J2b2-L283 (proto-illyrian)

[Wanderer]

It can be native in Balkans. It is more economical to assume it is native.

There were probably hunter gatherers in parts of Balkans maybe similar to Anatolian HGs. It could have existed among them.

It formed 9700 years before but the TMRCA is 5500 ybp. J2b-L283 and J2b-Z2432 should have formed in the same region almost 10000 years ago. That may make some people believe it is from Caucasus but there is no real reason to place it in the Caucasus specifically. Imho both could have originated west of it (or east of it for that matter).

The TMRCA shows that it could have become extinct and it expands primarily in Europe with a center of dispersion most likely in Europe.

It can be native in Balkans. It is more economical to assume it is native.

There were probably hunter gatherers in parts of Balkans maybe similar to Anatolian HGs. It could have existed among them.

It formed 9700 years before but the TMRCA is 5500 ybp. J2b-L283 and J2b-Z2432 should have formed in the same region almost 10000 years ago. That may make some people believe it is from Caucasus but there is no real reason to place it in the Caucasus specifically. Imho both could have originated west of it (or east of it for that matter).

The TMRCA shows that it could have become extinct and it expands primarily in Europe with a center of dispersion most likely in Europe.

Our J-L283 was bottlenecked for thoussnds of years from when it was formed. It doesnt make sense that it formed on mainland europe because it was bottlenecked. If it formed in europe it would maybe make sense it formed on a island. Maybe in the central medditernean since the ice age would have caused the land in the center to sink underwater and the medditernean sea would be formed. Before that it was split between two bodies of sea it looks like and forming extra islands after the ice age ended and sea levels rose again. But not sure since I cannot find a good map of europe 10,000- 12000 years ago. Our J-L283 ancestor would be stranded on a island and bottlenecked for sometime. Maybe a decendant later went to the mainland. If they were not in the caucaus and in europe this would be my theory. Otherwise if they came from caucus i would imagine the came through ship into the balkans or traversed along the lower pontic

I believe it was said that we literally decended from a single father to single son for thousands of years from J2b2 to J-L283

 

[Wanderer]

ALB_MBA & ALB_EBA can be modeled as Ukraine Yamnaya + Albania Chalcolithic. It seems Trojet and Polska where on to something.

Cetina can be modeled with the first model as well, but also with Albania EBA + Albania Chl, while Albania cant be successfully modeled with Albania EBA + Albania Chl.


As was Jovialis:

Montenegro LBA can also be modeled with Catacomb/ it can also be modeled with Cetina or Ukr Yamnaya + Alb Chl

Legend: For a model to be viable se(standard error) has to be 0.05. From what I understand for a model to be viable the p value has to be greater than the se.

Isn't that dealing with autosomal dna? Not haplogroup dna?
It still has albania chacolithic in all of the models

There seems to be a typo here though:

Edit no typo. Just miss read

Not sure what all those numbers mean.
Im not a geneticist.

 

[Archetype0ne]

Isn't that dealing with autosomal dna? Not haplogroup dna?
It still has albania chacolithic in all of the models

There seems to be a typo here though:

Cetina can be modeled with the first model as well, but also with Albania EBA + Albania Chl, while Albania cant be successfully modeled with Albania EBA + Albania Chl.

Not sure what all those numbers mean.
Im not a geneticist.

A missing word there, Albania MBA can't successfully be modeled with Albania EBA + Albania CHL.
Edit: It seems this is likely due to low coverage of ~15%. Testing with the Montenegro samples of higher quality such model indeed works. So who knows...

Albania Chl is in all of them, because that's how one expects the peoples, steppe people met in the region to look like (although it shows low European HG ancestry, WHG):

