Was Neolithic Europe the source of the plague?

Something just occurred to me. They're concluding it arose and spread from the mega-proto-cities of the Balkans, and also suggesting that it was pneumonic plague, passed by coughing.

So, they're suggesting some infected people (they have no samples from these "cities" which test positive for y pestis) left for Gokland and somehow didn't manage to die during the journey, got there and just started coughing? Don't you die within days from pneumonic plague? You'd need some fast transportation.

Symptoms start three to seven days after exposure. Death can be in 36 hours.
http://indoeuropean.wdfiles.com/local--files/abstract/SS2017_Gray_slides_Pavia2018v2.pdf.

I suppose it could have been like a relay, spreading from village to village, because I don't think people were able to move vast distances very quickly. Even with varieties that spread via flea bites, I think that in two weeks the rats die. The Genovese galleys from the Black Sea moved pretty quickly, and then would be taking on board newly infected rats for the next haul.

For the steppe, anyway, maybe they were just really fond of marmot fur, and the marmots being infected, they got it when they butchered and skinned the animals.
 
Angela said:
Don't you die within days from pneumonic plague? You'd need some fast transportation.

Symptoms start three to seven days after exposure. Death can be in 36 hours.
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People flee where the plague is prevalent. They could conceivably get as far as seven days away before showing symptoms and being infectious. If fleeing in a wagon or boat, they could easily infect, or be infected by, fellow passengers.
 
Angela said:
Everyone knows that CHG/Iran Neo was present in Anatolia from a very early period. What was and is so far missing at the appropriate time is EHG. They have found the mix in the Balkans. They haven't found it in Anatolia at the appropriate time.
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I would be grateful if you would let me know of any academic sources that demonstrate there was no EHG in early Anatolia, and also that specifically refute the claimed discovery of EHG in the Areni samples from Southern Armenia 4,150 BC and the PPNB samples from Central Anatolia 8,000 BC[FONT=Helvetica, Arial, sans-serif].[/FONT]
 
Is this a joke?

All of the last series of papers discussing the Balkans and Anatolia say it isn't there at the appropriate time, at least not among the published samples.

If you don't think the Reich Lab (Lazardis) knows what's in the published samples, then I don't know what to tell you.

"These expansions are probable vectors for the spread of LateProto-Indo-European[44] languages from eastern Europe into both mainland Europe and parts ofAsia, but the lack of steppe ancestry in the few known samples from Bronze Age Anatolia[45] •raises the possibility that the steppe was not the ultimate origin of Proto-Indo-European (PIE),the common ancestral language of Anatolian speakers, Tocharians, and Late Proto-Indo Europeans. In the next few years this lingering mystery will be solved: either Anatolian speakerswill be shown to possess steppe-related ancestry absent in earlier Anatolians (largely proving thesteppe PIE hypothesis), or they will not (largely falsifying it, and pointing to a Near Eastern PIEhomeland).
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1805/1805.01579.pdf

Then there's Damguard.
https://indo-european.eu/2018/05/no...tions-and-mlba-brought-lpie-dialects-in-asia/

Could some show up tomorrow? Sure. That's not the point.

I'm tired of all this conjecture with no factual proof.

Even Willerslev is doing it. Not kosher.
 
Angela said:
Something just occurred to me. They're concluding it arose and spread from the mega-proto-cities of the Balkans, and also suggesting that it was pneumonic plague, passed by coughing.

So, they're suggesting some infected people (they have no samples from these "cities" which test positive for y pestis) left for Gokland and somehow didn't manage to die during the journey, got there and just started coughing? Don't you die within days from pneumonic plague? You'd need some fast transportation.

Symptoms start three to seven days after exposure. Death can be in 36 hours.
http://indoeuropean.wdfiles.com/local--files/abstract/SS2017_Gray_slides_Pavia2018v2.pdf.

I suppose it could have been like a relay, spreading from village to village, because I don't think people were able to move vast distances very quickly. Even with varieties that spread via flea bites, I think that in two weeks the rats die. The Genovese galleys from the Black Sea moved pretty quickly, and then would be taking on board newly infected rats for the next haul.

For the steppe, anyway, maybe they were just really fond of marmot fur, and the marmots being infected, they got it when they butchered and skinned the animals.
Click to expand...

it must have spread almost from village to village
and it probably came from Central or Western Europe to Southern Scandinavia as the neolithic population crash there happened already some 400 years earlier
indeed, early TRB didn't have megaliths, it arrived in a later state, probably from Atlantic Europe

the origin of this Y Pestis clade was probably even older, 5.7 ka, the TMRCA with the bronze age Y Pestis clade
where? I don't know
 
Angela said:
Is this a joke?

