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Thread: Modern distribution of R1b-Z2103

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    This illustrates the problem with modern genetics, which appears to have gone backwards.
    Three male skeletons (yDNA L, probably from the same family) are found in a single cave (Areni), and because they are not R1b, the conclusion is reached that R1b didn't exist South of the Caucasus. Presumably, this means there was no J, G or E South of the Caucasus either.
    I am aware of 7 identified Maykop samples, one of which was R1 (presumably R1b, as there were several other North Caucasus R1b samples dated to around that time). There are also several other Maykop samples with unidentified Y DNA, and all of samples' yDNA readings are imprecise.
    Sweeping conclusions have been reached on the basis of very little information.
    The R1 individual you are mentionning is not from Maykop Proper, but Steppe Maykop, whatever it means on an archeological stand point. And it makes sense for R1 to be in North Caucasus at this point in time, because it's everywhere in Eastern Europe for milleniums prior to it. Also there is a Q1a2 individual alongside the R1 one, why not assume then too that this Q1a2 comes from chalcolithic Armenia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    If I remember correctly, the Areni samples are early 5th millennium BC Chalcolithic. As with other early R1 samples, no precise subclade is identified - most likely R1b-V88 or R1b-Z2103, as the other early Northern Caucasus R samples are.
    I believe what distinguishes the R1 sample from other Maykop is its sizeable Anatolian component, which is suggestive of admixture from the South West.
    I bet for R-PF7562. Z2103 is too steppe related I think. V88 is also too southern related with Egypt and Africa.

    IE Anatolian speakers were not steppe related (autosomal), hence my best bet go for PF7562, which is an early bronze age split from its branch sister L23. The best place of this split is northern Caucasus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    The R1 individual you are mentionning is not from Maykop Proper, but Steppe Maykop, whatever it means on an archeological stand point. And it makes sense for R1 to be in North Caucasus at this point in time, because it's everywhere in Eastern Europe for milleniums prior to it. Also there is a Q1a2 individual alongside the R1 one, why not assume then too that this Q1a2 comes from chalcolithic Armenia.
    Besides, Steppe Maykop had a much more "eastern" and quite probably Central Asian Steppe autosomal makeup, very distinct from that of "truly" Caucasian Maykop. I wouldn't analyze these two cultures and peoples together in terms of genetic origins and possibly even ethnic and linguistic identity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Besides, Steppe Maykop had a much more "eastern" and quite probably Central Asian Steppe autosomal makeup, very distinct from that of "truly" Caucasian Maykop. I wouldn't analyze these two cultures and peoples together in terms of genetic origins and possibly even ethnic and linguistic identity.
    I think the guys from the paper clearly said that there was a distinction between Maykop and Maykop Steppe ( wich is why the distinction " Steppe Maykop " ) both in ancestry and y-dna. As for ethnic and linguistic, i'm not sure, mtdna of Maykop Steppe is clearly linked with the southern fellows and i've read here and there that some Steppe Maykop people, like Progress had cultural links towards south such as similar kurgans as leyla-tepe.

    But as far as y-dna R1, i think it's almost clear that it came from eastern europe, even Narasimhan apparently had after few C14 fails to redate the Z2103 individual from Hajji Firuz something like MLBA. Everything tends to show that prior 3000 BC, there was no R1 south of caucasus, but that after, something triggered their movement.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    I think it's pretty clear, it's not about R1b, it's about ancient dna. Nothing can explain history better than ancient dna. We will never found the perfect proxys. Modern branches are too diversified and had too much founder effect to be relevant of any kind. If a south caucasus R1b-Z2103 needs to exist in time, it will being found at some point. But if we follow your modern basal branches hypothesis, we should not just found R1b-Z2103* in prehistoric Armenia but also L23* and M269*.
    This thread is about the modern distribution of R1b, not ancient DNA, much of which is the history of dead-end lineages with little or no relevance to our ancestry.