The samples from Albania (Fig. S 35) range from the Neolithic to medieval period and present a very interesting picture of the evolution of the population there, with some surprises. Early Neolithic to Copper Age Albania is dominated by Anatolian Neolithic-related ancestry without any evidence for the absorption of any European hunter-gatherer population. Two Neolithic-to-Chalcolithic samples from Tren Cave at the southern border of lake Prespa (one of which, I13840 is dated to 4245-4051 calBCE) show a trace amount of CHG ancestry (5±2% in total and 7±3% in I13840) on top of the Anatolian Neolithic background, similar to samples from the Aegean that we will discuss in our section on Greece.EHG ancestry becomes ubiquitous after this time and reaches up to 35±3% in an outlier individual (I14689) from Çinamak; such high levels of EHG ancestry are of course not unheard of in mainland Europe as they were found in individuals of the Corded Ware culture(8). This individual, the earliest known one with EHG ancestry from the western Balkans dates to the same period (2831-2480 calBCE). This suggests a parallel appearance of steppe ancestry in Central Europe and in the western Balkans, well beyond the geographical limits of the steppe itself. The bulk of the individuals from Çinamak are from the 1st millennium BCE and have a lower 16±2% EHG ancestry on average

I am not a geneticist either btw, just using a statistical tool focused on autosomal genetics.
This basically shows that Trojets and Polskas Sredni Stog theories very likely are on the money.
It is a bit messier to analyze, but it also should not be a foregone conclusion that L283 arrived into Albania from the North Western Balkans. Rather it remains to be seen where the dice fall, as even the opposite can be true, or a parallel theory, where both regions of north west and south west Balkans received the input as a radiation of Yamnaya/Catacomb/Sredni Stog genes from around the hinterland.

 

[Wanderer]

A missing word there, Albania MBA can't successfully be modeled with Albania EBA + Albania CHL.
Albania Chl is in all of them, because that's how one expects the peoples, steppe people met in the region to look like (although it shows low European HG ancestry, WHG):



I am not a geneticist either btw, just using a statistical tool focused on autosomal genetics.
This basically shows that Trojets and Polskas Sredni Stog theories very likely are on the money.
It is a bit messier to analyze, but it also should not be a foregone conclusion that L283 arrived into Albania from the North Western Balkans. Rather it remains to be seen where the dice fall, as even the opposite can be true, or a parallel theory, where both regions of north west and south west Balkans received the input as a radiation of Yamnaya/Catacomb/Sredni Stog genes from around the hinterland.

What tools is that and how did you download the sample data to analyze?
Is there a tutorial?

 

[Archetype0ne]

What tools is that and how did you download the sample data to analyze?
Is there a tutorial?

User eupator did a very nice job explaining the basics:
https://www.eupedia.com/forum/threads/42684-admixtools2-TUTORIAL-for-WINDOWS?p=652185

 

[A. Papadimitriou]

Our J-L283 was bottlenecked for thoussnds of years from when it was formed. It doesnt make sense that it formed on mainland europe because it was bottlenecked. If it formed in europe it would maybe make sense it formed on a island. Maybe in the central medditernean since the ice age would have caused the land in the center to sink underwater and the medditernean sea would be formed. Before that it was split between two bodies of sea it looks like and forming extra islands after the ice age ended and sea levels rose again. But not sure since I cannot find a good map of europe 10,000- 12000 years ago. Our J-L283 ancestor would be stranded on a island and bottlenecked for sometime. Maybe a decendant later went to the mainland. If they were not in the caucaus and in europe this would be my theory. Otherwise if they came from caucus i would imagine the came through ship into the balkans or traversed along the lower pontic
I believe it was said that we literally decended from a single father to single son for thousands of years from J2b2 to J-L283

I have thought about that too. A large part of Adriatic was a a plain during the LGM.

Also (this may be important for other haplogroups or an important parallel at least), part of the Aegean sea was a plain, with one large island conventionally called Cycladia today. Paros and Naxos etc were essentially its mountains. https://www.researchgate.net/figure...-of-Cycladia-at-the-LGM-ca-23-18_fig1_5275721

 

[Galaxy Overlord]

I have a theory but and I was wondering if you guys think its relevant that the western Balkan samples of Cetina and Maros cultures appear to correlate as both being periphery bell beaker and likely both received migrations from Austria/West Hungary bell beakers.

View attachment 13540

 

[PaleoRevenge]

Founder effect my ass. The Western Balkans Slavs need a dominant (than HRV_IA) East Balkanic source to be modelled.

