I will not resolve here the question or absolute datation of Y-R1b first arrival in Europe -
just some feelings - but maybe I missed some up-to-date intresting posts about new SNPs?
So you 'll see...
DNA-Y R1b first travels in Europe
Based on the work of Myre (I think because I only transfered the cyphers into a 'Open Office classeur' without note scrupulously the name, and others as Cruciani or Balaresque did some similar work) I made some suppositions (surely made by others yet) :
when looking at the maps of L23, L51 and L11 distributions, I am tempted to conclude :
- L11 was born yet between Caucasus and Anatolia, so the same for L51 -
- a Northern way from Caucasus could have send L23 to Russia and Ukraina : the absence of presence of L51 or/and L11 can have two sources : the mutation was new (weak %s of R1b) and died on the way, or the few people that took this way had not it (sam reason : weak %s) – I think the few Y-R1b we find today in Karelia are from these pioneers -
- a Western way went over the Bosphore to Balkans and Greece, the most of the R1b's going along the Danau river – without any proof, only a bet, I think thses ones had L51 and L11, at weak %s too -
- as very too often, more than a possibility stand in front of us : the Danau river could have seen R1B coming from Anatolia as well as from Moldavia-Western Ukraina (going along the Black Sea shores, after having left others going northwards)!
- The bulk of the Y-R1b that took foot in the Western Balkans lost there their L51/L11 or they had left them already before – they was not numerous and the % of L51/L11 was very tiny -
- the few people that reached Central Europe (Hungaria, Slovakia, Czechia) with L51/L11 surely was a bit more numerous : maybe P310 and U106 found birth there ?
- I see no direct link between Poland and Estonia, on one side, and Karelia, Bielo-Russia or Northern Russia on another side – I think the first Y-R1b that reached Southern Sweden, Denmark and Northern Germany, maybe Estonia (uneasy to date the coming of U106 in Estonia without deaper study) was coming from South-West Poland and previously from Czechia through Moravia ; they was surely rich for U-106 -
- Westwards the progression kept ahead into Southern Germany and Switzerland, and then into East-Southern France and Northern Italy (the %s don't push me to think they passed by present day Slovenia and Venetia) – surely richer for P312 -
- a two choices quiz now : Iberia was reached by France or by Sea, from Southern Italy ?Valencia (Levante) seam having been rich for L51/L11 too and South Italy is reacher in internal % L23 and L11 than North Italy even if it is poorer for L51(?!?) - the Creta richness is too a confusing thing – is a pity this study give no data for Cataluña by instance – doubful situation ! But I prefer give the first place to travel by land from South-Eastern France to Iberia for now... - the big richness of Southern Italy for L23 is easy to explain by Greeks colonization – Creta is still a mistery, for the richest region of the island today about Y-R1b is in a considered 'archaïc' region of inland South-East... perhaps the study didn't focalize on these local R1b ? - someones spoke about Italian (Venitian) late influence -
- the less « ancestral » Y-R1b according to these facts seam being Western Iberia and Northern Iberia and the Netherlands -
- some lands as Russia, Bielo-Russia, Ukraina, Croatia, Slovenia, Romania, appear to me as having received re-introduction of more recent donwstreams of Y-R1b (U106, P312 and descendants) – surely a « va-et-vient » occurred in more northern Central Europe (Danau) but there Y-R1b never disappeared and then produced its own descendants – in the Western Balkans and parts of Greece, Caucasus, Anatolia, Y-R1b vegetated until today -
the big difficulty is to date these evenments : here only appear (if I'm not too wrong) the paths and a possible relative (internal) chronologic order, no datations : the way along the Danau river could have been long enough or very short, even if we can imagine a demographic explosion a) in Central Europe – b) in the Western Alps – what is very evident is a rupture between West and East and a very impressive bottleneck in South-Eastern Europe, I think -
What I see here is the quasi impossibility for these occidental Y-R1b to be the result of a huge amount of tribes that should be numerous already before leaving the western shores of the Black Sea or the the Danau delta... I cannot figure it out ! And I don't exclude totally the possibility that some P312 (not all of them) could have navigated from the Adriatic Sea to S-W Europe...Maybe some future addition of new surveys will change my thought -
I believe that :
when speaking about small populations, by the action of hazard, the new mutated SNPs can disappear quickly (« sur-place » figure : the older SNPs survives), and that in a bigger population, with time, older SNP disappear slowly, and new SNPs can survive, giving way to a small geographic almost familial set of this bigger population to magnifiy the %s of one of its new SNPs when leaving the bulk of the population (it is the famous and sometimes too used 'wave of 'advance?) -
Now, what archeological, historical data can help to put dates for that ? Someone evoques a Neolithic possibility, or a late Mesolithic lost among Neolithic times) – I admit the male elite bias for Y chromosom, but if at bronze Age, it obliged us to figure out a small tribe of intrepid male warriors subjuging huge populations of affraid wives on their road,
in concurrence with bigger tribes and upon very more numerous invaded populations: no too easy -
on an other side if P312 was born in Central Danau and around, it could have given birth to well separate downstreams of itself, some going by land, other by sea (Mediterranea) ???
...