    If Z2103 South of the Caucasus is due to recent founder effects, then there must have been lots of different founders whose ancestors branched apart thousands of years beforehand, and who then all coincidentally ended up in the same small place (Armenia), leaving no trace of anyone related to them in the Steppe where they supposedly originated.

    M269 formed over several thousand years. There are probably remnants of thousands of M269 people dotted all over the place. Whether they will all be found, got tested, be successfully read for yDNA and their results published is another matter. The idea that early M269 people all stuck together in one specific location and mated with women with similar autosomal profiles is an illusion.

    Of course, if a single early M269 sample is found on the Steppe, it will be a case of 'proof that M269 was a Steppe lineage'. If found elsewhere, it will be ignored as 'noise' or an 'outlier'.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    The R1 individual you are mentionning is not from Maykop Proper, but Steppe Maykop, whatever it means on an archeological stand point. And it makes sense for R1 to be in North Caucasus at this point in time, because it's everywhere in Eastern Europe for milleniums prior to it. Also there is a Q1a2 individual alongside the R1 one, why not assume then too that this Q1a2 comes from chalcolithic Armenia.
    The argument 'it's not proper' is often used in genetics debate. Bell Beakers without Steppe DNA are written off as not proper Bell Beaker. M269 with few SNP reads are ignored as not real M269. It's usually a symptom of denial.

    If R1 was in the Northern Caucasus, why adamantly presume that no one bearing it could ever have crossed onto the other side of the mountains?

    The reason why we should not assume that Q1a2 comes from Chalcolithic Armenia is simple - the phylogenic and STR variance data do not support it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    The argument 'it's not proper' is often used in genetics debate. Bell Beakers without Steppe DNA are written off as not proper Bell Beaker. M269 with few SNP reads are ignored as not real M269. It's usually a symptom of denial.

    If R1 was in the Northern Caucasus, why adamantly presume that no one bearing it could ever have crossed onto the other side of the mountains?

    The reason why we should not assume that Q1a2 comes from Chalcolithic Armenia is simple - the phylogenic and STR variance data do not support it.
    Because,

    1) How would R1b-Z2103 ( if it was born and came from South Caucasus ) and with a majority of Farmer mtdna, be that high in EHG ancestry?

    2) R1 did cross Caucasus but in Chalcolithic-EBA transition when it became by founder effect and conquest one of the new lineage of late Kura-Araxes.

    3) Q1a2 is absent of South Caucasus modern dna, why would STR variance change anything about the deduction of its origin not there.

    4) While R1b-Z2103 had multiple founder effects in south caucasus for 5000 years, you are talking of denial, but this is a huge one. Absolutely all scientists using your hypothesis and statistics using modern dna were wrong for now.

    Your same hypothesis made scientists be clear in 2011 that R1b-M269 came in europe with LBK. Your same hypothesis made scientists be clear that R1a-M417 had a diversification origin in Iran.

    And as i said it, if M269, L23, Z2103 were south of the caucasus, it will show it at some point in a future study. Why trying to get a response only by modern dna conclusions?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    This thread is about the modern distribution of R1b, not ancient DNA, much of which is the history of dead-end lineages with little or no relevance to our ancestry.

    If Z2103 South of the Caucasus is due to recent founder effects, then there must have been lots of different founders whose ancestors branched apart thousands of years beforehand, and who then all coincidentally ended up in the same small place (Armenia), leaving no trace of anyone related to them in the Steppe where they supposedly originated.

    M269 formed over several thousand years. There are probably remnants of thousands of M269 people dotted all over the place. Whether they will all be found, got tested, be successfully read for yDNA and their results published is another matter. The idea that early M269 people all stuck together in one specific location and mated with women with similar autosomal profiles is an illusion.

    Of course, if a single early M269 sample is found on the Steppe, it will be a case of 'proof that M269 was a Steppe lineage'. If found elsewhere, it will be ignored as 'noise' or an 'outlier'.
    You are starting to show impatience over the topic like " you want it to be south of the caucasus ". Bias can be hard times. If nobody would have ramble on the Hajji Firuz R1b-Z2103, we probably would have accepted the idea that this was the " ancestor of yamnaya guys " like Markod said impulsively and with joy at the preprint of the paper, wich also show'd his bias.

