Early expansion of R1a-M198/M417 in the light of aDNA evidence

[Tomenable]

Together with Mathieson's updated paper, a fairly good picture of how R1a M198/M417 probably arose and spread emerges. The 3 oldest so far samples of R1a, dated between 6000-7500 ybp (4000-5500 BC) - one from Khvalynsk at the Volga (4700-4000 BC), one from Serteya near Velizh (4000 BC) and one from a sacred burial ground located at Red Deer Island in Karelia (5500-5000 BC). We can draw a triangle connecting these three points, and I guess that the area in between represents the range of R1a M420 carriers in period 6000-4000 BC. But of course carriers of M198 (TMRCA of which was ~6000 BC according to Y-Full) and of M417 (which emerged around the same time when M198 had its TMRCA) could live only in some specific part of that area. The most likely option is to go for the Volga steppe around Khvalynsk as the cradle of M198/M417:

http://s1.postimg.org/di5tzku0d/Earl...f_R1a_M198.png



http://s8.postimg.org/qdljaaap1/All_R1a_Samples_Map.png

[Sile]

Together with Mathieson's updated paper, a fairly good picture of how R1a M198/M417 probably arose and spread emerges. The 3 oldest so far samples of R1a, dated between 6000-7500 ybp (4000-5500 BC) - one from Khvalynsk at the Volga (4700-4000 BC), one from Serteya near Velizh (4000 BC) and one from a sacred burial ground located at Red Deer Island in Karelia (5500-5000 BC). We can draw a triangle connecting these three points, and I guess that the area in between represents the range of R1a M420 carriers in period 6000-4000 BC. But of course carriers of M198 (TMRCA of which was ~6000 BC according to Y-Full) and of M417 (which emerged around the same time when M198 had its TMRCA) could live only in some specific part of that area. The most likely option is to go for the Volga steppe around Khvalynsk as the cradle of M198/M417:

http://s1.postimg.org/di5tzku0d/Earl...f_R1a_M198.png



http://s8.postimg.org/qdljaaap1/All_R1a_Samples_Map.png

map clearly states that when R1a and R1b split, R1a initially went east ...............and R1b went west to settle yamnya before R1a got there

[Tomenable]

map clearly states that when R1a and R1b split, R1a initially went east ...............and R1b went west

This map doesn't show any R1b, only R1a. I will probably make a similar map for R1b too, but later.

In this map a split within R1a-M198 can be seen: Z93 went east, while Z283 and CTS4385 went west.

R1b went west to settle yamnya before R1a got there

New samples from updated version of Mathieson's paper from the Volga region change everything.

R1a no longer seems to be a "late arrival", mainly due to the Khvalynsk sample (from ca. 4700 BC):

Moreover, there appears to be a continuous presence of R1a in this region from 4700 BC to 200 BC:

Map: http://s8.postimg.org/p4z1arxk3/Volga_Region.png

[bicicleur]

In this map a split within R1a-M198 can be seen: Z93 went east, while Z283 and CTS4385 went west.

and then there are the Tarim mummies who were neither of them
a lost tribe that went extinct?

[Tomenable]

^ All we know about those mummies, is that they were M198+.

Maybe they were Z283 (there is some in Asia) or M417*, or ???

a lost tribe that went extinct?

They probably didn't go extinct, but got absorbed by Uyghurs.

Uyghur R1a is not well known, there is no data on subclades.

[Tomenable]

I've made a similar map showing expansion of R1b, even though the number of currently available Ancient samples of R1b is lower than the number of R1a samples, and the picture of its early expansion is still more blurred. However, what is remarkable is that the oldest known samples of R1b - if not counting Iberian V88 - are from exactly the same peoples and cultures, as the oldest samples of R1a - namely from EHGs (burial at Sok River near the Volga, close to Samara) and Khvalynsk culture (sample from Khvalynsk at the Volga):

http://s1.postimg.org/r1lbqot7h/Early_R1b_expansion.png



It also does not seem from currently available samples, that R1b M269/L23 expanded first and R1a M198/M417 later. Rather it seems, that the beginning of territorial (not demographic) expansion of both haplogroups from the steppe was roughly at the same time.

[bicicleur]

nice maps
what program do you use?

[Tomenable]

I use GIMP and Paint but at first I took screenshots from Google Maps.

In GIMP you can create partially transparent layers over a basemap.