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View Poll Results: LGM refugium of origin for I2? What say you?!

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  • Franco-Iberian refuge

    8 23.53%
  • Italian peninsula

    5 14.71%
  • lower Rhone

    4 11.76%
  • Balkan peninsula

    18 52.94%
  • Ukrainian LGM refuge (north/northwest Black Sea shoreline region)

    9 26.47%
  • Anatolia

    2 5.88%
  • (North) Caucasus

    3 8.82%
  • Other -- please articulate

    2 5.88%
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Thread: The Official "I2 LGM refugium of origin" poll -- Let the debate begin !

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    The Official "I2 LGM refugium of origin" poll -- Let the debate begin !

    My understanding is that I2 originated during the Late Paleolithic some 22,000 years ago.

    The LGM refugium of origin for I2 is still up for scholarly debate (around here it seems to be quite lively), but likely candidates are:

    --Franco-Iberian refuge

    --Italian peninsula
    --lower Rhone

    --Balkan peninsula
    --Ukrainian LGM refuge (north / northwest Black Sea shoreline region)
    --Anatolia
    --(North) Caucasus
    --who the hell knows! (the facts are confusing and conflicting)

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    I went with Franco-Iberian (IMHO a good guess for I2a-L460) and Italian Peninsula (IMHO a good guess for I2b-L415 and I2c-L596). Both, of course, are far from certain. The ground is pretty shaky for placing I2a-L460 in the Franco-Iberian refuge, but at least we see tremendous diversity of it right around the distribution of the successor Magdalenian culture. The ground is even shakier placing the others in the Italian Peninsula, since they have a weird split-diversity pattern on both sides of the Alps. Hopefully we get some ancient samples one day.

    Was there a major LGM refuge in the Lower Rhone, by the way? I haven't heard of it. It seems that the cultures that followed the LGM, the Magdalenian and the Epigravettian, avoided that region, and we find their remains on either side of it.

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    The origin of Gravettian is seen as a more complex process than was thought before, involving an impact of industries with backed blades and bladelets from the eastern Mediterranean (Ahmarian, Lagaman, Dabba, beginning before 40 ky BP). After its establishment in Europe, the Danubian Gravettian is ordered into earlier Pavlovian stage (30-25 ky BP), concentrated in the Austrian-Moravian-South Polish corridor, and later Willendorf-Kostenkian stage (25-20 ky BP), widely dispersed over central and eastern Europe. The Epigravettian, termed Kasovian (after 20 ky BP), should be clearly separated from the earlier Gravettian stock (the radiocarbon datings used through this paper are uncalibrated). Finally, this paper gives examples of complex analyses of a typical large settlement (Pavlov I – Southeast) and of a burial site (Predmostí).
    http://paleo.revues.org/607


    http://quartaer.eu/pdfs/2009/2009_nuzhnyi.pdf

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    I went with Franco-Iberian (IMHO a good guess for I2a-L460) and Italian Peninsula (IMHO a good guess for I2b-L415 and I2c-L596). Both, of course, are far from certain. The ground is pretty shaky for placing I2a-L460 in the Franco-Iberian refuge, but at least we see tremendous diversity of it right around the distribution of the successor Magdalenian culture. The ground is even shakier placing the others in the Italian Peninsula, since they have a weird split-diversity pattern on both sides of the Alps. Hopefully we get some ancient samples one day.

    Was there a major LGM refuge in the Lower Rhone, by the way? I haven't heard of it. It seems that the cultures that followed the LGM, the Magdalenian and the Epigravettian, avoided that region, and we find their remains on either side of it.

    there were only 3 refugia in Europe : Franco-Iberian , Italian/Adriatic and coastal Greece (Franchtti cave etc.)

    only the Franco-Iberian was very expansive
    there was the Magdalenian and Ahrensburg short after LGM - these were tundra reindeer hunters going up north from southern France
    but there where also Sauveterrian and Tardenoisian coming out of southern France after the youngest dryas (12600 - 11700 ) and after the forests started to regrow in Europe - these were hunter-gatherers in the forest

    if you look at the expansion times of the subclades of I2 , you'd think these were the hunter-gatherers in the forest , not the earlier reindeer hunters
    i'd say all reindeer hunter tribes went extinct - except 1 which could convert itself up north : I1

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kurgan View Post
    My understanding is that I2 originated during the Late Paleolithic some 22,000 years ago.

