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Thread: Laz 2014 or 15 Predicting Competition

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    Laz 2014 or 15 Predicting Competition

    I'd like to make this use this thread for people to post their predictions on what Laz 2014 or 2015 will reveal as a competition. I'd suggest preparing with research for the new Laz paper.

    While asking David Reich to reveal insights he and his team have learned about the genetic-makeup of inhabitants of Samara and Karelia Russia from the Mesolithic-copper age and the contribution of the Yamna culture(believed to be the proto-Indo Europeans) to the ancestry of modern people, he told me their paper will hopefully be ready to submit in a few months, so hopefully it will be published before the spring. Because of this, I'd like to use this thread for people to post their predictions on what Laz 2014 or 2015 will reveal as a competition. I'd also suggest preparing with research for the new Laz paper.

    The tweets made about Iosif Lazaridis's 15 minute speech at ASHG revealed some important information. Such as Yamna could fit as a 50/50 mix of Mesolithic Karelians and modern Armenians, that Corded ware in Germany was ~36% Mesolithic Karelian and 73% Yamna which is more than any modern Europeans have, Yamna-related ancestry in Europe today from highest to lowest is Balts-north/central/east Europeans-south Europeans-Sardinians(who were said to have very little), South Asians are can't be model for Yamna ancestry because there are no ancient genomes(pre-Indo European) sampled yet from south Asia.

    I learned by emailing David Reich that his team has not been able to find a way to estimate the amount of ANE ancestry in Mesolithic Karelians. This means they were probably not a simple WHG-ANE mix like Mesolithic Scandinavians, but also have east Asian ancestry, which mtDMA from Karelian hunter gatherers from previous studies suggest.

    Because we know Corded ware had ~73% Yamna-related ancestry and they have more than Balts, who have ~18-20% ANE ancestry(assuming, Reich's model assumes all ANE in Europe is from Yamna), this means Yamna had at least 25-30% ANE, and that Karelian HGs had at least around 50% ANE. Also, because Yamna could fit as 50% modern Aremians, they would score well over 50% EEF(Armenians have more basal Eurasian than Stuttgart) in Laz terms. There's room for 10-30% WHG(In Laz terms), and there's a chance they had less than 10%(In Laz terms).

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    I hope they will also analayze a full genome of a Neolithic farmer from the Fertile crescent and/or Anatolia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    I learned by emailing David Reich that his team has not been able to find a way to estimate the amount of ANE ancestry in Mesolithic Karelians. This means they were probably not a simple WHG-ANE mix like Mesolithic Scandinavians, but also have east Asian ancestry, which mtDMA from Karelian hunter gatherers from previous studies suggest.

    Because we know Corded ware had ~73% Yamna-related ancestry and they have more than Balts, who have ~18-20% ANE ancestry(assuming, Reich's model assumes all ANE in Europe is from Yamna), this means Yamna had at least 25-30% ANE, and that Karelian HGs had at least around 50% ANE. Also, because Yamna could fit as 50% modern Aremians, they would score well over 50% EEF(Armenians have more basal Eurasian than Stuttgart) in Laz terms. There's room for 10-30% WHG(In Laz terms), and there's a chance they had less than 10%(In Laz terms).
    Fire, What exactly did David Reich tell about the inability of finding ANE in the Karelian HG? I'm quite curious.

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    Karelian?

    ok if I am dump as a rhino, can you make it more simple to stupid guys like me, who did not come to class?

    plzzzzzzzzzz
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    Karelians are Finno-Permic people
    President Putin is from Russian town Tver
    The "Tverians" came from Karelia.
    Tolkien(Lord of the Rings) wrote and used some myths and songs from Karelian people for his book, (the Elvish language is Karelian-Finnic).

    But we talking about Mesolithic Karelians so....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Yetos View Post
    Karelian?

    ok if I am dump as a rhino, can you make it more simple to stupid guys like me, who did not come to class?

    plzzzzzzzzzz
    Area near the border of South-Finland. A number of mesolithic HG's have been found there.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Karelia

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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by epoch View Post
    Fire, What exactly did David Reich tell about the inability of finding ANE in the Karelian HG? I'm quite curious.
    He said they have "lots' of ANE but his team has not been able to create a model they're confident with to predict a percentage of ANE ancestry. It was evry easy for them to predict ANE in Swedish hunter gatherers, so this probably means Karelian(and also probably Samara) hunter gatherers had some type of non-west Eurasian ancestry(most likely east Asian). I guess the east Asian ancestry of eastern hunter gatherers(EHG) trickled down from Yamna to modern Europeans that it's almost impossible to identify.

