R1b-BY611>Z2705: Origins and Expansion

Ownstyler

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I am opening this thread because this R1b-BY611>Z2705 has seen many changes recently and it's place of origin and subsequent expansion growing more and more interesting.

The question I want to discuss is:
Where did the ancestor of all Z2705 live?

For anyone who hasn't followed the recent updates, I should mention that one important change was the discovery of one Albanian sample as negative to Y32147, which split the branch in two. Then a Greek sample joined him as Z2705* on YFull, but today it was noticed by admins of the Albanian and Serbian forums that the Greek sample was negative to BY38894. YFull does not have this SNP so this division does not show there. To sum up, we now have three branches under Z2705, let's call the branch where new the Greek sample belongs Z2705 (this has DYS393=12 & DYS392=11) and the branch where the new Albanian sample belongs BY38894* (this has DYS513=13).

To answer the question, two things need to be addressed:
1- The frequency and diversity of Z2705, and especially Z2705*, which is so far the earliest of several parallel branches to have split off from the rest.
2- The possibility of even earlier splits based on unusual Z2705 or BY611 haplotypes.

To me, it seems that the haplotype which is now Z2705* is more widespread in the western and central part of the Balkans: Albania, Greece, Serbia each have at least one confirmed case each, plus several of these haplotypes have been found in Albania from anonymous studies.

Please keep both political and even historical references out of this thread: this is about genetics only. Thank you!
 
I am opening this thread because this R1b-BY611>Z2705 has seen many changes recently and it's place of origin and subsequent expansion growing more and more interesting.

The question I want to discuss is:
Where did the ancestor of all Z2705 live?

For anyone who hasn't followed the recent updates, I should mention that one important change was the discovery of one Albanian sample as negative to Y32147, which split the branch in two. Then a Greek sample joined him as Z2705* on YFull, but today it was noticed by admins of the Albanian and Serbian forums that the Greek sample was negative to BY38894. YFull does not have this SNP so this division does not show there. To sum up, we now have three branches under Z2705, let's call the branch where new the Greek sample belongs Z2705 (this has DYS393=12 & DYS392=11) and the branch where the new Albanian sample belongs BY38894* (this has DYS513=13).

To answer the question, two things need to be addressed:
1- The frequency and diversity of Z2705, and especially Z2705*, which is so far the earliest of several parallel branches to have split off from the rest.
2- The possibility of even earlier splits based on unusual Z2705 or BY611 haplotypes.

To me, it seems that the haplotype which is now Z2705* is more widespread in the western and central part of the Balkans: Albania, Greece, Serbia each have at least one confirmed case each, plus several of these haplotypes have been found in Albania from anonymous studies.

Please keep both political and even historical references out of this thread: this is about genetics only. Thank you!

The basal node from Z2105* is CTS1450--4900YBP+/-
Do you have any idea where sample GRC14392107 is from? There are 4 more samples tagged with [GRC] prefix code--GRC14392141
GRC14392107
GRC14392141
GRC14392142
GRC14392092
GRC14392093
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-CTS1450/
 
The basal node from Z2105* is CTS1450--4900YBP+/-
Do you have any idea where sample GRC14392107 is from? There are 4 more samples tagged with [GRC] prefix code--GRC14392141
GRC14392107
GRC14392141
GRC14392142
GRC14392092
GRC14392093
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-CTS1450/

I don't know where they are from. I know there was a new R-CTS1450* in the Albanian project, who is negative for all the subbranches except for Y18959, which he wasn't tested for.

Anyway, I don't think the location of R-CTS1450* samples is that relevant to the origin of R-Z2705. We already know, just from the samples we have, that it rose somewhere in the Balkans, and I don't think an ancestor from 2000 years earlier can specify this location further. That's why I was focusing on the branches that have formed between 1000 and 3500 years ago.
 
Well with Z2705 thus far earliest split is dys392=11, and these are relatively equally dispersed among Albanians, Bulgarians, Romanians, Aromanians from Andon Poci, Turks from Macedonia, Greeks, Serbs (just one ?). Bulgarian haplotypes and Romanian from Dolj on low number of STR's seem to show more diversity.

