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Thread: I2a1b2a1 (I-CTS10228) - a strong marker of Slavic expansion

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    Post I2a1b2a1 (I-CTS10228) - a strong marker of Slavic expansion

    A subclade of I2a1 called I2a1b2a1, defined by SNP CTS10228, shows a very strong correlation with the distribution of Slavic peoples. Moreover, the time of most recent common ancestor (TMRCA) for males carrying this subclade, is estimated by YFull as just 2200 years ago (ybp), shortly before Christ:

    http://yfull.com/tree/I-L621/

    http://isogg.org/tree/ISOGG_HapgrpI.html

    https://lundiak.wordpress.com/2015/01/09/i2...aka-i-cts10228/

    I'm not sure what percent of entire I2a1 in Europe belongs to I2a1b2a1 - but surely in Slavic and neighbouring countries it is the majority. I guess, that at over a dozen million males carry this subclade (while in total all subclades of I2a1 are carried in Slavic countries by an estimated 20 million males and in neighbouring countries by another close to 6 million). Some of the most basal subclades of CTS10228 as well as CTS4002 were found in Polish people.

    This sample (Y-Full number YF03513) is from Świętokrzyskie Voivodeship (SK) in Poland (PL):

    I-CTS4002* - id:YF03513 POL [PL-SK]

    In FTDNA this kit has identification number N113464, it belongs to a male from Moskorzew:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Moskorzew

    Another basal sample from Poland is from Subcarpathian (Podkarpackie = PK) Voivodeship:

    I-CTS10228* id:YF01476 POL [PL-PK]

    ================================================== ======

    The route from haplogroup I2, via I2a, I2a1 (P37), I2a1b2 (L621) up to this very young but very numerous I2a1b2a1 (CTS10228):

    http://s13.postimg.org/ossn8zu7r/I2a1b2a1.png



    Here a map showing the distribution of I2a1b2 (L621):

    Vast majority of L621 is also under CTS10228, while men with more basal subclades of L621 are relatively few:
    The map posted below is courtesy of user Gravetto-Danubian from Anthrogenica:

    http://s16.postimg.org/7ttndgt8l/Hg_...requency_B.jpg



    For comparison a map showing all of I2a1 (P37):

    http://cdn.eupedia.com/images/conten...ogroup_I2a.gif



    Here an alternative map of I2a1b, but a very old one (from O. Balanovsky 2008):

    At that time I1b was the name for what is today known as I2a1b (M423):

    http://i.imgur.com/YIV0TQD.jpg




    In Ukraine about 20.5% - 22% of all males are carriers of I2a1 - probably great majority of them belong to subclade I2a1b2a1:

    http://s21.postimg.org/ukyhut6pj/Ukraina_Y_DNA.jpg



    According to Kushnierevich 2013, in the region of Polesia (Belarus-Ukraine borderland), 26% of males (56 out of 217) carry I2a1.

    In Russia over 1/10 of men carry I2a1. In Slovakia - ca. 1/6. In Czech Rep. - ca. 1/10. In Slovenia - as many as in Ukraine (over 1/5). In Macedonia - up to 1/4. In Serbia - ca. 1/3. This marker correlates with Slavic people just as strongly as R1a, in some regions even more strongly:

    http://www.eupedia.com/europe/europe...logroups.shtml
    Last edited by LeBrok; 13-11-16 at 05:36. Reason: Added credits for map making.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    According to Y-Full, this subclade formed already 5500 years ago, but existed in very marginal numbers throughout the next 3300 years (ca. 130 generations) - starting a more serious demographical expansion only around 2200 years ago (TMRCA according to Y-Full). I suppose, that between 5500 ybp and 2200 ybp, carriers of this clade lived as a small group of people in the region of Polesia (also known as the Pripet Marshes), which most likely was a kind of refugium for them. Only around year 200 BC they probably started moving out of Polesia, and started to increase in numbers, mixing with neighbouring R1a groups and forming the Proto-Slavic community (who then started their famous expansion several centuries later).