    We know because of a few clues they given in the ASHG conference that the Karelian hgs were over 50% ANE, but not 100%. Remember the southern Swedish hgs were about 19% ANE and 81% WHG, late Neolithic hgs from Gotland were ~15% ANE and maybe 85% WHG, and hunter gatherers in Luxembourg, northern Spain, and Hungary were ~100% WHG. Southern Scandinavian hgs were obviously of mostly western European hg decent, with a little but of east European hg.

    Modern Europeans have decent from at least EHG(eastern) and WHG(western), mostly western. WHG throughout Europe especially in northern Europe seems to have made a huge comeback at the end of the Neolithic(it's as high as 49% in Balts). There are two Hungarian genomes separated by only 800 years the youngest is ~35-40% WHG and the oldest ~5-10% WHG, the youngest also had 5-15% ANE, while the oldest completely lacked ANE.

    Right after a WHG rise in most of Europe the Indo Europeans from the Pontiac steppe who can be fit as 50% EHG and 50% modern Armenian spread across Europe making some Europeans probably over 50% Yamna. Therefore mainland Europeans can be explained as a mix western EEF and WHG and eastern EEF and EHG.

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    I bet they find some more I2a just like every other study lol.. but on a more serious note... I hope that the 3 population theory gets debunked because just by looking at Y DNA you can tell there were many more than 3 distinct migrations of humans into Europe. I don't see why everyone thinks the ANE/WHG/EEF theory is so groundbreaking when it is just a regurgitation of a theory that has been around for 100 years by another name (Alpine/Nordic/Mediterranean).

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    Motzart, you're coming off arrogant and should suggest ideas not make big conclusions. Y DNA is just a paternal lineage. There have been multiple migrations, founder effects, whatever of Y DNA in Europe, but just about all was 100% WHG-EEF-ANE. Early European farmers were mostly G2a and Iraqis are mostly have J, but they're both mostly ENF. According to the best in the business what is called EEF-WHG-ANE can explain Europeans, and close to 100% of west Asian's blood too.

    Nordic represents northern-type which I guess when talking about skeletal features and maybe others(not pigmentation) is most like WHG. Mediterranean is defintly very similar in physical features to EEF, Sardinians are pretty much 100% EEF. EEF Hungarians though had a much higher percentage of light eyes than Sardinians and Gok2 had light eyes, and one Neolithic Hungarian had light-brownish hair and another was a carrier of a mutation known to give yellow hair.

    There are no very good representatives of ANE, and alpine defiantly is not it. In Europe ANE peaks in Balts and Finno-Urgics and Turks in NE Europe(not in the Alps), at only around 20%. Today it's overall highest in native Americans, and then next south-central Asians. The last Mal'ta-based population were Mesolithic people in east Europe and probably central Asia, but they're blood is very diluted now a days.

    Balts have over 50% European WHG and combined with related near eastern WHG, they're over 70%, so they might have some very similar facial features to Mesolithic western Europeans.

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    The Neolithic Hungarian; NE7, had I2a2a2. That's actually the 2nd I2a2 found in stone age western Europe, plus I1 and I2c have been found. I2a1-P37 was not alone at all.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    The Neolithic Hungarian; NE7, had I2a2a2. That's actually the 2nd I2a2 found in stone age western Europe, plus I1 and I2c have been found. I2a1-P37 was not alone at all.
    Try reading my post again.

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    I'm not claiming you said they all had I2a1-P37. I'm just making the point that not all had I2a1-P37.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    Motzart, you're coming off arrogant and should suggest ideas not make big conclusions. Y DNA is just a paternal lineage. There have been multiple migrations, founder effects, whatever of Y DNA in Europe, but just about all was 100% WHG-EEF-ANE. Early European farmers were mostly G2a and Iraqis are mostly have J, but they're both mostly ENF. According to the best in the business what is called EEF-WHG-ANE can explain Europeans, and close to 100% of west Asian's blood too.

    Nordic represents northern-type which I guess when talking about skeletal features and maybe others(not pigmentation) is most like WHG. Mediterranean is defintly very similar in physical features to EEF, Sardinians are pretty much 100% EEF. EEF Hungarians though had a much higher percentage of light eyes than Sardinians and Gok2 had light eyes, and one Neolithic Hungarian had light-brownish hair and another was a carrier of a mutation known to give yellow hair.