All of the last series of papers discussing the Balkans and Anatolia say it isn't there at the appropriate time, at least not among the published samples.

If you don't think the Reich Lab (Lazardis) knows what's in the published samples, then I don't know what to tell you.

"These expansions are probable vectors for the spread of LateProto-Indo-European[44] languages from eastern Europe into both mainland Europe and parts ofAsia, but the lack of steppe ancestry in the few known samples from Bronze Age Anatolia[45] •raises the possibility that the steppe was not the ultimate origin of Proto-Indo-European (PIE),the common ancestral language of Anatolian speakers, Tocharians, and Late Proto-Indo Europeans. In the next few years this lingering mystery will be solved: either Anatolian speakerswill be shown to possess steppe-related ancestry absent in earlier Anatolians (largely proving thesteppe PIE hypothesis), or they will not (largely falsifying it, and pointing to a Near Eastern PIEhomeland).
https://arxiv.org/ftp/arxiv/papers/1805/1805.01579.pdf

Then there's Damguard.
https://indo-european.eu/2018/05/no...tions-and-mlba-brought-lpie-dialects-in-asia/

Could some show up tomorrow? Sure. That's not the point.

I'm tired of all this conjecture with no factual proof.

Even Willerslev is doing it. Not kosher.
Click to expand...
I will run through the academic source you asked me to cite
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/bior...22347.full.pdf step by step.
Go to figure 2 on page 26. On the right hand side of the screen, you will see autosomal analysis of five EHG samples, which are coloured mostly blue with a substantial minority of dark green.You will also see there the five Armenian Chalcolithic (Areni) samples from 4,150 BC that I mentioned previously, which are principally dark green with a substantial minority of blue (12% on average). The study also shows this mix of blue and dark green also present in its sole Anatolia Chalcolithic sample. The autosomal components shown in this academic study are similar to those analysed by Genetiker using a different calculation basis.

We don't need to wait until tomorrow - the data showing association between early EHG and early Anatolia is already there today, and unsurprisingly its conclusions tie up with analysis that places some early development of EHG y-DNA (e.g. R1b-M269) lineages most likely in Eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus.

The two studies you have cited are interesting, although neither seem to present evidence to demonstrate that autosomal components found in EHG are not also found in Chalcolithic Anatolia. The first study is just narrative (there is no evidential data in it), and the second study indicates that EHG ancestry at one Anatolian site did not increase over the Bronze Age period 2,200 to 1,600 BC (matching my own estimates that significant EHG arrival in Anatolia occurred much earlier than this, most likely in the early fifth millennium BC - some time before plague took hold in Europe).
 
Pip said:
I will run through the academic source you asked me to cite
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/bior...22347.full.pdf step by step.
Go to figure 2 on page 26. On the right hand side of the screen, you will see autosomal analysis of five EHG samples, which are coloured mostly blue with a substantial minority of dark green.You will also see there the five Armenian Chalcolithic (Areni) samples from 4,150 BC that I mentioned previously, which are principally dark green with a substantial minority of blue (12% on average). The study also shows this mix of blue and dark green also present in its sole Anatolia Chalcolithic sample. The autosomal components shown in this academic study are similar to those analysed by Genetiker using a different calculation basis.

We don't need to wait until tomorrow - the data showing association between early EHG and early Anatolia is already there today, and unsurprisingly its conclusions tie up with analysis that places some early development of EHG y-DNA (e.g. R1b-M269) lineages most likely in Eastern Anatolia and the Caucasus.

The two studies you have cited are interesting, although neither seem to present evidence to demonstrate that autosomal components found in EHG are not also found in Chalcolithic Anatolia. The first study is just narrative (there is no evidential data in it), and the second study indicates that EHG ancestry at one Anatolian site did not increase over the Bronze Age period 2,200 to 1,600 BC (matching my own estimates that significant EHG arrival in Anatolia occurred much earlier than this, most likely in the early fifth millennium BC - some time before plague took hold in Europe).
Click to expand...

The "blue" in that Admixture analysis is WHG or WHG like, as you can see if you look at the bar for WHG and the Admixture for the Anatolian Neolithic samples, where it is already present, as we knew long before this paper.

It's also in European MN etc.

Wang views EHG as WHG with some Iran Neo and some Siberian, but doesn't use an EHG sample as a reference, so we can't say from that if there was EHG in those samples or just some residue of ancient European like hunter-gatherers. If you want to know if there's EHG in a sample you have to compare the sample to an EHG reference sample or everything is going to get confused.

The two cites I gave you are the conclusions of two people from the foremost pop gen lab in the world. If you want to argue with them write to them at Harvard and have at it.
 
