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Thread: Ice Age , Sahara desert, Earth's wobble and the Gulf Stream

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    Axial Tilt
    Axial tilt, the second of the three Milankovitch Cycles, is the inclination of the Earth's axis in relation to its plane of orbit around the Sun. Oscillations in the degree of Earth's axial tilt occur on a periodicity of 41,000 years from 21.5 to 24.5 degrees.

    Today the Earth's axial tilt is about 23.5 degrees, which largely accounts for our seasons. Because of the periodic variations of this angle the severity of the Earth's seasons changes. With less axial tilt the Sun's solar radiation is more evenly distributed between winter and summer. However, less tilt also increases the difference in radiation receipts between the equatorial and polar regions.
    One hypothesis for Earth's reaction to a smaller degree of axial tilt is that it would promote the growth of ice sheets. This response would be due to a warmer winter, in which warmer air would be able to hold more moisture, and subsequently produce a greater amount of snowfall. In addition, summer temperatures would be cooler, resulting in less melting of the winter's accumulation. At present, axial tilt is in the middle of its range.

    Last edited by oriental; 01-05-15 at 00:40. Reason: readability

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    Precession
    The third and final of the Milankovitch Cycles is Earth's precession. Precession is the Earth's slow wobble as it spins on axis. This wobbling of the Earth on its axis can be likened to a top running down, and beginning to wobble back and forth on its axis. The precession of Earth wobbles from pointing at Polaris (North Star)to pointing at the star Vega. When this shift to the axis pointing at Vega occurs, Vega would then be considered the North Star. This top-like wobble, or precession, has a periodicity of 23,000 years.

    Due to this wobble a climatically significant alteration must take place. When the axis is tilted towards Vega the positions of the Northern Hemisphere winter and summer solstices will coincide with the aphelion and perihelion, respectively. This means that the Northern Hemisphere will experience winter when the Earth is furthest from the Sun and summer when the Earth is closest to the Sun. This coincidence will result in greater seasonal contrasts. At present, the Earth is at perihelion very close to the winter solstice.

    http://theresilientearth.com/?q=cont...-interglacials

    http://theresilientearth.com/files/images/past_10_interglacials-yin_natgeo2010.png

    http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm

    <font color="#000000"><span style="font-family: Times New Roman"><a href="http://www.indiana.edu/~geol105/images/gaia_chapter_4/milankovitch.htm" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">

    Last edited by oriental; 30-04-15 at 22:27. Reason: readability

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    While we are at Sahara desert I think the Egyptians should think about creating an inland lake by Libyan desert depression by opening a channel to the Mediterranean Sea. There are depressions below sea level in various parts of the world vis-a-vis:

    Egypt - Libyan desert Depression
    China - Taklamakan desert depression
    Australia -
    Israel - Dead Sea
    USA - Death Valley
    Eritria -
    Kazakhstan - near Caspian Sea
    Last edited by oriental; 01-05-15 at 00:22. Reason: spelling

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    http://theresilientearth.com/?q=cont...ntrol-ice-ages
    Causes

    The prevailing theory is that the Younger Dryas was caused by significant reduction or shutdown of the North Atlantic "Conveyor", which circulates warm tropical waters northward, in response to a sudden influx of fresh water from Lake Agassiz and deglaciation in North America. Geological evidence for such an event is thus far lacking.[15] The global climate would then have become locked into the new state until freezing removed the fresh water "lid" from the north Atlantic Ocean.An alternative theory suggests instead that the jet stream shifted northward in response to the changing topographic forcing of the melting North American ice sheet, bringing more rain to the North Atlantic which freshened the ocean surface enough to slow the thermohaline circulation.[16] There is also some evidence that a solar flare may have been responsible for the mega faunal extinction, though it cannot explain the apparent variability in the extinction across all continents.[17]

    <span style="font-family: Times New Roman"><sup><a href="file:///E:/downloads/Firefox/ice%20age/Younger%20Dryas%20-%20Wikipedia,%20the%20free%20encyclopedia.htm#cite _note-17" target="_blank" rel="nofollow"><font size="2"><font color="#0000ff">

    Last edited by oriental; 01-05-15 at 00:44.