    The LGM refugium of origin for I2 is still up for scholarly debate (around here it seems to be quite lively), but likely candidates are:

    --Franco-Iberian refuge

    --Italian peninsula
    --lower Rhone

    --Balkan peninsula
    --Ukrainian LGM refuge (north / northwest Black Sea shoreline region)
    --Anatolia
    --(North) Caucasus
    --who the hell knows! (the facts are confusing and conflicting)
    I think I2 allready split into its main branches before LGM
    Therefore I vote for all 3 refugia I know of :

    --Franco-Iberian refuge
    --Italian peninsula
    --lower Rhone is connected to / the same as
    Franco-Iberian refuge
    --Balkan peninsula : only coastal Greece

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    I think I2 allready split into its main branches before LGM
    Therefore I vote for all 3 refugia I know of
    Do you figure any particular I2 branch as being in Greece during the LGM? None seem particularly diverse there nowadays. Maybe if we count extinct branches? Or maybe the diversity pattern has shifted a lot over time?

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    There might be one refuge hidden under North Adriatic. Half of Adriatic bottom was exposed during LGM. A very nice fertile lowland by the sea.
    Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    There might be one refuge hidden under North Adriatic. Half of Adriatic bottom was exposed during LGM. A very nice fertile lowland by the sea.
    I was thinking the same thing - Balkans Peninsula but not Greece. Underwater archeology, anyone?

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    Do you figure any particular I2 branch as being in Greece during the LGM? None seem particularly diverse there nowadays. Maybe if we count extinct branches? Or maybe the diversity pattern has shifted a lot over time?
    Maybe they all went extinct, but I have another theory.
    Maybe I2a1a-CTS595 originates from that refugium. (that would mean that they are some 25 % older than Nortvedts estimates)
    They would have come along with G2a to Sardinia and later also the lower Rhone (France) as farmers.
    First contact between I2a1a and G2a would have been 13000 years ago, when obsidian from Melos arrived in Franchtti cave.
    Also some seeds from Asia arrived in the Franchtti cave.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    RCO:"You can find small pockets of haplogroup I in the last paper of Julie di Cristofaro: Afghan Hindu Kush: Where Eurasian Sub-Continent Gene Flows Converge. Basal types of J and I from Iran and Central Asia can have a very interesting history and they can have complete new sequences of whole Y-DNA, completely different from the Western European cases."

    http://www.plosone.org/article/fetch...e.0076748.s007

    Igmayka:On a finer scale, a modern Russian individual (HGDP00887) was found to share high similarity with the Loschbour individual.

    http://dienekes.blogspot.se/2014/04/...-skoglund.html

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    The Official "I2 LGM refugium of origin" poll
    Official?

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    Quote Originally Posted by gyms View Post
    RCO:"You can find small pockets of haplogroup I in the last paper of Julie di Cristofaro: Afghan Hindu Kush: Where Eurasian Sub-Continent Gene Flows Converge. Basal types of J and I from Iran and Central Asia can have a very interesting history and they can have complete new sequences of whole Y-DNA, completely different from the Western European cases."

    http://www.plosone.org/article/fetch...e.0076748.s007
    If the quoted text is related to the linked spreadsheet, it looks like the "basal" I is probably just I1, since they only tested for I2 SNPs. If they had tested for I1 and that also came up negative, this result would be more interesting. As is, it seems that they found an I, probably I1 in a single Hazara individual. OK...

    EDIT: Nevermind, just found the paper and saw that it includes STRs, and the individual in question has an STR profile that bears no resemblance to I1, so he is indeed probably I*! First I've ever seen, thanks. Probably not relevant to this thread in particular, but worth additional investigation...

    Quote Originally Posted by gyms View Post
    Igmayka:On a finer scale, a modern Russian individual (HGDP00887) was found to share high similarity with the Loschbour individual.

    http://dienekes.blogspot.se/2014/04/...-skoglund.html
    Since the second-closest group in the Lazaridis paper's tree includes big cluster of Sardinians, presumably I2-M26 folk, I haven't read too much into this. More details are necessary to come to any real conclusions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    If the quoted text is related to the linked spreadsheet, it looks like the "basal" I is probably just I1, since they only tested for I2 SNPs. If they had tested for I1 and that also came up negative, this result would be more interesting. As is, it seems that they found an I, probably I1 in a single Hazara individual. OK...

    EDIT: Nevermind, just found the paper and saw that it includes STRs, and the individual in question has an STR profile that bears no resemblance to I1, so he is indeed probably I*! First I've ever seen, thanks. Probably not relevant to this thread in particular, but worth additional investigation...



    Since the second-closest group in the Lazaridis paper's tree includes big cluster of Sardinians, presumably I2-M26 folk, I haven't read too much into this. More details are necessary to come to any real conclusions.
    http://archiver.rootsweb.ancestry.co...-08/1409250465

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    In that thread, it seems like Nordtvedt wants SNPs before committing to the precise location of this I* on the phylogeny.