However this Croat 393=12 from Dalmatia I mentioned, he's not from Dalmatia but more northwards. He looks like being possibly R-Y23373* or R-Y32843, but also maybe even BY250. So he might influence the picture. Because of him I thought initially BY611 originated in the Western Balkans, that might have been correct if he's Z2705-.
Also there is one Albanian dys393=12, he was Y33200+ but that doesn't mean much now as Y33200 is not a recent SNP.
 
Well with Z2705 thus far earliest split is dys392=11, and these are relatively equally dispersed among Albanians, Bulgarians, Romanians, Aromanians from Andon Poci, Turks from Macedonia, Greeks, Serbs (just one ?). Bulgarian haplotypes and Romanian from Dolj on low number of STR's seem to show more diversity.

The thing is we can't be sure these haplotypes are BY611, right? I also found a Croatian with a very interesting haplotype DYS393=12 and DYS392=15, and one more with DYS393=13 and DYS392=11, but I'm not sure if they're BY611.

However this Croat 393=12 from Dalmatia I mentioned, he's not from Dalmatia but more northwards. He looks like being possibly R-Y23373* or R-Y32843, but also maybe even BY250. So he might influence the picture. Because of him I thought initially BY611 originated in the Western Balkans, that might have been correct if he's Z2705-.
Also there is one Albanian dys393=12, he was Y33200+ but that doesn't mean much now as Y33200 is not a recent SNP.

There are two in the Albanian DNA project with DYS393=12. Both have DYS392=13. The American under Y-23373 has the same values. It could be that their haplotype precedes the change of DYS393 into 11, or even more likely, it could just be a parallel branch.

And then there is this ser-7 haplotype from Belgrade who has both those and DYS390=23, just like the American. This Serbian was even determined to be Z2705+ I think.

If that Croatian sample also looks that old, maybe the place of the common ancestor might be a little further north than we imagined.
 
Well with Z2705 thus far earliest split is dys392=11, and these are relatively equally dispersed among Albanians, Bulgarians, Romanians, Aromanians from Andon Poci, Turks from Macedonia, Greeks, Serbs (just one ?). Bulgarian haplotypes and Romanian from Dolj on low number of STR's seem to show more diversity.

However this Croat 393=12 from Dalmatia I mentioned, he's not from Dalmatia but more northwards. He looks like being possibly R-Y23373* or R-Y32843, but also maybe even BY250. So he might influence the picture. Because of him I thought initially BY611 originated in the Western Balkans, that might have been correct if he's Z2705-.
Also there is one Albanian dys393=12, he was Y33200+ but that doesn't mean much now as Y33200 is not a recent SNP.
Can you bring all those 393=12 & 392=11 samples here?
 
Deleted because it was at the wrong place. Made a new comment with the same text correctly placed this time.
 
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So I have been doing a lot of research these days and I found some interesting haplotypes, all of them belonging to Z2705 as far as I can tell. I think there is at least one more branch, maybe two, parallel to the 2705* that there is now. I will list them here and set some expectations:............
How likely is it that Albania R1b-Z2705 is related to Croatia/Yamnaya R1b-Z2103 4000YBP+/- ?
LG3nFMNujTx1Vfdm-Region.png


http://homeland.ku.dk/
 
How likely is it that Albania R1b-Z2705 is related to Croatia/Yamnaya R1b-Z2103 4000YBP+/- ?
LG3nFMNujTx1Vfdm-Region.png


http://homeland.ku.dk/

It's possible, but that sample hasn't been proven positive for any of the SNP-s downstream Z2103 (he had no calls due to the quality of the sample). In addition, it's from so long ago that the mutation for BY611 hadn't occurred yet. Maybe the Albanian Bloodlines Project member who is CTS9219+ and BY611- BY250- Y558- could be compared to that Croatian sample. I don't know how to do that though :)
 
So I have been doing a lot of research these days and I found some interesting haplotypes, all of them belonging to Z2705 as far as I can tell. I think there is at least one more branch, maybe two, parallel to the 2705* that there is now. I will list them here and set some expectations:

1) DYS393=12; DYS390=23. These values are the same as the Y23373* on YFull so I expect this to be a very early split. It was found in Serbia (that ser-7 haplotype, which has been analyzed by Brygian on Anthrogenica before as Z2795 I think). But I also found one more haplotype from Bosnia & Hercegovina, Tuzla county. This one only has 8 markers but they are all identical to Y23373* as well as to ser-7. The Bosnian will definitely be somewhere between these two, but even assuming he and ser-7 are both under Z2705, I think they will form a separate line which is found in the north-western part of the Balkans.

