All Iberian men were wiped out by Yamna men 4,500 years ago

An insightful post, in my opinion.

One objection, though : the "wiping out" does seem to have occurred - at least in the geographic pockets where the Reich study under discussion here was conducted. Otherwise I don't think a reputable lab would go so far as to mention it.

This said, I agree that :

- what is referred to as "Yamna" should probably be more cautiously labelled "broadly steppe " (to use 23andMe terminology).

- the influx of R1b into Iberia occurred in distinct stages. Lusitanian was a Kw- language (Iccona [ikwona], the horse goddess, later Epona in Gaulish ; also Equeunubo - dual number -, the horse-riding twin gods). Celtiberian was an "in-between" language, with Gw > b, an early proto-Celtic shift, (boustom, from *gwousth2o, cow shed), but Kw = Kw (ekualaku [ekwalakwe], horses +'element unknown' + kwe)

I would agree the later waves were densely admixed when they finally got to Iberia, but depending on the study, the first migrants were pretty much steppe-like. It probably didn't take 70 generations for them to come from the steppe, even accounting for a stop in central Europe. Or if it did, they must have retained a high degree of endogamy. R1b penetration into Bell Beaker territory seems to have been quick-paced. They were probably few in numbers, though, hence the tenuous autosomal impact. I am not sure the earliest settlers were even DF27 yet. Time will tell.

Almost all historical linguists see the spread of Celtic as originating in the Hallstatt culture, which was much later. As for Lusitanian - it's a bit of a mystery, but most that have an opinion see it as being Italic. Moreover, there is no evidence of IE languages in Britain before the Celts.

I repeat my previous claim - Indo-European languages in Western Europe are EXCLUSIVE to two ultimate sources - U152 and U106. These are the ONLY L51 subclades to have developed in Central Europe - right in Corded Ware territory (and this is not a coincidence, as I would be willing to bet that Corded Ware is ultimately the vector to which Western IE spread from). This is also consistent with a non-IE origin of L51. By no means conclusive, but it makes sense (as to why IE hadn't spread out of Central Europe even while Bell Beaker folk had invaded all of Western Europe and were participating in the Atlantic Bronze Age).
 
Very broadly, I suspect formative surviving L51 was culturally (i) western end Khvalynsk, (ii) Suvorovo, (iii) co-opted into Cucuteni (in the EHG people who collaborated with it, rather than the ones who destroyed it); and that, on Cucuteni's collapse, it moved westwards and settled fully formed in Southern Germany and Northern France (RRBP zone) in perhaps a 50:50 mixed population with Eastern EEF people (principally G-PF3345). I suspect L51 only rose to paternal prominence within this population when one of its families (from within a branch of L151) took control of it and its neighbours at a time of conflict.

I agree that other lines of L51 and close relations to it would probably have spread into Yamnayan Ukraine, Bulgaria, West Asia and perhaps further afield, but my estimation is that the branch that thrives today most likely developed as above.

Would you not expect the presence of early L51 to be mainly around the Black Sea if that were the case? Instead, it is around the French and Italian Rivieras (including areas like Sardinia), which is completely against what you have said.

Also, just looking on Wikipedia, I see this (about Cucuteni):

Members of the Cucuteni–Trypillia culture shared common features with other Neolithic societies, including:



As compared to this about Los Millares, my candidate L51 culture:

Los Millares participated in the continental trends of Megalithism and the Beaker culture. Analysis of occupation material and grave goods from the Los Millares cemetery of 70 tholos tombs with port-hole slabs has led archaeologists to suggest that the people who lived at Los Millares were part of a stratified, unequal society which was often at war with its neighbours.

Just from a very primitive look, this Cucuteni hypothesis doesn't make much sense, as I'm sure you would also work on the assumption that L51 was an elite lineage (and I go as far as to say they imposed themselves in caste systems wherever they went). Also, your link of RRBP to the Paris-basin admixture is interesting, but I think overly specific (I doubt the aDNA can be used to that level of precision). But besides, we would expect admixture like that in "my" hypothesis too.
 
Try to understand the admixture run you're basing your speculations on. ATP3 likely has no EHG. Not even the authors and the usual amateurs who manage to tease out EHG components almost every time managed to find an EHG signal.

If it is indeed M269, I would expect some trace of EHG, but considerably more WHG - this is from using Iron Gates as a proxy for the original M269 Balkan folk (who were over 3/4 WHG and under 1/4 EHG). Obviously, ATP3 has additional farmer admixture that makes up most of its genome.
 
