Where did R1b L51 originate?

[Pip]

It might be worth revisiting this question, as further data is emerging all the time.

What is recognised as R1b-L51 is actually a combination of five or six L51-equivalent SNPs that would have arisen over a substantial period of time, rather than originating at a single point in time. As such, the formation of L51 is best understood as line of ancestry that emerged over several hundred years across a swathe of land in which each of these ancestors would have roamed. If some or all of the bearers of formative L51 were nomadic pastoralists, hunter gatherers, traders, opportunists and/or mercenaries, then the area over which L51 'originated' could have been huge.

The data also suggests that early L51 is a lineage that struggled to survive and develop, so there is likely to be little trace of it in ancient samples until certain of its subclades flourished several centuries after its formative process had completed.

Based on yDNA, mtDNA and autosomal DNA, both ancient and modern, I would estimate that L51 was formative over the whole arc of land from Poland in the North East to the Carpathians/Dniester/Danube in the South East to Southern Germany & Northern France in the West. I will summarise my reasoning in a later post.

 

[markod]

It might be worth revisiting this question, as further data is emerging all the time.

What is recognised as R1b-L51 is actually a combination of five or six L51-equivalent SNPs that would have arisen over a substantial period of time, rather than originating at a single point in time. As such, the formation of L51 is best understood as line of ancestry that emerged over several hundred years across a swathe of land in which each of these ancestors would have roamed. If some or all of the bearers of formative L51 were nomadic pastoralists, hunter gatherers, traders, opportunists and/or mercenaries, then the area over which L51 'originated' could have been huge.

The data also suggests that early L51 is a lineage that struggled to survive and develop, so there is likely to be little trace of it in ancient samples until certain of its subclades flourished several centuries after its formative process had completed.

Based on yDNA, mtDNA and autosomal DNA, both ancient and modern, I would estimate that L51 was formative over the whole arc of land from Poland in the North East to the Carpathians/Dniester/Danube in the South East to Southern Germany & Northern France in the West. I will summarise my reasoning in a later post.

Under the current model L51 or its immediate predecessor must have developed on the steppe or in the early offshoots of Yamnaya in Romania, Bulgaria and surroundings. Had it arisen in Central Europe an association with the initial IE expansion would be unlikely.

 

[Pip]

I agree that DNA evidence indicates L51's predecessor most likely developed on the Steppe, and that either formative L51 itself or a close relative probably had a presence in Romania and Bulgaria. The data I have seen would suggest a developmental route commencing in North Eastern Europe (most likely Poland), and moving via the Romanian Carpathians, Danube and Upper Rhine to emerge fully formed in Northern France. I have nothing to say about IE or any other groups of languages that might have been spoken.

The basal branches of L51 and many of its sub-branches each coalesce to an estimated origin point in Northern France; this is unlikely to be a coincidence. Yet early L51's DNA contains some heavy traces of DNA shared with Neolithic and Chalcolithic Poland, the Carpathians and the Eastern Balkans, and also to a lesser extent the Central Russian Steppe, indicating substantial contributions from a variety of Eastern gene pools.

I will precis some of the data analysis when I get a bit more time.

 

[bicicleur 2]

I agree that DNA evidence indicates L51's predecessor most likely developed on the Steppe, and that either formative L51 itself or a close relative probably had a presence in Romania and Bulgaria. The data I have seen would suggest a developmental route commencing in North Eastern Europe (most likely Poland), and moving via the Romanian Carpathians, Danube and Upper Rhine to emerge fully formed in Northern France. I have nothing to say about IE or any other groups of languages that might have been spoken.

The basal branches of L51 and many of its sub-branches each coalesce to an estimated origin point in Northern France; this is unlikely to be a coincidence. Yet early L51's DNA contains some heavy traces of DNA shared with Neolithic and Chalcolithic Poland, the Carpathians and the Eastern Balkans, and also to a lesser extent the Central Russian Steppe, indicating substantial contributions from a variety of Eastern gene pools.

I will precis some of the data analysis when I get a bit more time.

check the paper on Bell Beaker DNA

 

[Pip]

There are a number of papers providing data on different aspects of Bell Beaker DNA.

The data that I have seen suggests:
1. Early R1b-L51 was almost exclusively North West European,
2. Its best fit core mtDNA is Polish and Carpathian Neolithic/Chalcolithic (with lesser amounts of Northern French and Central Russian Neolithic/Chalcolithic), and
3. Its best fit autosomal DNA is Chalcolithic Bulgarian and South Eastern Baltic.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

There are a number of papers providing data on different aspects of Bell Beaker DNA.

The data that I have seen suggests:
1. Early R1b-L51 was almost exclusively North West European,
2. Its best fit core mtDNA is Polish and Carpathian Neolithic/Chalcolithic (with lesser amounts of Northern French and Central Russian Neolithic/Chalcolithic), and
3. Its best fit autosomal DNA is Chalcolithic Bulgarian and South Eastern Baltic.

