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Thread: Brexit: not inevitable

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    Quote Originally Posted by Minty View Post
    I think the Swiss are intelligent, they have been resisting joining since the beginning. The UK never really wanted to join, that is why they have only one foot in the European Union and one foot out, the other members kept on persuading them to join. Many British like English speakers, many of the EU countries don't speak English. However it is not just about that it is much more than that. This is now a disaster for them and the EU. Scottish people will see this as a great opportunity to try to gain independence, and if they can get it, the other ethnic minorities such as Catalonia, Bretons, maybe Corsica as well...will take this opportunities to try...
    Let's not discriminate. Everyone who want's a democratic vote for independence no matter what country shall have their say!

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    I am disappointed by some of the reactions here (nordicwarrior, Sile, Aaron1981, Maleth, Yetos), but it is not surprising from people who aren't British, haven't lived in Britain and do not have any personal tie to the country. I should have mentioned from the start where I stand personally and emotionally. I am Belgian, but I have studied and lived in England and still spend about a third of my time in the country. I have family and friends in England. I have followed the Brexit debate attentively for the last few months, most of the time from England itself, and I am as flabbergasted as most Londoners and most of the political class by the results of the referendum, especially when all opinion polls had the Remain camp winner.

    I started this website 12 years ago as a travel guide to England and Belgium. I personally feel more British than Belgian and have considered in the past adopting British citizenship. I didn't because as an EU citizen that wouldn't change much. I was happy dividing my time between England and Belgium. Now, if the UK or just England and Wales are to leave the EU, it would change everything and that would make me reconsider my whole life and my future.

    More importantly, I don't think that the EU can survive in the long-term without Britain. Even if it did, it wouldn't be the European Union as I have always known it. I think that the closest analogy for an American to understand how it would feel would be if the states of New England and New York were to declare their independence from the rest of the USA. Surely the USA would survive, but it wouldn't be the same country anymore, for ever.

    Just like New York in the US, London is Europe's largest city, its financial capital, its most cosmopolitan city, and in my eyes also its cultural capital (I know many southern Europeans might disagree, but that's how most northern Europeans see it). The EU without London is no better than the US without New York.

    Additionally English is one of the three working languages of the EU (along with French and German), and the only real lingua franca between Europeans, including in the EU neighbourhood in Brussels. It would feel very odd for EU workers from now on to discuss in English if England isn't part of the EU anymore. It would be a daily reminder of that tragic Brexit.

    It's not just politicians who have warned that Brexit would be terrible for the British economy. All serious newspapers and news sites, from the Economist to the Financial Times, and from the BBC to the Guardian, all agreed on this. It would be a major blow to British scientific research, which produces 6.9% of global scientific output and represent a third of all of the EU's scientific researchers.

    If the UK leaves the EU without joining Schengen, it would be catastrophic for the 3 million Europeans living in the UK and 1.3 million Britons living in the EU. Most might be force to leave the place where they have made their life, leaving behind their house, friends, country of adoption... I can't imagine such a scenario.

    Leaving the EU will affect th daily life of British citizens in many more ways, as explained here by Mashable and the Guardian, for example. The worst would be the property crash that will ensue if the 3m EU citizens in the UK are forced to leave. This will effectively wipe out a lot of money directly out of British people's pockets (home valuation). The financial sector in London, the heart of the British economy is expected to drop by about 10%. The simultaneous crash of properties and financial services will lead to a recession that could be worse than that of 2008, and with no EU to help recover this time.

    Britain would also lose numerous benefits from the EU, including consumer protection, temporary workers' rights, maternity leaves, environmental protection (ban on dangerous chemicals and pesticides), agricultural subsidies (£27bn annually), and so on.
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    Maciamo, I'm baffled by the fact that you're repeating the controlled media's scaring tactics! The EU didn't do much for Britain anyway. It's also really not surprising that the LEAST British part of England (London(istan)) voted more in favour of Remain than Leave.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power77 View Post
    Maciamo, I'm baffled by the fact that you're repeating the controlled media's scaring tactics! The EU didn't do much for Britain anyway. It's also really not surprising that the LEAST British part of England (London(istan)) voted more in favour of Remain than Leave.
    Baffling it is.
    I'm surprised the nation that gave us our modern language called "English" spoken in world wide populations anywhere from 300 million - 700+/- million,and used for commerce and science, survived for thousands of years without foreign rulers, cannot run without the help of foreign people? Who feel they can write new laws/rules, and create new taxes, for the original successful autochthonous population.
    Native speakers 360–400 million (2006)[2]
    L2 speakers: 400 million;
    as a foreign language: 600–700 million[2]