2) The haplotypes with DYS393=13 and DYS390=23 could have evolved either from the haplotype above, or from the more common DYS393=13 & DYS390=24 haplotype. I favor the first option because of some peculiar marker values, but also because of its spread: 3 Albanians, 3 Serbian/Montenegrins, 1 Greek, 1 Croatian and one Italian from the North-East of Italy. It looks very much western.

3) The haplotypes DYS393=12, DYS390=24 & DYS392=13. I am guessing this could be a parallel branch of Z2705 too. There is a chance that the DYS393=12 & DYS392=11 line emerged from it, but DYS459 values make me think it might not be so. There are 6 Albanian, one Italian from Sicily, one Macedonian and the Croatian kindly mentioned by Aspurg with this haplotype.

The Croatian might be an ancestor to both all of those with DYS393=12 & DYS390=24, regardless of DYS392.

4) DYS393=12 & DYS392=11. We have already discussed this, I am just listing it here. There are 5 Albanians, 7 Aromanians from Albania, 5 Macedonian Turks, 1-2 Macedonians. I also found a Serbian from Vojvodina and 4 Greeks, two from the region of Western Macedonia, and one person from Sicily whose ethnicity I cannot find.

The Bulgarian and Romanian haplotypes brought by Aspurg lack DYS385 so it's not 100% they belong here, but it's likely at least some do (especially the Romanian because that exact haplotype, with DYS385=11-11) has been found elsewhere.

5) DYS393=13 & DYS392=11. This one might be a branch of the haplotype at 4). I found it in two Albanians, and one Serbian/Montenegrin. I also found these values in some more R1b from Arbereshe of Calabria, Croatia, Bosnia and Macedonia, but some off-modal values make uncertain they are all Z2705.

So to sum up, I believe there are at least three lines under Z2705, one scattered all over the Balkans, one quite north-western, and one just western.
 
It's possible, but that sample hasn't been proven positive for any of the SNP-s downstream Z2103 (he had no calls due to the quality of the sample). In addition, it's from so long ago that the mutation for BY611 hadn't occurred yet. Maybe the Albanian Bloodlines Project member who is CTS9219+ and BY611- BY250- Y558- could be compared to that Croatian sample. I don't know how to do that though :)

My line[BY593] is downstream R1b-CTS9219+
Connecting Albanian CTS9219+ and Mokshe-Mordovian [CTS1450+]=CTS-9219+ @4900YBP+/-
However above CTS-9219+ is maybe a Sweden sample R-Y5592* negative for 9219+ @4900YBP+/-
Any thoughts?
https://www.yfull.com/tree/R-Y5592/
 
I can't say I've studied your line too much but Albanian samples are all concentrated into BY611, at least until now. The only one you might be connected to is the CTS9219 that I mentioned. Your line is more concentrated in central and Eastern Europe.

Overall I would say this is an indoeuropean line, but I'm not sure any further than that. If I had to guess I'd say it's related to the central euroepan cultures that developed into celtic, italic and paleobalkanic. R1b-Z2103 has been found in Hungary, and I think Poland too. If you're actually from Silesia your ancestors might have been there a long time, but again, this is just a guess.
 
Well done Ownstyler on that list!
Where did you get that Tuzla sample from? I know of Tuzla canton study where 100 were sampled (23 STR's).

About dys393=12, dys392=11, a slight correction: all Romanian samples have dys385=11-11. In the Basarab study 2 samples from Dolj lacked the dys385, however this STR was added for these samples in Roma study and expectedly they have 11-11 as well. About Bulgarians, they miss the dys385 but that is because all repeated values on dys385 were missing as well. So they certainly have repeated values, 10-10, 11-11, 12-12, 13-13, 14-14, 15-15. Combining that with the fact that this branch seems certainly well defined by an SNP which represents dys392=13->11 shift, the fact that they are confirmed as L23+ (and not L51, or M269*/PF7562) it is extremely unlikely that they have anything other than dys385=11-11.
Also the Italian dys392=11 is from Trapani, Sicily. I think he is the only non-Balkan dys392=11 (not counting the Romanians).