    I dont believe to probabilities and statistics in ancient and modern dna. My point is, i believe prehistoric steppe Z2103 are older than any living Z2103. All modern southern caucasus Z2103 were born in south caucasus post-chalcolithic, mountaneous region are creating lots of founder effects very fast, as for very populous regions. India show the same kind of Z93 founder effects as Z2103 south of caucasus. Being an outlier depend on the ancestral component % according to the whole population analyzed, so it's not relevant with lineage.

    Thing is, i think people are too focused on the Yamnaya Culture. We already see EHG in Areni individuals, Z2103 could have come as early as 4000 BC in south caucasus, totally unrelated with later IE migrations, or maybe related with a very early migration, but those guys did not came back into the steppe to found Yamnaya. If you insist in putting Yamnaya and PIE in the topic ( wich i dont say or even think you are doing ) it might sound like an ethnogenesis pride, such as some armenian and kurdish guys have in those topics and communities.

    Let's focus on ancient dna, all questions will be answered at some point.

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    This old study has to be analyzed and observed in different angles. Especially considering 1) their datas 2) their conclusion 3) the relation of both 1 and 2 points with the ancient dna that we have since 2012.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3286660/

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    Quote Originally Posted by Piro Ilir View Post
    IE Anatolian speakers were not steppe related (autosomal), hence my best bet go for PF7562, which is an early bronze age split from its branch sister L23. The best place of this split is northern Caucasus.
    My estimates suggest this is likely, although perhaps a little sooner.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Besides, Steppe Maykop had a much more "eastern" and quite probably Central Asian Steppe autosomal makeup, very distinct from that of "truly" Caucasian Maykop. I wouldn't analyze these two cultures and peoples together in terms of genetic origins and possibly even ethnic and linguistic identity.
    I was just responding to the claim that there was no Maykop Z2103; but, yes, it's not especially relevant.
    Having said that, specifically the Z2103 sample in Steppe Maykop is one that has the typical "true" Maykop admixture, with a substantial Anatolian component.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    But as far as y-dna R1, i think it's almost clear that it came from eastern europe, even Narasimhan apparently had after few C14 fails to redate the Z2103 individual from Hajji Firuz something like MLBA. Everything tends to show that prior 3000 BC, there was no R1 south of caucasus, but that after, something triggered their movement.
    It's not a matter of whether R1 per se came from Eastern Europe; I'm not disputing that. The question is where the most recent common ancestor of Z2103 lived.
    Nothing can ever possibly show that there was no R1 South of the Caucasus, unless we have access to the remains of every man who has lived there prior to 3,000 BC. And you talk as if there were a block of R1 people who were all aware of each other's yDNA and made a point of sticking together as a unit without exception for tens of thousands of years, each of them avoiding ever straying South of the Caucasus. This is simplistic and misleading.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    How would R1b-Z2103 ( if it was born and came from South Caucasus ) and with a majority of Farmer mtdna, be that high in EHG ancestry?
    At the birth of Z2103 (which incidentally happened over a period of probably several hundred years), we have no way of knowing what mtDNA it had, nor whether it was high in EHG ancestry, nor whether some of its bearers had very different mtDNA and aDNA to each other. You are trying to compare yDNA in the 5th millennium BC with aDNA and mtDNA from 50 or more generations later when there is no evidential or logical basis for doing so.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Q1a2 is absent of South Caucasus modern dna, why would STR variance change anything about the deduction of its origin not there.
    Because the greatest STR variances between Q1a2 samples of specific phylogeny consistently occur further North.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    While R1b-Z2103 had multiple founder effects in south caucasus for 5000 years, you are talking of denial, but this is a huge one. Absolutely all scientists using your hypothesis and statistics using modern dna were wrong for now.
    A very sweeping statement, and I very much doubt there is anything to prove that anyone was wrong. Besides which, much of the precise phylogeny and the volume of data has emerged only recently, so the estimates are going to be subject to frequent revision.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Your same hypothesis made scientists be clear in 2011 that R1b-M269 came in europe with LBK. Your same hypothesis made scientists be clear that R1a-M417 had a diversification origin in Iran.
    You are too black and white. Nothing was 'clear' in 2011, neither is it that 'clear' now. And the whole concept that M269 'came' to Europe at any one specific time is misleading - there were probably bearers of various branches of M269 moving in and out of various parts of Europe at various times (some of which died out, some of which didn't).