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    There is evidence that some previous glacial terminations had post glacial cooling periods similar to the Younger Dryas.[18]




    <span style="font-family: Times New Roman">
    Last edited by oriental; 30-04-15 at 21:42. Reason: readability

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    Shown above is a comparison of the benthic δ18O record through T-I (orange crosses;plotted on the upper timescale) and T-II (black crosses; plotted on the lower timescale), showing similarities in the duration of both terminations. Southern Hemisphere summer insolation at 65°S (blue) and obliquity curves (red) for T-I (dashed lines) and T-II (solid lines), and obliquity. The gray vertical bar marks the commencement points for both terminations,revealing an age difference of ~123,000 years, which is equivalent to three obliquity cycles of ~41,000 years each. As the author's put it: “Our record reveals that Terminations I and II are separated by three obliquity cycles and that they started at near-identical obliquity phases.”
    Last edited by oriental; 29-04-15 at 00:14.

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    The images don't show. Too bad

    <span style="font-family: Times New Roman">
    Last edited by oriental; 30-04-15 at 21:38.

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    Luckily the orbit of the earth is a near circle. When the orbit is an ellipse the difference in sun's radiation can be from 20 or 30% i.e. the difference when the earth is closer to the sun (perihelion) and when it farther away (aphelion)

    http://www.skepticalscience.com/Milankovitch.html.

    It is snow cover that is the main culprit for the Ice Age as it reflect the sunlight away from the earth. Stagnant snow and accumulated snow results in ice and the ice can block the flow of ocean currents thus preventing warm currents that give warmth to continents by way of warm ocean breezes. The Ice Age is mostly a northern hemispheric phenomenon as most land masses are in the north. Russia and Canada are the two largest countries in the world and they are near the North Pole.

    How the snow/ice affects CO2? The snow/ice buries the trees thus killing them and the animals living there. Trees at night respire like all living creatures by taking in oxygen and breathing out CO2. Carbon is locked in thus disrupting the carbon cycle.

    I guess we must take stock of the situation and prepare for the onset of the Ice Age. We must take advantage of the global warming and do the necessary work to install infrastructure to combat snow buildup. Maybe power stations could be installed further up north. Black soot or dust can be piled up to be spread over the snow after snowfalls. Plant trees on barren land and burn fossil fuels. Have tracked snow plows to gather snow in piles to reduce surface area the snow may take. Place dynamite where ice bridges may form to block warm ocean currents that flow north, etc.
    Last edited by oriental; 01-05-15 at 00:34.

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    Ice Age death trap


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    A real COLD War should be declared not against nations but against the cold to fight the Ice Age. The northern countries need to co-operate or they could become refugees to the south. Russia, Canada, Scandinavian countries, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Northern Germany, UK would be affected and Korea and Northern China and the Central Asia like Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan would also be affected.
    Last edited by oriental; 02-05-15 at 22:12.

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    Death of the Ice Man


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    Quote Originally Posted by oriental View Post
    A real COLD War should be declared not against nations but against the cold to fight the Ice Age. The northern countries need to co-operate or they could become refugees to the south. Russia, Canada, Scandinavian countries, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Belarus, Ukraine, Northern Germany, Uk would be affected and Korea and Northern China and the Central Asia like Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Tajikistan would also be affected.
    it's good to hear another opinion for once
    i don't think there will come a new ice age because of global warming

    but i'm sick of people discussing global warming without knowing anything about climate
    they should study ice age first before talking

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    I am not in either camp but like to look at the issue objectively.



    I forgot to take into account of human civilization. Since the great ice melt there has been many large cities that in the north e.g. Moscow, Toronto, Montreal, Helsinki, Stockholm, Copenhagen, Hamburg, Berlin, London, New York, Chicago, etc. These cities produce a lot of heat in winter nights. Then the millions of cars, trucks, ships and airplanes produce heat and CO2 which help insulate earth so up to 22 degrees mark where the Tropic of Cancer 3,416 years from now is the neutral point, there will not likely be an Ice Age. Of course, it depends on the energy situation. Will we run out of oil? We could switch to nuclear energy.

