Their relative positions on the PCA are clearer
here . Sicilians seem primarily slightly northeastern compared to Mycenaeans, which speaks to roughly "equal" amounts of further steppe and near eastern ancestry in Sicilians. But position based on just the first two PCs can be potentially misleading since it basically shows you the relative amounts of HG vs Basal and ANE vs non-ANE. In other analyses, it's clear that part of the Anatolia_N in Southern Europe has been apparently replaced by a bit of the very related Levant_N, and that sort of ancestry seems to show a peak in Sicilians/Calabrians, with Cretans close to them. The recent Sarno study was interesting in that regard too and shows something similar. I'm speaking here of the
extra Levant that can't be defined as part of the Anatolia_N. "Exact percentages" won't be resolved until we get proximal samples though, like you said.
On the other hand, most of the more important and plentiful Caucasus in Southern Europe seems to already be quite old in most of it, which indeed quite a few people didn't seem to be expecting. Nonetheless, near eastern ancestry increasing in all of Southern Europe since the Bronze Age (or even the Iron Age for at least parts of it) is an almost definite yes for me at this point but I'll gladly change my mind if future samples speak against that. But it's clear that Sicilians don't seem to be quite the 'near-easternized' population some people were expecting compared to ancient uber-steppe(?) Southern Europe. They're rather more ANE/eastern, like the rest of Southern Europe.
As for the ss/nth toponyms, I have brought that up in the past too in relation with Italy where they seem to exist as well (and more towards the center and south IIRC, in fact) and wondered if it weren't part of a later non-IE migration from Anatolia that affected both the Balkans and Italy.
From the link to which you sent me, you're basing that conclusion on the Sicilian Beaker sample. That may indeed be the case. On the other hand using that sample might not be accurate for the reasons I stated above.
Also, not everyone interprets the data in the same way:
"Matt:
"From visual analysis, it looks like to get to Sicilians, the easiest ancient model is Mycenaean+Central_European (though this may or may not be most historically and linguistically sensible). For Balkans it's Mycenaean+Slavic. The Balkans BA populations don't seem quite right as ancestral without extensive Anatolia_BA like ancestry.}
As for
some people not seeing that the "CHG" like ancestry could have started arriving in Europe very early, it seemed to me that for years I was the only one seeing that it could have been like that. Oetzi's genome alone should have been enough of a clue, along with archaeological evidence. You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see that the more densely populated regions of southern Europe might not have been as impacted by the Indo-Europeans as Central Europe with its numerous population crashes, or the far northeast and Britain, which were barely populated. The fact that people didn't, might in some cases mean just not knowing very much about Italian or Greek or Balkan pre-history, but some people denied it because it didn't fit their preferred narrative.
Concerning the "Levantine" admixture, I have never denied that some of it may be pretty recent. It's possible that more of the "Moorish" influx into Sicily came from the Middle East than has seemed probable from the historical evidence, although that wouldn't explain the data for Calabria. Likewise, for some strange reason, it may be that Rome decided to send all of its Near Eastern slaves to Sicily, although it makes no sense to me. Also, again, it wouldn't explain the numbers in mountainous Calabria. However, I don't know the total percentage, much less
how much is "recent", whether it's a little or a lot, and neither does anyone else. What I have objected to is that people have pretended that they do know, and often for very suspect motives.
I don't know to what "other" analyses you refer, but if it's similar to the analyses that posited so much of this "CHG like" ancestry was also "recent", then I wouldn't be very impressed. Modeling modern Sicilians with Unetice, for example, makes no sense to me. Whatever "Indo-European" from Central Europe made it to Sicily after traversing the entire peninsula and then crossing to the island would have been heavily diluted by the time it arrived. Extra "Levant" is obviously going to have to be added in modeling like that. As to Sarno et al, Falco's post is informative.
Going back for a moment to Vucedol, I find this interesting:
Vucedol distance%=2.267
"Remedello_BA:RISE489" 36.85
"Yamnaya_Samara:I0443" 29.5
"Anatolia_BA" 16.75
"Beaker_Sicily:I4930" 12.45
"Greece_Peloponnese_N:I3920" 3.55
"Levant_N" 0.9
1. CLOSEST SINGLE ITEM DISTANCE%"
Italian_Tuscan:NA20505 2.979706
Italian_Bergamo:HGDP01152 4.094883
Balkans_BA 4.120439
Italian_South:ITS7 4.281019
Italian_South:ITS7 4.281019
Sicilian 4.417910
Greek 5.438889
Vucedol is closer to Tuscans than I am going by this, and by some lights, I'm half Tuscan.
These are interesting too:
Beaker_Sicily
Tiszapolgar_ECA 39.4 %
Armenia_EBA 23.1 %
Greece_Peloponnese_N:I3709 19.6 %
Remedello_BA 15.1 %
Anatolia_BA 2.8 %
Beaker Northern Italy :I2478
Beaker_central Europe 48.1%
Remedello 51.9%
Beaker NI: I2477
Remedello 61.5%
Tizaapolgar ECA 37.9%
Btw, has anyone ever told you that your writing "voice" is very similar to that of "Agamemnon" on anthrogenica. Very strong resemblance, imo.
@Davef,
Don't fall into the Sikeliot trap. Not much difference in terms of "northern" ancestry between some mainland Greeks and Sicilians.