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I have many samples and I can say that their admixture levels are quite varied, but it is hard to get a handle on any visible pattern. For example to look at a level of admixture and tell what area of CW they belong to. It is quite a daunting task. Perhaps they were the same group, same people coming from rather same location, but they were not mixed well together yet. Was this uneven mixing from where they came from, or a result of still uneven mixing with local farmers? Bell Beaker and Unetice samples are here too.
I've lined them up from highest Baloch to smallest.
M224345 I0103 M224345 I0103, R1a M417 M669778 RISE1 R1b-M343>L754 F999956 Rise94, R1a M417 Z378359 PL_N17, R1a-Z280 M453254 Rise154 F999948 Rise150, Poland, slask 1750 BC M913021 Rise00 Germany Espersted 4.5 kya Germnay Espersted 4.5kya Poland 4.6kya BA Sweden, Vibi 4.55kya Poland, Gustorzyn 3.9kya Unetice EBA K1a4a1 - 3.9kya Poland, slask 3.75 kya 3.5kya Estonia CW 4 kya Run time 12.04 Run time 9.48 Run time 2.46 Run Time 5.95 Run time 10.7 Run Time 4.06 Run time 8.44 Run Time 8.05 S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 20.73 Baloch 20.65 Baloch 20.3 Baloch 16.53 Baloch 15.97 Baloch 14.46 Baloch 14.65 Baloch 14.27 Caucasian 5.6 Caucasian 5.79 Caucasian - Caucasian 4.23 Caucasian 5.67 Caucasian 4.05 Caucasian 2.73 Caucasian - NE-Euro 56.52 NE-Euro 57.39 NE-Euro 61.25 NE-Euro 54.16 NE-Euro 58.43 NE-Euro 53.71 NE-Euro 53.54 NE-Euro 59.09 SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian 0.8 NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan 0.48 Papuan - American 1.92 American 0.67 American 3.73 American - American 0.72 American 0.96 American 0.22 American - Beringian 0.26 Beringian - Beringian 5.87 Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian 0.49 Beringian - Mediterranean 14.53 Mediterranean 15.38 Mediterranean 8.85 Mediterranean 24.72 Mediterranean 18.91 Mediterranean 26.58 Mediterranean 27.12 Mediterranean 25.26 SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - San - San - San - San - San - San - San - San - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African 0.2 E-African 0.34 E-African - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - W-African 0.44 W-African 0.09 W-African - W-African 0.37 W-African 0.3 W-African - W-African 0.42 W-African 0.5
T644357 RISE563 R1b-U152 T253390 I0806 Rib-DF27 M232268 BA M425717 I0116 M107790 I0118 F999941 Rise98 M324645 I0112 M130094 RISE61 R1a-M417>Z284>CTS8401 Germany, Osterhofen-Altenmarkt Bell Beaker Germany, Quedlinburg 2431-2150BC IrelandBA Rathlin1 Unetice Germany LN Sweden, L Beddinge 56 3.8kya BellBeaker Denmark 4.5kya Run time 6.24 Run time 4.05 Run time 16.74 Run time 6.22 Run time 11.67 Run time 13.93 Run time 11.21 Run time 4.55 S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian 0.97 S-Indian - S-Indian 1.28 S-Indian 0.16 S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 13.69 Baloch 13.34 Baloch 12.89 Baloch 12.21 Baloch 11.84 Baloch 11.56 Baloch 10.96 Baloch 9.67 Caucasian 0.58 Caucasian 9.25 Caucasian 2.14 Caucasian 2.27 Caucasian 6.75 Caucasian - Caucasian 1.59 Caucasian 4.68 NE-Euro 60.74 NE-Euro 49.82 NE-Euro 52.72 NE-Euro 58.33 NE-Euro 49.39 NE-Euro 59.95 NE-Euro 54.14 NE-Euro 54.85 SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian 0.17 SE-Asian 0.06 SE-Asian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian 0.96 Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian 0.27 NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan 0.31 Papuan 0.23 Papuan - American - American - American 1.14 American 0.88 American - American - American 0.3 American - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian 0.11 Beringian 0.1 Beringian - Mediterranean 23.18 Mediterranean 27.41 Mediterranean 26.58 Mediterranean 26.25 Mediterranean 30.33 Mediterranean 26.73 Mediterranean 32.4 Mediterranean 28.7 SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - San - San - San - San - San - San - San - San - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy 0.13 Pygmy 0.07 Pygmy - Pygmy 0.11 Pygmy - Pygmy - W-African 1.8 W-African 0.17 W-African 2.45 W-African - W-African 0.37 W-African 0.87 W-African 0.19 W-African 1.82