    There are no very good representatives of ANE, and alpine defiantly is not it. In Europe ANE peaks in Balts and Finno-Urgics and Turks in NE Europe(not in the Alps), at only around 20%. Today it's overall highest in native Americans, and then next south-central Asians. The last Mal'ta-based population were Mesolithic people in east Europe and probably central Asia, but they're blood is very diluted now a days.

    Balts have over 50% European WHG and combined with related near eastern WHG, they're over 70%, so they might have some very similar facial features to Mesolithic western Europeans.
    I don't think it is arrogant to suggest the 3 way model is insufficient, there is already another thread on here about a 4 way model. R1b and R1a both carried very different admixtures when they arrived in Europe (Gedrosia vs Caucauses and Siberian), so its inaccurate to lump them together under ANE. Likewise lumping G2a/J2/J1/E1b together as "EEF" is also not sufficient. G2a diverged from the rest of these groups a very long time before IJ split with K making the first Neolithic farmers to arrive in Europe probably a group worth their own designation. G2a farmers seem not to have mixed much with other humans before their arrival in EUrope because in all the European ENE finds to date we only find G2a and I. I would even guess that G2a farmers are as much diverged from the rest of the Neolithic populations as WHGs were.

    Maybe the only way a 3 way model will work is if we can sequence a Cro Magnon to contrast against Malta, Afonta Gora, and Ust-Ishim. Then we can see what they have in common and what they both lack and define the lacking as EEF. I don't think it will ever work from analyzing admixture in Neolithic and Bronze age samples though, with these there is no certainty.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    The Neolithic Hungarian; NE7, had I2a2a2. That's actually the 2nd I2a2 found in stone age western Europe, plus I1 and I2c have been found. I2a1-P37 was not alone at all.
    he is 70% EEF
    Y-Haplogroup is I-L1228
    Mtdna = N1a


    close ....I am 69,4 EEF
    có che un pòpoło no 'l defende pi ła só łéngua el xe prónto par èser s'ciavo

    when a people no longer dares to defend its language it is ripe for slavery.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    The Neolithic Hungarian; NE7, had I2a2a2. That's actually the 2nd I2a2 found in stone age western Europe, plus I1 and I2c have been found. I2a1-P37 was not alone at all.
    Very interesting about NE7, I hadn't seen that yet. Where does it say that? Are we talking SNP L1228? That's a pretty rare one.

    By the way, I've pretty much given up on the idea that we can say with any confidence that Ajvide 52 was I2a2a1, as Genetiker says. The defining SNP, CTS616, has come up as a false positive for both KO1 and IR1, which indicates that we can't rely on it at all. And CTS616 is pretty much all we had to go on for Ajvide 52. So I'm thinking that NE7 may be the first I2a2 found in stone age western Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by sparkey View Post
    Very interesting about NE7, I hadn't seen that yet. Where does it say that? Are we talking SNP L1228? That's a pretty rare one.

    By the way, I've pretty much given up on the idea that we can say with any confidence that Ajvide 52 was I2a2a1, as Genetiker says. The defining SNP, CTS616, has come up as a false positive for both KO1 and IR1, which indicates that we can't rely on it at all. And CTS616 is pretty much all we had to go on for Ajvide 52. So I'm thinking that NE7 may be the first I2a2 found in stone age western Europe.
    It seems Felix is re-running all the old ancient finds in his site....Ajvide52 was re-run and I notice he has placed it as
    Ajvide52 Sweden Male HIJK-F929 HV0a 5000 years


    NE7 below

    http://www.fc.id.au/search/label/Genealogy

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    My guesses:

    1) some trace components are messing with the results: some African traces in some EEF and some in WHG along the south and west coasts confusing the signal between those two and also some East Asian traces in some WHG and in some ANE (with the trace in WHG coming into the Baltic from the north rather than the east imo) confusing the signal between the ANE and WHG them on the northern and eastern edges

    2) ANE originally represented a widely spread HG population that existed over a wide range and although one segment of that group became the IE and spread dramatically over most of that range some of the surviving ANE scattered around northern Eurasia dates from before that event so there is both an IE version of ANE and a pre-IE version.

