New map of haplogroup R1a-M458 (Y-DNA)

Dear Maciamo, do you know which data for Croats is correct, that of Underhill 2009 or Underhill 2014? Or at least why they differ so much? In the supplementary info of both papers it is stated Croats mainland and total number of sampled n=108, also the same with the islands. But the strange is that the results following this are different.

Data of Underhill 2009:
Croatia mainland(n=108): R1a- 26.9%; xM458- 24.1%, M458- 2.1%
Osijek: R1axM458- 37.9%, M458- 0%
Split: R1axM458- 16.9%, M458- 9%
Korcula: R1axM458- 12.7%, M458- 3%
Brac: R1axM458- 22.4%, M458-2%
Krk: R1axM458-24.3%, M458- 12.2%
Hvar: R1axM458-6.6%, M458- 0%

Results of Underhill 2014:
Croats mainland (n=108 !): R1a - 28.7, M458- 19.4%

For me not only the changed results, but the high M458 in Croats is strange, since it is so rare among their neighbours. As far as I know the only place where M458 is more than Z280 is possibly Rijeka, the source reads c412329/v412329003/6742/-ALhiG7WYe8.jpg in Google
 
Yeah, it is strange considering the fact most R1a Croats on publicaly avilable projects are Z280 insted of M458.

According to historical sources our origins are from Western Slavic lands , which are rich in M458, yet I'm not convinced it is dominant subclade among Croats.
 
I think we should email the authors of the team of Underhill to try to clear that out. The issue is especially strange and interesting to me. I'd also suggest that Z280 is more in Croats. Probably Zagreb and west Croatia are with more M458 if you see this map:

-ALhiG7WYe8.jpg
 
Dear Maciamo, do you know which data for Croats is correct, that of Underhill 2009 or Underhill 2014? Or at least why they differ so much? In the supplementary info of both papers it is stated Croats mainland and total number of sampled n=108, also the same with the islands. But the strange is that the results following this are different.

Data of Underhill 2009:
Croatia mainland(n=108): R1a- 26.9%; xM458- 24.1%, M458- 2.1%
Osijek: R1axM458- 37.9%, M458- 0%
Split: R1axM458- 16.9%, M458- 9%
Korcula: R1axM458- 12.7%, M458- 3%
Brac: R1axM458- 22.4%, M458-2%
Krk: R1axM458-24.3%, M458- 12.2%
Hvar: R1axM458-6.6%, M458- 0%

Results of Underhill 2014:
Croats mainland (n=108 !): R1a - 28.7, M458- 19.4%

For me not only the changed results, but the high M458 in Croats is strange, since it is so rare among their neighbours. As far as I know the only place where M458 is more than Z280 is possibly Rijeka, the source reads c412329/v412329003/6742/-ALhiG7WYe8.jpg in Google

That's a very good question. An doubly odd as it is the same team specialised in hg R1a, using apparently the same 108 samples, who reports such opposite results for R1a subclades in Croatia. I don't know what happened there. I would think that the newer data is the correct one and that they just hadn't tested thoroughly enough the first time. The FTDNA data show that almost all Serbian, Bosnian and Croatian R1a is Z280. So after all it's possible that Underhill's team misreported the data, inserting it in the M458 column when it should have been in the Z280 column.
 
A newer paper from 2016 confirms the expectations that in mainland Croatia Z280 prevails. If you check ''Genetic heritage of Croatians in the Southeastern European gene pool—Y chromosome analysis of the Croatian continental and Island population'' (Jelena Šarac 2016) you see M558 described as a major haplogroup among Croats (19%) in the intro. In the same publication R1a in Croatia mainland consists of: 21-M558, 3-M458, 5-Z282. In Dubrovnik and elsewhere M558 is also described prevailing.


The 2016 publication shows 88 sampled from Zagreb, Zabok, Donji Miholjac, Pazin, Delnice. Although not 108 again, these are appearently the same samples (excl 20 from Dubrovnik) derived from "Pericic et al. High-Resolution Phylogenetic Analysis of Southeastern Europe Traces Major Episodes of Paternal Gene Flow Among Slavic Populatiions" which describes 108 sampled from Mainland Croatia from Zagreb, Zabok, Donji Miholjac, Pazin Delnice and Dubrovnik. My conclusion is that data from Underhill 2014 is somehow mistaken, there is no other explanation.