Also, the more I think about it, the more I've come to the conclusion that IE is actually a native Steppe language, unrelated to R1b L23. Yes, I've gone full R1a-tard. The very early expansion of the Suvorovo-Novodanilovka culture from the Steppe is consistent with an origin of Anatolian - rather than an Armenian origin of Anatolian. I still place the origin of Z2103 South of the Caucasus, though - I just see it as originally non-IE. All IE seems clearly related to the Steppe (only Anatolian is debatable), and based on the phylogeny and other circumstantial evidence (such as the Atlantic Bronze Age being L51 but not IE, and a large chunk of West Asian Z2103 seeming native and non-Steppe in origin) it appears L23 and its two daughters Z2103 and L51 did not originate there.
 
If it is indeed M269, I would expect some trace of EHG, but considerably more WHG - this is from using Iron Gates as a proxy for the original M269 Balkan folk (who were over 3/4 WHG and under 1/4 EHG). Obviously, ATP3 has additional farmer admixture that makes up most of its genome.

That's definitely possible considering how low the coverage of the ATP3 sample is. But I think we can say with some certainty that EHG was not a *major* component in ATP3. That's why I think Pip's Baltic origin hypothesis is rather weak.
 
That's definitely possible considering how low the coverage of the ATP3 sample is. But I think we can say with some certainty that EHG was not a *major* component in ATP3. That's why I think Pip's Baltic origin hypothesis is rather weak.

Yup, agreed. What do you think about my immediately previous post?
 
Yup, agreed. What do you think about my immediately previous post?

As an alternative to a Yamnaya migration of L51 I think I'm more or less in agreement, though I'm agnostic about the specific cultures associated with the spread of L51. I think what we can deduce from the little data we have is:

1. early presence of L51 in the Mediterranean due to the distribution of basal haplogrups

2. likely epicenter of phylogenetic diversity in or near France, suggesting that Western Europe was an important point for the early expansions of L51

3. considering the TMRCA of L51, its diversification must have taken place in the copper age - this I consider to be the most important evidence against an origin in Yamnaya

4. if ATP3 is representative of the population that spread L51, its more immediate origin was probably in the Aegean or the Balkans

I'd also say that the linguistic evidence suggests that the L51 population either lost its Indo-European speech upon entering mainland Europe or was non-IE from the get-go. I don't know which one is more likely. Western Europe, Ireland, Britain and maybe even large parts of Germany and the Alpine region IMHO might have been non-IE speaking until the strongly expansive and hierarchical cultures of the later Bronze Age and the Iron age changed the linguistic picture, which explains the lack of any deeply diverged IE language in Central and Western Europe.

The linguistic argument is only tangetially related to the alternative hypothesis of course: some or all L51 Yamnaya men could have lost their IE languages due to female influence already in the Carpathian basin if we suppose that L51's origin was in the steppe.
 
As an alternative to a Yamnaya migration of L51 I think I'm more or less in agreement, though I'm agnostic about the specific cultures associated with the spread of L51. I think what we can deduce from the little data we have is:

1. early presence of L51 in the Mediterranean due to the distribution of basal haplogrups

2. likely epicenter of phylogenetic diversity in or near France, suggesting that Western Europe was an important point for the early expansions of L51

3. considering the TMRCA of L51, its diversification must have taken place in the copper age - this I consider to be the most important evidence against an origin in Yamnaya

4. if ATP3 is representative of the population that spread L51, its more immediate origin was probably in the Aegean or the Balkans

I'd also say that the linguistic evidence suggests that the L51 population either lost its Indo-European speech upon entering mainland Europe or was non-IE from the get-go. I don't know which one is more likely. Western Europe, Ireland, Britain and maybe even large parts of Germany and the Alpine region IMHO might have been non-IE speaking until the strongly expansive and hierarchical cultures of the later Bronze Age and the Iron age changed the linguistic picture, which explains the lack of any deeply diverged IE language in Central and Western Europe.

The linguistic argument is only tangetially related to the alternative hypothesis of course: some or all L51 Yamnaya men could have lost their IE languages due to female influence already in the Carpathian basin if we suppose that L51's origin was in the steppe.

I would like to just say that I actually think Yamnaya was mostly R1a - but the elites we have found are Z2103, giving a false impression. This explains the lack of Z2103 in the region today in a much more suitable way than some replacement migration from the North by R1a folk. L23 was, imo at least, an elite metallurgical lineage wherever it went. I also think that, ATP3 or not, the origin of the population that spread L51 was West Asian L23 in origin (and Balkan M269 before that, and perhaps retaining more of this original HG ancestry due to its elite status).
 
