Modern distribution of R1b-Z2103

[Pip]

Well its clear already 5000BC that Pontic Steppe and South Caucasus are exchanging females via the mtdna results we have cf. ( H2a1 in Khvalynsk and H2a1a in Sredny Stog and maybe y-dna such as J1* in Karelia.

Yes, although this isn't really exchange, but signs of one-way traffic. If there was admixture between North and South of Caucasus populations, the two populations must have met, so I don't see why there would not also have been some gene flows in the opposite direction.

I dont think any R1b and G population ( together ) ever existed anywhere.

I think it likely, with G-PF3345 specifically - in the Eastern Balkans/Carpathians (and spilling over into Central/Western Europe) with L51, and in the Western Caucasus with Z2103. It might help explain why L23 and PF3345 are the only subclades of each haplogroup that thrived, and PF3345 provided what I expect living L23 acquired the majority of its Anatolian component from.

And i wouldn't take too much reltation from ancient dna distribution with modern one. I have already made the research and the L-L595 haplogroup from Maykop is nowadays mainly an European lineage especially extreme west europe as Ireland and British Islands but also Estonia. Wich tells us this lineage since Maykop expanded a lot, probably with IE speakers somehow.

Exactly, it seems to mirror R1b-L23. Probably not a coincidence, in my opinion.

I think there was infiltration in Steppe from the south both East and West of the Caucasus mountains. Even though the question is, Where did R1b-Z2103 originated?

Then there is that argument that Z2103 branches of Armenia separated before the Steppic and Eastern European ones. That's probably true, but it doesn't tell us where it did separated, Armenia is just the modern focal point, not the point of origin.

I think we are close enough to the answer - that its formative period came to a conclusion most likely somewhere near to the Caucasus. This fits with yDNA, mtDNA and aDNA evidence.

To expect much more than this is unrealistic. The formation of Z2103 as we know it represents several hundred years of lineage through a series of single individuals who underwent 10 different SNP mutations. It is impossible for us to find the remnants of each of these individuals, and track exactly where they were all conceived and where they travelled over their lifetimes.

[halfalp]

To expect much more than this is unrealistic. The formation of Z2103 as we know it represents several hundred years of lineage through a series of single individuals who underwent 10 different SNP mutations. It is impossible for us to find the remnants of each of these individuals, and track exactly where they were all conceived and where they travelled over their lifetimes.

I think my point is that i dont believe M269 was in Balkans or Steppe, came to Anatolia or South of the Caucasus and back migrate to Steppe again. If L23 and Z2103 are born in Armenia, then L51 probably also, but a thing to keep in mind, if Z2103 was 4000BC in Armenia, its genetic signature would be 50/50 Anatolian_Chl and Iran_Neolithic. Both signature dont exist in the Z2103 Steppe samples, only CHG that some guys try to link with Iran_Neo but the thing is many calculators shows how this ancestry is closer to Kotias than Ganj Dareh or Hotu for exemple. P297 is virtually the father of M269 while M73 is the virtual brother of it. So P297 in Baltic, M73 East of the Urals, it make sense for M269 to be from the Steppe, L23 and Z2103 probably had TMRCA at some point very close to Caucasus, while L51 was somewhere else.

[Pip]

I think my point is that i dont believe M269 was in Balkans or Steppe, came to Anatolia or South of the Caucasus and back migrate to Steppe again.

What grounds do you have for not believing that? yfull estimates M269's formation period to be 6,900 years long. Even before it started branching, there were about 230 generations of men bearing an M269-equivalent SNP. Why would they all have stayed in exactly the same spot for the whole of their lifespans? M269 would have been formative over a zone, almost certainly a wide one.
Some were migrating backwards and forwards all the time. Suvorovo seem to have moved from the Central Steppe to the Balkans and back, and R1a-Z283 appears to have migrated from the Steppe to Germany and back again. It is not unheard of.

if Z2103 was 4000BC in Armenia, its genetic signature would be 50/50 Anatolian_Chl and Iran_Neolithic. Both signature dont exist in the Z2103 Steppe samples

Armenia was probably inhabited by various populations with different signatures; I can't see that anyone present there would automatically have been 50:50 Anatolian:CHG.
But in any case, within the next 1,000 years by the time we get to the Z2103 Steppe samples, the original Armenian autosomal mix would have been diluted by 30 or more admixtures with females, potentially creating various signatures, each unrecognisable from their start point. That is why we have early Z2103 samples with a variety of autosomal mixes - some heavily EHG, some heavily CHG, one heavily Anatolian, one heavily WHG.