Target: Croatian Distance: 0.8114% / 0.00811402
72.8	Polish
18.0	BGR_IA
9.2	HRV_IA

Target: Croatian Distance: 0.8114% / 0.00811402
72.8	Polish
18.0	BGR_IA
9.2	HRV_IA

The Croat Roman and Byzantine samples are clear. Illyrians were heavily altered with Levant and Anatolian mixture. In a way the model you are using is a illusion. If you use the Kënetë(850 AD Kukes) sample as a proxy for Romanized Illyrians, you will find it that it will work quite well for west Balkan Slavs as the pre-Slavic component.

 

[Galaxy Overlord]

Okay I'm writing this down so we all agree on the culture route from present to past: Albanian>Illyrian>Glasinac>Cetina>?

Anyone wanna speculate further?

 

[Archetype0ne]

Okay I'm writing this down so we all agree on the culture route from present to past: Albanian>Illyrian>Glasinac>Cetina>?

Anyone wanna speculate further?

I am a total noob on cultures for the most part, but simply from playing around with models I would wager .........>Cetina>Catacomb>Yamnaya>Sredni Stog. Up to Cetina its confirmed, but beyond I think we need to see that rumored Moldova sample and its autosomal to tell.

 

[mount123]

The Croat Roman and Byzantine samples are clear. Illyrians were heavily altered with Levant and Anatolian mixture. In a way the model you are using is a illusion. If you use the Kënetë(850 AD Kukes) sample as a proxy for Romanized Illyrians, you will find it that it will work quite well for west Balkan Slavs as the pre-Slavic component.

His model is fine. Kënetë is not in Kukës (maybe you mean another sample), and that sample is not a romanized Illyrian he plots far away from them. The Montenegrin Doclea ~200 AD sample is an example of an Illyrian admixed with other ancestry, or the Gardun samples etc.

Illyrians post Bato's revolts and all Illyrian wars have been heavily displaced and replaced in their homeland so the population after that is not representative of their stock, albeit some are for sure as we have seen.

 

[PaleoRevenge]

His model is fine. Kënetë is not in Kukës (maybe you mean another sample), and that sample is not a romanized Illyrian he plots far away from them. The Montenegrin Doclea ~200 AD sample is an example of an Illyrian admixed with other ancestry, or the Gardun samples etc.

Illyrians post Bato's revolts and all Illyrian wars have been heavily displaced and replaced in their homeland so the population after that is not representative of their stock, albeit some are for sure as we have seen.

^The Kenete(spelled keneta in google maps) sample is from Kukes according to google excel document, I believe this is the sample that's plotted as "medieval" Albanian and is shifted extremely south(opposing the Korca mdv sample). I'd say it's a good proxy of the Illyrian remnants, see the yellow line, the Balkan Slavs including the early Croatian follow the yellow slope.
Time frame wise and geography wise, this is the first Kruja-Komani sample.
http://www.fallingrain.com/world/AL/47/Knete.html

 

[mount123]

^The Kenete(spelled keneta in google maps) sample is from Kukes according to google excel document, I believe this is the sample that's plotted as "medieval" Albanian and is shifted extremely south(opposing the Korca mdv sample). I'd say it's a good proxy of the Illyrian remnants, see the yellow line, the Balkan Slavs including the early Croatian follow the yellow slope.
Time frame wise and geography wise, this is the first Kruja-Komani sample.
http://www.fallingrain.com/world/AL/47/Knete.html

I disagree. There is no chance since he is very southern. Would be rather Byzantine "Greek" of some sort.

 

[PaleoRevenge]

I disagree. There is no chance since he is very southern. Would be rather Byzantine "Greek" of some sort.

I would not dismiss it, does it really cluster away from the Byzantine Croats? I doubt it. Take the time period into consideration as well. After the Slavic invasions, Byzantine rule collapsed. They established the Theme of Dyrrhachium around 802–811. The Bulgarian empire was smothering the region at the time, and this new Byzantine theme was loosely held (probably though autonomous Komani people self-rule).

A decade later or so, the Bulgars took over all of northern Albania.

 

[Hawk]

I agree with Paleo on this one, the non-Slavic part of Croats pulls them to North-Italy so it must be Illyrian/Pannonian-Illyrian, i highly doubt it's Thracian, it's just a calculator-effect.

