Was Neolithic Europe the source of the plague?

[bicicleur 2]

Davidski made an interesting little point. Could be the plague be linked somehow with the Burning House Horizon? I know people like to see some kind of spiritual reason behind this practice, but maybe it was way more " practical "? Like someone having hard itching start to burn his own clothes and bed trying it gonna stop, maybe those people believed that burning everything material gonna kill the sickness. But at the same level, why wouldn't they kill animals and humans too?

the burning house horizon is a rather vague concept
acording to wikipedia it would have started ca 8.5 ka, i.e. as soon as farmers entered Europe

 

[Johane Derite]

It definitely looks like there were Chalcolithic & Bronze Age movements between Anatolia and Bulgaria/Romania associated with megarons and the spread of Ezero ceramics. However, as Lazaridis' SE-European paper has shown, these migrations likely weren't associated with steppe aDNA as was previously believed. My guess is that those findings were what initially led Reich, Lazaridis & colleagues to look into other hypotheses regarding PIE.

So Minoans could be IE also?

 

[Johane Derite]

Farmer society in Europe were in collapse because of the plague. That's probably the main reason why Indo-Europeans from the steppe were able to conquer and replace them. If there were no plague and population collapse in Anatolia it would be much harder to conquer or replace them.

But you said "This also makes it more unlikely that Indo-Europeans invaded Anatolia from Balkans too."

So if they are already in the balkans cause of it being emptied out, why couldnt they continue into anatolia? Im guessing it was a typo

 

[Pip]

the burning house horizon is a rather vague concept
acording to wikipedia it would have started ca 8.5 ka, i.e. as soon as farmers entered Europe

Yes, but it appears to have been limited to the Eastern Balkans, and discontinued when Neolithic farmers spread out into other parts of Europe. Perhaps it was a hygiene tradition that conferred an advantage (when plague arrived) on the Neolithic populations that persisted with it?

 

[Angela]

one more thing : early Y Pestis didn't have the mutation to be transmitted by fleas.
I think Y Pestis couldn't be travelling in dead furs.

Interesting. Did you find that in this paper? I must have missed it. So how was it transmitted?

Its associated disease, pseudotuberculosis, was transmitted in this way:
"Pseudotuberculosis, caused by Yersinia pseudotuberculosis, is a zoonosis which can be transmitted to man through skin contact with infected animals, contaminated water, or by the consumption of contaminated food or vegetables."
https://www.immunology.org/public-information/bitesized-immunology/pathogens-and-disease/pseudotuberculosis

Hold on, Willerslev and company are saying that it could have been pneumonic plague, i.e. just coughing or sneezing could have spread it. I thought that was the most advanced mutation of the disease?

"Although we do not have experimental evidence of the pathogenicity of early Y. pestis, its

---

in the bloodstream at death. This most likely indicates that it was deadly.At the genomic level, these strains contain the plasminogen activator gene that is sufficient to cause pneumonic plague—thedeadliest form of historic and modern plague."

Is that enough to say it WAS pneumonic plague? I'm not a specialist in plague or even a biologist so I don't know how to evaluate this.

How do humans first get pneumonic plague from an animal, though? It seems the poor kitty may be implicated, so they better check for cat remains from now on.
"The pneumonic form may occur following an initial bubonic or septicemic plague infection.^[3] It may also result from breathing in airborne droplets from another person or cat infected with pneumonic plague.<sup>[1]"

"Pneumonic plague can be caused in two ways: primary, which results from the inhalation of aerosolised plague bacteria, or secondary, when septicaemic plague spreads into lung tissue from the bloodstream. Pneumonic plague is not exclusively vector-borne like bubonic plague; instead it can be spread from person to person. There have been cases of pneumonic plague resulting from the dissection or handling of contaminated animal tissue. "
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pneumonic_plagueSo, handling dead animals, like Ebola and other such diseases.</sup>

Septicemic plague is caused by flea bites. Bubonic plague as well. I guess all three types can also be spread by handling infected animals.

