Consumer genomics will change your life, whether you get tested or not

[Jovialis]

Abstract

With more than 10 million genotyped customers, the consumer genomics industry is maturing and becoming a mainstream phenomenon. At last, innovations and applications, some unforeseen, are being brought to the masses.


Introduction

At the start of this year, the direct-to-consumer personal genomics industry surpassed 10 million genotyped consumers [1, 2], a ten-fold increase since our last comment in Genome Biology on the state of consumer genomics [3]. Between the end of 2013 and 2016 there was steady growth in consumer numbers, but after 2016 the sector began to grow exponentially (Fig. 1). Looking forward, we could project another ten-fold increase by 2021, with upwards of 100 million genotyped individuals. It is likely that the growth rate will exceed these projections because of increased advertising spend from market leaders and decreasing genotyping and sequencing costs. In the next few years, more companies will enter the direct-to-consumer (retail) market for genomics. We are a long way from saturation on the S-shaped growth curve, especially with the realization of new market opportunities, which span prediction of medical risks, precise genealogical reconstructions, and even crime solving.

These enormous numbers of genotyped consumers will generate massive returns on scale, allowing for greater innovation and insight. If hundreds of millions of consumers contribute to genetic databases, then the power of genealogical algorithms to infer matches will increase, until the likelihood of matching a relative, if you have close relatives (at least in the United States), will converge upon total certainty [4]. Public databases such as GEDMatch now include data from one million samples, sufficient to predict a 90% chance of finding at least one third-cousin relative. Even with this ‘small’ database, consumers will almost certainly find relatives, and many of them. Genealogy has proved itself to be a sector with an affluent and passionate consumer base, as evidenced by the multibillion dollar valuation of the Ancestry online database thanks to millions of discretionary subscriptions [5].

The huge numbers of genotypes provided by consumers are valuable for genealogy, but as the numbers of genotypes increase into the millions, the data become even more valuable for trait prediction and medical applications. The large sample sizes allow for greater statistical power to detect genome-wide associations, which may be useful in linking genomic markers to functional traits and clinical phenotypes. 23andMe, for example, has amassed a database with sample numbers in the millions with which they are now working to obtain genotype–phenotype associations [6]. The analysis of rare variations becomes immensely powerful when sample sizes approach a hundred million genotypes, and medicine could be truly personalized when such massive information reservoirs are available. We simply do not know what we might be able to do until we hit those sample sizes, as that is still unexplored territory.

https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1

 

[Angela]

Abstract

With more than 10 million genotyped customers, the consumer genomics industry is maturing and becoming a mainstream phenomenon. At last, innovations and applications, some unforeseen, are being brought to the masses.


Introduction

At the start of this year, the direct-to-consumer personal genomics industry surpassed 10 million genotyped consumers [1, 2], a ten-fold increase since our last comment in Genome Biology on the state of consumer genomics [3]. Between the end of 2013 and 2016 there was steady growth in consumer numbers, but after 2016 the sector began to grow exponentially (Fig. 1). Looking forward, we could project another ten-fold increase by 2021, with upwards of 100 million genotyped individuals. It is likely that the growth rate will exceed these projections because of increased advertising spend from market leaders and decreasing genotyping and sequencing costs. In the next few years, more companies will enter the direct-to-consumer (retail) market for genomics. We are a long way from saturation on the S-shaped growth curve, especially with the realization of new market opportunities, which span prediction of medical risks, precise genealogical reconstructions, and even crime solving.

These enormous numbers of genotyped consumers will generate massive returns on scale, allowing for greater innovation and insight. If hundreds of millions of consumers contribute to genetic databases, then the power of genealogical algorithms to infer matches will increase, until the likelihood of matching a relative, if you have close relatives (at least in the United States), will converge upon total certainty [4]. Public databases such as GEDMatch now include data from one million samples, sufficient to predict a 90% chance of finding at least one third-cousin relative. Even with this ‘small’ database, consumers will almost certainly find relatives, and many of them. Genealogy has proved itself to be a sector with an affluent and passionate consumer base, as evidenced by the multibillion dollar valuation of the Ancestry online database thanks to millions of discretionary subscriptions [5].

The huge numbers of genotypes provided by consumers are valuable for genealogy, but as the numbers of genotypes increase into the millions, the data become even more valuable for trait prediction and medical applications. The large sample sizes allow for greater statistical power to detect genome-wide associations, which may be useful in linking genomic markers to functional traits and clinical phenotypes. 23andMe, for example, has amassed a database with sample numbers in the millions with which they are now working to obtain genotype–phenotype associations [6]. The analysis of rare variations becomes immensely powerful when sample sizes approach a hundred million genotypes, and medicine could be truly personalized when such massive information reservoirs are available. We simply do not know what we might be able to do until we hit those sample sizes, as that is still unexplored territory.

https://genomebiology.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13059-018-1506-1

That's all 23andme is really interested in. That's why their customer service is so bad.

Unfortunately, in terms of the consumer, most people don't have a clue how to interpret the results, so I wonder if the number of testees will go down as people complain.