I am a total noob on cultures for the most part, but simply from playing around with models I would wager .........>Cetina>Catacomb>Yamnaya>Sredni Stog. Up to Cetina its confirmed, but beyond I think we need to see that rumored Moldova sample and its autosomal to tell.

I doubt it's Sredni Stog, it must be somewhere in North Caucasus which joined some Yamnaya rank (perhaps some northern variants of Maykop Culture), or even latter joiners than Yamnaya (some Bell-Beaker group), also, one must not forget Belotic Bela Crkva, the Early Bronze Age Culture from Western Serbia which might be quite important for J2b2-L283.

 

[MOESAN]

It might infer that etruscans may be related to proto illyrians.
Don't know if albanian language is related to etruscan or not but the fact that J-L283 would be in both populations infers that they have common origins.

Etruscan has no recent tight family links with IE, and on another side, they had too Y-R1b post-BB. It's why I'm cautious when defining culture or/and language bearing people by an unique Y- lineage. Diverse cultures of BA/IA show very different levels of uniformity/diversity concerning Y-haplo's so that a rule become hard to set. Pannonia has been a meeting region since long ago, and I suppose late Italics, Veneti have been in contact with Etruscans and Illyrians (which ones? the speakers of the northern part dialects of the Dinaric lands or of the southern part dialects, seemingly more akin to some kind of dardanian if I read well?). I think Etruscans spoke a neolithic language centered first around Hungary. I think also Urnfields period had favored contacts and mixings between pop's and modified some Y-lineages dominances ehre and there, and maybe favoured too languages shifts at the mergins.

 

[mount123]

I doubt it's Sredni Stog, it must be somewhere in North Caucasus which joined some Yamnaya rank (perhaps some northern variants of Maykop Culture), or even latter joiners than Yamnaya (some Bell-Beaker group), also, one must not forget Belotic Bela Crkva, the Early Bronze Age Culture from Western Serbia which might be quite important for J2b2-L283.

I don't think that EBA Belotic Bela Crkva a culture which was alive in the same time frame as EBA Cetina can be ancestral to it as some were posting about it. I think it will most likely yield similar results to other Central Balkan Bronze Age cultures already sampled.

If the rumors about J2b-L283 in MCA Moldova will some day manifest in published papers then the auDNA will be quite important. Most importantly: this clearly predates Maykop or related cultures, and I don't think, given the already present results from that area, that it is going to yield any J2b-L283.

 

[torzio]

Etruscan has no recent tight family links with IE, and on another side, they had too Y-R1b post-BB. It's why I'm cautious when defining culture or/and language bearing people by an unique Y- lineage. Diverse cultures of BA/IA show very different levels of uniformity/diversity concerning Y-haplo's so that a rule become hard to set. Pannonia has been a meeting region since long ago, and I suppose late Italics, Veneti have been in contact with Etruscans and Illyrians (which ones? the speakers of the northern part dialects of the Dinaric lands or of the southern part dialects, seemingly more akin to some kind of dardanian if I read well?). I think Etruscans spoke a neolithic language centered first around Hungary. I think also Urnfields period had favored contacts and mixings between pop's and modified some Y-lineages dominances ehre and there, and maybe favoured too languages shifts at the mergins.

it looks to me that in the very early early times, the italic tribes on the Adriatic sea side where IE linguistically and on the western side they where not

 

[torzio]

His model is fine. Kënetë is not in Kukës (maybe you mean another sample), and that sample is not a romanized Illyrian he plots far away from them. The Montenegrin Doclea ~200 AD sample is an example of an Illyrian admixed with other ancestry, or the Gardun samples etc.

Illyrians post Bato's revolts and all Illyrian wars have been heavily displaced and replaced in their homeland so the population after that is not representative of their stock, albeit some are for sure as we have seen.

which Bato revolt ?......there was more than 1 Bato revolt ( different Bato person )

 

[mount123]

which Bato revolt ?......there was more than 1 Bato revolt ( different Bato person )

Batos' revolts, I've set the apostrophe on the wrong place. Yes, Bellum Batonianum. But certainly the whole process of the "incorporation" of the Illyrian core region into the Roman Empire was brutal to the Illyrian ethnos. Population displacements and replacements followed.