    Today frequency of I2a1 is still higher in Polesia (ca. 26%) than in neighbouring regions of Belarus (ca. 17%) or Ukraine (ca. 20%).

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    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
    Here is a current rendering of my genetics that are located in the heart of the geographical area you describe. FTDNA has cts10228 as my terminal clade. YFull S17250+ and Y4882*
    Overview: http://www.singingfalls.com/dna.html
    and this image specifically: ethnic_ftdna.jpg

    Please excuse the subjective and personal side of the site. Great great grandfather was from Khrabuzna, Khmelnytskyl, Ukraine.

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    Finally ,you have access to I2a1b... aDNA.Wow!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    A subclade of I2a1 called I2a1b2a1,






    l
    It doesn't look particularly West Slavis. Either West Slavs come from a different tribe, with very low level of L621 or West Slavs are Slavicized locals.
    Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by singingfalls View Post
    Here is a current rendering of my genetics that are located in the heart of the geographical area you describe. FTDNA has cts10228 as my terminal clade. YFull S17250+ and Y4882*
    Overview: http://www.singingfalls.com/dna.html
    and this image specifically: ethnic_ftdna.jpg

    Please excuse the subjective and personal side of the site. Great great grandfather was from Khrabuzna, Khmelnytskyl, Ukraine.
    Great and informative website / blog Singingfalls, thank you!

    Quote Originally Posted by Le Brok
    Either West Slavs come from a different tribe, with very low level of L621 or West Slavs are Slavicized locals.
    Probably from a different branch / tribe of Slavs, with less I2a.

    But all Slavic groups assimilated (Slavicized) some locals as well.

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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    I've just a modest theory: Y-I2a1b was present in all Balkans and Carpathians and it bearers for the most were pushed or retrated at first Neolithic people arrival into mountainous regions. In West (Dalmatia, Dinaric Alps, for the most) they lived longer at the mergins of newcomers, staying in little numbers. in East, they were progressively acculturated (when?) and took some profit of the Tripolye Cucuteniculture before being incorporated in the Slavs culture,underrunning a strong demographic development after sedentization of these Slavs. I think they could have worked in the separation of Slavs and Balts. Czechs and Yugoslavs (and Bulgarians) are "less" slavic in origin, spite showing distinct history one from another.

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    FTDNA data base has confirmed my terminal SNP to be I-A7358. Updates here: http://www.singingfalls.com/dna.html#ydna_updates There are three individuals in the database currently with this SNP. It is also listed in the Slovakia-DNA and carpatho-rusyn groups.

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    See my post #137 at "I2a-Din came to the Balkans and Dinaric Alps with the Thracians, Dacians & Illyrians" or #1189 at "How did I2a-Din get to the Balkans?" where argued that the age of formation and TMRCA of I-CTS10228 and I-S17250 does not correlate with consideration that it survived since the Chalcolithic only in area of Poland- Belarus-Ukraine, the ethnogenesis of the Slavic people, Slavic expansion in Eastern Europe i.e. migration from Eastern Europe toward Balkan between 550-750 CE.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tomenable View Post
    I suppose, that between 5500 ybp and 2200 ybp, carriers of this clade lived as a small group of people in the region of Polesia (also known as the Pripet Marshes), which most likely was a kind of refugium for them. Only around year 200 BC they probably started moving out of Polesia, and started to increase in numbers, mixing with neighbouring R1a groups and forming the Proto-Slavic community (who then started their famous expansion several centuries later).

