
Originally Posted by
Maciamo
I now have the results of several Belgian people who tested with Living DNA. All got a bit of Scandinavian, and some got a from 1 to 3% of French, Basque, West Balkans, North Anatolian or Kurdish. But what really stood out is that all of them had considerable amount of Italian DNA, and in all but one samples that was exclusively Central Italian/Tuscan DNA. It ranged from 11% (in West Flanders) to 19% (in central Wallonia), with an average of about 15%. This is what I originally estimated to be the genetic contribution of the Romans to the Belgian gene pool, before I revised that estimate down to 5-10% based on the more conservative 'Italian' and 'Broadly South European' components in 23andMe.
Estimating Roman ancestry based on Y-DNA alone is very difficult because the Romans shared most of their haplogroups (such as R1b-U152, G2a-L497, G2a-U1, J2b2a-L283 and maybe even E-V13) with the Hallstatt and La Tène Celts (including the Gauls and Belgae). It's also not clear how haplogroups such as E-M34, E-M81, E-V22, J1, J2a, L1 and T1a got to the Benelux, although the ancient Romans/Italians are prime candidates. Altogether the former group (Italo-Celtic) makes up about 17% of the population. The latter group, that is to say the more recent Middle Eastern influx to the East Med, probably derived for the most part from the Kura-Araxes culture via Greece, amounts to 7.5%.
Based on the modern Y-DNA frequencies in the Latium, each group represent about half of the non-Germanic haplogroups. The ancient and modern Latium might be very different in terms of Y-DNA, but as it is the only good proxy we have at the moment, it is reasonable to say that 15% (± 5%) of Belgian Y-DNA might be of Roman origin. And that is exactly what the autosomal results from Living DNA say! At least now we know that, among all the potential Mediterranean populations that could have contributed to the above haplogroups, the Belgians correlate almost exclusively with the Central Italians autosomally. And indeed there is no other reasonable historical explanation for their presence. 5 or 6 years ago we might still have imagined that E-M34, E-V22, J1, J2a and T1a might have come to the Low Countries with Neolithic farmers. But that can be pretty much ruled out now. Even the G2a in Belgium is mostly of post-Indo-European origin, not Neolithic remnants from the LBK, Rössen or Michelsberg cultures.
Living DNA's autosomal composition isn't perfect yet, as all Belgians are reported to be mostly a mix of Southeast England, East Anglia, South England, Devon and Yorkshire. Overall Belgians get between 60% and 85% of British, depending on the individual, due to the close proximity and historical connections (Belgae, Anglo-Saxons) between the two populations. That should be resolved soon when more samples from the Benelux get tested. But when it comes to clearly differentiated populations (i.e. not immediate neighbours), like Central Italians, the results are pretty amazing.
I am really interested in seeing how other Europeans from former parts of the Roman Empire, especially outside Italy (too high Roman ancestry) and Britain (too low Roman ancestry) will turn out. Please share your results.