halfalp
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- Ethnic group
- Swiss
- Y-DNA haplogroup
- R-L2
- mtDNA haplogroup
- J1c5a
I've made no estimate of what has happened between Yamnaya and now.
On the contrary, it is the idea that Z2103 emerged on the Steppe and separated into lots of different branches (nearly all of which stuck together for thousands of years before migrating en masse to Armenia) that is based on a highly implausible underestimate of how Yamnaya and its descendants would have developed and spread around.
Of course it does. People with Z2103 nowadays are only Z2103 nowadays because their joint ancestor acquired the Z2103 mutation in those times.
No, I said that I wasn't so interested in dead lines.
I'm not dictating anything. I am merely noting where SNP and STR calculations indicate is the most likely point of common origin.
But this isn't what happened. There were lots of branches that subsisted South of the Caucasus, not just one. And the one branch in the Pontic Steppe was not entirely replaced by R1a, but still subsists today just as numerously (if not more so) than the Armenian branches.
There is nothing misleading about it.
Firstly, any Z2103* found in the prehistoric Pontic Steppe is pretty unlikely to be an ancestor of today's Eastern European Z2103 people, as (i) I estimate that Z2103 had already separated into its surviving subclades earlier on, and (ii) nearly all such ancient Z2103 lineages would have died out (Z2108 being the only steppic looking one).
Secondly, you are not going back far enough. The question is where did the basal development of living Z2103 occur? If there is one half-steppic/half-Southern Caucasus basal branch and three wholly Southern Caucasus basal branches, the balance surely tips in favour of their most recent common ancestor having been South Caucasian.
That is not to say that Z2103 was not in the Steppe from early on. There might well have been lots of Z2103 lineages in the early Steppe that became extinct; and one from an estimated 4,200 BC (Z8131) that survived and flourished there.
If you say so i guess. Your window for the formation of Z2103 in Armenia is contemporary with Areni in Armenia ( No R1b ), then the same contemporary population founded Maykop later ( No R1b ). We are then searching a population that never exister for now in ancient DNA, maybe one day it will show.
But i stay on my position that your estimations are a wrong methodology to explain ancient dna. Founder effects can litterally create a new origin for a lineage, V88 in Africa is a good exemple.