Angela, It can't be random with theoretical Yamna that posters at Eurogenes came to the same conclusion as Reich. We're not far off. It's not you guys being critcal I don't like, it's that you act as if everything but what I'm saying is true. It seems biased.
>Not all north Euros are the same. Northeast are surely more than 50% Yamna-like, probably 60-70% for some. 50% is probably a low-bound estimate for someone at the southern end of north European genetics like Germans.
>Yamna+EEF=xCWC or north Euros. Yamna+EEF+SHG/BHG=CWC and north Euros. You've forgotten about hunter gatherer admixture. Much of east Europe was hunter gatherer country when IEs arrived. This is why north Euros have as much WHG as Gok2 and Basque, but significantly less ENF.
>Corded ware does cluster in north-central Europe on PCAs, this is what Laz said.
>There appears to have been mostly genetic stagnation in north Europe starting with Corded ware samples, to 3,000YBP samples, to present-day samples. Corded ware will probably cluster around east Europe or a little east of them.
> Mathematically it is impossible for Mesolithic Scandinavians and modern west Asians to be the main source of ANE in Europe.
>We know from now over a dozen genomes from pre-bronze age west Europe that everyone was ENF+WHG, and were mostly something in-between Stuttgart and Gok2. We also have a pretty good idea what Samara Yamna was based on leaks. So ENF/WHG+Yamna+x=Euros.X fits as being something in-between Loschbour and EHG(65 WHG, 35 ANE).
I think you're assuming that I disagree with the general proposition that Yamnaya people changed the genomes in Europe, when actually I find the argument pretty convincing. What I object to is this
certainty as to specific percentages when it is all based on constructs instead of, as with Lazaridis et al, actual genomes of ancient people.
In addition, it's not as if the predictions have been consistent. These numbers seem to change with every new run. That doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Nor does it inspire confidence when I read things like, well, we can't have population x have y percentage of z component, because then that would move Corded Ware out of north central Europe. It might ultimately prove that it can cluster there, but these kinds of comments lead to doubts about the process.
Now we have this new leak about northern Europeans being approximately 50% Yamnaya. To repeat, if Corded Ware was 75% Yamnaya like, and northern Europeans are 50% Yamnaya like, they can't cluster together. In your own post above, you say that Corded Ware clusters in north Central Europe, and then in the next breath you say they will cluster east of eastern Europe. Both things cannot be true at the same time. Of course, it would be helpful to know how the authors of the paper are defining "northern" Europe. That's why it's necessary to wait for the
paper. Frankly, I don't understand why all these simulations are being done in the first place, when the paper is about to be published.
There is also the leak about Yamnaya being able to be fit as 66% of a population "related to" Yamnaya.
If that is the case, then perhaps modern northern Europeans might perhaps be fit as 50% of this "related" Indo-Europeanized (perhaps more northern forest steppe) group rather than Yamnaya Indo-European group. What if, for example, this related group moved into northern Europe and then was Indo-Europeanized later? I don't want to get into the particulars of the archaeology here, but early Corded does not have many of the "signatures" of the Indo-European package.
Also, I don't see how there can have been genetic stagnation in north Europe starting with Corded Ware to the present day when Reich specifically says that the genomes exhibited this 75% Yamnaya signature for 1500 years and then
changed to the more modern 50% signature. What caused the change is a separate issue.
As to the make up of the actual Yamnaya Indo-Europeans, if 50% of them was "Armenian like", then whatever was not ANE in these ancient Armenian like people was early Near Eastern farmer. So, perhaps anywhere from 40-50% is feasible. Until we get an Early Near Eastern farmer sample, however, this is all highly speculative. In addition, of course, northern Europeans would have "ENF" from the pre-Yamnaya inhabitants.