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    I wonder if it is technically possible for London to separate from GB and remain in EU, the way Scotland wants to do?
    Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    I am disappointed by some of the reactions here (nordicwarrior, Sile, Aaron1981, Maleth, Yetos), but it is not surprising from people who aren't British, haven't lived in Britain and do not have any personal tie to the country..
    Maciamo just for your knowledge, my G grand father is English from Surrey (that does not mean much because I do not remember him) Malta was a colony under British rule to a time I can recall in my childhood. My Grand mother lived the last 20 years of her life in London, both my brothers are married to English women (one of them returned to retire in Malta) and all their siblings are married to English people too. Myself I worked in London for 5 years, Besides I have visited England some 14 times. My work locally gets me regularly in contact with British people (not only English) so Im not that unfamiliar.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Silesian View Post
    Baffling it is.
    I'm surprised the nation that gave us our modern language called "English" spoken in world wide populations anywhere from 300 million - 700+/- million,and used for commerce and science, survived for thousands of years without foreign rulers, cannot run without the help of foreign people? Who feel they can write new laws/rules, and create new taxes, for the original successful autochthonous population.
    Britian was ruled by many foreigners since you mentioned thousands of years. Romans, Vikings, Normans...beside the Anglo invasions. You need to check up the history :)

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    I wonder if it is technically possible for London to separate from GB and remain in EU, the way Scotland wants to do?
    I heard that Scotland can Veto the UK leaving the EU. But I think all this will not happen. The referendum cannot be ignored, it was well debated and who voted leave did so from their heart. If others wanted to remain and did not vote, then they should have made an effort if it was so important to them. If it was a protest vote or they regret it now its too late. Everyone knew what they were doing. Best thing that can happen is for Ireland to become one country (as it used to be) Scotland gain independence and England and Wales carry on with the task they have voted for. Good or Bad there are many lessons that are going to be learned. Such is life.

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    Quote Originally Posted by LeBrok View Post
    I wonder if it is technically possible for London to separate from GB and remain in EU, the way Scotland wants to do?
    Why not? London(istan) is hardly English anymore!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maleth View Post
    I heard that Scotland can Veto the UK leaving the EU. But I think all this will not happen. The referendum cannot be ignored, it was well debated and who voted leave did so from their heart. If others wanted to remain and did not vote, then they should have made an effort if it was so important to them. If it was a protest vote or they regret it now its too late. Everyone knew what they were doing. Best thing that can happen is for Ireland to become one country (as it used to be) Scotland gain independence and England and Wales carry on with the task they have voted for. Good or Bad there are many lessons that are going to be learned. Such is life.
    Ireland is not one country and there was a reason for it. It won't be that simple.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    and he is right, again

    Exactly ! Good old Winston always knew how to word things.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power77 View Post
    Why not? London(istan) is hardly English anymore!
    That has nothing to do with the EU. Those immigrants are a result of the Empire pre EU accession. Most of the Recent immigration was mostly from EU Countries with the largest being from Poland and India has got much a bigger share then Pakistan

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    Complex indeed but was considered as one Island until very recently.


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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    Ireland is not one country and there was a reason for it. It won't be that simple.
    I agree. Unless the northern Irish have changed a very great deal very recently they're not going to want to disappear into a Catholic Ireland even if it's not so very Catholic anymore.

    As for Scotland, its exit from Britain is predicated, I think, on there being a healthy European Union to join. That's true for many of the separatist movements.

    If, after a hiccup or two, Britain does fine, I think you're going to see either more exits from the EU or a renegotiation of different "deals". It may suit Scotland better to stay where it can have more influence on its future and just negotiate for even more autonomy.

    One of the more interesting aspects of this for me is, as I said above, that there is indeed a limit to how much the media can change people's minds. From people I know who work in the London markets and live there year round, the BBC was virtually 24 hour a day anti-Brexit content. It didn't make any difference.

    @Maleth,

    That was certainly vintage Thatcher: No, no, no! She'd be very happy if she were still around and compos mentis. The Tory party has indeed changed. The same thing is happening in the U.S. There are going to be some serious re-alignments and perhaps new parties forming. In my opinion, I think there's a real question whether actual "conservatives" in the Republican party are going to support Trump, although I don't know if many of them are going to formally exit from the party like George Will.

