Ygorcs
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Non-ironically you're clearly an intelligent guy - what do you think about L51's origin? Do you really think it waded through the densely populated Balkans as an elite lineage, only to leave no genetic trace? I'll remind you that ALL the Steppe R1b found in the Balkans, all the way up to Vucedol, is Z2103. If it didn't come from the Balkans, how could it have come from the Steppe - and if it didn't come from the Steppe, how could it have come from anywhere else other than the Bell Beaker culture (gaining Steppe admixture from CW women)?
Also, North Atlantid is so painfully obviously Baskid+Corded it irritates me...
Thanks for your words, mate. R1b-L51 is really a big puzzle for me (for everyone who really strives to follow the data, I think). I won't pretend I have any favorite hypothesis that I support more than any other.
In my opinion, since L51 and Z2103 both come from the same upstream ancestor L23, and since they seem to have split so much later than V88, my hunch is that L23 dispersal was not involved in the same demographic process that separated L388 (eventually M269) from V88. I'd say they probably dispersed from the same region. I think that we don't have enough genetic data to affirm or even speculate with better substantiation what exactly happened. If Z2103, already fully diverged, already existed in the steppes around 4000 BC, then that Z2103/L51 two-direction expansion was certainly before that, firmly in the Neolithic. Then, we should find more R1b-L23 (and ideally L51) in Neolithic Europe as early as 4500-3500 BC. Did scientists find R1b-L23 and R1b-L51 in Western Europe that early?
I also think we should then define what kind of autosomal DNA these males also spread to the regions where they migrated (and supposedly spread IE dialects too). If Z2103 is found in the steppes early together with a mainly EHG/CHG mix, then these R1b-L23 (Z2103 & L51) people probably were associated mainly with CHG ancestry. Do we have proofs of a big increase of CHG in the region of Neolithic Western Europe (circa 4500-3500 BC) that would later become the 1st points for the spread of BB, together with R1b-L51? I don't really know, but I haven't read anything about either.
Besides, this kind of hypothesis would probably assume that Italo-Celtic is related to BB and other IE branches are related to the "steppe" Z2103-majority populations. But that isn't really supported by mainstream linguistics, not at all, because we'd have to assume a very early split of PIE and assume that Italo-Celtic diverged earlier than virtually any other group (including even Tocharian), virtually as early as the estimated date of divergence of the Anatolian branch.
And why would BB, gaining its L51 and supposedly a lot of autosomal ancestry directly from the Near East, have spread their genes and IE languages, but some of the main regions (mainly Ireland and Britain) where we know L51, BB and Celtic languages were spoken since early on are exactly the ones that show more steppe-related ancestry in Western/Central Europe? All that expansion, which started from Iberian, would have left a deep genetic impact only when the BB males found CWC women and mated with them? Would the BB expansion have been mostly irrelevant (in terms of genetic impact) in non-Iberian North/West Europe until they founded a "secondary BB expansion" in CWC/steppe-enriched Central European BB? don't know, in my view there are several inconsistencies in that "BB as Indo-European R1b-L51" hypothesis, though I can't really deny that possibility with the information we have now. I think we just don't know enough.
My main point is that if Z2103 and L51 are both really associated with the spread of PIE-derived languages, then PIE is very ancient and its dispersal is a 5th milennium BC Neolithic phenomenon. And I don't think this expansion would have happened without an important change in the autosomal makeup of the regions where BB seems to have really changed things for ever, especially the British Isles. And there we see a lot of increase of the same kind of EHG + CHG combination that, coincidentally or not, was also typically found in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. If IE languages came with a CWC-admixed Iberian BB with R1b-L51 of Near Eastern, mainly CHG origin, then I think the BA/IA Britons and Irish would necessarily have a lot more CHG than EHG, because the steppe ancestry in CWC was already itself a roughly 50%-50% EHG-CHG mix, and scientists would have already noticed that that Central European BB were not "just" steppe-derived locals, but a mix of EEF/CHG Iberians with CWC.
Okay, I'll admit: I just don't know, this is all pretty confusing to me, but I confess I can't see PIE, L51 or the Bronze Age genetic transformations in Western Europe coming from Iberian-derived Bell Beakers.