    One thing that the I* sample reminded me of was the IJ* sample found in a Persian in Grugni 2012. Hazara and Persians are extremely closely related, so it would make sense if the I* from the Hazara was actually on the same branch as the IJ* from the Persian. Indeed, I checked which SNPs were being tested to represent "I," and they were different in the two studies: the Hazara was tested for M258 and got a positive, while the Persian was tested for M170 and got a negative. If M258 is the more ancient mutation, then these two could in fact be very closely related, and together represent the same branch of proto-I. If my guess is right, then since M170 is the canonical mutation of Haplogroup I, then these both may in fact be not I but IJ, on the same M258+ branch as Haplogroup I, as opposed to the M258- branch (J).

    Speculation aside, I'm hoping for more detailed study of these rare basal clades in the future. They may not pinpoint where Haplogroup I was during the LGM, but could help us understand its earliest movements into Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    In that thread, it seems like Nordtvedt wants SNPs before committing to the precise location of this I* on the phylogeny.

    One thing that the I* sample reminded me of was the IJ* sample found in a Persian in Grugni 2012. Hazara and Persians are extremely closely related, so it would make sense if the I* from the Hazara was actually on the same branch as the IJ* from the Persian. Indeed, I checked which SNPs were being tested to represent "I," and they were different in the two studies: the Hazara was tested for M258 and got a positive, while the Persian was tested for M170 and got a negative. If M258 is the more ancient mutation, then these two could in fact be very closely related, and together represent the same branch of proto-I. If my guess is right, then since M170 is the canonical mutation of Haplogroup I, then these both may in fact be not I but IJ, on the same M258+ branch as Haplogroup I, as opposed to the M258- branch (J).

    Speculation aside, I'm hoping for more detailed study of these rare basal clades in the future. They may not pinpoint where Haplogroup I was during the LGM, but could help us understand its earliest movements into Europe.
    if these are representatives of some proto-I it would mean I in Europe is the consequence of migration from outside and not some evolution inside Europe

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    if these are representatives of some proto-I it would mean I in Europe is the consequence of migration from outside and not some evolution inside Europe
    Or perhaps IJ migrated into Europe and evolved into I.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aberdeen View Post
    Or perhaps IJ migrated into Europe and evolved into I.
    Exactly, it wouldn't resolve whether I formed in Europe or Asia, but it would help anchor where the proto-I branch of IJ once was.

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    This is easy ...all mayor 3.For Haplo I was Iberian and Balkan.Maps for Ice shows this perfectly.Ukrainian was important for Haplo R.Haplo I populated Ukraine area after the big melting 8750 bc see Tripolje genesis via linear culture.Balkan area has been proven to be refuge by finds like Badanj Cave

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    I start to think that I2c is an underestimate ancient haplogroup. Is modern distribution is around Black Sea, Caucasus, North Iran, and its found in Yamna Culture, maybe I2c was some kind of ancient EHG or CHG signal ? We need sample for ancient north caucasus regio. Maybe their was a blend in late Paleolithic with Central Europe I2 Y-Dna / U5b Mtdna and R1b hunter gatherers from circum-black sea ( i say circum black-sea , because the history of R1b ifeets with north or south of the black sea, so circum black sea can be, balkans, pontic steppe, north anatolia, caucasus, kuma manych depression or all of them in a moment of history.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    It's a pointless debate since I2 was surely found all over Europe as well as in northwest Anatolia and the North Caucasus before the LGM. Therefore it would have been found in all the regions listed in the poll during the LGM.
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    Right, so probably more important is in what refugium they survived or what refugium was first to repopulated Europe again.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    Right, so probably more important is in what refugium they survived or what refugium was first to repopulated Europe again.
    I am not sure that's the most important question since we have seen from Mesolithic samples like Loschbour and Motala that many I2, and even I2a1a and I2a1b samples belonged to subclades that are now extinct or extremely rare. There were surely dozens if not hundreds of I* and I2 subclades in postglacial Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Europe, but those that survived best to this day were those that were assimilated to Neolithic farmers, and especially to Proto-Indo-European Steppe people. Over 90% of I2 in Slavic countries today belong to the I2a1b-L147.2 (aka CTS10228, CTS2180 or Y3111) subclade, which is thought to have arisen 5,600 years ago, just before the Yamna period. These lucky few I2a1b-L147.2 became assimilated benefited from the PIE expansion, and much mater from the Slavic expansion, which saw an explosion of that lineage, especially in the Balkans and the Dinaric Alps. That's why people who just look at the modern distribution map can easily believe that I2a1b originated in and re-exapnded from the Balkans, but that is not the case.