    Today frequency of I2a1 is still higher in Polesia (ca. 26%) than in neighbouring regions of Belarus (ca. 17%) or Ukraine (ca. 20%).
    The L621 map suggests that the origin was in the Dnepr-Dnestr-Pontos area, from where it spread in all directions. When a part of it came to the Adria as a bareer, this clade accumulated there by means of continued immigration of this tribe. If the map is 'right' STR data should be able to prove a cline of L621 diversity between south-western Ukraine and the west balkan.
    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok
    It doesn't look particularly West Slavis. Either West Slavs come from a different tribe, with very low level of L621 or West Slavs are Slavicized locals.
    West-Slavs are genetically only to a smaller degree real Slavs. Being dominantly of the M458 clade they were slavisized during the expansion in the first millenium AD.

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    What do you think caused this lineage to expand so rapidly after 3000 years of insignificance ? I had a theory but was immediately ridiculed for it in some other thread I started, which is Elite dominance, whoever this guy was that most modern I2a1b2a1 descend from, He had a lot of male offspring, and his descendants had a lot of male offspring themselves, they probably practised polygamy for this rapid expansion to become possible, they were not your average simple peasant, he was definitely a king of some sort, someone important, maybe ruling a majority R1a tribe that spoke proto-Slavic, this lineage would have been the forefather for many Slavic dynasties in their future expansions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by IronSide View Post
    What do you think caused this lineage to expand so rapidly after 3000 years of insignificance ? I had a theory but was immediately ridiculed for it in some other thread I started, which is Elite dominance, whoever this guy was that most modern I2a1b2a1 descend from, He had a lot of male offspring, and his descendants had a lot of male offspring themselves, they probably practised polygamy for this rapid expansion to become possible, they were not your average simple peasant, he was definitely a king of some sort, someone important, maybe ruling a majority R1a tribe that spoke proto-Slavic, this lineage would have been the forefather for many Slavic dynasties in their future expansions.
    This, and keep in mind that Balkans were quite depopulated in Dark Ages, so it was easier for a small group to experience unrestricted and fast growth, when better times presented themselves.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ngc598 View Post
    The L621 map suggests that the origin was in the Dnepr-Dnestr-Pontos area, from where it spread in all directions. When a part of it came to the Adria as a bareer, this clade accumulated there by means of continued immigration of this tribe. If the map is 'right' STR data should be able to prove a cline of L621 diversity between south-western Ukraine and the west balkan.

    West-Slavs are genetically only to a smaller degree real Slavs. Being dominantly of the M458 clade they were slavisized during the expansion in the first millenium AD.
    Do you have a genetic sample of proto-Slav to be so sure of your conclusion?

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    Do you have a genetic sample of proto-Slav to be so sure of your conclusion?
    Well, I mislaid my time-travelling machine, so I can't fetch you the proto-slav sample (if such people even ever existed...), but as an educated guess the R1a-makeup of peoples/nations with westslavic languages may suffice.

    In this table you have
    ...the Poles (Поляки) with 26.2% (= 17.2% L260 and 9.4% M458xL260) of M458 vs. the whole Z280 clade of 26.8%
    ...the Czech (Чехи) with 22.3% (= 11.7+10.6) of M458 vs. 15.0% Z280
    ...the Sorbs (Лужичане) with 56.9% (= 33.3+23.6) of M458 vs. 8.3% Z280.
    I don't have data for Slovaks, but the Family Tree site lists about the same amount of M458 to CTS1211, not a strong evidence with such biased data, but at least a hint on the direction.
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Quote Originally Posted by ngc598 View Post
    The L621 map suggests that the origin was in the Dnepr-Dnestr-Pontos area, from where it spread in all directions. When a part of it came to the Adria as a bareer, this clade accumulated there by means of continued immigration of this tribe. If the map is 'right' STR data should be able to prove a cline of L621 diversity between south-western Ukraine and the west balkan.

    West-Slavs are genetically only to a smaller degree real Slavs. Being dominantly of the M458 clade they were slavisized during the expansion in the first millenium AD.
    Not sure where you came to that conclusion considering R1a m458 is pretty distinctively more common in Slavic populations and not in non Slavic nations. Auch eine lustige Bemerkung von einem Österreicher . Ihr habt so viele slawische Herkunft, dass manchmal frage ich mich wie ihr nicht eine slawische Sprache spricht. R1a erreicht fast 40 Prozent der Bevölkerung in Steiermark und die Hälfte von Wien haben alle tchechische Nachnamen.