About the origin, currently looking at diversity of earliest confirmed split (dys392=11) both Western and Eastern theory are on the table. However finding additional Z2705* or even Z2705- samples somewhere in the West would clearly point to the Western Balkans. Such Z2705*/Z2705- candidates exist, so we'll see. In the case of Western origin, BY611's could potentially be connected with the Vučedol sample, in any case this newly found Albanian CTS9219* is also a very good candidate.
 
IMO, to have a much better idea about the more distant origin of R-Z2705, will depend on finding a Balkan sample that splits the R-Z2705 subclade currently defined by the 10 SNPs. That is a split between the American YF06082 and the current TMRCA of R-Z2705 (somewhere between 2700 to 1300 ybp). To me it doesn't look like the Croatian sample that Aspurg brought is one of them (He looks more like R-Z2705* to me). Ser 7 sample should not be one of them either, as he is positive for all PH SNPs at the R-Z2705 level, the other SNPs seem not covered since these samples from Phille Hallast were not very high quality sequences (https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8152). And we know that DYS393=12 and DYS392=11 is also sharing roughly the same TMRCA.

As far as its expansion goes, after the Albanian YF14449 result, I think the western Balkans is favored.
 
Well done Ownstyler on that list!
Where did you get that Tuzla sample from? I know of Tuzla canton study where 100 were sampled (23 STR's).

Thank you! You definitely helped a lot too. The Tuzla sample is from here: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/16182974. It is haplotype 13 there. Btw, do you mind showing me this other Tuzla study? The one I mentioned has n=181, maybe they are two different ones.

About dys393=12, dys392=11, a slight correction: all Romanian samples have dys385=11-11. In the Basarab study 2 samples from Dolj lacked the dys385, however this STR was added for these samples in Roma study and expectedly they have 11-11 as well. About Bulgarians, they miss the dys385 but that is because all repeated values on dys385 were missing as well. So they certainly have repeated values, 10-10, 11-11, 12-12, 13-13, 14-14, 15-15. Combining that with the fact that this branch seems certainly well defined by an SNP which represents dys392=13->11 shift, the fact that they are confirmed as L23+ (and not L51, or M269*/PF7562) it is extremely unlikely that they have anything other than dys385=11-11.

I agree that the Bulgarians are most likely BY611. Not 100% but if I had to bet I'd say at least 2 certainly are, and the other 2 have good chances.

About the origin, currently looking at diversity of earliest confirmed split (dys392=11) both Western and Eastern theory are on the table. However finding additional Z2705* or even Z2705- samples somewhere in the West would clearly point to the Western Balkans. Such Z2705*/Z2705- candidates exist, so we'll see. In the case of Western origin, BY611's could potentially be connected with the Vučedol sample, in any case this newly found Albanian CTS9219* is also a very good candidate.

I agree that both Western or Eastern are possible for Z2705* as it is now on YFull, so with the haplotype DYS393=12 & DYS392=11 as the oldest split from the rest. But do you both agree on the other haplotypes I mentioned? Both DYS392=12 & DYS390=23 and DYS392=12 & DYS390=24 could be either earlier or equally early splits, and they are much more western in their distribution. So I'd say the DYS393=12 & DYS392=11 branch could be Western or Eastern, but Z2705 as a whole looks more western right now. Nothing close to a settled question though, of course.
 
IMO, to have a much better idea about the more distant origin of R-Z2705, will depend on finding a Balkan sample that splits the R-Z2705 subclade currently defined by the 10 SNPs. That is a split between the American YF06082 and the current TMRCA of R-Z2705 (somewhere between 2700 to 1300 ybp). To me it doesn't look like the Croatian sample that Aspurg brought is one of them (He looks more like R-Z2705* to me). Ser 7 sample should not be one of them either, as he is positive for all PH SNPs at the R-Z2705 level, the other SNPs seem not covered since these samples from Phille Hallast were not very high quality sequences (https://www.nature.com/articles/ncomms8152). And we know that DYS393=12 and DYS392=11 is also sharing roughly the same TMRCA.

As far as its expansion goes, after the Albanian YF14449 result, I think the western Balkans is favored.

In addition to DYS393=12 & DYS390=23, I noticed ser 7 has DYS456=13, instead of the modal 15. So it's possible he splits somewhere in between 2700 to 1300 ybp (but definitely lower than R-Y23373, since PH SNPs that he is positive for are part of the R-Z2705 subclade). Hard to say with certainty without NGS testing, or knowing the status of all 10 SNPs that currently define R-Z2705.
 

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