Population structure in Italy using ancient and modern samples

[Palermo Trapani]

Ailichu/Jovialis: Model fits using 1) Ancient Sicilian samples from Fernandes et al 2020, 2) Ancient Greeks from Lazaridis et al 2018. Those ancient Sicilian samples in Fernandes et al 2020 were analyzed and indicated that Steppe Ancestry arrived in Sicily in 2200 BC, before the Mycenean's which also had some Steppe ancestry documented. So for me fits are pretty good, but I get slightly better fit with the Ancient Sicilian Samples than the Ancient Greeks but I would think (I will go and check) that some of those Ancient Sicilian Samples are not going to be way, way off from a galaxy far far away from the Ancient Greek samples.

1) Model fit Dodecad 12B using Bronze Age Sicilian samples from Fernandes et al 2020

Target: PalermoTrapani Distance: 6.2704% / 6.27041187 | ADC: 0.25x
39.2	I4383_Sicily_EBA_lowcov_Vallone_Inferno
32.2	I11443_Sicily_EBA_Buffa_Cave_II
28.6	I7796_Sicily_EBA_Contrada_Paolina_Castellucciana

Model Fits using Dodecad 12B and Ancient Greek Samples from Lazaridis et al 2017 "Genetic origins of the Minoans and Mycenaeans"

Target: PalermoTrapani Distance: 8.5519% / 8.55188147 | ADC: 0.25x
58.0	I9123_Bronze_Age_Armenoi_Crete
24.4	I9131_Bronze_Age_Minoan_Moni_Odigitria_Heraklion_C rete
17.6	I9041_Bronze_Age_Mycenaean_Galatas_Apatheia_Pelopo nnese

3) Dodecad model fit using ancient Natufian, Chalcolithic_Levant, and Early_MPPNB_Ain_Ghazal_Jordan samples. Looks like the early Levant Neolithic from the AinGhazal Jordanian site can get me to 14 at best, which again shows some relationship between all Near East Populations as they all stem from some Base Western Eurasian cluster but still enough variation such that Anatolian Farmers, Levant-Neolithic, Caucus HG and Iran Neolithic were distinct genetic clusters, again all somewhat related.

Target: PalermoTrapani Distance: 14.0635% / 14.06345771 | ADC: 0.25x
56.4	I1415_AG84/2_Late_MPPNB_Ain_Ghazal_Jordan
43.6	I1416_AG83/1_Early_MPPNB_Ain_Ghazal_Jordan

Need to see how well I can fit myself using CHG type ancestry or Iran-Neolithic or similar from Armenia, etc. But based on the Ancient Sicilian samples, the ancient Greek samples and the ancient Levant samples, and the Iron Age Roman samples from my post 806,

1) Iron Age Roman samples give me best fit, 2) Bronze Age Sicilians give me the next best fit, 2) Ancient Greeks give me the next, and 4) Levant-Neolithic type ancestry average at best fit. Of course, the Iron Age Roman samples are from a closer time period but still we are talking about samples from 900 BC to 300 BC period.