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    Slovakia has pretty high rates of I2a and besides Ukrainians probably has the highest rates from all north slavs. Eastern Slovakia especially. My guess is there were two sort of Slavic groups living next to eachother one going from north western Ukraine into Belarus and another south of it going from west/central Ukraine into east Slovakia and Romania . The former having much higher rates of R1a and the the latter being dominated by I2a

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by srdceleva View Post
    Not sure where you came to that conclusion considering R1a m458 is pretty distinctively more common in Slavic populations and not in non Slavic nations.
    I don't deny that. There is just one thing - language is not the same as genetics. Slavic languages were born about 2000 years ago and there is not much dispute among linguists that it originated in the Balkan region, genetically most likely in the Z280>CTS1211>CTS3402(>Y33) subgroup.

    Maybe this image gives you the picture. The 'West-Slavs' (in pink) as an M458 group are genetically distinct from the Balto-Slav group (in green), but Balts are not Slavs, and they are closer to the Slavs than the 'West-Slavs', which means that the latter cannot be Slavs in the strict sense of the word. The age of the slavic language family is about 2000-2500 years, while the separation between the M458 and the whole Z280 branch is about 4700 years take or leave 5-10%. The most convenient explanation is that the 'West-Slavic' M458 branch was slavisized and had not spoken a slavic language initially.

    Quote Originally Posted by srdceleva View Post
    Auch eine lustige Bemerkung von einem Österreicher . Ihr habt so viele slawische Herkunft, dass manchmal frage ich mich wie ihr nicht eine slawische Sprache spricht. R1a erreicht fast 40 Prozent der Bevölkerung in Steiermark und die Hälfte von Wien haben alle tchechische Nachnamen.
    Haha, that's just a matter of time! As Austrians have unlearned to make babies and slavic naturalized citizens even that out, there is no doubt that Austria sooner or later will become a balkan province. Sorry to tell you, but the Slovak citizens in Eastern Austria aren't doing the baby job either, so no South-Slovakia in future!

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by ngc598 View Post
    I don't deny that. There is just one thing - language is not the same as genetics. Slavic languages were born about 2000 years ago and there is not much dispute among linguists that it originated in the Balkan region, genetically most likely in the Z280>CTS1211>CTS3402(>Y33) subgroup.

    Maybe this image gives you the picture. The 'West-Slavs' (in pink) as an M458 group are genetically distinct from the Balto-Slav group (in green), but Balts are not Slavs, and they are closer to the Slavs than the 'West-Slavs', which means that the latter cannot be Slavs in the strict sense of the word. The age of the slavic language family is about 2000-2500 years, while the separation between the M458 and the whole Z280 branch is about 4700 years take or leave 5-10%. The most convenient explanation is that the 'West-Slavic' M458 branch was slavisized and had not spoken a slavic language initially.

    [B]
    Haha, that's just a matter of time! As Austrians have unlearned to make babies and slavic naturalized citizens even that out, there is no doubt that Austria sooner or later will become a balkan province. Sorry to tell you, but the Slovak citizens in Eastern Austria aren't doing the baby job either, so no South-Slovakia in future!
    Your argument makes zero sense. Poland is dominated by M458 and they genetically cluster extremely close to Belarusians, south Russians, and Ukrainians. Slovaks cluster closest to south eastern poles and western ukrainians. Slovaks aren't even completely m458 but share more R1a in common with eastern slavs and Slovenians. Also it's no surprise that Baltic people share common ancestry with slavs as the supposed ancestral group from both linguistic groups was Balto-Slavic and they have had a lot of contact historically from Eastern slavs. If western slavs weren't slavs originally then why does R1a-m458 drop drastically among non Slavic nations?