M370010 I0047 F999945 Rise97 M671253 Rise71 F999954 Rise569 M239638 RISE586 M191719 RISE431 R1a-M417 Unetice Sweden, Fredriksberg, Sweden 3.6kya Nordic LN, Rise 71 Czech, Prague, Brandisek 4kya? Czech Republic EBA Proto Unetic, Poland 4.15ya Run Time 4.27 Run time 5.11 Run time 4.64 Run time 6.65 3.39 Run time 3.01 S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 9.4 Baloch 9.33 Baloch 9.29 Baloch 7.37 Baloch 7.13 Baloch 6.9 Caucasian 6.83 Caucasian - Caucasian 10.55 Caucasian 8.33 Caucasian 1.52 Caucasian - NE-Euro 57.57 NE-Euro 56.96 NE-Euro 51.89 NE-Euro 57.8 NE-Euro 56.14 NE-Euro 61.32 SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - American - American - American - American - American - American 1.92 Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Mediterranean 25.97 Mediterranean 32.93 Mediterranean 27.34 Mediterranean 26.28 Mediterranean 34.73 Mediterranean 28.8 SW-Asian - SW-Asian 0.59 SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - San - San - San 0.22 San - San - San - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - W-African 0.23 W-African 0.18 W-African 0.7 W-African 0.23 W-African 0.49 W-African 1.05
Be wary of people who tend to glorify the past, underestimate the present, and demonize the future.
Here as a little chart:
CW chart.JPG
All the admixtures keep rather steady level, within 10 percent.
Dropping Baloch level correlates inversely with rising Med. What does that mean?
Probably Baloch and Med admixtures compete for exactly same genes/markers? Not much more to it.
Here are 4 Bronze Age Hungarians, from Baden Culture. They are quite distinct from Corded Ware guys. There is more EEF farmer in them. Much higher level of Med and Caucasian, low Baloch and lower Euro. Maybe even a bit different h-g mix too, containing much less steppe/Baloch, more WHG like.
M631469 RISE349 F999933 BR2, J-M67 M681225 BR1 M974598 RISE374 and 373 Hungary MBA [2034-1748 BC] T2b3 - Hungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő, 3.3kya EBA Hungary Maros Hungary [1866-1619 BC] T2 G2a-P287>P15>PF3178 Run time 3.16 Run time 15.13 Run time 10.55 Run time 5.26 S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 5.64 Baloch 3.15 Baloch - Baloch - Caucasian 13.81 Caucasian 14.73 Caucasian 5.45 Caucasian 18.58 NE-Euro 38.22 NE-Euro 46.18 NE-Euro 56.15 NE-Euro 39.65 SE-Asian - SE-Asian 0.2 SE-Asian 0.49 SE-Asian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan - Papuan 0.18 Papuan - Papuan - American - American - American - American - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Beringian - Mediterranean 34.63 Mediterranean 31.73 Mediterranean 34.48 Mediterranean 40.09 SW-Asian 3.94 SW-Asian 3.33 SW-Asian 3.1 SW-Asian 0.98 San - San - San - San 0.17 E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy 0.15 W-African 3.75 W-African 0.48 W-African 0.3 W-African 0.39
They seem to be the same, differing in about 10% Caucasian.
The first 3 guys have the highest Baloch and look a bit like "outliers". Actually, two first guys, as the third one is of very low quality genome and I'm positive it is misplaced. The first two are from same time period and from Germany. I think they contain more Yamnaya than others.
I managed to create models for them. Pretty good, except baloch is 2 % lower for a perfect model. Even American admixture matches the right level, and American admixture points to strong Steppe input.
This is 3 way composition. First is Yamnaya, second is EEF farmer, 3rd is WHG, above them are the proportions used. 55/15/30 percent respectively.
4th row is the modeled CW from Germany in bold, and 5th is the CW "German" for comparison.
