Age and TMRCA of common Slavic Y-DNA lineages

[Tomenable]

It is estimated that Proto-Slavs split from Balto-Slavs ca. 4000/3500-2500 years ago:

"(...) There is a near consensus among linguists that the Baltic and Slavic languages stem from a common root, Proto-Balto-Slavic, which separated from other Indo-European languages around 4,500–7,000 years before present (YBP) [1–8] and whose origin is mapped to Central Europe [8]. The Balto-Slavic node was recognized already in the pioneer Indo-European[9]. The split between Baltic and Slavic branches has been dated to around 3,500–2,500 YBP [6–8]. (...)"

And first divisions within the Proto-Slavs could take place already before year 100 CE:

"(...) Our consensus tree (Fig. G in S2 File) suggests the following topological and temporal reconstruction of the Balto-Slavic languages. Initial disintegration of proto-Balto-Slavic into proto-East Baltic and proto-Slavic took place during the 2nd millennium BC*. Proto Slavic splits into 3 major clades, East, West, South Slavic around year 100 AD (1900 Years Before Present). Further diversification of each clade into minor clades (i.e. proto-East Slavic: Ukrainian/Belarusian, Russian; proto-West Slavic: Czech/Slovak, Sorbian, Polish/Kashubian; proto-South Slavic: Serbo-Croatian, Bulgarian, Macedonian) took place during the 5th–7th centuries AD (about 1500–1300 YPB), followed by final shaping of individual languages (1000–500 YBP). (...)"

Let's see how this lines up with age and TMRCA of some Y-DNA lineages which are common among Slavic-speaking populations. Formation age and TMRCA estimates are from YFull, I generally selected lineages with TMRCA between ca. 3000 and ca. 1900 ybp:

R1a-M458 - 4 subclades:

PF7521>Y2604>L260 (formed 4600 ybp, TMRCA 2500 ybp)
PF7521>Y2604>CTS11962>YP515 (formed 3200 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp)
PF7521>Y2604>CTS11962>L1029 (formed 3200 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp)
A11460 (formed 4700 ybp, TMRCA 2700 ybp)

I2a-CTS10228 - 4 subclades:

Y3120 (formed 3800 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp)
Y3120>A2512 (formed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 2200 ybp)
Y3120>Y4460 (formed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 2200 ybp)
Y3120>S17250 (formed 2300 ybp, TMRCA 1850 ybp)

R1a-CTS1211 (M558) - 13 subclades:

Y35>CTS3402>Y2613>Y2609 (formed 3200 ybp, TMRCA 2400 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>YP237>YP582>YP578 (formed 2400 ybp, TMRCA 2400 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>YP237>YP951 (formed 3800 ybp, TMRCA 2500 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>YP237>YP235>YP234>YP295 (formed 3300 ybp, TMRCA 2800 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>YP237>YP235>YP234>YP238 (formed 3300 ybp, TMRCA 2800 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>Y33>CTS8816>Y2902 (formed 4200 ybp, TMRCA 2500 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>Y33>CTS8816>Y3301>L1280 (formed 4200 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp)
Y35>CTS3402>Y33>CTS8816>Y3301>S18681 (formed 4200 ybp, TMRCA 2400 ybp)
Y35>YP4278 (formed 4200 ybp, TMRCA 1850 ybp)
YP343>YP340>P278.2 (formed 3100 ybp, TMRCA 2200 ybp)
YP343>YP340>YP371 (formed 3100 ybp, TMRCA 2300 ybp)
YP343>YP3982 (formed 3700 ybp, TMRCA 2100 ybp)
YP1019>YP1020 (formed 3600 ybp, TMRCA 2600 ybp)

R1a-Z92 - 3 subclades:

Z92>Y4459>YP5520 (formed 3500 ybp, TMRCA 2500 ybp)
Z92>Y4459>YP617>YP573>YP569 (formed 3400 ybp, TMRCA 1900 ybp)
Z92>Z685>Z1907>CTS9551>YP5611 (formed 3900 ybp, TMRCA 1950 ybp)

R1b-Z2103 - 1 subclade:

R1b-Y14300 (formed 4800 ybp, TMRCA 1800 ybp)

 

[Tomenable]

According to some people, most of Y-Full's TMRCA ages are underestimated by ca. 15-25%.

 

[Dibran]

So given the ages, basal M458 would probably be considered Central Corded Ware, since it predates the split. Even the formation of L260, YP515 and L1029 seem to fall within Balto-Slavic. By TMRCA however, Proto-Slavic. If the alignment is to be believed.

 

[Tomenable]

So given the ages, basal M458 would probably be considered Central Corded Ware, since it predates the split. Even the formation of L260, YP515 and L1029 seem to fall within Balto-Slavic. By TMRCA however, Proto-Slavic. If the alignment is to be believed.

We have no idea if it was Central European Corded Ware or for example Belarusian Corded Ware.

So far we just don't have any ancient samples of R1a-M458, only a few Early Medieval samples.