Angela said:
The "blue" in that Admixture analysis is WHG or WHG like, as you can see if you look at the bar for WHG and the Admixture for the Anatolian Neolithic samples, where it is already present, as we knew long before this paper.
It's also in European MN etc.
Wang views EHG as WHG with some Iran Neo and some Siberian, but doesn't use an EHG sample as a reference, so we can't say from that if there was EHG in those samples or just some residue of ancient European like hunter-gatherers. If you want to know if there's EHG in a sample you have to compare the sample to an EHG reference sample or everything is going to get confused.
The two cites I gave you are the conclusions of two people from the foremost pop gen lab in the world. If you want to argue with them write to them at Harvard and have at it.
Click to expand...
I have no interest in arguing with anybody, and do not automatically accept what someone says just because they get paid for working at Harvard.
As I mentioned, there are five EHG reference samples in the study I cited, which have a greater similarity to the Armenian Chalcolithic samples than the WHG samples do. They have the same mix of WHG and Iran Neo. If you're going to insist on a slither of Siberian before calling it EHG, then we'll have to say that much of Bell Beaker and Corded Ware has no EHG either.
The point is that there was an infusion of European DNA into Chalcolithic Eastern Anatolia (call it eastern Western Hunter Gatherer if you like) that looks to have arrived via the Caucasus. It matches estimates for the branching of yDNA Steppe lineages and appears to pre-date the spread of plague in Europe.
 
Pip said:
I have no interest in arguing with anybody, and do not automatically accept what someone says just because they get paid for working at Harvard.
As I mentioned, there are five EHG reference samples in the study I cited, which have a greater similarity to the Armenian Chalcolithic samples than the WHG samples do. They have the same mix of WHG and Iran Neo. If you're going to insist on a slither of Siberian before calling it EHG, then we'll have to say that much of Bell Beaker and Corded Ware has no EHG either.
The point is that there was an infusion of European DNA into Chalcolithic Eastern Anatolia (call it eastern Western Hunter Gatherer if you like) that looks to have arrived via the Caucasus. It matches estimates for the branching of yDNA Steppe lineages and appears to pre-date the spread of plague in Europe.
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The early Anatolian farmers have even more of the blue 'WHG' component. It's probably just shared ancestry. Remember that the bulk of Dzudzuana's ancestry was Villabruna-like, so ultimately that's also where most of the ancestry of ancient and present day Near Easterners derives from.
 
markod said:
The early Anatolian farmers have even more of the blue 'WHG' component. It's probably just shared ancestry. Remember that the bulk of Dzudzuana's ancestry was Villabruna-like, so ultimately that's also where most of the ancestry of ancient and present day Near Easterners derives from.
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Yes, perhaps. DNA was probably leaking in and out of Eastern Europe, Anatolia and the Steppe over thousands of years. The blue component in South West Asia (whether WHG or EHG) is unlikely to represent a single pulse of Indo-European invaders from plague-hit Europe. And in any case, analysis of y-DNA would suggest that such invaders likely headed mostly South and East of the Caucasus, rather than into Anatolia.

If EHG is simply WHG with some Iran Neo and some Siberian, then you have to question whether it properly exists as a separate classification, rather than being simply the DNA of a community of WHG people who had accepted some people of Eastern (Siberian and Iranian) origin into their community.

The most interesting thing to me from the data in the Caucasus study is the distribution of the darker green Iran Neo component, which covers Iran, the Caucasus, Ukraine and Greece, whilst being mostly missing from the Anatolian Neolithic. The major spread of people looks to be over the Northern Pontic, rather than involving Anatolia.

Another interesting aspect is that the autosomal components of both Caucasus and Steppe populations show little change over the period 4,300 BC to 1,800 BC, i.e. there's no sign of any significant population shifts in this part of the world during or just after the plague era. Perhaps plague did not decimate Anatolia because the people involved in its spread got nowhere near it, but only circulated around Central and Western Europe?
 
