Mediterranean Europe major source of European Neolithic?

[bicicleur 2]

Afaik it was more like a family. Population is the wrong word perhaps, but then again we're talking about H&Gs.

yes, I don't think much replacement was required, and no Oase admixture remained
Aurignacians were allready at the Danube in Austria 43.5 ka, probably derived from the proto-Aurignacians further down south
http://www.aggsbach.de/2014/09/new-...of-the-classic-aurignacian-in-central-europe/
ca 42 ka they were in the Swäbische Alp, southeren Germany and ca 39.5 ka they expanded west to France and east till the Don river
a bit later they also expanded to Mediterranean Europe, where proto-Aurignacian was before

 

[LeBrok]

what oase population?
IMO he was a loner, not a whole population
his cultural affiliation is unknwon, his DNA doesn't fit with any other DNA

It is not that. Oase and Ust-Ishim are the oldest HSS samples ever tested. They are both 45 thousand years old. So old that even though they both live a continent away from each other they look like coming from same tribe. Although Oase have already more NE Euro. They are so old that they didn't developed local mutations as we know them today. That's why Oasis doesn't look like ancestor of European, but he as well might be.

F999935	K-M526		T732095	Oase1
Ust'-Ishim, Siberia	45kya		Romania, Central Balkans	40kya
Run time	21.09		Run time	4.52
S-Indian	26.72		S-Indian	26.35
Baloch	8.4		Baloch	6.99
Caucasian	-		Caucasian	2.19
NE-Euro	6.51		NE-Euro	16.81
SE-Asian	12.11		SE-Asian	14.75
Siberian	2.05		Siberian	0.22
NE-Asian	3.84		NE-Asian	1.21
Papuan	10.9		Papuan	9.3
American	1.13		American	-
Beringian	2.7		Beringian	-
Mediterranean	8.14		Mediterranean	7.61
SW-Asian	4.65		SW-Asian	2.94
San	2.44		San	5.62
E-African	7.27		E-African	3.02
Pygmy	1.74		Pygmy	-
W-African	1.39		W-African	2.99

 

[epoch]

Hence 'sans Basal Eurasian'.

Yes, and there the problem lies.

It does seem like the Magdalenian cluster already has a slight Near Eastern affinity, since the Belgian Goyet individualhas it as well. Though it's rather small when compared with the Mesolithic cluster - so gene flow from the Near East (or the Balkans) must have been continuous.

We have a number of papers that show that European hunter-gatherers went through an extreme bottle neck during LGM. Nevertheless you propose a constant trickle of fresh gene flow into that same LGM refuge? That cannot both be true.

Not sure how you want to square that with an Aurignacian backmigration, especially when the Magdalenian populations that are being replaced generally show a more marked Aurignacian affinity than the Villabruna cluster that succeeds them.

I have a hunch that the messy classification of the Aurignac points to more than one population.

It doesn't, but I don't see a reason to believe there was a backmigration either. Aurignacoid technologies must have come to Europe with a migration of hunter gatherers from the east who replaced the Oase populations, likely via Central Asia through the Zagros, which would be the most parsimonious point of origin for the corresponding Levantine cultures.

There is more than one piece of evidence pointing to some sort of back migration. Haplogroup U6's oldest form is found in Muierii. The bottle neck argument above. The reasons I gave a few posts back with the three options on how the admixture may have come about. If you consider Zagros Aurignacian the source of Levantine you basically already half way of what I propose.

The paper was published before 2009, so all dates are a bit off.

Never mind, stuff gets updated.

Afaik it was more like a family. Population is the wrong word perhaps, but then again we're talking about H&Gs.

Oase 1 left no trace in Europeans. However, Kostenki 14, which at the very best may be a couple of thousand years younger than Oase 1 but most likely for all practical purposes can be considered contemporary to it, was clearly an European. Furthermore, if I were to hunt mammoths I would naturally follow herds from Kostenki , though the Moravian passage to South Germany and France, 44.000 to 40.000 (see bicicleur's post above) years ago. So it may very well be not via the Iron Gate that Europe got populated.

http://eurogenes.blogspot.nl/2016/05/following-mammoth-herds.html

 

[epoch]

It is not that. Oase and Ust-Ishim are the oldest HSS samples ever tested. They are both 45 thousand years old. So old that even though they both live a continent away from each other they look like coming from same tribe. Although Oase have already more NE Euro. They are so old that they didn't developed local mutations as we know them today. That's why Oasis doesn't look like ancestor of European, but he as well might be.