    @Silesian,

    Were you being serious or not? I don't know you well enough to be able to tell. :)


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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    I agree. Unless the northern Irish have changed a very great deal very recently they're not going to want to disappear into a Catholic Ireland even if it's not so very Catholic anymore.
    Religion is just a pretext for many political situations mainly driven by economic preference. No one goes round fighting and killing to have the right to pray in front of a picture of the virgin Mary anymore. Once an Irish always an Irish ;).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maleth View Post
    That has nothing to do with the EU. Those immigrants are a result of the Empire pre EU accession. Most of the Recent immigration was mostly from EU Countries with the largest being from Poland and India has got much a bigger share then Pakistan
    Perhaps, but that still doesn't change the fact that London (1) is the most Muslim city in Britain, (2) has a Muslim mayor, and (3) is the least ethnically English part of England. In other words, London fits all the "requirements" for being a pro-Remain area IN ENGLAND (because Scotland and Northern Ireland, as this referendum has shown, are DIFFERENT cases with DIFFERENT interests from the rest of Britain).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maleth View Post
    Maciamo just for your knowledge, my G grand father is English from Surrey (that does not mean much because I do not remember him) Malta was a colony under British rule to a time I can recall in my childhood. My Grand mother lived the last 20 years of her life in London, both my brothers are married to English women (one of them returned to retire in Malta) and all their siblings are married to English people too. Myself I worked in London for 5 years, Besides I have visited England some 14 times. My work locally gets me regularly in contact with British people (not only English) so Im not that unfamiliar.
    Good to know. But still it would seem that it does not affect you directly whether the UK leaves the EU or not. What would you change for you personally?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power77 View Post
    Perhaps, but that still doesn't change the fact that London (1) is the most Muslim city in Britain, (2) has a Muslim mayor, and (3) is the least ethnically English part of England. In other words, London fits all the "requirements" for being a pro-Remain area IN ENGLAND (because Scotland and Northern Ireland, as this referendum has shown, are DIFFERENT cases with DIFFERENT interests from the rest of Britain).
    That is factually not true. Slough in Berkshire and Leicester are the least ethnically English city in England, with only 34% of White British in Slough and 45% in Leicester.

    The highest percentages of Muslims are in Blackburn (28%), Bradford (25%, peaking at 51% in Bradford West), Luton (24.5%), Slough (24%), Birmingham (22%) and Leicester (19%), all well ahead of London (12%).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    I am disappointed by some of the reactions here (nordicwarrior, Sile, Aaron1981, Maleth, Yetos), but it is not surprising from people who aren't British, haven't lived in Britain and do not have any personal tie to the country. I should have mentioned from the start where I stand personally and emotionally. I am Belgian, but I have studied and lived in England and still spend about a third of my time in the country. I have family and friends in England. I have followed the Brexit debate attentively for the last few months, most of the time from England itself, and I am as flabbergasted as most Londoners and most of the political class by the results of the referendum, especially when all opinion polls had the Remain camp winner.

    I started this website 12 years ago as a travel guide to England and Belgium. I personally feel more British than Belgian and have considered in the past adopting British citizenship. I didn't because as an EU citizen that wouldn't change much. I was happy dividing my time between England and Belgium. Now, if the UK or just England and Wales are to leave the EU, it would change everything and that would make me reconsider my whole life and my future.

    More importantly, I don't think that the EU can survive in the long-term without Britain. Even if it did, it wouldn't be the European Union as I have always known it. I think that the closest analogy for an American to understand how it would feel would be if the states of New England and New York were to declare their independence from the rest of the USA. Surely the USA would survive, but it wouldn't be the same country anymore, for ever.

    Just like New York in the US, London is Europe's largest city, its financial capital, its most cosmopolitan city, and in my eyes also its cultural capital (I know many southern Europeans might disagree, but that's how most northern Europeans see it). The EU without London is no better than the US without New York.

    Additionally English is one of the three working languages of the EU (along with French and German), and the only real lingua franca between Europeans, including in the EU neighbourhood in Brussels. It would feel very odd for EU workers from now on to discuss in English if England isn't part of the EU anymore. It would be a daily reminder of that tragic Brexit.

    It's not just politicians who have warned that Brexit would be terrible for the British economy. All serious newspapers and news sites, from the Economist to the Financial Times, and from the BBC to the Guardian, all agreed on this. It would be a major blow to British scientific research, which produces 6.9% of global scientific output and represent a third of all of the EU's scientific researchers.

    If the UK leaves the EU without joining Schengen, it would be catastrophic for the 3 million Europeans living in the UK and 1.3 million Britons living in the EU. Most might be force to leave the place where they have made their life, leaving behind their house, friends, country of adoption... I can't imagine such a scenario.

