The year 536 and the fall of the Roman Empire

Angela

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Anne Gibbons: Why 536 was the worst year to be alive
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/11/why-536-was-worst-year-be-alive

It's actually more about why the Roman Empire didn't reconstitute itself, as it had before, under the leadership of the Eastern Roman Empire.

Razib Khan has also opined.
A major consequence of the calamities of the mid-6th century is the reconquest of the West Roman Empire under the push from Justinian and his heirs lost steam. Unlike in China, the Roman system was never recreated in full. Many explanations have to do with the violence of the Gothic Wars, or the inability of East Roman power to expand west while dealing with a more vigorous Persia to the east. We can’t rerun the experiment, but the above volcanic eruptions suggest that the likelihood of total reconquest took a major hit because of an event that was not inevitable.
Remember that the Roman state recovered by near total unwinding in the middle of the 3rd century.

"Historians have long known that the middle of the sixth century was a dark hour in what used to be called the Dark Ages, but the source of the mysterious clouds has long been a puzzle. Now, an ultraprecise analysis of ice from a Swiss glacier by a team led by McCormick and glaciologist Paul Mayewski at the Climate Change Institute of The University of Maine (UM) in Orono has fingered a culprit. At a workshop at Harvard this week, the team reported that a cataclysmic volcanic eruption in Iceland spewed ash across the Northern Hemisphere early in 536. Two other massive eruptions followed, in 540 and 547. The repeated blows, followed by plague, plunged Europe into economic stagnation that lasted until 640, when another signal in the ice—a spike in airborne lead—marks a resurgence of silver mining, as the team reports in Antiquity this week."

"A mysterious fog plunged Europe, the Middle East, and parts of Asia into darkness, day and night—for 18 months. "For the sun gave forth its light without brightness, like the moon, during the whole year," wrote Byzantine historian Procopius. Temperatures in the summer of 536 fell 1.5°C to 2.5°C, initiating the coldest decade in the past 2300 years. Snow fell that summer in China; crops failed; people starved. The Irish chronicles record "a failure of bread from the years 536–539." Then, in 541, bubonic plague struck the Roman port of Pelusium, in Egypt. What came to be called the Plague of Justinian spread rapidly, wiping out one-third to one-half of the population of the eastern Roman Empire and hastening its collapse, McCormick says."

"Still later, the ice is a window into another dark period. Lead vanished from the air during the Black Death from 1349 to 1353, revealing an economy that had again ground to a halt. "We've entered a new era with this ability to integrate ultra–high-resolution environmental records with similarly high resolution historical records," Loveluck says. "It's a real game changer.""

As Khan points out, people weakened by malnutrition more easily fall prey to disease. Also, I think bad weather on the steppe probably leads to the migration of people to Europe and the Near East suffering from it.


"A major consequence of the calamities of the mid-6th century is the reconquest of the West Roman Empire under the push from Justinian and his heirs lost steam. Unlike in China, the Roman system was never recreated in full. Many explanations have to do with the violence of the Gothic Wars, or the inability of East Roman power to expand west while dealing with a more vigorous Persia to the east. We can’t rerun the experiment, but the above volcanic eruptions suggest that the likelihood of total reconquest took a major hit because of an event that was not inevitable.Remember that the Roman state recovered by near total unwinding in the middle of the 3rd century."

The book by Kyle Harper, "The Fate of Rome" mentioned both in the paper and by Khan is quite excellent.
 
it is nice to have a record that can be dated that precisely
but I wouldn't speculate to much about the effects of vulcano eruptions
I remember 10 years ago the speculations about the Toba tephra 74 ka and the Archiflgreo tephra 39,3 ka
they overestimated the devastating effects such eruptions could have on very large territories like whole continents
the Jwalapuram excavations proved humans didn't get wiped out by Toba
and the Neanderthals, we don't know any more what exactly drove them to extinction, it was probably not as sudden as speculated then
 
it is nice to have a record that can be dated that precisely
but I wouldn't speculate to much about the effects of vulcano eruptions
I remember 10 years ago the speculations about the Toba tephra 74 ka and the Archiflgreo tephra 39,3 ka
they overestimated the devastating effects such eruptions could have on very large territories like whole continents
the Jwalapuram excavations proved humans didn't get wiped out by Toba
and the Neanderthals, we don't know any more what exactly drove them to extinction, it was probably not as sudden as speculated then

They're not proposing any wipe out of human beings, and actually point out that a random series of factors, including the occurrence of three massive eruptions so close in time, and a direction of the winds calculated to do the most damage combined to create these kinds of effects.

I think this is only the last in a series of papers by scientists and historians all over the world to show that climate and disease played a huge role in the original "fall" of Rome, and also the failure to reconstitute it. Cultures under stress can be done in by climate change leading to crop failures combined with epidemics. We see examples throughout history and pre-history and all over the world. This was no different.
 
Another interesting line of evidence when it comes to disease is the differential distributions of CCR5-Delta32; I don't know if this has already been mentioned. This allele confers resistance to smallpox and the plague:

image


It's probably an understatement to speak of a hastening of the decline as a result of the Justinian plague when there was a population reduction of 30-50% while barbarians within or without the changing borders of the empire were less affected due to a higher genetic resistance.

The Pyrrhic victories in the Gothic wars must have been very costly after that.
 
Watched a program last night about this, and the reasons the empire fell.