I would like to just say that I actually think Yamnaya was mostly R1a - but the elites we have found are Z2103, giving a false impression. This explains the lack of Z2103 in the region today in a much more suitable way than some replacement migration from the North by R1a folk. L23 was, imo at least, an elite metallurgical lineage wherever it went. I also think that, ATP3 or not, the origin of the population that spread L51 was West Asian L23 in origin (and Balkan M269 before that, and perhaps retaining more of this original HG ancestry due to its elite status).

I think obtaining a representative sample from Carpathian Yamnaya should be quite easy considering how many Kurgans there are. Sooner or later we'll know exactly which haplogroups expanded with it.

I don't want to speculate about West Asia too much because it makes people freak out. I will say that unfortunately the most interesting regions in this regard haven't been sampled: the Syro-Anatolian plains and the highlands north of historical Israel, the Taurus, all of Mesopotamia and the Gulf coast.
 
I think obtaining a representative sample from Carpathian Yamnaya should be quite easy considering how many Kurgans there are. Sooner or later we'll know exactly which haplogroups expanded with it.

I don't want to speculate about West Asia too much because it makes people freak out. I will say that unfortunately the most interesting regions in this regard haven't been sampled: the Syro-Anatolian plains and the highlands north of the Levant, the Taurus, all of Mesopotamia and the Gulf coast.

And with the Syrian civil war, one of the most important regions seems a no-go for quite a while. I'm very confident on a (Highland) West Asian origin of L23 though, and if people have this Reich fetish, then they should agree with this too, as that's what he's indicated (but he thinks that L51 and Z2103 both developed on the Steppe, which I do not). Again, I just want to say, almost all of this theory was pioneered by Tomenable, but I don't know if he still believes in it.

Also, I don't think Kurgans help in terms of identifying which Y DNA the bulk of the population belonged to, as kurgans are clearly of the elite.
 
I would like to just say that I actually think Yamnaya was mostly R1a - but the elites we have found are Z2103, giving a false impression. This explains the lack of Z2103 in the region today in a much more suitable way than some replacement migration from the North by R1a folk. L23 was, imo at least, an elite metallurgical lineage wherever it went. I also think that, ATP3 or not, the origin of the population that spread L51 was West Asian L23 in origin (and Balkan M269 before that, and perhaps retaining more of this original HG ancestry due to its elite status).

Not sure to get your point, R1b and R1a are in the terriotry of Yamnaya between 9000-7000BCE ( Mesolithic Ukraine ) and we dont have a lot, if any R1a related to Yamnaya, so what's your conclusion? For the L23 coming from Middle-East / West Asia, by what road? with what lineages? All mtdna in Yamnaya are found in Neolithic Europe and/or Neolithic South Caucasus. And with what ancestry? Yamnaya doesn't have any ENA, neither Levante_Neolithic. They have CHG that some people try to labeled Iran_Neolithic, surely to fit a concensus hypothesis. The only pre-neolithic link with the actual samples that i can see. Iron_Gates HG and Proto-Lepenski Vir already had mtdna H13. Kotias Klde was H13c. R1b-V88 is found in Africa and Levante, wich means they came into Africa likely from the Middle-East and not from Sardinia??? or Spain. Already here, we can see pre-neolithic relationship between Balkans and Middle-East. But there is absolutely no datas, a part the CHG component, that the putative ancestors of Yamnaya came from the Middle-East. The Maikop paper already clearly shows that. So are you seeing R1a as the original Yamnaya lineage because it's an Ashkenazi modern lineage or have you a real idea behind this supposition?
 
Not sure to get your point, R1b and R1a are in the terriotry of Yamnaya between 9000-7000BCE ( Mesolithic Ukraine ) and we dont have a lot, if any R1a related to Yamnaya, so what's your conclusion? For the L23 coming from Middle-East / West Asia, by what road? with what lineages? All mtdna in Yamnaya are found in Neolithic Europe and/or Neolithic South Caucasus. And with what ancestry? Yamnaya doesn't have any ENA, neither Levante_Neolithic. They have CHG that some people try to labeled Iran_Neolithic, surely to fit a concensus hypothesis. The only pre-neolithic link with the actual samples that i can see. Iron_Gates HG and Proto-Lepenski Vir already had mtdna H13. Kotias Klde was H13c. R1b-V88 is found in Africa and Levante, wich means they came into Africa likely from the Middle-East and not from Sardinia??? or Spain. Already here, we can see pre-neolithic relationship between Balkans and Middle-East. But there is absolutely no datas, a part the CHG component, that the putative ancestors of Yamnaya came from the Middle-East. The Maikop paper already clearly shows that. So are you seeing R1a as the original Yamnaya lineage because it's an Ashkenazi modern lineage or have you a real idea behind this supposition?