    3) R1b and R1a partly representing two different waves

    4) There's a Cucuteni shaped piece missing in the current model

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    The new Laz paper should be out around Christmas time. I miss interpreted Riech, he said in another email(to someone else) it should be published in a couple months at biorXiv. I don't think you guys realize how big of a deal this paper is. Think about it if you predicted correctly about their what this new paper will revel, you can hold on to that for the rest of your life. The years and years and years and years and years of debating about PIE genetics will pretty much be over a few months, and you only have that amount of time to be correct about them. The Indo European language family is one of the biggest deals and mysteries in human history, and it's spread was an incredible phenomenon.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    The new Laz paper should be out around Christmas time. I miss interpreted Riech, he said in another email(to someone else) it should be published in a couple months at biorXiv. I don't think you guys realize how big of a deal this paper is. Think about it if you predicted correctly about their what this new paper will revel, you can hold on to that for the rest of your life. The years and years and years and years and years of debating about PIE genetics will pretty much be over a few months, and you only have that amount of time to be correct about them. The Indo European language family is one of the biggest deals and mysteries in human history, and it's spread was an incredible phenomenon.
    I predict it only covers part of the story. The Satem IE (r1a) story. I think Yamna was ancestor for Slavs, Balts, Indo-Iranians.
    Through Corded it also impacted Germanic.

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    Quote Originally Posted by arvistro View Post
    I predict it only covers part of the story. The Satem IE (r1a) story. I think Yamna was ancestor for Slavs, Balts, Indo-Iranians.
    Through Corded it also impacted Germanic.
    R1a would undoubtedly be the primary haplotype of the more northern contribution to the Yamna mix - I don't know whether EHG would be accurate but I certainly dislike the term "Mesolithic Karelian" because the Karelians are a modern linguistic group whose proto-language probably didn't yet exist at that point. However, there is also the Armenian part, and modern Armenian Y DNA consists of about 28% R1b (but not the European subclades), 22% J2, 11% J1, 11% J2, 11% G and a number of other types. I'm going to go out on a limb and suggest that the three most common Yamna Y DNA types, in descending order, will be R1a, J2 and G2. I'd consider R1a to almost certainly be the most common. The other two are likely to be there but I don't know in what frequency and I admit there could also be R1b, J1 and T, but I'm going to go with J2 and G2 being the second and third most common.

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    Aberdeen people call La Brana-1 a Mesolithic Spaniard even though the Spanish language began to evolve 5,000 years after him. It's used for geographical reasons.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Fire Haired14 View Post
    Aberdeen people call La Brana-1 a Mesolithic Spaniard even though the Spanish language began to evolve 5,000 years after him. It's used for geographical reasons.
    Although "Mesolithic Iberian" would be more correct, the remains were found in what is now Spain, whereas I very much doubt that the probably EHG like folks who united with the Armenian like folk to become the Yamna came from what is now Karelia (i.e., the Russian Republic of Karelia, the Russian Leningrad Oblast and the North and South Karelia regions of Finland). The portion of the pre-Yamna folk who weren't "Armenian-like" would have been from central Russia, IMO, so "Karelia" fails as a geographic term.

    Edit: While I was out socializing with friends this evening, not even thinking about this issue, a sudden thought popped into my head - if such smart people are using the term Karelian, is it because Y haplotype N and maybe I was found with Yamna? I doubt it myself, but that's the only way it would make any sense to apply "Karelian" to those people, if they were a mixture of R1a and N1c and maybe some I1. Not likely though, IMO.
    Last edited by Aberdeen; 02-11-14 at 05:25.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Robert6 View Post
    Karelians are Finno-Permic people
    President Putin is from Russian town Tver
    The "Tverians" came from Karelia.
    Tolkien(Lord of the Rings) wrote and used some myths and songs from Karelian people for his book, (the Elvish language is Karelian-Finnic).

    But we talking about Mesolithic Karelians so....


    it's a bit off topic but if 'elvish' is for Elfs language, it seems wrong to me: Tolkien took help rather on welsh language, I think?
    maybe I'm wrong???

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOESAN View Post
    it's a bit off topic but if 'elvish' is for Elfs language, it seems wrong to me: Tolkien took help rather on welsh language, I think?
    maybe I'm wrong???


    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Silmarillion
    J.R.R. Tolkien claimed The Kalevala as one of his sources for The Silmarillion.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kalevala

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    There are two languages (that were most popular) among Elves the Sindarin and the Quenya
    The Quenya is partly based on Finnish-Karelian
    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quenya

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