    After 22 degrees mark the tropical region will shrink as the Tropic of Cancer heads towards 21.5 degrees. However, the earth's orbit is nearly circular so the energy input is the same except it is concentrated in the tropical region. But then the northern hemisphere will receive less sunshine and this is where little Ice Ages could occur in the northern regions. Little Ice Ages could be nasty as shown by the video above. It won't be until the earth's orbit turn to an elliptical path when the REAL Ice Age could occur with sun's radiation from the perihelion point (nearest to the sun) and the aphelion (farthest point from the sun) could differ by 20 to 30 %. The period in which this change is 100,000 years long enough time for humans if they survive to devise means to offset the Ice Age.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earth%27s_orbit

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Milankovitch_cycles

    http://www.sciencecourseware.org/eec.../milankovitch/
    Last edited by oriental; 02-05-15 at 22:24. Reason: spelling and omissions

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    I have been thinking. With the earth now entering the cooling cycle the Arctic Ocean may not be ice-free in the foreseeable future. Energy from human activity cannot match reduction of sun's radiation as it starts going south. It might have to be in the next warming cycle i.e. 23.5 degrees -> 22.5 -> to 21.5 degrees (2 degrees = 13,666 year) back to 22.5 to 23.5 degrees (another 2 degrees = 13,666 years) or 27,332 years, provided we can keep ice from forming during this period.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oriental View Post
    I have been thinking. With the earth now entering the cooling cycle the Arctic Ocean may not be ice-free in the foreseeable future. Energy from human activity cannot match reduction of sun's radiation as it starts going south. It might have to be in the next warming cycle i.e. 23.5 degrees -> 22.5 -> to 21.5 degrees (2 degrees = 13,666 year) back to 22.5 to 23.5 degrees (another 2 degrees = 13,666 years) or 27,332 years, provided we can keep ice from forming during this period.
    That's why releasing CO2 to counteract Ice Age is a good thing.
    Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by oriental View Post
    While we are at Sahara desert I think the Egyptians should think about creating an inland lake by Libyan desert depression by opening a channel to the Mediterranean Sea. There are depressions below sea level in various parts of the world vis-a-vis:

    Egypt - Libyan desert Depression
    The Egyptians are already doing that. It is bound to fail though. The evaporation will cause an increase in salt content.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toshka_Lakes

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    The Egyptians are already doing that. It is bound to fail though. The evaporation will cause an increase in salt content.
    There is a difference. The Toshka Lakes would be replenished by the Nile. The lakes would would not form as the evaporation rate exceeds the water inflow to the lakes.

    My idea to create the inland lake takes Mediterranean Sea water to fill the depression. It is ocean water so it will not dry up. From the African Sahara video this depression was probably one of the mega lakes when the Sahara was green. However, there is a downside to my proposal. The aquifers which contain fresh water from the ancient mega lakes would be tainted with salty sea water. Anyway, it is estimated the Sahara will turn green in 15,000 years.

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    Here is what I was thinking over the weekend. As the Tropic of Cancer moves south the northern hemisphere will lose a certain amount of sunshine and we think it won't be much. That is very wrong. Here is a rough estimate:

    It takes 6,833 years to move the Tropic of Cancer 1 degree. 1 degree is 70 miles or 70 * 5280 feet. So in one year the sun would drop (70 * 5280)/6833 = 54 feet. In one year the northern hemisphere loses 54 feet of sunshine. We can laugh. But look at it this way.

    54 feet by the circumference of the earth which is 25,000 miles. Imagines 25,000 miles broken into 30 feet slices. 54 feet by 30 feet is the size of a home. (25000 * 5280)/30 = 4,400,000 homes. That is 4 cities of 1 million moving south in one year. In 6,833 years (6833 * 4400000) = 30,065,200,000 or 30,000 cities moving south. The heat from these "sun" homes are heated to tropical temperatures i.e. 90 degrees F.