    From seeing your comment you must be Yugoslavian living in Austria, also steirmark having 40 percent R1a is not from recent Slavic immigrants the nations ancestry is heavily Slavic. Keep dreaming about Slavic languages starting in the Balkans.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by ngc598 View Post
    I don't deny that. There is just one thing - language is not the same as genetics. Slavic languages were born about 2000 years ago and there is not much dispute among linguists that it originated in the Balkan region, genetically most likely in the Z280>CTS1211>CTS3402(>Y33) subgroup.

    Maybe this image gives you the picture. The 'West-Slavs' (in pink) as an M458 group are genetically distinct from the Balto-Slav group (in green), but Balts are not Slavs, and they are closer to the Slavs than the 'West-Slavs', which means that the latter cannot be Slavs in the strict sense of the word. The age of the slavic language family is about 2000-2500 years, while the separation between the M458 and the whole Z280 branch is about 4700 years take or leave 5-10%. The most convenient explanation is that the 'West-Slavic' M458 branch was slavisized and had not spoken a slavic language initially.

    [B]
    Haha, that's just a matter of time! As Austrians have unlearned to make babies and slavic naturalized citizens even that out, there is no doubt that Austria sooner or later will become a balkan province. Sorry to tell you, but the Slovak citizens in Eastern Austria aren't doing the baby job either, so no South-Slovakia in future!
    Your comments are very emotionally charged, and pivot around Balkano-Slavic nationalism. I find you more romantic than realist. I don't think we can have any rational discussion with you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by srdceleva View Post
    From seeing your comment you must be Yugoslavian living in Austria
    Again, I'm amused. My only Slavic relation is that I learned a few Russian sentences years ago to communicate with a co-worker. But I'm flattered that I can pass as a Serbian/Yugoslav nationalist. That's a new thing to me!

    Maybe you take a second look on the graphic I posted above. I don't agree with the claim 'He speaks a Slavic language, therefore he is a Slav. This is Pan-Slavism. Defining the term 'Slavs' is the task here. Are the people 'suspect' to be Slavs the descendents of the tribes who became known to history in the 6th century AD or not? So you get the following possibilities:
    1. Both M458 and the whole Z280 clade are Slavs, Balts included. If you define it this way, I don't have a problem with it, but I guess Balts will see it very differently.
    2. M458 are the real Slavs, who are mostly called Venedi in the antique world. Then I have the problem to explain the obvious fact that the CTS1211 people are quite surely also Slavs. So the slavisation has to go from north of the Carpaths towards the east and south. I don't know if this is supported by any archeological data, genetic maps or linguistic models.
    3. CTS1211 or a subclade of it are the real Slavs. The first mentioning of the Slavs was after 500 AD, when tribes called Sklabenoi brought some trouble on Justinian's empire, which was at the Black Sea coast of the Balkan. Linguists give an approximate time of the proto-slavic language (defined by not being devided in west-, east or south slavic) from the 5th to 9th century AD, which fits in the time frame of their first 'appearance'. There may be a connection between the activities of the Sarmatians from about the 3rd century BC on, at the northern Pontos coast, and the movement of the tribes, which a few centuries later were to become known as Slavs, and I don't see it as a problem for my understanding if they came more from the west ukrainian coast. I just believe that they came from somewhere between the Dnepr mouth and the lower Danube (roughly - don't make a millimeter work out of this on your map!). The west balkan is NOT the place of Slavic origin, that's known for centuries!
    4. There is another possibility though to combine M458 with the south eastern Slavic tribes. If M458 and those CTS1211 subclades merged after the split between Balts and Slavs, this could have been the origin of the Slavic language and the name of the Slavs. I don't have evidence that this happened, but it is not beside the point. Bulgaria has a quite decent number of M458 except for its north-west, this would fit equally well to the historical references, but I have no idea if the time frame of such a possible merging can be met.