    Leaving the EU will affect th daily life of British citizens in many more ways, as explained here by Mashable and the Guardian, for example. The worst would be the property crash that will ensue if the 3m EU citizens in the UK are forced to leave. This will effectively wipe out a lot of money directly out of British people's pockets (home valuation). The financial sector in London, the heart of the British economy is expected to drop by about 10%. The simultaneous crash of properties and financial services will lead to a recession that could be worse than that of 2008, and with no EU to help recover this time.

    Britain would also lose numerous benefits from the EU, including consumer protection, temporary workers' rights, maternity leaves, environmental protection (ban on dangerous chemicals and pesticides), agricultural subsidies (£27bn annually), and so on.

    Really!
    maybe you should read the history of what the economists said what the EU should do and only do at the very beginning, and not interfere with each countries migration, telling which country what they should grow and if it is their turn to grow it etc etc
    It was initially only suppose to be a Financial system to ease monetary funds and not one to control another people's populace on how they should live.


    The European Union (EU) was created by the Maastricht Treaty on November 1st 1993. It is a political and economic union between European countries which makes its own policies concerning the members’ economies, societies, laws and to some extent security. To some, the EU is an overblown bureaucracy which drains money and compromises the power of sovereign states.
    có che un pòpoło no 'l defende pi ła só łéngua el xe prónto par èser s'ciavo

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maleth View Post
    Religion is just a pretext for many political situations mainly driven by economic preference. No one goes round fighting and killing to have the right to pray in front of a picture of the virgin Mary anymore. Once an Irish always an Irish ;).
    The religious difference translates into an economic and social difference; that's the point. The way I hear it from the Irish community here is that the hiring, union preferment, salaries, even access to social services, everything was skewed so that the Protestants had an advantage, and lots of gerrymandering of electoral districts to keep it that way. The way they tell it the Protestants didn't want to lose that advantage by joining "Catholic" Ireland.

    Has all that changed? Was it not true in the past?

    Maybe it's the people I know. :) There were more than a few Irish-Americans who in the past gave money to the IRA even though if asked they would have said they never supported terrorist organizations.

  22. #47
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    I agree with Maciamo's narrative that the British voted for Brexit based on an incorrect narrative about immigration, and that it will affect the country economically negatively, but I think that the economic negatives are perhaps only in the short term. I think that this is salvageable, and could even be an economic plus if they give it enough time and implement the right policies.

    Much of the short-term economic damage is due to speculation and uncertainty over agreements between the EU and UK. How much of a relative advantage will the EU attempt to gain over the UK? How much spite will there be? At first, it's almost inevitable that there will be competition to the UK's detriment, but both entities tend toward international cooperation and liberalization, so it's likely that they'll settle into mutually beneficial agreements that may not be all that different from the situation during union. The banks are a particular worry, but many countries (USA, Australia, whatever) have robust financial sectors without being in any particular union. Any lingering detriments to the UK over Brexit could be offset by taking advantage of being outside the EU's expensive regulatory apparatus. Switzerland and Norway are the oft-repeated success stories that do this.

    I'm not sure I trust the UK as much as I trust Switzerland and Norway to implement smart, low-regulation policies, though. What happens if the UK leaves and then Corbyn comes to power? Worst of all worlds.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Maciamo View Post
    That is factually not true. Slough in Berkshire and Leicester are the least ethnically English city in England, with only 34% of White British in Slough and 45% in Leicester.

    The highest percentages of Muslims are in Blackburn (28%), Bradford (25%, peaking at 51% in Bradford West), Luton (24.5%), Slough (24%), Birmingham (22%) and Leicester (19%), all well ahead of London (12%).
    Oh come on Maciamo! Do you really think I'll believe those unsourced percentages? I mean why would London have a Muslim mayor if not a very significant part of its population is Muslim? And most (though not all) of the areas you mentioned voted mostly in favour of Remain anyway, so my point still stands.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Power77 View Post
    Oh come on Maciamo! Do you really think I'll believe those unsourced percentages? I mean why would London have a Muslim mayor if not a very significant part of its population is Muslim? And most (though not all) of the areas you mentioned voted mostly in favour of Remain anyway, so my point still stands.
    For the same reason Calgary has a muslim mayor.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bicicleur View Post
    and he is right, again

    For all those deceived by Democracy you have to cope with it, Anyway.
    Last edited by Voyager; 27-06-16 at 07:57.

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