I did make my proposals in many posts. 1. PIE is from the Iranian Plateau, reached the Steppes via the Caucasus (influx from Iranian Plateau to Caucasus and Steppes supported by archeology) or via East of the Caspian. In this scenario Indo European might have evolved on the Iranian Plateau and the Steppes could be a secondary homeland to the major European branches of Indo European, while Hittite didn't even cross the Steppes but directly moved into Anatolia.
Or Indo European evolved after some Iran_Calcolthic dudes reached the Steppes and merged with the EHG of Samara.
2. Indo European could have a South_Central Asian origin in itself and reached the Steppes via East of the Caspian. If that is not the case at least the EHG individuals probably came from South_Central Asia and reached Samara via the East Caspian route.
Note South_Central Asia in this case for me is the region between Afghanistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan and Tajikistan.
Yes, both first and second scenarios you give here have certain probability. People can be careful to avoid premature conclusions.
Two competing hypotheses Steppe (Kurgan) and Anatolian have their arguments. Grey and Atkinson (2003) using statistical methods developed by biologists found that Proto Indo European spoken 7,800 to almost 10,000 years ago. Their findings gave support to Anatolian hypothesis! Nine years later a larger team of scientists including the two mentioned using mathematical model for geographical spreading of viruses again gave support for Anatolian versus Kurgan hypothesis. In those days seems that Anatolian hypothesis triumphed.
After that two new scientific papers things changed (and someone can see it is not good make speedy conclusions).
Phylogenetic analysis by Chang et al (2015) using generally accepted language ancestries found that ancestor language originated about 6,500 years ago. Chang et al examined over 200 sets of words using present day and historical Indo-European languages, and through statistical modeling, they concluded that languages which first used these words began to diverge about 6,500 years ago. This backs Steppe hypothesis.
DNA study Haak et al (2015) confirmed migration from steppes, people who lived in Yamnaya 5,000 years ago are closely matched with Corded Ware people in (today’s) Germany 4,500 years ago. Massive migrations happened from steppe. According researchers eastern migrants could replace domicile population (on areas present days Germany). Yes, we knew this earlier, but always it is good when exact scientific results give confirmation.
After these papers someone can reckon triumph Steppe hypothesis? But mater is complex and knowledge lacks.
For example we don’t know about languages of Starcevo culture, Linear Pottery Culture etc. in Europe.
Wikipedia:
“There are different opinions about the ethno-linguistic origin of the people of Starčevo culture. According to one opinion, Neolithic cultures of the Balkans were of non-Indo-European origin and Indo-European peoples (originating from Eastern Europe) did not settle in this area before the Eneolithic period. According to other opinions, Neolithic cultures of the Balkans were also Indo-European and originated from Anatolia, which some researchers identified with a place of origin of Indo-European peoples.”
Renfrew, author of Anatolian hypothesis, in the light of new findings, considers steppes as secondary migration IE speakers to Europe and about 3,000 years later in regards first migration IE speakers.
There are more hypotheses, among them, Armenian, Paleolithic continuity, Vasconic etc.
Armeinan hypothesis also makes sense. For Armenian hypothesis Hak et al (2015) argue:
“The Armenian plauteu hypothesis gains in plausibility by the fact that we have discovered evidence of admixture in the ancestry of Yamnaya steppe pastoralists, including gene flow from a population of Near Eastern ancestry for which Armenians today appear to be a reasonable surrogate (SI4, SI7, SI9). However, the question of what languages were spoken by the "Eastern European hunter-gatherers" and the southern, Armenian-like, ancestral population remains open.”
And Paleolithic continuity by Alinei has its value. This hypothesis suggests that Indo-European speakers were native in Europe since Paleolithic. By the end of ice age IE language family differentiated in languages which many of them survived and developed till today. We can argue that archeological and genetic evidence missing but it is very good food for thoughts and contributes to our knowledge.
There are more different hypothesis. One of them is Vasconic hypothesis proposed by Vennemann. Vasonic people lived in Western Europe and gave names to rives and places. Basque is Vasconic language which survived.
According Klyosov and Tomezolli (2013) original language of R1b carriers wasn’t Indo-European. According authors R1b carriers arrived in Europe about 4,800 – 4,300 years ago and they didn’t speak IE languages, these languages spoke R1a carriers. Authors claim:
“During the period of 3000 - 2300 ybp many R1a tribes migrated with their IE languages from the Russian Plain to central, western and southern Europe bringing to Europe the peoples later called Germans, Italics, Greeks, Illyrians, Balto-Slavs, and Celts (the Hallstatt and La Tene cultures flourished between 2600 and 2400 ybp). We posit that some Arbin (R1b) peoples adopted the IE languages from the R1a bearers and, in exchange, introduced NIE loan words and grammatical structures.”
As authors claim Basque is language of R1b carries which survived and authors think Vasconic hypothesis has ground. Also they think R1a carriers migrated from Anatolia to Balkans between 9000-8000 years ago and they brought IE languages. In that way and Anatolian hypothesis according authors has ground. Authors disprove Steppe (Kurgan) and Paleolithic continuity hipotheses.
However till today nobody found ancient R1a in the Balkans and idea that R1a carriers brought IE language to the Balkans has not been proved. Vasconic hypothesis is not accepted in scientific community. Maybe author’s claim about original languages of R1b carriers as NIE (non Indo-European) is not priori mistaken but someone can claim same for R1a carriers. And they could spoke non IE once.
I will repeat languages don't go always with haplogroups, expansion of any language may not be caused by mass migration of newcomers, it can be only language expansion where local people of different origin adopt 'lingua franca' and their native languages disappear. Also, people (elite) who conquer any territory not always impose their language on local population. Massive migrations or conquering any territory are not necessary preconditions for language expansion, language can be spread in different ways.
At today’s level of knowledge (which can be changed with new discoveries and evidence) we can make link between Anatolian, Steppe and Armenian hypothesis, they does not have to be mutually exclusive. Better picture can be synthesis these three hypotheses.