0.55 0.15 0.3 M828815 Rise552 F999928 NE7, I-L1228 M325047 KO1, I-L68 Model for CW Germany M224345 I0103 Ulan iV, Yamnaya 4.5 kya Hungary, Apc-Berekalja I 6.4kya Hungarian, Tiszaszőlős-Domaháza 7.7 kya Composition Germany Espersted 4.5 kya Run time 9.08 Run time 6.72 Run time 9.43 Run time Run time 12.04 S-Indian 0 S-Indian 0 S-Indian 0 S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 33.24 Baloch 0 Baloch 0 Baloch 18.28 Baloch 20.73 Caucasian 6.58 Caucasian 19.04 Caucasian 0 Caucasian 6.48 Caucasian 5.6 NE-Euro 56.02 NE-Euro 16.69 NE-Euro 80.37 NE-Euro 57.43 NE-Euro 56.52 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian - SE-Asian - Siberian 0 Siberian 0 Siberian 0 Siberian - Siberian - NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan 0 Papuan 0 Papuan 0.53 Papuan 0.16 Papuan - American 2.46 American 0 American 0 American 1.35 American 1.92 Beringian 0.75 Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian 0.41 Beringian 0.26 Mediterranean 0 Mediterranean 56.18 Mediterranean 18.59 Mediterranean 14.00 Mediterranean 14.53 SW-Asian 0 SW-Asian 7.96 SW-Asian 0 SW-Asian 1.19 SW-Asian - San 0 San 0 San 0 San - San - E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African - E-African - Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0 Pygmy - Pygmy - W-African 0.95 W-African 0.11 W-African 0.5 W-African 0.69 W-African 0.44
To be perfect, we need to find WHG who has a bit of Baloch (Ukrainian WHG?). And EEF farmer who has much less SW Asian (from Poland?). There is no SW Asian in CW samples, but a lot in Baden samples.
I got better numbers when WHG KO1 is substituted with UHG (Unknown Hunter Gatherer or perhaps Ukrainian Hunter Gatherer), which I created myself ;). It is similar to Samara outlier guy, only 3 components, just in different proportions. Again, first 3 guys are the source elements, 4th is Model made from sum of 3 guys, proportions above. 5th is the real ancient CW guy from Germany, our goal.
I wonder how this newly discovered h-g from Ukraine will pan in gedmatch runs?
Perfect with unknown WHG 0.55 0.10 0.35 M828815 Rise552 F999928 NE7, I-L1228 UHG Model for CW Germany M224345 I0103 Ulan iV, Yamnaya 4.5 kya Hungary, Apc-Berekalja I 6.4kya Composition Germany Espersted 4.5 kya Run time 9.08 Run time 6.72 Run time Run time Run time 12.04 S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 33.24 Baloch - Baloch 6.00 Baloch 20.38 Baloch 20.73 Caucasian 6.58 Caucasian 19.04 Caucasian - Caucasian 5.52 Caucasian 5.60 NE-Euro 56.02 NE-Euro 16.69 NE-Euro 68.50 NE-Euro 56.46 NE-Euro 56.52 SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - American 2.46 American - American - American 1.35 American 1.92 Beringian 0.75 Beringian - Beringian - Beringian 0.41 Beringian 0.26 Mediterranean - Mediterranean 56.18 Mediterranean 25.00 Mediterranean 14.37 Mediterranean 14.53 SW-Asian - SW-Asian 7.96 SW-Asian - SW-Asian 0.80 SW-Asian - San - San - San - San - San - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - W-African 0.95 W-African 0.11 W-African 0.50 W-African 0.71 W-African 0.44
Here I modified a farmer. Hypothetical EEF farmer who lived in Poland/West Ukraine, who was more heavily mixed with WHG. He is in second column. I used Samara outlier, real sample, as a model for WHG who lived in Ukraine. This modified EEF resembles Hungarian BA.
Perfect with modified EEF and Samara outlier 0.48 0.20 0.33 M828815 Rise552 EEF M630274 I0432 Model for CW Germany M224345 I0103 Ulan iV, Yamnaya 4.5 kya Poland? Samara Poltavka outlier R1a-M417>Z93 2925-2536 BC Composition Germany Espersted 4.5 kya Run time 9.08 Run time - Run time 7.79 Run time Run time 12.04 S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - S-Indian - Baloch 33.24 Baloch - Baloch 14.70 Baloch 20.57 Baloch 20.73 Caucasian 6.58 Caucasian 13.00 Caucasian - Caucasian 5.73 Caucasian 5.60 NE-Euro 56.02 NE-Euro 45.00 NE-Euro 63.14 NE-Euro 56.13 NE-Euro 56.52 SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - SE-Asian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - Siberian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - NE-Asian - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - Papuan - American 2.46 American - American - American 1.17 American 1.92 Beringian 0.75 Beringian - Beringian - Beringian 0.36 Beringian 0.26 Mediterranean - Mediterranean 42.00 Mediterranean 22.15 Mediterranean 15.60 Mediterranean 14.53 SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - SW-Asian - San - San - San - San - San - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - E-African - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - Pygmy - W-African 0.95 W-African 0.11 W-African - W-African 0.47 W-African 0.44
I started by using Hungarian Neolithic Farmer and Hungarian Hunter Gatherer. You know, the guys from the area. It turned to be rather very rough approximation. I could balance Med and NE Euro but Balocha and Caucasian was a miss. Especially Caucasian was too low, and no matter who from Europe I used in the mix the Caucasian admixture was always too low. I tried Yamnaya and Samara guys in the mix, but still I was off. I needed a big help from Near East, from populations high in Caucasian admixture. The best success I had when added Anatolian Bronze Age sample or Kotias the CHG.