F999935	K-M526		T732095	Oase1
Ust'-Ishim, Siberia	45kya		Romania, Central Balkans	40kya
Run time	21.09		Run time	4.52
S-Indian	26.72		S-Indian	26.35
Baloch	8.4		Baloch	6.99
Caucasian	-		Caucasian	2.19
NE-Euro	6.51		NE-Euro	16.81
SE-Asian	12.11		SE-Asian	14.75
Siberian	2.05		Siberian	0.22
NE-Asian	3.84		NE-Asian	1.21
Papuan	10.9		Papuan	9.3
American	1.13		American	-
Beringian	2.7		Beringian	-
Mediterranean	8.14		Mediterranean	7.61
SW-Asian	4.65		SW-Asian	2.94
San	2.44		San	5.62
E-African	7.27		E-African	3.02
Pygmy	1.74		Pygmy	-
W-African	1.39		W-African	2.99

The Oase 1 paper estimated it 42.000 - 37.000 yo. Kostenki 14 differs not much in age. You should add K14.

EDIT: Also, lumping Oase 1 and Ust'-Ishim together doesn't work well. UI chooses everything over Oase 1 in D-stats. Oase 1 doesn't seem to choose.

 

[bicicleur 2]

The Oase 1 paper estimated it 42.000 - 37.000 yo. Kostenki 14 differs not much in age. You should add K14.

I bet Kostenki 14 will look more ancestral to Europeans, allthough comparing these very old samples with contemporary ones may be misleading. Somehow you want to total 100 % while these anciant samples don't match to a 100 % mix of contemporary people.
These very old samples should be compared to paleolithic Europe and other paleolithic populations.

 

[LeBrok]

Here are changes through time. We can see dropping S Indian, dropping SE Asian, rising NE Euro and rising Mediterranean. Changes which developed WHG.

T732095	Oase1		F999936	C-V199					M225927			M325047	KO1, I-L68
Romania, Central Balkans	40kya		Kostenki	37kya		Vestonice, Czech 24Kya	El Miron Spain	18 kya		Hungarian, Tiszaszőlős-Domaháza	7.7 kya
Run time	4.52		Run time	18.02		Run time			Run time	6.76		Run time	9.43
S-Indian	26.35		S-Indian	13.18		S-Indian	14.06		S-Indian	5.3		S-Indian	-
Baloch	6.99		Baloch	12.49		Baloch	1.68		Baloch	-		Baloch	-
Caucasian	2.19		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-
NE-Euro	16.81		NE-Euro	29.02		NE-Euro	41.3		NE-Euro	54.59		NE-Euro	80.37
SE-Asian	14.75		SE-Asian	4.28		SE-Asian	0.8		SE-Asian	5.79		SE-Asian	-
Siberian	0.22		Siberian	1.75		Siberian	3.98		Siberian	0.82		Siberian	-
NE-Asian	1.21		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-
Papuan	9.3		Papuan	5.16		Papuan	4.65		Papuan	2.84		Papuan	0.53
American	-		American	3.32		American	3.75		American	1.27		American	-
Beringian	-		Beringian	1.43		Beringian	-		Beringian	-		Beringian	-
Mediterranean	7.61		Mediterranean	18.76		Mediterranean	23.93		Mediterranean	28.84		Mediterranean	18.59
SW-Asian	2.94		SW-Asian	5.89		SW-Asian	2.99		SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-
San	5.62		San	1.24		San	1.27		San	0.12		San	-
E-African	3.02		E-African	1.82		E-African	0.42		E-African	-		E-African	-
Pygmy	-		Pygmy	0.92		Pygmy	-		Pygmy	-		Pygmy	-
W-African	2.99		W-African	0.73		W-African	1.18		W-African	0.42		W-African	0.5

 

[epoch]

Here are changes through time. We can see dropping S Indian, dropping SE Asian, rising NE Euro and rising Mediterranean. Changes which developed WHG.