The question is, are they right that this early Y pestis was of the most deadly kind.

I missed that part re TBC in African HG. Can you point it for me?

It was in the science paper upthread to which I posted a link:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095461110600401X

"Gutierrez and her colleagues concluded that an early progenitor of M. tuberculosis was present in East Africa as early as 3 million years ago, and they suggest that it may have infected early hominids at that time.2 It is likely, however, that all modern members of the M. tuberculosis complex, including not only M. tuberculosis but its African variants Mycobacterium africanum and Mycobacterium canettii as well as Mycobacterium bovis, had a common African ancestor about 35,000–15,000 years ago.2, 3, 4 Modern strains of M. tuberculosis appear to have originated from a common ancestor about 20,000–15,000 years ago.5

"While the earliest evidence of pre-Columbian tuberculosis in America comes from the Andean Region, there is abundant archeological evidence that the disease occurred throughout the hemisphere prior to the arrival of the first European explorers.18, 22"

So, the Americas seem to have been re-infected with it.

 

[Angela]

Originally Posted by halfalp
Davidski made an interesting little point. Could be the plague be linked somehow with the Burning House Horizon? I know people like to see some kind of spiritual reason behind this practice, but maybe it was way more " practical "? Like someone having hard itching start to burn his own clothes and bed trying it gonna stop, maybe those people believed that burning everything material gonna kill the sickness. But at the same level, why wouldn't they kill animals and humans too?

Wow, really?

He's late to the party. We discussed this back in 2014-2016, and earlier this week again.

@Johane Derite,

But you said "This also makes it more unlikely that Indo-Europeans invaded Anatolia from Balkans too."

So if they are already in the balkans cause of it being emptied out, why couldnt they continue into anatolia? Im guessing it was a typo

I don't know what was in his mind. To me, the point is that we find some steppe in the Balkans at that time, but none in Anatolia, also a thriving "farmer" area. So, maybe plague didn't nicely lower the native population there, and so they were repulsed, or, perhaps they did take the Balkan route, but given how vastly outnumbered they were, little genetic trace remains.

 

[Cpluskx]

@Johane Derite
What Angela said.
--
By the way i found an old paper which talks about anthropological history of Anatolia. You might want to take a look at this part:
https://ibb.co/tZgqvdM

 

[Olympus Mons]

@Johane Derite
What Angela said.
--
By the way i found an old paper which talks about anthropological history of Anatolia. You might want to take a look at this part:
https://ibb.co/tZgqvdM

When Cranial analisys was dropped we lost a source of data that seems valuable. Does anyone knows why that happened?

 

[markod]

When Cranial analisys was dropped we lost a source of data that seems valuable. Does anyone knows why that happened?

I think the association with eugenics, scientific racism and such made post-WWII researchers drop physical anthropology in favor of a 'pots not people' heuristic.

 

[bicicleur 2]

Interesting. Did you find that in this paper? I must have missed it. So how was it transmitted?

Angela, it is not in this paper, it is in one of the 2 former papers.
And you mentioned it yourself at the time.
The early bronze age Y Pestis variants didn't have the mutation to survive in fleas.
You must have forgotten about it.

 

[Olympus Mons]

I think the association with eugenics, scientific racism and such made post-WWII researchers drop physical anthropology in favor of a 'pots not people' heuristic.

Tks. makes sense. It's a pity.