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Why trying to get a response only by modern dna conclusions?
    Because, as things stand, modern data is far more reliable, far more precise, far more detailed, in far greater quantity, more universally published and its sampling is much more random.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    You are starting to show impatience over the topic like " you want it to be south of the caucasus ". Bias can be hard times. If nobody would have ramble on the Hajji Firuz R1b-Z2103, we probably would have accepted the idea that this was the " ancestor of yamnaya guys " like Markod said impulsively and with joy at the preprint of the paper, wich also show'd his bias.
    I'm not bothered where it is. I'm English, have no idea whether I am Z2103, have no reason to have any preference which side of the mountains it originated, and my estimates on this have changed over the past couple of years as new data has been published.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    I dont believe to probabilities and statistics in ancient and modern dna. My point is, i believe prehistoric steppe Z2103 are older than any living Z2103. All modern southern caucasus Z2103 were born in south caucasus post-chalcolithic, mountaneous region are creating lots of founder effects very fast, as for very populous regions. India show the same kind of Z93 founder effects as Z2103 south of caucasus. Being an outlier depend on the ancestral component % according to the whole population analyzed, so it's not relevant with lineage.
    I do believe in data and in statistics, and have no fixed faiths or beliefs that certain haplogroups originated anywhere in particular.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Let's focus on ancient dna, all questions will be answered at some point.
    Why wait? I could be dead by the time they find anything useful, become bothered to analyse it, get the funding to analyse it, see whether they can read it and decide whether to publish it. It it passes through all these hoops and then does provide useful information, it will then probably be written off as a 'blip', 'noise', an 'outlier' or of insufficient quality to be worthy of consideration.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I'm not bothered where it is. I'm English, have no idea whether I am Z2103, have no reason to have any preference which side of the mountains it originated, and my estimates on this have changed over the past couple of years as new data has been published.


    I do believe in data and in statistics, and have no fixed faiths or beliefs that certain haplogroups originated anywhere in particular.


    Why wait? I could be dead by the time they find anything useful, become bothered to analyse it, get the funding to analyse it, see whether they can read it and decide whether to publish it. It it passes through all these hoops and then does provide useful information, it will then probably be written off as a 'blip', 'noise', an 'outlier' or of insufficient quality to be worthy of consideration.
    Do what you do and what you want. I will just not follow the same path. The real importance is to know why we are, individualy doing it for.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Do what you do and what you want. I will just not follow the same path. The real importance is to know why we are, individualy doing it for.
    For me, curiosity.

    halfalp, you might well be right, although the specific hypothesis that living Z2103 originated in the Steppe is untestable through ancient DNA, and is thus what Popper defined as pseudoscience - a matter of instinct, much like the tenets of psychoanalysis, a belief in God or interpretations of literature. The only objective methods of testing this are currently using variance analysis on modern DNA, and they yield a slightly different alternative 'most likely' answer. But all might change as the data accumulates.

    There are four basal branches of living Z2103 - three of these branches are estimated to be wholly of a South of the Caucasus coalescence (PF331, Y13369 and Y4364) and the fourth is estimated to have a Caucasus branch (CTS8966) and a Steppe/Eastern European branch (Z2109). The only steppic branch appears to be a sub-branch of a basal branch, and this sub-branch Z2109 shows little or no sign of migrating back South of the Caucasus at any subsequent point.

