I did send him an email a little more than two weeks ago asking him whether Zielinski was indeed from Poland, but i didn't ask whether he had Jewish background or whether he could bring me in contact with him.

  23. #1673
    Regular Member Demetrios's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Çerç View Post

    Thank you!

    My calculations were correct. I used "corrected number of mutations" rather than simply mutations, as that is what YFull does. That way, all I-Y23115- samples have a mean of 11.25 (I guess I could have rounded to 11.3 above) mutated SNPs in comBED regions and all I-Y23115 have 19.04. I agree on the currently displayed age of I-Y18331 ultimately coming form A10959 but since it is not mentioned by YFull, I did not get into it.

    It makes little difference anyway. My point is that while some of the discussion above mentions even pre-Roman Balkan events, the current MRCA of I-Y18331 using the YFull formula is significantly younger, ~1700-1800 ybp. After the latest sample is included in calculation it may be reinforced. My own expectation is that in the long run it will stabilize around 1700 ybp.

    As for the migration and spread, it can be interpreted in several ways. If you are implying a southward migration in the II-V cent. CE, your interpretation is possible, but I would also not discard the idea of most of the Eastern Europeans of this clade simply having remained in the same region since then.
    You are welcome.

    To consider a 2nd-5th century southward migration, i would need to see a much higher frequency of early non-Jewish samples in the north (as well as the TMRCA of I-Y18331 actually narrowing down to the 1700-1800 ybp). Right now such samples lack, but Zielinski could be a start. I still don't know anything about his background. If he has a Jewish background he won't mean much, but if he doesn't and especially if we find another non-Jewish sample sharing private mutations with him (and thus a new branch formed) in conjunction with an early TMRCA it can mean that their clade was always there and that the rest migrated southward. In such a case TMRCA of I-Y18331 will come into play again to try and assign a historical context behind the date. Of course there is always such a possibility, neither do i discard it, but only time will tell. A 3rd century scenario could be complimented via the Gothic invasions, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goths#...e_Roman_Empire. Then again, if TMRCA is indeed around the 2100 mark, it would compliment Bastarnae. There are many possibilities still in play.

    Anyway, I-Y3120 TMRCA (and thus its branches' formation) and the historical context behind each date is also of importance in all of these. Hence why i have considered Celts (based on the 2300 TMRCA) and Bastarnae (based on the 2200-2100 TMRCA). Interestingly enough, the current TMRCA of I-Y3120 currently stands at 2101 ybp, and it would actually be higher if it wasn't for the unusual 1578 figure of I-Z17855. Without it and by considering just the rest of the four who are all above 2089 we would get a TMRCA (and thus formation date of the branches) of (2089+2326+2268+2248)/4=2232.75 or 2233, which would give enough time for some of the subclades to form and remain in the north, but also time to partake in the Bastarnae migration south during 179-168 BCE. The reason i like Bastarnae so much is because they participated in the Slavic ethnogenesis (in northeastern Europe) and we also have records of them migrating to the south Balkans by invitation of Macedon, therefore an ideal proxy of the clade. There are plenty of possibilities to consider but we need more data to come to safe conclusions. It goes without saying that all scenarios are on the table and we shouldn't disregard any of them.

  24. #1674
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    Reasonably accurate MRCA estimates would help us to better deduce which population brought Y18331 into Greece/south Balkans.

    Based on Y18331’s variance, it looks like the haplogroup has been in Greece for a reasonably long time.

    Another study came out showing that south Balkan populations are close to Anatolian/European Neolithic farmer samples. There must have been continuous pre-existing populations into whom newcomers like Y18331 males and others assimilated, if regional Neolithic genes survived so well. Of course we have very few post-Mycenaean, pre-Medieval samples (just Empuries, to my knowledge), but it would be expected that they will also have affinity to the farmers.
    69322840-6989-404D-B205-7C96E08455BB.jpg

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    I'm surprised that Paleolithic continuity is getting such a strong hearing so far. I have a strong feeling that an ancestor clade of I2a-Din passed through the Balkans or at least the Carpathian Basin, quite possibly I* or early I2* or I2a* or even IJ. But I2a-Din is waaay down the SNP tree, with none of its cousin clades having their centers of diversity in the Balkans. Looking at Nordtvedt's tree makes it clear how young the clade is. And the "S" cluster, which is more common in the Balkans than the "N" cluster, is even younger than the clade as a whole.

    So Paleolithic continuity requires either: (1) The STR dating is unreliable to the point of being junk, and the date is wrong nearly tenfold. Or (2) a massive bottleneck down to clusters N and S by ca. 2500 years ago, followed by an expansion of only N outside of the Balkans, followed by another bottleneck of S, which then expanded in the Classical Age or later (maybe with the Illyrians)? (1) seems very unlikely to me and (2) doesn't seem to fit what we know about the history of the region or the other haplogroups in the region.

    What migration pattern does fit the cluster dating? Well, an expansion out of a small subset of an expanding population from the North during the 1st millennium CE would fit it. Sounds like the Slavs, or at least a Southerly subset of them that mixed with I2a-Din people who could have been there well before the R1a carriers.
    slavic basketball player .jpgThe Balkans by the seas have been one of the major refugia and corridors and Slavs average among the tallest in the world so yeah that could indicate some I2a continuity. Lots of Megaliths (see Black Sea Megalithic Bow) too, which as we know spread via both land and sea via I2a. Sea people, yeah they supposedly consisted at least partly of escaped slaves / maybe Slavs

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