As you said, Serbian, Bosnian and Croatian must be basically homogeneous in terms of R1a, this is more plausible suggestion if we consider the linguistic category, as the Serbo-Croatian language quite resembles Ukrainian. M458 is only significant in Bulgarians (and Greeks) in the south, whose language is descended from the Polish tribes.
 
User TK from neighboring Russian forum prepared a map of M458's subclades diversity.
14651147.jpg
 
.................

Hey Maciamo,

I posted a thread and can't seem to get any input. I am currently testing full genomes, and should have my results in January some time. On LivingDNA I am Z283 and no call for M458. However, I am predicted M458 - YP515(possibly a founder effect under or near this clade).

Out of curiosity, I uploaded my AncestryDNA to Morely Y-DNA predictor. I was predicted to most likely be R1a-M458-L1029-L388.

Per Igmayka on anthro, L388 occurs within YP263.

Per Yfull, these were the countries it is common in: https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-YP263/

How accurate is morely predictor? If I am part of this branch, who were the likely tribes to bring it to the Balkans?

Judging by its distribution, it seems most common in Germany, Scandinavia, Finland, Poland, Russia, USA.

The only thing I can think of is Ostrogoths, maybe Varangians(since the clade seems to be in Scandinavia and around the Balts). If it occurred earlier, possibly Bastarnae(given the geographic extent of their movements). If I am part of this clade, while its origin is Balto-Slavic and or Corded Ware, this particular clade does not seem common outside the listed countries. Otherwise it should be more widespread with some west slavic samples right?

Look forward to your reply.
 
There are quite a few Bulgarians proven R1a-YP263 and also all but one of the Bulgarian M458 fall under L1029.
It looks like Bulgarians R1a-YP263 are with Macedonian connection, so Albanians must be from the same subbranch. The TMRCA of this branch is only 1750y, so Slavic origin is likely.
 
There are quite a few Bulgarians proven R1a-YP263 and also all but one of the Bulgarian M458 fall under L1029.
It looks like Bulgarians R1a-YP263 are with Macedonian connection, so Albanians must be from the same subbranch. The TMRCA of this branch is only 1750y, so Slavic origin is likely.

Sorry I just saw this now. I am not actually YP263. I tested negative when doing FullGenomes. YP263 actually formed 2000ypb and has a TMRCA of 1800ypb. I am actually part of a founder effect with another Albanian. Only us two so far share our branch. The founder effect is hypothetically either upstream YP263 or downstream FGC27553 besides YP263. So a sister clade if you will. However FGC27553 is unstable(per Michal) so until I have my novels all tested to define our founder clade, we wont know where it will be exactly under L1029.

Thus far out of 13 tested novels my match is positive for 6. So our founder effect within Albanians likely happened sometime around 800AD. My TMRCA with other L1029 is 2000-2300ypb however. I am testing him for the final 8 SNPs. Depending how many are positive out of the total 21 should define our accurate TMRCA between us for our founder clade. Hopefully when that is done Maciamo can add our founder clade to the Phylogenetic tree for M458.

Additionally, here is a link a user got really detailed, it is also quite recent:: http://blog.vayda.pl/en/haplogroup-r1a-statistic-02-2018-14-new/

Majority of M458 in Balkans per current data is part of M458-B-Eastern(YP417 and downstream clades) and YP515. YP263 falls within M458-B-Western cluster, which has the highest percentage (as far as the Balkans is concerned) in Bulgaria, and Romania. However, B-Western only comprises a little over 20% of Bulgarian M458 overall. With regards to all of Europe, B-Western(which includes L1029*-basal, FGC66323. FGC27553, YP263 and YP444) is most common in Germany and Poland, with highest diversity of downstream clades in these areas. It tapers off eastward but has some percentages in Belarus. Most L1029 in the British Isles and Sweden(however negligible) is of the B-Western variety.

With regards to the Balkans, B-Western is most common in Bulgaria, Romania, Macedonia, Greece, and I guess now Albania(me and my match).

M458 reaches minimal percentages in the rest of the Balkans(Z280/Z92 is most dominant R1a), but thus far, mostly belonging to M458-B-Eastern(YP417) and YP515.
 

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