    The Steppe looks from the data to be at best a tertiary development of Z2103, with any migrational separation across the Caucasus occurring at an early stage (whichever way it occurred), long before the late Bronze Age steppic migrations into Southern Asia. Accordingly, I would suggest these late Bronze Age steppic migrations were of people that were predominantly R1a-Z93 (rather than R1b-Z2103), albeit with probably some Yamnayan-descendant admixture.

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    1 members found this post helpful.
    I have hard time to imagine that the 400-200 BC Scythians Z2103 samples that we have are not somehow related with any modern branches of Z2103.

    According to Maciamo then itself according to FTDNA:


    - L584 (including L943) : found mostly in the South Caucasus, Turkey, Iraq and Iran, but also in Poland, Germany and Austria.

    - L277.1 : found in Russia, Central Asia, Bulgaria, India and the Middle East (Iraq, Lebanon).

    - CTS7822 (including CTS9219) : found in Russia (including Chuvashia), Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, the Balkans, Armenia, Italy, Spain, Britain and Ireland.

    - CTS7763 : found in Turkey, Bulgaria and Italy.

    - Z2109 : found in Germany and Scotland.

    All South Caucasus Z2103 branches are also found in Europe. Bashkirs and Udmurts have probably more Z2103 % than ethnic Armenians but i cannot found anything on this and the potential branches they are in.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    I have hard time to imagine that the 400-200 BC Scythians Z2103 samples that we have are not somehow related with any modern branches of Z2103.
    Do we have further information on their SNPs? If we do, we can surely find out; if we do not, we will not know one way or the other. Personally, I have no difficulty imagining that the lineage of an ancient person might have died out; it happened all the time.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    According to Maciamo then itself according to FTDNA:

    - L584 (including L943) : found mostly in the South Caucasus, Turkey, Iraq and Iran, but also in Poland, Germany and Austria.

    - L277.1 : found in Russia, Central Asia, Bulgaria, India and the Middle East (Iraq, Lebanon).

    - CTS7822 (including CTS9219) : found in Russia (including Chuvashia), Ukraine, Poland, Hungary, the Balkans, Armenia, Italy, Spain, Britain and Ireland.

    - CTS7763 : found in Turkey, Bulgaria and Italy.

    - Z2109 : found in Germany and Scotland.

    All South Caucasus Z2103 branches are also found in Europe. Bashkirs and Udmurts have probably more Z2103 % than ethnic Armenians but i cannot found anything on this and the potential branches they are in.
    Yes, as the current data stands, the South/Caucasus Z2103 samples are more similar to European samples (both in terms of SNPs and STRs) than they are to each other, suggesting that the European samples descended more recently from South/Caucasus people than when the South/Caucasus samples branched away from each other. If you analyse all of the ftDNA samples in detail and according to their precise SNPs, I think you will find the same. (L584, L277 and CTS7763 are each subclades of these branches.)

    The limited information that I have on Bashkir samples places them on the European basal branch, which my estimates suggest most likely underwent its early development on the Central Steppe (the European branch being the Z2019 sub-subclade of Z2103, from which most European Z2103 branches, including CTS7822, descend).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Do we have further information on their SNPs? If we do, we can surely find out; if we do not, we will not know one way or the other. Personally, I have no difficulty imagining that the lineage of an ancient person might have died out; it happened all the time.



    Yes, as the current data stands, the South/Caucasus Z2103 samples are more similar to European samples (both in terms of SNPs and STRs) than they are to each other, suggesting that the European samples descended more recently from South/Caucasus people than when the South/Caucasus samples branched away from each other. If you analyse all of the ftDNA samples in detail and according to their precise SNPs, I think you will find the same. (L584, L277 and CTS7763 are each subclades of these branches.)