The research found significant weather/climate change a possible trigger. Their research found through tree ring growth, that the years AD 535,536 to 541, were especially growth restricted, indicating a very harsh climate, around Europe during those years, resulting in crop failure, reduced food production, and subsequent people movements/raiding etc, as a direct consequence.
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Incidently, a ploughed out Anglo-Saxon cemetary, less than a mile from where I live, was excavated a few years ago, and from what remains were found, it contained mostly women, and children, who had died around this very period (mid 6th century ).

It was also evidenced from artifacts etc, that the archaeologists believed that the size of the cemetary originally contained around 120 bodies, and that some of these people were first generation incomers from Scandinavia.

A severe climate may well be a reason why these incomers came,South,and West, to settle in Eastern Britain, because of the severity of the climate further North, in their homelands.

It was an early Anglian Cemetary. The Angles certainly had cultural and family connections with these Northern areas, such as Uppsala/Sweden, and the coastal regions of the South and West of Norway, during and after these periods, as artifacts/gravegoods from many Anglian burials actually show and confirm these large movements of people's from the colder North areas,to the warmer South.

No doubt these movements/migrations became unstoppable, and created chaos throughout Europe, preventing any return/survival of a Roman type Empire in the West,not least for the next few hundred years, of the 'Dark Ages'.
 
They're not proposing any wipe out of human beings, and actually point out that a random series of factors, including the occurrence of three massive eruptions so close in time, and a direction of the winds calculated to do the most damage combined to create these kinds of effects.

I think this is only the last in a series of papers by scientists and historians all over the world to show that climate and disease played a huge role in the original "fall" of Rome, and also the failure to reconstitute it. Cultures under stress can be done in by climate change leading to crop failures combined with epidemics. We see examples throughout history and pre-history and all over the world. This was no different.

I read also about the Gothic Wars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gothic_War_(535–554)
I wonder in how far both the Byzantines and the Goths hadn't exhausted themselves in this war.
Afaik the Longobards also were on the edge of starvation when they entered Italy.

When I consider all the plague must have had the largest impact.
The Byzantines should have been in a better position to recover from war and hunger than the divided Germanic tribes.
 
I read also about the Gothic Wars.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gothic_War_(535–554)
I wonder in how far both the Byzantines and the Goths hadn't exhausted themselves in this war.
Afaik the Longobards also were on the edge of starvation when they entered Italy.
When I consider all the plague must have had the largest impact.
The Byzantines should have been in a better position to recover from war and hunger than the divided Germanic tribes.

The Goths certainly didn't last long as rulers, but the biggest loser in the Byzantine-Goth War was Italy. In fact, the speculation always was that there was so much loss of life that the Langobards would wind up having a huge impact at least on northern and central Italian genetics. We'll need to see that ancient dna, but if they were predominantly U-106 and I1, it seems not.

Indeed, the recent papers on the Langobards showed that they were in poor shape right before entering Italy, not only battle scarred but malnourished, especially the women and children. That was the case even in Hungary.

The author is right: it was a terrible time to be alive. It must have seemed as if they were about to experience the Apocalypse.

"Revelation 6:2[FONT=&quot]: “I looked, and there before me was a white horse! Its rider held a bow, and he was given a crown, and he rode out as a conqueror bent on conquest.” This first horseman likely refers to the Antichrist, who will be given authority and will conquer all who oppose him. The antichrist is the false imitator of the true Christ, who will also return on a white horse ([/FONT]Revelation 19:11-16[FONT=&quot]).[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The second horseman of the Apocalypse appears in [/FONT]Revelation 6:4[FONT=&quot], “Then another horse came out, a fiery red one. Its rider was given power to take peace from the earth and to make men slay each other. To him was given a large sword.” The second horseman refers to terrible warfare that will break out in the end times.

The third horseman is described in [/FONT]
Revelation 6:5-6[FONT=&quot], “...and there before me was a black horse! Its rider was holding a pair of scales in his hand. Then I heard what sounded like a voice among the four living creatures, saying, ‘A quart of wheat for a day's wages, and three quarts of barley for a day's wages, and do not damage the oil and the wine!’” The third horseman of the Apocalypse refers to a great famine that will take place, likely as a result of the wars from the second horseman.[/FONT]

[FONT=&quot]The fourth horseman is mentioned in [/FONT]Revelation 6:8[FONT=&quot], “I looked, and there before me was a pale horse! Its rider was named Death, and Hades was following close behind him. They were given power over a fourth of the earth to kill by sword, famine and plague, and by the wild beasts of the earth.” The fourth horseman of the Apocalypse is symbolic of death and devastation. It seems to be a combination of the previous horsemen. The fourth horseman of the Apocalypse will bring further warfare and terrible famines along with awful plagues and diseases."

Wonderful language before modern translations mucked it up.[/FONT]
 
I don't think a volcano or two can do this much damage to the population of Europe. It was more like an addition to already a perfect storm of cooling climate and crops failure.
 
It wasn't just the year 536 when it was awful to be alive. I've become a fan of the Netflix series "The Last Kingdom" about the struggle of King Alfred of the Anglo-Saxons against the Danes and other Northmen.

It was hundreds of years of terrible weather, near starvation, raids, pillage, slavery, and rape, punctuated by outright warfare, and, for that matter, rank superstition and universal illiteracy. What a terrible, terrible time to be alive.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Last_Kingdom_(TV_series)
 

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