I have been thinking : Both Corded Ware & Sintashta & all other derived populations are autosomal Yamna + EEF, except one early CW individual in Latvia (he was 100 % Yamna).
Why did this mixture with EEF survive? CW were 75 % Yamna + 25 % EEF and even Sintashta, when it appeared east of the Urals had the same amount of EEF.
My guess : neolithic West- and Central Europe became largely depopulated since 5.3 ka because of the plague.
The residual farmers population would have gained immunity against this early form of the plague, but the incoming CW wouldn't. Only those who mixed with farmers daughters got immunity, and Sintashta were CW with immunity gained in Central Europe going back east.
I'd like your comments on this.
 
bicicleur said:
I have been thinking : Both Corded Ware & Sintashta & all other derived populations are autosomal Yamna + EEF, except one early CW individual in Latvia (he was 100 % Yamna).
Why did this mixture with EEF survive? CW were 75 % Yamna + 25 % EEF and even Sintashta, when it appeared east of the Urals had the same amount of EEF.
My guess : neolithic West- and Central Europe became largely depopulated since 5.3 ka because of the plague.
The residual farmers population would have gained immunity against this early form of the plague, but the incoming CW wouldn't. Only those who mixed with farmers daughters got immunity, and Sintashta were CW with immunity gained in Central Europe going back east.
I'd like your comments on this.
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I would refine your antecedent statement slightly, as this might subtly affect the conclusion. Autosomally, I would say that Corded Ware, Sintashta and other derived populations were largely Khvalynsk + South Eastern EEF (with the Latvian exception being Yamnayan, as you mentioned).

This seems to narrow down the surviving population even further to the autosomally-mixed (probably Suvorovo-derived) people of the Eastern Balkans. By the mid third millennium BC, most sections of both Steppe and EEF populations appear to have died out. All that really thrived were people of a similar autosomal mix (and perhaps largely shared ancestry) - from yDNA haplogroups R1b-L51, R1a-Z645 and G2a-PF3345.

Whether this occurred because these particular people had developed an immunity to the plague is unclear, but I don't think it can be ruled out.
It is interesting that Yamnaya extended to Latvia, but that even these Yamnayans adopting the Corded Ware culture died out after coming into contact with the admixed people.
 
Pip said:
I would refine your antecedent statement slightly, as this might subtly affect the conclusion. Autosomally, I would say that Corded Ware, Sintashta and other derived populations were largely Khvalynsk + South Eastern EEF (with the Latvian exception being Yamnayan, as you mentioned).
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why do you think southeastern EEF?
do you mean Balkan/Carpathian Basin?
Pip said:
This seems to narrow down the surviving population even further to the autosomally-mixed (probably Suvorovo-derived) people of the Eastern Balkans. By the mid third millennium BC, most sections of both Steppe and EEF populations appear to have died out. All that really thrived were people of a similar autosomal mix (and perhaps largely shared ancestry) - from yDNA haplogroups R1b-L51, R1a-Z645 and G2a-PF3345.
Whether this occurred because these particular people had developed an immunity to the plague is unclear, but I don't think it can be ruled out.
It is interesting that Yamnaya extended to Latvia, but that even these Yamnayans adopting the Corded Ware culture died out after coming into contact with the admixed people.
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Yes, I think the same, EHG and non-admixed pure Yamna CW went extinct because of the EEF admixed CW moving east.

CW expansion came after a bottle neck.
 
bicicleur said:
why do you think southeastern EEF?
do you mean Balkan/Carpathian Basin?
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For a few reasons:
1. The two Suvorovo-looking first heavily-admixed samples that we have are both from Bulgaria, and fit best with G2a2b admixture.
2. Bell Beaker's mtDNA fits best with Cucuteni Tripolye, which I think was likely heavily G2a2b.
3. South Eastern G2a2b is the only main EEF yDNA G lineage that appears to have thrived after the Neolithic collapse.

Yes, Balkan/Carpathian Basin.
 
bicicleur said:
Yes, I think the same, EHG and non-admixed pure Yamna CW went extinct because of the EEF admixed CW moving east.

CW expansion came after a bottle neck.
Click to expand...
I suppose it makes sense in a way. Eastern DNA had been pegged back in the Steppe and the far North for millennia by WHG and EEF. Something significant presumably triggered the sudden change in fortune.
 
This is a link to the Kristiansen talk on the paper. Starting around 9:00 he says that the plague was spread to the Neolithic communities of southeastern Europe/Ukraine by sporadic contact with steppe people in advance of the major actual steppe migrations. The large, crowded Neolithic communities were perfect for the mass spread and mass death which followed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oi1C1XMYU2Q&list=PLmRZN1FA-ksaFQ_bSPy6L9bFQ1uC2Nv4q&index=2

I must say he didn't make that as clear in the paper. Indeed, even in this talk he earlier says the Neolithic communities were perfect for the development of new mutations. So, is he hedging his bets, or he knows Krause and company will show it started on the steppe? I have no idea.

Amusingly, he says some of his colleagues (Krause) think much of their work is speculation. He calls it "predictive modeling". I think speculation is more accurate, but he may be correct regardless.

I think other researchers are rushing into print before the Paabo, Krause, Reich behemoths (which are much more careful, imo), get all the glory. :)
 
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