    The limited information that I have on Bashkir samples places them on the European basal branch, which my estimates suggest most likely underwent its early development on the Central Steppe (the European branch being the Z2019 sub-subclade of Z2103, from which most European Z2103 branches, including CTS7822, descend).
    But let me just summarize your hypothesis here:

    You believe the R1b-Z2103* from prehistoric steppe is a dead lineage, somehow related with the " Z2103 european basal branche " that separated from " multiple South Caucasus Z2103 basal branches " before Yamnaya Culture?

    If so, what is your hypothesis of how did it came into Steppe and when?

    Let's have an alternative hypothesis. In the Caucasus paper there is 2 interesting North Caucasus samples. PG2001 and PG2004 both are 4300-4000 BC old and are probably R1b-V1636*.

    I'm pretty sure R1b-V1636 is nowadays only found in South Caucasus, and STR analysis would show just as R1b-Z2103 that it was probably born in modern Armenia or somwhere South of Caucasus.

    Then we have 3500-3000 BC samples all over Eastern Europe that shows Z2103*.

    Now let's cut the apple in two. What if, V1636 and Z2103 are originating in North Caucasus but somehow had ties with South Caucasus ( Areni ) and exchanged genes already 4000BC. Z2103 and V1636 does appear in South Caucasus wich indirectly confirms those exchanges, but it only appears post-3000 BC mainly Late Bronze Age.

    If we go back the Phylogenetic Tree of R1b, V1636 is the brother of P297 and Z2103 is the grand-son of M269. It's hard to imagine there was a mutual origin both South of the Caucasus and in broad Eastern Europe since at least Paleolithic. Z2013 from Yamnaya have probably nothing to do with modern south caucasus branches and probably dont come from South Caucasus. However, it's possible that around 4000 BC some North Caucasus Z2103 and V1636 expanded South of the Caucasus before the founder effect creating the Steppe Z2103 ( probably with the cultural impulse of Maykop expansion ) came to birth.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    But let me just summarize your hypothesis here:
    You believe the R1b-Z2103* from prehistoric steppe is a dead lineage, somehow related with the " Z2103 european basal branche " that separated from " multiple South Caucasus Z2103 basal branches " before Yamnaya Culture?
    If so, what is your hypothesis of how did it came into Steppe and when?
    I would guess that the surviving Z2103* lineage might well have spent part (or perhaps even much) of its lifespan in the Steppe, but there is no data to confirm this for sure, and I have no hypothesis concerning how or when it did so.

    My estimate for the steppic Z2109 branch calculated as 4,200 BC (a little earlier than yfull's estimate), although I am not confident of the precision of this estimate (just that its separation from Southern branches appears to precede Yamnaya).

    My guess is that it connects in some way to the steppic-Anatolian hybrid people (Suvorovo) that turned up in 5th millennium BC Bulgaria.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Let's have an alternative hypothesis. In the Caucasus paper there is 2 interesting North Caucasus samples. PG2001 and PG2004 both are 4300-4000 BC old and are probably R1b-V1636*.
    I'm pretty sure R1b-V1636 is nowadays only found in South Caucasus, and STR analysis would show just as R1b-Z2103 that it was probably born in modern Armenia or somwhere South of Caucasus.
    Then we have 3500-3000 BC samples all over Eastern Europe that shows Z2103*.
    There are two assumptions here of which I would appreciate clarification - (i) how do we arrive at 'probably R1b-V1636'?, and (ii) what exactly is meant by Z2103*? (A definition of Z2103* from several years ago might be different to Z2103* now, due to recent confirmation of phylogeny).