 

[bicicleur 2]

It was in the science paper upthread to which I posted a link:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S095461110600401X

"Gutierrez and her colleagues concluded that an early progenitor of M. tuberculosis was present in East Africa as early as 3 million years ago, and they suggest that it may have infected early hominids at that time.2 It is likely, however, that all modern members of the M. tuberculosis complex, including not only M. tuberculosis but its African variants Mycobacterium africanum and Mycobacterium canettii as well as Mycobacterium bovis, had a common African ancestor about 35,000–15,000 years ago.2, 3, 4 Modern strains of M. tuberculosis appear to have originated from a common ancestor about 20,000–15,000 years ago.5

"While the earliest evidence of pre-Columbian tuberculosis in America comes from the Andean Region, there is abundant archeological evidence that the disease occurred throughout the hemisphere prior to the arrival of the first European explorers.18, 22"

So, the Americas seem to have been re-infected with it.

thank you

yes there are always new variants coming up that go around existing immuum systems

for T Pestis 1st variant seems neolithic
2nd is the 'Bronze Age variant', and that one was probably in large parts spread by the mobile steppe people
allthough mass migrations were not necessary for the spread, sporadic contacts between seperate populations seem to have been sufficient

my understanding is that pseudoTBC and TBC are not the same, only the symptoms are similar
is pseudoTBC very dangerous and very contagious for humans?

so, early TBC variants are suspected to have infected hominids are since 3 Ma
earliest detected TBC is in Atlit Yam, levantine PPNB, when you google Atlit Yam, it pops up
TBC and other diseases spreading are suspected to have been caused by close contacts between man and animals
PPNB started when early herders from SE Anatolia came in contact with cereal farmers in the southern Levant and the Upper Euphrates
so, these herders may have brought it to the Levant

 

[Angela]

thank you

yes there are always new variants coming up that go around existing immuum systems

for T Pestis 1st variant seems neolithic
2nd is the 'Bronze Age variant', and that one was probably in large parts spread by the mobile steppe people
allthough mass migrations were not necessary for the spread, sporadic contacts between seperate populations seem to have been sufficient

my understanding is that pseudoTBC and TBC are not the same, only the symptoms are similar
is pseudoTBC very dangerous and very contagious for humans?

so, early TBC variants are suspected to have infected hominids are since 3 Ma
earliest detected TBC is in Atlit Yam, levantine PPNB, when you google Atlit Yam, it pops up
TBC and other diseases spreading are suspected to have been caused by close contacts between man and animals
PPNB started when early herders from SE Anatolia came in contact with cereal farmers in the southern Levant and the Upper Euphrates
so, these herders may have brought it to the Levant

Pseudotuberculosis seems to be completely different, in fact, a stomach illness spread by contaminated food or water, and unless the person is immunocompromised, not fatal.

The culprit is once again animals, including, of course, farm animals.

 

[Pip]

Wow, really?

He's late to the party. We discussed this back in 2014-2016, and earlier this week again.

@Johane Derite,



I don't know what was in his mind. To me, the point is that we find some steppe in the Balkans at that time, but none in Anatolia, also a thriving "farmer" area. So, maybe plague didn't nicely lower the native population there, and so they were repulsed, or, perhaps they did take the Balkan route, but given how vastly outnumbered they were, little genetic trace remains.

Again, it depends what is meant by steppe - Steppe DNA differs substantially depending on which date and which part of the Steppe you are looking at. If Steppe DNA is identified as a mix of EHG and Caucasus components, then this was already present in Central Anatolia around 8,000 BC, and had increased in proportion by the Armenian Chalcolithic. Phylogenically, there is also an ancient-looking Balkan/Anatolian branching within R1b-PF7562. Perhaps a first wave Steppe element from the Balkans was already in Anatolia before the plague took hold, and a second wave Steppe element was already in the Caucasus region (outside of the main plague zone) when it hit. Albeit, yes, it would have been outnumbered and left a relatively small genetic trace.

Might the plague or some other similar disease have been a factor in the decimation of the Steppe populations too? All but a few of their early lineages appear to have disappeared without trace; and those that survived and thrived did so mostly away from the Steppe.

 

[bicicleur 2]

Pseudotuberculosis seems to be completely different, in fact, a stomach illness spread by contaminated food or water, and unless the person is immunocompromised, not fatal.
The culprit is once again animals, including, of course, farm animals.