P297 is virtually the father of M269 while M73 is the virtual brother of it. So P297 in Baltic, M73 East of the Urals, it make sense for M269 to be from the Steppe, L23 and Z2103 probably had TMRCA at some point very close to Caucasus, while L51 was somewhere else.

Ancient P297 and M73 in the Baltic are red herrings - the lineages of all of these samples are extinct, suggesting that the Baltic was not the place most conducive to the emergence of successful P297 lineages.
I would suggest the main zone within which Z2103 formed was most likely the Eastern Pontic between Laz and Azov. However, in my view, it would not be out of the question for Z2103 to have also been within the group that moved in and destroyed the Chalcolithic settlements in the Balkans and Carpathians before migrating back to the East again.

[halfalp]

What grounds do you have for not believing that? yfull estimates M269's formation period to be 6,900 years long. Even before it started branching, there were about 230 generations of men bearing an M269-equivalent SNP. Why would they all have stayed in exactly the same spot for the whole of their lifespans? M269 would have been formative over a zone, almost certainly a wide one.
Some were migrating backwards and forwards all the time. Suvorovo seem to have moved from the Central Steppe to the Balkans and back, and R1a-Z283 appears to have migrated from the Steppe to Germany and back again. It is not unheard of.


Armenia was probably inhabited by various populations with different signatures; I can't see that anyone present there would automatically have been 50:50 Anatolian:CHG.
But in any case, within the next 1,000 years by the time we get to the Z2103 Steppe samples, the original Armenian autosomal mix would have been diluted by 30 or more admixtures with females, potentially creating various signatures, each unrecognisable from their start point. That is why we have early Z2103 samples with a variety of autosomal mixes - some heavily EHG, some heavily CHG, one heavily Anatolian, one heavily WHG.

Ancient P297 and M73 in the Baltic are red herrings - the lineages of all of these samples are extinct, suggesting that the Baltic was not the place most conducive to the emergence of successful P297 lineages.
I would suggest the main zone within which Z2103 formed was most likely the Eastern Pontic between Laz and Azov. However, in my view, it would not be out of the question for Z2103 to have also been within the group that moved in and destroyed the Chalcolithic settlements in the Balkans and Carpathians before migrating back to the East again.

You keep comparing modern branches and considering prehistoric ones as " extinct ". People did the same with Villabruna or Iron_Gates / Baltic HG's.

Let me just resume on what your hypothesis is holding taking ancient dna in account. Because there is no R1b ante-3000 BC in Anatolia, South Caucasus or broad Middle-East. Apparently according to almost everyone on Eupedia, R1b-V88, R1b-M269, R1b-L23, R1b-Z2103, R1b-L51 were all Anatolian-broad Middle-East lineages but apparently we cannot found any of them. Apparently the Europeans samples are Dead Lineages so Irrelevant and apparently the lineages that survived cannot be found because they were ultra minor lineages in Anatolia-Broad Middle-East until they reach Europe and then expanded like crazy.

The diversity of prehistoric Armenia probably was not diverse as you would want it to be. Yamnaya samples have Z2103 and mostly souther mtdna, were the 60% EHG came from? Once again its shadow ultra minor lineage that would have expanded like crazy. I dont buy it.