The point is that this is a match against modern populations. This blotches everything. For instance, the Baloch component eats up ANE as well as Iranian_N. NE_Euro will eat up both ANE and WHG. Mediterranean will sweep up WHG and EEF/Anatolian. We pretty much know Anatolian is a mix of some European HG and Basal. When did these admix? How much from that Mediterranean will come via either admixtures?

 

[bicicleur 2]

Here are changes through time. We can see dropping S Indian, dropping SE Asian, rising NE Euro and rising Mediterranean. Changes which developed WHG.

we see S.Indian going down and NE Euro and Medeiterranean going up, except for the Mediterranean in the KO1 WHG.
how would you explain that?

 

[LeBrok]

we see S.Indian going down and NE Euro and Medeiterranean going up, except for the Mediterranean in the KO1 WHG.
how would you explain that?

Med is the strongest in south Europe and weaker in Northern. These are the variations in WHG to SHG. I wish we had this Ukrainian WHG type in GedMatch.

F999915	C-V183		F999918	I-L460		M325047	KO1, I-L68	F999917	I-L416
La Braña, Spain, Leon	7 kya		Loschbour, Luxembourg	7 kya		Hungarian, Tiszaszőlős-Domaháza	7.7 kya		Motala 12 Östergötland, Sweden	7 kya
Run time	8.49		Run time	14.93		Run time	9.43		Run time	8.67
S-Indian	-		S-Indian	-		S-Indian	-		S-Indian	-
Baloch	-		Baloch	-		Baloch	-		Baloch	-
Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-
NE-Euro	75.79		NE-Euro	77.83		NE-Euro	80.37		NE-Euro	90.24
SE-Asian	1.93		SE-Asian	0.44		SE-Asian	-		SE-Asian	-
Siberian	-		Siberian	-		Siberian	-		Siberian	0.07
NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-
Papuan	0.54		Papuan	0.84		Papuan	0.53		Papuan	0.57
American	-		American	-		American	-		American	1.58
Beringian	-		Beringian	-		Beringian	-		Beringian	0.68
Mediterranean	21.55		Mediterranean	20.66		Mediterranean	18.59		Mediterranean	6.83
SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-
San	-		San	-		San	-		San	-
E-African	-		E-African	-		E-African	-		E-African	-
Pygmy	0.17		Pygmy	-		Pygmy	-		Pygmy	-
W-African	-		W-African	0.17		W-African	0.5		W-African	-

 

[bicicleur 2]

Med is the strongest in south Europe and weaker in Northern. These are the variations in WHG to SHG. I wish we had this Ukrainian WHG type in GedMatch.

so SHG has even more NE Euro and less Med

it might be interesting to compare with this K = 14 admix

it says Ko1 is 100 WHG-like, while Motala has also some EHG-like component
in pitted ware, a 3rd component appears, which is EEF-like

Kostenki is not even 50 % EHG-like, while El Miron and Villabruna clusters are allmost 100 % WHG-like
Vestonice cluster is intermediate between Kostenki and ElMiron/Villabruna

 

[LeBrok]

so SHG has even more NE Euro and less Med




it might be interesting to compare with this K = 14 admix

it says Ko1 is 100 WHG-like, while Motala has also some EHG-like component
in pitted ware, a 3rd component appears, which is EEF-like

Kostenki is not even 50 % EHG-like, while El Miron and Villabruna clusters are allmost 100 % WHG-like
Vestonice cluster is intermediate between Kostenki and ElMiron/Villabruna

Since 14kya they are rather the same, like from one tribe. However El Miron, the oldest, sticks out from this crowd.