Genetically, the pathogen causing plague, Y. pestis, is very similar to Y. pseudotuberculosis. The plague appears to have evolved from Y. pseudotuberculosis about 1500 to 20,000 years ago.[7] A 2015 paper in Cell argued for an older divergence.[8]

So, a relative harmless bacterium mutated into a deadly variant.

It would be interesting to know a more precise TMRCA between pestis and pseudoTBC.

 

[Angela]

Again, it depends what is meant by steppe - Steppe DNA differs substantially depending on which date and which part of the Steppe you are looking at. If Steppe DNA is identified as a mix of EHG and Caucasus components, then this was already present in Central Anatolia around 8,000 BC, and had increased in proportion by the Armenian Chalcolithic. Phylogenically, there is also an ancient-looking Balkan/Anatolian branching within R1b-PF7562. Perhaps a first wave Steppe element from the Balkans was already in Anatolia before the plague took hold, and a second wave Steppe element was already in the Caucasus region (outside of the main plague zone) when it hit. Albeit, yes, it would have been outnumbered and left a relatively small genetic trace.

Might the plague or some other similar disease have been a factor in the decimation of the Steppe populations too? All but a few of their early lineages appear to have disappeared without trace; and those that survived and thrived did so mostly away from the Steppe.

Everyone knows that CHG/Iran Neo was present in Anatolia from a very early period. What was and is so far missing at the appropriate time is EHG. They have found the mix in the Balkans. They haven't found it in Anatolia at the appropriate time.

The archaeology, as I have pointed out for years points in the other direction.

Be that as it may, they may find it tomorrow. The Reich Lab may have it in among their hundreds of ancient samples but haven't yet written up the paper.

This is the situation at the present time.

 

[Pip]

Everyone knows that CHG/Iran Neo was present in Anatolia from a very early period. What was and is so far missing at the appropriate time is EHG. They have found the mix in the Balkans. They haven't found it in Anatolia at the appropriate time.

The archaeology, as I have pointed out for years points in the other direction.

Be that as it may, they may find it tomorrow. The Reich Lab may have it in among their hundreds of ancient samples but haven't yet written up the paper.

This is the situation at the present time.

A 10-15% EHG component was found in the Areni samples in Southern Armenia dated to approximately 4,150 BC. I don't see any reason why this wouldn't have already have been present (or at least spread) west of there to some degree, particularly as there was (i) already an element of EHG in Central Anatolia around 8,000 BC , and (ii) a smaller element of EHG within Kura Araxes samples before the arrival of further injections of EHG from North Caucasus Maykop and Caspian Indo-Aryans.

 

[Angela]

A 10-15% EHG component was found in the Areni samples in Southern Armenia dated to approximately 4,150 BC. I don't see any reason why this wouldn't have already have been present (or at least spread) west of there to some degree, particularly as there was (i) already an element of EHG in Central Anatolia around 8,000 BC , and (ii) a smaller element of EHG within Kura Araxes samples before the arrival of further injections of EHG from North Caucasus Maykop and Caspian Indo-Aryans.

Could you provide sources for the bolded comments? Thanks in advance.

 

[Pip]

Could you provide sources for the bolded comments? Thanks in advance.

They are on the main admixture analysis on Genetiker's website - the Areni samples are identified as Armenia CA, and the older samples as C Asia Minor PPN.
Due to (i) the eastern skewing of Southern EHG, and (ii) the eastern estimated coalescence points for different branches of Southern R1b-M269 and R1a-M417, it still looks more likely that the various Anatolian insertions of EHG each entered it from the Caucasus, rather than directly from the Balkans. My view is that most of the resilient EHG in the region came in two pulses - from the North Western Caucasus around 4,000 BC and the North Eastern Caucasus in the late 3rd millennium BC. Perhaps only the latter would have come from East European populations that had been substantially impacted by plague?

 

[Angela]

Sorry, let me know when you have a cite to an academic source which found EHG in them.