    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok
    Your comments are very emotionally charged, and pivot around Balkano-Slavic nationalism.
    Specify!
    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok
    I find you more romantic than realist.
    Was that a compliment? People say I am so boring rationalist...
    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok
    I don't think we can have any rational discussion with you.
    Whatever floats your boat...

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    This, and keep in mind that Balkans were quite depopulated in Dark Ages, so it was easier for a small group to experience unrestricted and fast growth, when better times presented themselves.
    Balkan was not depopulated in the Dark Ages as previously, historically, thought - archeological excavations in the territory of Yugoslavia could not and did not confirm any mass migration, actually, exactly the opposite - that there was no mass depopulation (confirmed continuity) and there was no mass migration and expansion, especially not in the 6-8th century when is dated the Slavic migration. The idea of depopulated Balkan or "partially empty house" was the idea of Yugoslavism or Pan-Slavism from the 19th century, it was a romantic idea that the South Slavs were ''pure'' Slavs who settled in an empty ''homeland''. It's a debunked academic dogma.

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    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Miroslav View Post
    Balkan was not depopulated in the Dark Ages as previously, historically, thought - archeological excavations in the territory of Yugoslavia could not and did not confirm any mass migration, actually, exactly the opposite - that there was no mass depopulation (confirmed continuity) and there was no mass migration and expansion, especially not in the 6-8th century when is dated the Slavic migration. The idea of depopulated Balkan or "partially empty house" was the idea of Yugoslavism or Pan-Slavism from the 19th century, it was a romantic idea that the South Slavs were ''pure'' Slavs who settled in an empty ''homeland''. It's a debunked academic dogma.
    When eye witness accounts from ancient Greeks at the time say "grass would not grow because so many slavs had invaded" I find it hard to believe there wasn't a migration of slavs into the area. I don't believe the Balkans was completely depopulated but I do think south slavs are at least partially descended from from Slavic migrations into the area. Weather Yugoslav nationalists agreed with that is irrelevant. If Hitler said the sky was blue he'd still be right regardless whether he was a lunatic or not.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by srdceleva View Post
    When eye witness accounts from ancient Greeks at the time say "grass would not grow because so many slavs had invaded" I find it hard to believe there wasn't a migration of slavs into the area. I don't believe the Balkans was completely depopulated but I do think south slavs are at least partially descended from from Slavic migrations into the area. Weather Yugoslav nationalists agreed with that is irrelevant. If Hitler said the sky was blue he'd still be right regardless whether he was a lunatic or not.
    Right, not mentioning that all Roman and Greek historians missed all the Slavic tribes lurking in Balkans, speaking "weird" language, till 5th century BC.

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by srdceleva View Post
    When eye witness accounts from ancient Greeks at the time say "grass would not grow because so many slavs had invaded" I find it hard to believe there wasn't a migration of slavs into the area. I don't believe the Balkans was completely depopulated but I do think south slavs are at least partially descended from from Slavic migrations into the area. Weather Yugoslav nationalists agreed with that is irrelevant. If Hitler said the sky was blue he'd still be right regardless whether he was a lunatic or not.
    I did not write that there was no Slavic migration into the area. South Slavs are partially descendants of the arriving Slavs - but the frequency of R1a in their nations (average 15-25%) is more than enough for imposition of foreign language and identity to the natives - and in the review I provided (which is an extensive consideration by scholars) it is one of the most probable scenarios. Historial sources can not be literally and uncritically accepted (we can easly find similar quotes which were not true) - yet were by the historians, while it was more than well known, especially from the time of Yugoslavian historiography and archeology, that the empirical evidence and consideration provided by the archeologists did not support the historians' ideological fabrication about a huge mass migration and vastly depopulated Balkans. What I am pointing to is the need for neutrality and scientific approach - there's still lack of evidence and we should not make and jump to any final conclusion or take only one POV based on that.

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