    It's easier to understand what happened in post-LGM Europe when looking at the rarer I2c. I2c1 seems to have been in central Europe, while I2c2 would have been around the Black Sea, including in Anatolia and the Caucasus. The two branches have kept very different geographic distributions ever since.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    I am not sure that's the most important question since we have seen from Mesolithic samples like Loschbour and Motala that many I2, and even I2a1a and I2a1b samples belonged to subclades that are now extinct or extremely rare. There were surely dozens if not hundreds of I* and I2 subclades in postglacial Palaeolithic and Mesolithic Europe, but those that survived best to this day were those that were assimilated to Neolithic farmers, and especially to Proto-Indo-European Steppe people. Over 90% of I2 in Slavic countries today belong to the I2a1b-L147.2 (aka CTS10228, CTS2180 or Y3111) subclade, which is thought to have arisen 5,600 years ago, just before the Yamna period. These lucky few I2a1b-L147.2 became assimilated benefited from the PIE expansion, and much mater from the Slavic expansion, which saw an explosion of that lineage, especially in the Balkans and the Dinaric Alps. That's why people who just look at the modern distribution map can easily believe that I2a1b originated in and re-exapnded from the Balkans, but that is not the case.

    It's easier to understand what happened in post-LGM Europe when looking at the rarer I2c. I2c1 seems to have been in central Europe, while I2c2 would have been around the Black Sea, including in Anatolia and the Caucasus. The two branches have kept very different geographic distributions ever since.
    No doubt about this. Success of many HGs haplogroups depended on "hitchhiking a ride" with farming societies. However the question at hand is about one time frame. Were where I2 in general, or in specific clades, during LGM.
    I never voted in this pole though. I think there were few refuge places, which helped bottlenecking, selection and founder affected lucky surviving subclades.

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    2 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    No doubt about this. Success of many HGs haplogroups depended on "hitchhiking a ride" with farming societies. However the question at hand is about one time frame. Were where I2 in general, or in specific clades, during LGM.
    I never voted in this pole though. I think there were few refuge places, which helped bottlenecking, selection and founder affected lucky surviving subclades.
    If the question only concerns I2, then the answer is in all LGM refugia. Even north of the Black Sea considering that I2a2a-L699 was found in Yamna, and in the North Caucasus, considering the presence of I2c2 in that region today (but not in Europe proper).

    BTW, haplogroup I2's TMRCA is about 21,500 years, which fits right within the LGM (c. 26,500 to 20,000 ybp). Both I2a and I2c were formed around 21,500 years ago too, and top subclades of I2a like I2a1a-CTS595, I2a1b-M423 and I2a2-M436 all existed before the end of the LGM. The post-LGM re-expansion coincides with the appearance of deeper I2a subclades like I2a2a1-M26, I2a1b1-L161.1, I2a2a-M223, I2a2b-L38, etc. Therefore it would be more useful to try to determine from where each of these subclades re-expanded. But it is not that easy as even those top clades were probably very scattered all over the continent. How else to explain that I2a2a-M223 showed up in Early Neolithic Spain and in Yamna? There must have been M223 tribes at least in the Franco-Cantabrian refugium and the Black Sea refugium.

    In summary:

    - I2a1a-CTS595 would have been present at least in the Franco-Cantabrian refugium
    - I2a1b-M423 would have been present in the Franco-Cantabrian refugium, and perhaps also in the Balkans or Black Sea refugia.
    - I2a2-M436 and I2a2a-M223 would have been present at least in the Franco-Cantabrian refugium and the Black Sea refugium.
    - I2c would have been present at least in the Anatolian and North Caucasus refugia, as well as another on in Europe, possibly Italy.

    Not sure where I1 was, but I'd say in the Balkans refugium based on the fact that it was in Hungary when Neolithic farmers arrived. However hunter-gatherers were very mobile, and 12,000 years elapsed from the end of the LGM to the arrival of Neolithic farmers, so it may not mean anything.
    Last edited by Maciamo; 03-12-16 at 21:27.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post

    Not sure where I1 was, but I'd say in the Balkans refugium based on the fact that it was in Hungary when Neolithic farmers arrived. However hunter-gatherers were very mobile, and over 14,000 years elapsed from the end of the LGM to the arrival of Neolithic farmers, so it may not mean anything.
    Exactly, they could have crisscrossed Europe many times since LGM to Neolithic, and go through many extinctions and expansions. Most likely the Younger Dryas played final and pivotal role for surviving in refugia and final expansion of lucky clades of hunter gatherers. It will be interesting to see one day a snapshot of HGs distribution at year 10,000 BC.

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