About your point about Anatolian and WHG heavy Z2103, it's very symptomatic of transitional peoples. Meaning the Anatolian ancestry of Northern Caucasus samples are totally irrelevant for the history of Z2103 and more relevant in the history of Maykop People lacking Z2103. Most of none North Caucasus Z2103 are contemporary with it and do not show Anatolian ancestry, meaning this ancestry never expanded over the Manych River. As the same with the extra WHG ancestry West. M73 was not found in the Baltic as far as i remember but in Botai, wich totally match the geography of modern distribution east of the Urals. We dont have much data of modern P297 but its probably born not far of the Baltic and if not Baltic probably east of it.

If there is enough room to say that everything about the ancient dna we have is irrelevant about prehistoric history ( what? ), there is not enough room to talk about all this. We can just write the history with modern dna. But then why would ancient dna exist and paper about it exist if modern dna alone was relevant? Thats a good paradoxe that we should do probabilities of ancient dna with modern dna.

[Pip]

The difference is I am assuming lineages are dead when they do not appear amongst tens of thousands of modern samples; you are assuming that lineages did not exist when they do not appear amongst only tens of ancient samples.
Ancient DNA is not irrelevant though - it can be very informative when it is potentially a living lineage and can be traced into modern populations. Yamnayan Z2103 is a good example of this, but I don't think ancient DNA tells us much about the formation of basal M269 clades, as the samples aren't really there at early enough dates. Consequently, we can't really say what the autosomal mixes were in their earliest populations, or what might have been admixed in by just one or two generations of females from other populations.
Ancient DNA tells us more about the formation of R1a-M417, as a couple of samples fall close to formation dates, have consistent autosomal readings and can be traced through well into living populations.

[halfalp]

The difference is I am assuming lineages are dead when they do not appear amongst tens of thousands of modern samples; you are assuming that lineages did not exist when they do not appear amongst only tens of ancient samples.
Ancient DNA is not irrelevant though - it can be very informative when it is potentially a living lineage and can be traced into modern populations. Yamnayan Z2103 is a good example of this, but I don't think ancient DNA tells us much about the formation of basal M269 clades, as the samples aren't really there at early enough dates. Consequently, we can't really say what the autosomal mixes were in their earliest populations, or what might have been admixed in by just one or two generations of females from other populations.
Ancient DNA tells us more about the formation of R1a-M417, as a couple of samples fall close to formation dates, have consistent autosomal readings and can be traced through well into living populations.

Just as an exemple, do we know if the Cogotas R1b-DF27 falls into modern DF27 branches or is it a dead lineage branch? If it's a dead one, what does it have different than Z2103 samples from the Steppe?

Yes you maybe right about R1a-M417, but before we had ancient dna of them, people used to force the origin of it in Kurdistan with the same technology you are making Z2103 coming from Armenia, so why are they wrong because of Ancient DNA and you dont because of Modern DNA? Only because they are close to formation date?

[Pip]

Just as an exemple, do we know if the Cogotas R1b-DF27 falls into modern DF27 branches or is it a dead lineage branch? If it's a dead one, what does it have different than Z2103 samples from the Steppe?
Yes you maybe right about R1a-M417, but before we had ancient dna of them, people used to force the origin of it in Kurdistan with the same technology you are making Z2103 coming from Armenia, so why are they wrong because of Ancient DNA and you dont because of Modern DNA? Only because they are close to formation date?

I'll look at Cogotas if I can find data on it. If it's like other BA Iberian I've seen, it will be a mix of Northern Bell Beaker, El Portalon and Iberian Neolithic.
Not sure why Kurdistan for M417 - perhaps they had little data or applied unsophisticated methodology or were looking at R1a as a whole. My calculations for MRCA gave SE Poland/NW Ukraine, but still based on fairly little data. Still, it ties up roughly with ancient DNA, which gives an early NE Ukraine sample with a semi-Balkan like autosomal profile.

[nornosh]

Question: percentage of R1b-Z2103 in Western Iran, Turkmenistan, in Wikipedia map it shows 30-60% in W.Iran is it true?

[Pip]

Question: percentage of R1b-Z2103 in Western Iran, Turkmenistan, in Wikipedia map it shows 30-60% in W.Iran is it true?