The Chalcolithic Bulgarian part is what interests me most - I personally imagine pre-L51 and pre-Z2103 splitting somewhere in the Balkans, or maybe Anatolia, with pre-L51 travelling (perhaps by sea) to Iberia and pre-Z2103 spreading somewhat Eastwards across West Asia. L51, part of the Iberian BBs and amongst typical Megalithic folk, would then travel to Central Europe (acquiring some more Steppe-like mtDNA lineages from Corded Ware women along the way), before expanding throughout Western Europe as part of the Unetice cultural complex. Z2103 would have both remained in West Asia, but also moved up into the Steppe, and from those people Yamnaya would expand into the Balkans. This entire process would be at least at first associated with the spread of metal (L23).

 

[markod]

The Chalcolithic Bulgarian part is what interests me most - I personally imagine pre-L51 and pre-Z2103 splitting somewhere in the Balkans, or maybe Anatolia, with pre-L51 travelling (perhaps by sea) to Iberia and pre-Z2103 spreading somewhat Eastwards across West Asia. L51, part of the Iberian BBs and amongst typical Megalithic folk, would then travel to Central Europe (acquiring some more Steppe-like mtDNA lineages from Corded Ware women along the way), before expanding throughout Western Europe as part of the Unetice cultural complex. Z2103 would have both remained in West Asia, but also moved up into the Steppe, and from those people Yamnaya would expand into the Balkans. This entire process would be at least at first associated with the spread of metal (L23).

Still, the terminus ante quem for L51 is early BB with a lot of steppe admixture. What could be the explanation of the break between western BB with Late Neolithic lineages & aDNA and steppe admixed R1b-dominant beakers in the east?

 

[Pip]

The Chalcolithic Bulgarian part is what interests me most - I personally imagine pre-L51 and pre-Z2103 splitting somewhere in the Balkans, or maybe Anatolia, with pre-L51 travelling (perhaps by sea) to Iberia and pre-Z2103 spreading somewhat Eastwards across West Asia. L51, part of the Iberian BBs and amongst typical Megalithic folk, would then travel to Central Europe (acquiring some more Steppe-like mtDNA lineages from Corded Ware women along the way), before expanding throughout Western Europe as part of the Unetice cultural complex. Z2103 would have both remained in West Asia, but also moved up into the Steppe, and from those people Yamnaya would expand into the Balkans. This entire process would be at least at first associated with the spread of metal (L23).

There are indicators in DNA that some early R1b-L23 flirted with Northern Iberia. It fits other data better as Z2103* or L23*, but looks to have moved westwards approximately contemporaneously with L51, so it probably took the same route westwards with formative L51. Given early L51's mtDNA heritage, I would suggest this was most likely up the Danube and North of the Alps.

 

[Pip]

Still, the terminus ante quem for L51 is early BB with a lot of steppe admixture. What could be the explanation of the break between western BB with Late Neolithic lineages & aDNA and steppe admixed R1b-dominant beakers in the east?

R1b-L23's flirtation with Iberia looks very patchy and brief; perhaps its lineage, and accordingly its Steppe admixture, did not survive to any significant degree.

The data also suggests a barely surviving Steppe-admixed L51 lineage in Northern France that developed and spawned most of the Bell Beaker communities some time later. The further North and East these people moved, the more their Steppe admixture was enhanced by contacts with other haplogroups such as R1a-M417 and R1b-Z2103.

 

[Pip]

The best fit for German R1b-L51 Bell Beaker mtDNA is 50% Carpathian Chalcolithic, plus significant elements of both Yamnayan (indicating its ancestral relationship to Eastern R1b-Z2103) and Paris Basin Neolithic (suggesting the likely point from which its most recent common ancestor emerged).

Furthermore, all of the first three surviving branches to develop from formative L51 (L52xL151, L151 and PF7589) coalesce to estimated origin points in France.

For both of these reasons, I would suggest that R1b-L51 Bell Beaker moved in on R1a-dominated Germany from the South West; although the closest y-DNA, autosomal and mtDNA matches for L51 each point to a formation process for it that most likely began in the East, probably somewhere in the vicinity of the Carpathians.

 

[Pip]

A related question is when did L51 originate?

yfull's estimate is over the period 4,100 to 3,700 BC. My estimate using different methodology gives alternative answers, depending on whether three very diverse outlier branches are included within the estimation or excluded as unrepresentative: with outliers included, the estimated age is 4,800 BC; when they are excluded, the formation period is estimated as 4,400 to 3,550 BC.

Additionally, autosomal DNA bearing a striking similarity to that of L51 Bell Beaker, but different to that of L51's brother clade Z2103, has been found in a Bulgarian sample dated to 4,600 BC.

Whichever method is used, R1b-L51 seems to long predate the R1b Bell Beaker phenomenon, which is said to have begun around 2,600 BC.