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Now let's cut the apple in two. What if, V1636 and Z2103 are originating in North Caucasus but somehow had ties with South Caucasus ( Areni ) and exchanged genes already 4000BC. Z2103 and V1636 does appear in South Caucasus wich indirectly confirms those exchanges, but it only appears post-3000 BC mainly Late Bronze Age.
    If we go back the Phylogenetic Tree of R1b, V1636 is the brother of P297 and Z2103 is the grand-son of M269. It's hard to imagine there was a mutual origin both South of the Caucasus and in broad Eastern Europe since at least Paleolithic. Z2013 from Yamnaya have probably nothing to do with modern south caucasus branches and probably dont come from South Caucasus. <strong>However, it's possible that around 4000 BC some North Caucasus Z2103 and V1636 expanded South of the Caucasus before the founder effect creating the Steppe Z2103 ( probably with the cultural impulse of Maykop expansion ) came to birth.
    Yes, indeed very possible. Still not quite the most likely in my view. I see early Z2103 as possibly moving around a focal point in the Western Caucasus, perhaps even seasonally; I also see many successful ancient lineages as cross-cultural, which can catalyse development, although this is only speculation in this case. I am not confident enough to be any more definite in this respect.

    My main point of curiosity was to try to establish whether South of Caucasus Z2103 was substantially connected to later Bronze Age/Aryan migrations, and I have come to the tentative conclusion that probably wasn't and that it was most likely R1-Z93 that brought in the bulk of Steppe DNA at that point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    There are two assumptions here of which I would appreciate clarification - (i) how do we arrive at 'probably R1b-V1636'?, and (ii) what exactly is meant by Z2103*? (A definition of Z2103* from several years ago might be different to Z2103* now, due to recent confirmation of phylogeny).
    1) Smal from Anthrogenica made calls for this paper several times ago here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=202340943. Im not sure if the calls are from him or the authors, but i'm pretty sure they are not wrong.

    Also about R1b-Z2103*, pretty sure all Z2103 from Yamnaya and prehistoric Steppe are labeled Z2103*

    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Yes, indeed very possible. Still not quite the most likely in my view. I see early Z2103 as possibly moving around a focal point in the Western Caucasus, perhaps even seasonally; I also see many successful ancient lineages as cross-cultural, which can catalyse development, although this is only speculation in this case. I am not confident enough to be any more definite in this respect.

    My main point of curiosity was to try to establish whether South of Caucasus Z2103 was substantially connected to later Bronze Age/Aryan migrations, and I have come to the tentative conclusion that probably wasn't and that it was most likely R1-Z93 that brought in the bulk of Steppe DNA at that point.
    Now it's the point where i want to come to. Do we speak about R1b-L23 and Z2103 clearly been born from M269 in South Caucasus, or are we talking as i said about cross-cultural developpement? I have the conviction, wich might changes with new datas, that the Z2103 from the Steppe mainly Yamnaya are local, wich doesn't mean the Z2103 from Hajji Firuz for exemple are directly descending from Yamnaya guys. If Z2103 have a TMRCA older than 4000 BC, then it can clearly have lived both side of the Caucasus before Yamnaya expansions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    1) Smal from Anthrogenica made calls for this paper several times ago here https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...#gid=202340943. Im not sure if the calls are from him or the authors, but i'm pretty sure they are not wrong.
    Thanks. Not sure that V1636 is highly relevant, though, as yfull estimates that it split from Z2103's ancestor more than 10,000 years beforehand.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Also about R1b-Z2103*, pretty sure all Z2103 from Yamnaya and prehistoric Steppe are labeled Z2103*
    I can only find that it is either Z2103 unspecified or I2a2a1b1, apart from one dead end L23 lineage negative for both Z2103 and L51.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Now it's the point where i want to come to. Do we speak about R1b-L23 and Z2103 clearly been born from M269 in South Caucasus, or are we talking as i said about cross-cultural developpement? I have the conviction, wich might changes with new datas, that the Z2103 from the Steppe mainly Yamnaya are local, wich doesn't mean the Z2103 from Hajji Firuz for exemple are directly descending from Yamnaya guys. If Z2103 have a TMRCA older than 4000 BC, then it can clearly have lived both side of the Caucasus before Yamnaya expansions.
    I wouldn't say it is clear where these haplogroups were formed, merely that they were most likely in the general vicinity of the Western Caucasus as they were forming. Perhaps the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but that the successful people bearing this yDNA moved between two environments, sheltering in and trading with farmers in the South during the winters and venturing North in the summers. When two cultures come together, this can confer the advantages of adaptability and an increased skillset.