Where is this map? I doubt it. Perhaps at the lower end of this range in the districts bordering Armenia, but I don't think so as a whole.

[Pip]

Just as an exemple, do we know if the Cogotas R1b-DF27 falls into modern DF27 branches or is it a dead lineage branch? If it's a dead one, what does it have different than Z2103 samples from the Steppe?

Cogotas looks like a dead lineage, although its nearest modern relatives are also Iberian (estimated split point - late 3rd millennium BC, per yfull). It has an autosomal profile that looks similar to other Bronze Age Iberia (a mix of Northern Bell Beaker, El Portalon and Iberian Neolithic). Is this a trick question?

[nornosh]

Where is this map? I doubt it. Perhaps at the lower end of this range in the districts bordering Armenia, but I don't think so as a whole.

the map is in R1b article. in Turkmenistan it shows very high figures too yet some say its mistaken with hg Q but I say how come they mistake it for hg Q which is so different you can't just mistake different haplogroups in tests so it must be R1b. I have seen some Turkmen pictures they do resemble Eurasian populations more.
by the the way in Kabul, Afghanistan in general there are big populations of Iranic people do they share similar mixture with Iranians( R1b, J2,...) or not? I think they(we) could be R1b-heavy too plz provide me some links anyone.

[halfalp]

Cogotas looks like a dead lineage, although its nearest modern relatives are also Iberian (estimated split point - late 3rd millennium BC, per yfull). It has an autosomal profile that looks similar to other Bronze Age Iberia (a mix of Northern Bell Beaker, El Portalon and Iberian Neolithic). Is this a trick question?

Not necessarily a trick question, but a proof that a dead lineage from a modern branch can be prehistorically in his modern distribution. All R1b from Ukraine are mostly Z2103, even tho their branch is not the one found in Yamnaya, its related just the TMRCA is younger than Yamnaya just as the Cogotas one. Probably there will never be ancient dna from some Armenian R1b of Chalcolithic that already have the modern living branches found there.

[halfalp]

the map is in R1b article. in Turkmenistan it shows very high figures too yet some say its mistaken with hg Q but I say how come they mistake it for hg Q which is so different you can't just mistake different haplogroups in tests so it must be R1b. I have seen some Turkmen pictures they do resemble Eurasian populations more.
by the the way in Kabul, Afghanistan in general there are big populations of Iranic people do they share similar mixture with Iranians( R1b, J2,...) or not? I think they(we) could be R1b-heavy too plz provide me some links anyone.

If i remember from a few years, the Turkmenistan R1b falls mostly in the eastern R1b-M73 branch not Z2103.

[Pip]

the map is in R1b article. in Turkmenistan it shows very high figures too yet some say its mistaken with hg Q but I say how come they mistake it for hg Q which is so different you can't just mistake different haplogroups in tests so it must be R1b. I have seen some Turkmen pictures they do resemble Eurasian populations more.
by the the way in Kabul, Afghanistan in general there are big populations of Iranic people do they share similar mixture with Iranians( R1b, J2,...) or not? I think they(we) could be R1b-heavy too plz provide me some links anyone.

The only likely Z2103 I can find in Turkmenistan is of the Steppic branch, rather than the South Caucasus/Iranian branches. It is very similar to samples from Ukraine and Belarus, and my guess is that it is of relatively recent Russian paternal ancestry.

[Pip]

Not necessarily a trick question, but a proof that a dead lineage from a modern branch can be prehistorically in his modern distribution. All R1b from Ukraine are mostly Z2103, even tho their branch is not the one found in Yamnaya, its related just the TMRCA is younger than Yamnaya just as the Cogotas one. Probably there will never be ancient dna from some Armenian R1b of Chalcolithic that already have the modern living branches found there.

Of course, it is possible that a dead lineage can be found in a similar location to its most recent modern relatives - all other things being equal, this is the most likely location for it to be found. But when a sample of a dead lineage is found in a different location to its most recent modern relatives, this does not tell us much, particularly when the coalescence points of each of its most recent modern relatives are distributed over a very wide area.