You're an idiot and I pay no attention to you, I read the last sentence and just laughed. Also, you don't understand phylogeny.
 
I think obtaining a representative sample from Carpathian Yamnaya should be quite easy considering how many Kurgans there are. Sooner or later we'll know exactly which haplogroups expanded with it.

I don't want to speculate about West Asia too much because it makes people freak out. I will say that unfortunately the most interesting regions in this regard haven't been sampled: the Syro-Anatolian plains and the highlands north of historical Israel, the Taurus, all of Mesopotamia and the Gulf coast.

On a separate note, reply to my message lol - I want to know what you think
 
I think obtaining a representative sample from Carpathian Yamnaya should be quite easy considering how many Kurgans there are. Sooner or later we'll know exactly which haplogroups expanded with it.

I don't want to speculate about West Asia too much because it makes people freak out. I will say that unfortunately the most interesting regions in this regard haven't been sampled: the Syro-Anatolian plains and the highlands north of historical Israel, the Taurus, all of Mesopotamia and the Gulf coast.

We do have some Eastern European mtDNA dating back to the Chalcolithic (so basically impossible to be Yamnaya) in those regions.
 
Try to understand the admixture run you're basing your speculations on. ATP3 likely has no EHG. Not even the authors and the usual amateurs who manage to tease out EHG components almost every time managed to find an EHG signal.
The admixture run I have seen for ATP3 has significant EHG (the type found at its greatest concentrations in Khyvalynsk), and no WHG (the type found at its greatest concentrations in Mesolithic Europe).
 
What is actually ATP3?
 
Would you not expect the presence of early L51 to be mainly around the Black Sea if that were the case? Instead, it is around the French and Italian Rivieras (including areas like Sardinia), which is completely against what you have said.

Also, just looking on Wikipedia, I see this (about Cucuteni):

Members of the Cucuteni–Trypillia culture shared common features with other Neolithic societies, including:



As compared to this about Los Millares, my candidate L51 culture:

Los Millares participated in the continental trends of Megalithism and the Beaker culture. Analysis of occupation material and grave goods from the Los Millares cemetery of 70 tholos tombs with port-hole slabs has led archaeologists to suggest that the people who lived at Los Millares were part of a stratified, unequal society which was often at war with its neighbours.

Just from a very primitive look, this Cucuteni hypothesis doesn't make much sense, as I'm sure you would also work on the assumption that L51 was an elite lineage (and I go as far as to say they imposed themselves in caste systems wherever they went). Also, your link of RRBP to the Paris-basin admixture is interesting, but I think overly specific (I doubt the aDNA can be used to that level of precision). But besides, we would expect admixture like that in "my" hypothesis too.
I'm not aware that we have any early (5th millennium or even 4th millennium BC) L51.

L51 is only one of 5 L51-equivalent SNPs, and so most likely formed over 500 years (20 generations) or so. Its origin zone could have encompassed a very wide area, including both the Black Sea and the Western Mediterranean.

For Cucuteni to have survived and prospered as it did, it would probably have needed people to protect it - perhaps that is where L51 came in? We know that Cucuteni Tripolye adopted more Steppe culture traits over time, so must have had exposure to people from such culture. L51 might have been a separate group connected to Cucuteni that only properly assimilated into core Cucuteni populations as they were destroyed and their remnants fled westwards.

I don't make any assumptions about languages or elite lineages. My link to Cucuteni and RRBP is simply based on analysis of data - the best fit for R1b Bell Beaker mtDNA came out as approximately 50% Cucuteni Tripolye, 20% Yamnaya, 15% RRBP. And the closest fit to L51 expansions came out as G-PF3345 expansions.
 
If it is indeed M269, I would expect some trace of EHG, but considerably more WHG - this is from using Iron Gates as a proxy for the original M269 Balkan folk (who were over 3/4 WHG and under 1/4 EHG). Obviously, ATP3 has additional farmer admixture that makes up most of its genome.
That is why I speculate whether he might have been a recent migrant from a North Eastern branch of M269 (Eastern Baltic).
 
That's definitely possible considering how low the coverage of the ATP3 sample is. But I think we can say with some certainty that EHG was not a *major* component in ATP3. That's why I think Pip's Baltic origin hypothesis is rather weak.
Yes, EHG was a significant, rather than the major, component. The most striking aspect is its absence of WHG, which is probably a factor of its low coverage, but nonetheless I would say is indicative of a recent arrival from somewhere outside of the western and central core of Europe.
 

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