M225927			M236020		M600205			F999918	I-L460
El Miron Spain	18 kya		Villabruna, Italy	14 kya		Bichon, Switzerland	13.6 kya		Loschbour, Luxembourg	7 kya
Run time	6.76		Run time	8.6		Run time	12.78		Run time	14.93
S-Indian	5.3		S-Indian	-		S-Indian	-		S-Indian	-
Baloch	-		Baloch	-		Baloch	-		Baloch	-
Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-
NE-Euro	54.59		NE-Euro	74.57		NE-Euro	71.94		NE-Euro	77.83
SE-Asian	5.79		SE-Asian	0.65		SE-Asian	1.35		SE-Asian	0.44
Siberian	0.82		Siberian	-		Siberian	-		Siberian	-
NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	0.13		NE-Asian	-
Papuan	2.84		Papuan	0.31		Papuan	1.23		Papuan	0.84
American	1.27		American	-		American	-		American	-
Beringian	-		Beringian	-		Beringian	-		Beringian	-
Mediterranean	28.84		Mediterranean	23.43		Mediterranean	22.85		Mediterranean	20.66
SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-
San	0.12		San	-		San	0.29		San	-
E-African	-		E-African	-		E-African	-		E-African	-
Pygmy	-		Pygmy	0.07		Pygmy	0.21		Pygmy	-
W-African	0.42		W-African	0.95		W-African	2		W-African	0.17

 

[LeBrok]

El Miron looks like a transition from pre LGM type to WHG. Plus it has some SE Asian and elevated Med, which could suggest that his LGM refugium could have been in Anatolia? Or perhaps a contact with Levant type/causin h-gs who migrated to NW Africa?

M561778		M225927			M236020
Vestonice, Czech 24Kya	El Miron Spain	18 kya		Villabruna, Italy	14 kya
Run time		Run time	6.76		Run time	8.6
S-Indian	14.06		S-Indian	5.3		S-Indian	-
Baloch	1.68		Baloch	-		Baloch	-
Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-		Caucasian	-
NE-Euro	41.3		NE-Euro	54.59		NE-Euro	74.57
SE-Asian	0.8		SE-Asian	5.79		SE-Asian	0.65
Siberian	3.98		Siberian	0.82		Siberian	-
NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-		NE-Asian	-
Papuan	4.65		Papuan	2.84		Papuan	0.31
American	3.75		American	1.27		American	-
Beringian	-		Beringian	-		Beringian	-
Mediterranean	23.93		Mediterranean	28.84		Mediterranean	23.43
SW-Asian	2.99		SW-Asian	-		SW-Asian	-
San	1.27		San	0.12		San	-
E-African	0.42		E-African	-		E-African	-
Pygmy	-		Pygmy	-		Pygmy	0.07
W-African	1.18		W-African	0.42		W-African	0.95

 

[bix]

El Miron looks like a transition from pre LGM type to WHG. Plus it has some SE Asian and elevated Med, which could suggest that his LGM refugium could have been in Anatolia? Or perhaps a contact with Levant type/causin h-gs who migrated to NW Africa?

The LGM ended between 18,000 and 17,000 BP, so technically, IMO, El Miron was already in the Franco-Cantabrian Refuge. As I've opined before, I think there was probably a perennial Mediterranean population that was the source of this Near Eastern element/admixture down near the mouths of the Ebro and Rhone, around the Gulf of Lion to the Gulf of Genoa with connections to the Adriatic... Maybe the source of the Azilian?

 

[epoch]

The LGM ended between 18,000 and 17,000 BP, so technically, IMO, El Miron was already in the Franco-Cantabrian Refuge. As I've opined before, I think there was probably a perennial Mediterranean population that was the source of this Near Eastern element/admixture down near the mouths of the Ebro and Rhone, around the Gulf of Lion to the Gulf of Genoa with connections to the Adriatic... Maybe the source of the Azilian?

It is such a colossal pity that Paglicci71 yielded far too few (4000) SNP's for proper analysis. Aged 19,250-18,210 bp. Yielded mtDNA U5b2b.

Must be a key sample. They should seriously attempt to resample it.

 

[MOESAN]

thanks for the runs, Lebrok - I like them -

 

[LeBrok]

The LGM ended between 18,000 and 17,000 BP, so technically, IMO, El Miron was already in the Franco-Cantabrian Refuge. As I've opined before, I think there was probably a perennial Mediterranean population that was the source of this Near Eastern element/admixture down near the mouths of the Ebro and Rhone, around the Gulf of Lion to the Gulf of Genoa with connections to the Adriatic... Maybe the source of the Azilian?