First one here is 3 way mix with CHG. There is a possibility that Ukrainian Hunter Gatherer was a mix of WHG 80% and CHG 20% in West Yamnaya, and later it mixed with EEF to become Hungarian BA/Baden type.
0.1 0.4 0.5 Model Actual Dude M603839 F999928 NE7, I-L1228 M325047 KO1, I-L68 Baden/Hungarian BA F999933 BR2, J-M67 Kotias CHG 8 KYA Hungary, Apc-Berekalja I 6.4kya Hungarian, Tiszaszőlős-Domaháza 7.7 kya Composition Hungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő, 3.3kya Run time 13.98 Run time 6.72 Run time 9.43 Run time Run time 15.13 S-Indian 0.62 S-Indian 0 S-Indian 0 S-Indian 0.062 S-Indian - Baloch 36.63 Baloch 0 Baloch 0 Baloch 3.663 Baloch 3.15 Caucasian 54.15 Caucasian 19.04 Caucasian 0 Caucasian 13.031 Caucasian 14.73 NE-Euro 3.84 NE-Euro 16.69 NE-Euro 80.37 NE-Euro 47.245 NE-Euro 46.18 SE-Asian 0.59 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0.059 SE-Asian 0.2 Siberian 0.77 Siberian 0 Siberian 0 Siberian 0.077 Siberian - NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian - Papuan 0.15 Papuan 0 Papuan 0.53 Papuan 0.28 Papuan 0.18 American 0 American 0 American 0 American 0 American - Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian - Mediterranean 0 Mediterranean 56.18 Mediterranean 18.59 Mediterranean 31.767 Mediterranean 31.73 SW-Asian 0 SW-Asian 7.96 SW-Asian 0 SW-Asian 3.184 SW-Asian 3.33 San 0 San 0 San 0 San 0 San - E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African - Pygmy 0.25 Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0.025 Pygmy - W-African 3.01 W-African 0.11 W-African 0.5 W-African 0.595 W-African 0.48
Second very good mix is with Anatolia Bronze Age. Denoting a possibility of huge population movement from Anatolia into Balkans during Early Bronze Age, reaching Hungarian Area too. This could account for rather high Caucasian admixture in today's Balkans.
0.1 0.4 0.5 Model M536324 I1658 F999928 NE7, I-L1228 M325047 KO1, I-L68 Baden/Hungarian BA F999933 BR2, J-M67 Anatolia EBA Hungary, Apc-Berekalja I 6.4kya Hungarian, Tiszaszőlős-Domaháza 7.7 kya Composition Hungary, Ludas-Varjú-dűlő, 3.3kya Run time 8.22 Run time 6.72 Run time 9.43 Run time Run time 15.13 S-Indian 0.27 S-Indian 0 S-Indian 0 S-Indian 0.027 S-Indian - Baloch 25.53 Baloch 0 Baloch 0 Baloch 2.553 Baloch 3.15 Caucasian 56.75 Caucasian 19.04 Caucasian 0 Caucasian 13.291 Caucasian 14.73 NE-Euro 4.79 NE-Euro 16.69 NE-Euro 80.37 NE-Euro 47.34 NE-Euro 46.18 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0 SE-Asian 0.2 Siberian 0 Siberian 0 Siberian 0 Siberian 0 Siberian - NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian 0 NE-Asian - Papuan 0 Papuan 0 Papuan 0.53 Papuan 0.265 Papuan 0.18 American 0 American 0 American 0 American 0 American - Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian 0 Beringian - Mediterranean 5.88 Mediterranean 56.18 Mediterranean 18.59 Mediterranean 32.355 Mediterranean 31.73 SW-Asian 6.45 SW-Asian 7.96 SW-Asian 0 SW-Asian 3.829 SW-Asian 3.33 San 0 San 0 San 0 San 0 San - E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African 0 E-African - Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0 Pygmy 0 Pygmy - W-African 0.33 W-African 0.11 W-African 0.5 W-African 0.327 W-African 0.48
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