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    No. Countries Population x million
    1 Canada 33
    2 Russia 140
    3 Norway 8
    4 Sweden 10
    5 Finland 12
    6 Denmark 8
    7 Poland 50
    8 Ukraine 40
    9 Belarus 30
    10 Germany 80
    11 France 70
    12 UK 60
    13 Ireland 8
    14 North Korea 30
    15 South Korea 50
    16 Japan 100
    17 Northern China 500
    18 Total 1229

    year solar cities
    1 4.4
    2 8.8
    3 13.2
    4 17.6
    5 22
    6 26.4
    7 30.8
    8 35.2
    9 39.6
    10 44
    10 44
    20 88
    30 132
    40 176
    50 220
    60 264
    70 308
    80 352
    90 396
    100 440
    110 484
    120 528
    130 572
    140 616
    150 660
    160 704
    170 748
    180 792
    190 836
    200 880
    210 924
    220 968
    230 1012
    240 1056
    250 1100
    260 1144
    270 1188
    280 1232
    290 1276
    300
    1320
    310 1364
    320 1408
    330 1452
    340 1496
    350 1540
    360 1584
    370 1628
    380 1672
    390 1716
    400 1760



    The above are countries likely to have homes heated in winter to 72 degrees F. The population figures are rough. Now suppose each person had a home so the total winter heating homes would be 1,229,000,000 homes. The human homes do compensate very well for the yearly loss of the sun's radiation. But it equal a century and a half of heat loss from the sun's move to the south i.e. the equivalent "solar" homes after a century is 440,000,000 which 440 million homes so global warming from human cities would still keep the northern hemisphere warm. It will definitely be colder in 300 years as the heat loss is (4.4 million * 300) = 1,320 million, or 1.32 billion, "solar" homes lost.
    Last edited by oriental; 05-05-15 at 21:46. Reason: errors

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    The Sahara video mentioned that it oscillates every 20,000 years from green to desert. It turned to full desert 5,000 years ago and in 15,000 years it will turn green. The Sahara turned into desert at the apex or high point of the Milankovitch cycle i.e. when the Tropic of Cancer was 24.5 degrees. The times since 24.5 degrees to today at 23.5 degrees is 6,833 years. The time to 21.5 degrees is 13,666 years from now. The time from 24.5 to 21.5 is 21,000 years. so the Sahara turns green when the tropical region is hottest. Probably the summer rains or the monsoons start around 22.5 degrees. It takes 6,833 years by the time the Tropic of Cancer is at 21.5 degrees. What this means is that it takes roughly 5,000 years to turn the Sahara desert to green as regular monsoon rains begin falling. But it lasts until the Tropic of Cancer reaches 23.5 degrees when the northern hemisphere once again gets sunshine but the sun is directly over the Sahara so it will start drying up and the monsoon rains subside and disappear.
    Last edited by oriental; 05-05-15 at 21:39. Reason: errors

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    What does it mean when the tropics get warmer? There are three effects.

    1. More cloud cover means sunlight is deflected so loss of heat.
    2. Warmer tropical ocean temperatures -> possibly warmer Gulf Stream and more hurricanes?
    3. Q, heat = mass x specific heat x temperature difference means the faster heat loss to space. CO2 may help as it captures long wave radiation while short wave radiation escape.

    The last time when the Tropic of cancer was at 22.5 degrees (41,000 - 6,833 = 34,167 years ago) there was the just before the LGM.

    Beyond the last Milankovitch cycle at (41,000 + 34,167 = 75,167 years ago) it wasn't so ice cold and mammoths and mastodons were killed in Colorado as shown in the Ice Age death trap video.
    Last edited by oriental; 07-05-15 at 23:08.