    I have mentioned this elsewhere, but I see curious associations between two diverse haplogroups R-L23 and G-PF3345, which each appear to have thrived (on both sides of the Pontic) while relatives around them were dying out. Perhaps further indications of collaboration?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I wouldn't say it is clear where these haplogroups were formed, merely that they were most likely in the general vicinity of the Western Caucasus as they were forming. Perhaps the two hypotheses are not mutually exclusive, but that the successful people bearing this yDNA moved between two environments, sheltering in and trading with farmers in the South during the winters and venturing North in the summers. When two cultures come together, this can confer the advantages of adaptability and an increased skillset.

    I have mentioned this elsewhere, but I see curious associations between two diverse haplogroups R-L23 and G-PF3345, which each appear to have thrived (on both sides of the Pontic) while relatives around them were dying out. Perhaps further indications of collaboration?
    Well its clear already 5000BC that Pontic Steppe and South Caucasus are exchanging females via the mtdna results we have cf. ( H2a1 in Khvalynsk and H2a1a in Sredny Stog and maybe y-dna such as J1* in Karelia. I dont think any R1b and G population ( together ) ever existed anywhere. I think J2b might be a better southern lineage to be related and found alongside R1b. It's clear that the R1b from Steppe neighbored a lot of CHG people, looking at their ancestry, even if all CHG from Steppe came via women, they had those women because of good relationship with the southern people.

    And i wouldn't take too much reltation from ancient dna distribution with modern one. I have already made the research and the L-L595 haplogroup from Maykop is nowadays mainly an European lineage especially extreme west europe as Ireland and British Islands but also Estonia. Wich tells us this lineage since Maykop expanded a lot, probably with IE speakers somehow.

    I think there was infiltration in Steppe from the south both East and West of the Caucasus mountains. Even though the question is, Where did R1b-Z2103 originated?

    Then there is that argument that Z2103 branches of Armenia separated before the Steppic and Eastern European ones. That's probably true, but it doesn't tell us where it did separated, Armenia is just the modern focal point, not the point of origin.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Thanks. Not sure that V1636 is highly relevant, though, as yfull estimates that it split from Z2103's ancestor more than 10,000 years beforehand.
    Its only relevant in the way that, if we would only have modern V1636 samples, our primary deduction would be it came from Anatolia, while it is now found in Khvalynsk Culture and North Caucasus ante-4000 BC while it is found in prehistoric South Caucasus in Late Kura-Araxes only 2600-2400 BC. But probably STR variance would put V1636 origin in Anatolia, while it's probably not. I like to think lineages dont really spread with inconsistant patterns, and R1b in Europe since Paleolithic seem a coherent pattern from now. Then there is people who believe that there was some R1b in Europe, while there was some V88 and M269 in Northern Mesopotamia at the same time... i dont believe such patterns, especially when they are incoherent in relation with the phylogenetic tree and the prehistoric datas.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Its only relevant in the way that, if we would only have modern V1636 samples, our primary deduction would be it came from Anatolia, while it is now found in Khvalynsk Culture and North Caucasus ante-4000 BC while it is found in prehistoric South Caucasus in Late Kura-Araxes only 2600-2400 BC. But probably STR variance would put V1636 origin in Anatolia, while it's probably not. I like to think lineages dont really spread with inconsistant patterns, and R1b in Europe since Paleolithic seem a coherent pattern from now. Then there is people who believe that there was some R1b in Europe, while there was some V88 and M269 in Northern Mesopotamia at the same time... i dont believe such patterns, especially when they are incoherent in relation with the phylogenetic tree and the prehistoric datas.
    Yes, but the quantity of V1636 data is too small from which to draw reliable conclusions. If something is not found, this does not mean it did not exist. And in human behaviour/social sciences, it is unrealistic to expect wholly coherent patterns.

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