An interesting ancient Z2103 sample is I5884 (2,800 BC) from Ukraine, which has some inconsistent-looking SNP readings suggestive of one of its South Caucasus branches - the one that I estimate was most recently-related to the Steppe branch. It is what would usually be called an 'outlier', but most people cannot bring themselves to call it this, as they are so wedded to the idea of Z2103 being synonymous with the Steppe and not an outlier to it. It has virtually no CHG, a huge amount of WHG, plenty of EHG and Anatolian, and appears to bear little autosomal similarity to Yamnayan Z2103 samples. How would you suggest it might have got there?

[halfalp]

Your individual genetic signature looks way more like what an original Bell Beaker should be than a prehistoric Armenian, dont know where you want to go here. It then means that the South Caucasus branches came from Steppe following your own reasoning, just that they were slightly different than the general Yamnaya signature. Wich funny enough, gives even way more credit to the Balkans road hypothesis for Anatolians and Armenians comparing it to the Caucasus road hypothesis.

[Pip]

Your individual genetic signature looks way more like what an original Bell Beaker should be than a prehistoric Armenian, dont know where you want to go here. It then means that the South Caucasus branches came from Steppe following your own reasoning, just that they were slightly different than the general Yamnaya signature. Wich funny enough, gives even way more credit to the Balkans road hypothesis for Anatolians and Armenians comparing it to the Caucasus road hypothesis.

I'm not going anywhere in particular, and am not tied to any particular viewpoint. As I say, I'm just curious.

This is only one sample, so we cannot conclude too much from it - but its signature must have come from somewhere, and it does not seem to fit at all with Yamnaya. (If it acquired its EHG from any variety of Yamnaya, it would have far more CHG in it.)

I've had a hard time simulating a close fit to any combination of ancient populations, but coming at it laterally I've just found a very close fit indeed - Eastern Baltic Neolithic + Balkan Chalcolithic + Globular Amphora. This would suggest that it probably was an outsider to its Dnieper location, with all three best-fit ancestral components coming from a similar longitude to its West. My guess is that it was brought from the Dniester with GAC not long beforehand (i.e. post-3,000 BC). The question is - from where would it have acquired its Z2103? As GAC looks to be principally an I2a population, the Eastern Baltic and the Eastern Balkans look the only likely candidates.

[halfalp]

I'm not going anywhere in particular, and am not tied to any particular viewpoint. As I say, I'm just curious.

This is only one sample, so we cannot conclude too much from it - but its signature must have come from somewhere, and it does not seem to fit at all with Yamnaya. (If it acquired its EHG from any variety of Yamnaya, it would have far more CHG in it.)

I've had a hard time simulating a close fit to any combination of ancient populations, but coming at it laterally I've just found a very close fit indeed - Eastern Baltic Neolithic + Balkan Chalcolithic + Globular Amphora. This would suggest that it probably was an outsider to its Dnieper location, with all three best-fit ancestral components coming from a similar longitude to its West. My guess is that it was brought from the Dniester with GAC not long beforehand (i.e. post-3,000 BC). The question is - from where would it have acquired its Z2103? As GAC looks to be principally an I2a population, the Eastern Baltic and the Eastern Balkans look the only likely candidates.

Things to remind is that Eastern Europe is huge, very huge. Z2103 probably have a more eastern distribution while I2a2 have a western one. But that's only taking accounts samples we have, and this individual could be a more western individual with an eastern lineage.

[Pip]

Things to remind is that Eastern Europe is huge, very huge. Z2103 probably have a more eastern distribution while I2a2 have a western one. But that's only taking accounts samples we have, and this individual could be a more western individual with an eastern lineage.

I suspect his lineage went around the Pontic and through the Balkans/Carpathians with L51, then retreated up the Dniester admixing with WHG on the Chalcolithic collapse. It is probably quite distantly related to Yamnaya.