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    A new study of East Africa’s ancient climate now reveals that lush tropical Africa suffered from severe megadroughts between 135,000 and 75,000 years ago, which may have forced early humans to look for greener pastures.
    They found that lake water levels dropped by as much as 600 meters, or about 95 percent of the lake’s volume, during two periods between 135,000 and 75,000 years ago
    degree year differential time, BP
    22.5
    6,833.33
    21.5 150,333.33 Hot equator -> drier tropics
    6,833.33 warming
    22.5 143,500.00 warming
    6,833.33 warming
    note 23.5 136,666.67 warming
    note 6,833.33 warming
    note 24.5 129,833.33 warm period
    note 6,833.33 125,000 eccentric orbit -> drier tropics?
    note 23.5 123,000.00 cooling
    note 6,833.33 cooling
    note 22.5 116,166.67 cooling
    note 6,833.33 cooling
    note 21.5 109,333.33 Hot equator -> drier tropics
    note 6,833.33 warming
    note 22.5 102,500.00 warming
    note 6,833.33 warming
    note 23.5 95,666.67 warming
    note 6,833.33 warming
    note 24.5 88,833.33 warm period
    note 6,833.33 cooling
    note 23.5 82,000.00 cooling
    note 6,833.33 cooling
    note 22.5 75,166.67 cooling
    6,833.33 (74,000 years ago) Super volcano eruption Toba
    21.5 68,333.33 Hot equator -> drier tropics
    6,833.33 warming
    22.5 61,500.00 warming
    6,833.33 warming
    23.5 54,666.67 warming
    6,833.33 warming
    24.5 47,833.33 warm period
    6,833.33 cooling
    23.5 41,000.00 cooling
    6,833.33 cooling
    22.5 34,166.67 cooling
    6,833.33 cooling
    21.5 27,333.33 Hot equator -> drier tropics
    6,833.33 warming
    22.5 20,500.00 warming LGM
    6,833.33 warming
    23.5 13,666.67 warming
    6,833.33 warming Dryas
    24.5 6,833.33 warm period
    6,833.33 cooling
    Today 23.5 0 cooling
    6,833.33 cooling
    22.5 -6,833.33 cooling
    6,833.33 cooling
    21.5 -13,666.67 Hot equator -> drier tropics
    6,833.33
    22.5


    Lake Malawi is situated within the tropical area, south of the equator close to 20 degrees.

    The 1 degree calculation is corrected as follows from excel spreadsheet:

    radian sin earth's radius, miles distance, miles
    1 0.0175 0.0175 4000 69.81


    http://www.geotimes.org/dec07/articl...migration.html

    http://www.worldatlas.com/webimage/countrys/africa/mw.htm
    Last edited by oriental; 11-05-15 at 21:15.

  23. #48
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    Early humans. What I find disturbing is that the geographical maps used are of the 20th century variety and not at the period for the humans at the Ice Age. Sundaland is not shown and lower sea levels not indicated and alternating Sahara desert and green Sahara every 20,000 years not shown. No wonder they twist and turn to explain how humans got here from there with ocean or sea shown when actually there were land bridges and green grassland instead of barren desert.

    http://essayweb.net/history/ancient/prehistory.shtml
    Last edited by oriental; 06-05-15 at 23:38.

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    Early humans were already 'culturally diverse'

    http://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2014-08-15-...verse%E2%80%99

  25. #50
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    74,000 years ago Toba super volcano in Indonesia erupted. The Ice Age may have damped some of the damage from ash and heat in the northern hemisphere. It would have aided in warming the earth as the ash covered the snow and ice and reduced the deflection of the sun's radiation.

    http://www.bradshawfoundation.com/journey/toba2.html

    http://www.sciencedaily.com/terms/to...phe_theory.htm

    http://www.livescience.com/29130-tob...o-effects.html

    http://toba.arch.ox.ac.uk/

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Toba_catastrophe_theory

    These reports or studies don't seem to realize there was an Ice Age 70,000 years ago. They talk of winter created from ash and drop of temperature. The situation is opposite as it was in the cold part of the Ice Age.

    One must also consider the deeper the earth or core sample comes from the thinner it gets as the earth pressure increases with greater depth. The deeper and older samples are compressed more thus slightly thinner so estimates could be off a bit if they measure only by depth and not carbon dating.
    Last edited by oriental; 11-05-15 at 21:00.

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