Sounds believable.

 

[LeBrok]

thanks for the runs, Lebrok - I like them -

I'm glad to hear that.

 

[bicicleur 2]

The LGM ended between 18,000 and 17,000 BP, so technically, IMO, El Miron was already in the Franco-Cantabrian Refuge. As I've opined before, I think there was probably a perennial Mediterranean population that was the source of this Near Eastern element/admixture down near the mouths of the Ebro and Rhone, around the Gulf of Lion to the Gulf of Genoa with connections to the Adriatic... Maybe the source of the Azilian?

25 ka shouldered points were developped in Central Europe Moravia/Middle Danube
this area was densely populated till 25 ka after which depopulation started because of the climate
those shouldered points spread all over Europe, it was also used by Solutreans and Magdalenians
so it is very likely that the El Miron cluster had at least some of that Central European admixture

 

[MarkoZ]

Yes, and there the problem lies.

I don't see a problem here.

We have a number of papers that show that European hunter-gatherers went through an extreme bottle neck during LGM. Nevertheless you propose a constant trickle of fresh gene flow into that same LGM refuge? That cannot both be true.

I haven't proposed anything - I'm merely parroting the conclusions of Fu et al., which not coincidentally best explain the available evidence.

The genetic bottle necks that affected West Eurasian hunter gatherers should be related to extreme climate change at the beginning and the end of the Ice Age that would have lead to mass extinction of plant and animal species. There were no obstacles ti Mediterranean migration in the intermediate period - in fact one wouldn't even had to travel all the way north to the Western Balkans to get into Italy (the likely epicenter of the Mediterranean Epigravettian) due to lower sea levels.

Never mind, stuff gets updated.

Yes, but Intcal calibration affects all samples.

Anyway, the most important point is that in the paper authored by Fu et al. the Near Eastern affinity doesn't come from the West Eurasian branch - see their model for the Satsurbalia-Kotias hunter gatherers:

I would be extremely surprised if this affinity and the Italian Epigravettian's P1 lineage was hiding somewhere in the European Aurignacian.

 

[epoch]

I don't see a problem here.

It is exactly in the admixture model Fu et al you pasted in this response. That models Satsurblia as 32% Basal Eurasian and 68% Mal'ta related ancestry. As there is no Basal in WHG, which I get from this paper, then the Middle-Eastern affinity that WHG shares with CHG must be ANE. But that is basically means that the admixture came from the north.

I haven't proposed anything - I'm merely parroting the conclusions of Fu et al., which not coincidentally best explain the available evidence.

Fu et al stays clear of proposing a migration from the Middle-East.

The genetic bottle necks that affected West Eurasian hunter gatherers should be related to extreme climate change at the beginning and the end of the Ice Age that would have lead to mass extinction of plant and animal species.

Exactly the time we see the Middle-Eastern affinity for the first time. In the red lady of El Miron, who has been modeled as 1/3 (or 2/3 in the pasted admixture graph) of WHG and lived during the LGM. So my argument stands.

There were no obstacles ti Mediterranean migration in the intermediate period - in fact one wouldn't even had to travel all the way north to the Western Balkans to get into Italy (the likely epicenter of the Mediterranean Epigravettian) due to lower sea levels.

During LGM there was a small sound between Sicily and Tunesia, which indeed could have been traversed. But then the bottle neck shouldn't have been there. Furthermore you have to assume a WHG like population in North-West Africa that had no Basal Admixture. That would all be nice and dandy but uniparental markers of ice age Europe don't provide any support for that. Unless the current population of North-West Africa have no ancestry at all of that population, i.e. it moved entirely to Italy.

Also, this population should carry ANE because of the admixture graph you pasted.

Yes, but Intcal calibration affects all samples.

Anyway, the most important point is that in the paper authored by Fu et al. the Near Eastern affinity doesn't come from the West Eurasian branch - see their model for the Satsurbalia-Kotias hunter gatherers:

I would be extremely surprised if this affinity and the Italian Epigravettian's P1 lineage was hiding somewhere in the European Aurignacian.