The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

Autosomal best-fit suggests that:
1. R1b-L51 and R1a-M417 were most likely at one time within the same population
2. L51 substantially admixed with other European populations, M417 largely did not
3. Northern L51 (U106) later admixed with Northern M417 (Z283 & L664)
4. Southern L51 (P312) largely did not admix with Southern M417

Perhaps L51 became marginalised westwards in Europe by M417, and then led a kind of reconquista, in which Northern M417 mostly collaborated and joined with U106, and Southern M417 was mostly eliminated as a result of conflict with P312 Bell Beaker?
 
Unless it's my tiredness kicking in, do people not realise how important this is?! This is R1b-L151, in Southern France no less (and by the Rhône no less too), with absolutely no sign of Steppe.

Instead, it has a lot of WHG, and a lot of ENF too. Rather Basque-like.

But what exactly that WHG-ENF L-51 from Southern France explain your Middle-Eastern origin for L-51 too? That's taking a lot of shortcuts. Also if L-51 was from Chalcolithic Middle-East, shouldn't they P312 and U106 Beakers individuals show at least some Anatolia_Chalcolithic and Iran_Chalcolithic? Instead the shows lots of Steppe? I believe in a ghost migration of some sort from Anatolia bringing some Chalcolithic Middle-Eastern ancestry ( Anatolia Chl and Iran Chl ) in mainland Europe, but link it with R1b seems doubtfull.
 
Thing is, we already sees R1b DF-27 in Cogotas 1700-1000 BC and even R1b-S28 2450 BC in Central Europe, wich means the time frame between L51 expansion and DF-27 and S28 births were extremelly short.
 
But what exactly that WHG-ENF L-51 from Southern France explain your Middle-Eastern origin for L-51 too? That's taking a lot of shortcuts. Also if L-51 was from Chalcolithic Middle-East, shouldn't they P312 and U106 Beakers individuals show at least some Anatolia_Chalcolithic and Iran_Chalcolithic? Instead the shows lots of Steppe? I believe in a ghost migration of some sort from Anatolia bringing some Chalcolithic Middle-Eastern ancestry ( Anatolia Chl and Iran Chl ) in mainland Europe, but link it with R1b seems doubtfull.

That farmer (maybe herder as was mentioned the area it was found in isn’t conducive to agriculture) L151 sample, if I’m not mistaken, does show elevated CHG (without ANE) relative to normal ChL West Meds, consistent with extra West Asian (and not Steppe) ancestry, though I personally would have expected a little bit of Steppe. We know basically for a fact (a few stragglers disagree, but there’s so much other archaeological evidence, see Los Millares’s wiki for example) that copper metallurgy was introduced to Iberia from West Asia, so it really isn’t a big shortcut. I think L51 would mostly mix with the women of the natives they came across, but keeping to themselves as a separate elite besides this extra female-mediated gene flow. We can see that through the phylogenetic tree of L51, which was struggling for quite a while (so it wasn’t like they were having sex with all the women like they did in the Bronze Age). From roughly the arrival of Corded Ware at the Rhineland, we then see L51 massively expands. If L51 was part of Corded Ware, why does it not show evidence of population growth in its phylogenetic tree during the earlier Corded Ware expansions? I think it makes more sense to imagine a Völkerwanderung type scenario with L51, with CWC acting as the Huns.

Another point worth mentioning - BB is Dinarid, and CWC is proto-Nordic. These phenotypes are extremely, extremely different from one another, I can’t see how they could be of the same stock unless one was separated from the other as part of their own in-group, and there isn’t any evidence for that given all our knowledge of Corded Ware (they seem rather like bands of Vikings, but mainly over land instead of sea)
 
Autosomal best-fit suggests that:
1. R1b-L51 and R1a-M417 were most likely at one time within the same population
2. L51 substantially admixed with other European populations, M417 largely did not
3. Northern L51 (U106) later admixed with Northern M417 (Z283 & L664)
4. Southern L51 (P312) largely did not admix with Southern M417

Perhaps L51 became marginalised westwards in Europe by M417, and then led a kind of reconquista, in which Northern M417 mostly collaborated and joined with U106, and Southern M417 was mostly eliminated as a result of conflict with P312 Bell Beaker?

How did you reach the conclusion of point 1? I pretty much agree with the rest though.
 
That farmer (maybe herder as was mentioned the area it was found in isn’t conducive to agriculture) L151 sample, if I’m not mistaken, does show elevated CHG (without ANE) relative to normal ChL West Meds, consistent with extra West Asian (and not Steppe) ancestry, though I personally would have expected a little bit of Steppe. We know basically for a fact (a few stragglers disagree, but there’s so much other archaeological evidence, see Los Millares’s wiki for example) that copper metallurgy was introduced to Iberia from West Asia, so it really isn’t a big shortcut. I think L51 would mostly mix with the women of the natives they came across, but keeping to themselves as a separate elite besides this extra female-mediated gene flow. We can see that through the phylogenetic tree of L51, which was struggling for quite a while (so it wasn’t like they were having sex with all the women like they did in the Bronze Age). From roughly the arrival of Corded Ware at the Rhineland, we then see L51 massively expands. If L51 was part of Corded Ware, why does it not show evidence of population growth in its phylogenetic tree during the earlier Corded Ware expansions? I think it makes more sense to imagine a Völkerwanderung type scenario with L51, with CWC acting as the Huns.

Another point worth mentioning - BB is Dinarid, and CWC is proto-Nordic. These phenotypes are extremely, extremely different from one another, I can’t see how they could be of the same stock unless one was separated from the other as part of their own in-group, and there isn’t any evidence for that given all our knowledge of Corded Ware (they seem rather like bands of Vikings, but mainly over land instead of sea)

Being CHG and ENF with increase of WHG is called being a serious outlier in this contexte, so i really doubt of those autosomal realities. Also, Iberia would have been mostly EEF in the times those L51 arrived from west asia, so with little place for a WHG ancestry increase. Also it's very suspicious to see CHG without ANE or Steppe considered the shared ancestry. This shouldn't work like this, you cannot separate CHG by it's putative related ancestry or Mal'ta wouldn't show some CHG ancestry.
 
Being CHG and ENF with increase of WHG is called being a serious outlier in this contexte, so i really doubt of those autosomal realities. Also, Iberia would have been mostly EEF in the times those L51 arrived from west asia, so with little place for a WHG ancestry increase. Also it's very suspicious to see CHG without ANE or Steppe considered the shared ancestry. This shouldn't work like this, you cannot separate CHG by it's putative related ancestry or Mal'ta wouldn't show some CHG ancestry.

True, I just used Gedmatch calculators which put this sample on higher CHG than normal Iberian farmers. Someone who knows how to should do some analysis on it, as regardless it remains that it’s a HG-enriched Iberian farmer type with minuscule ANE
 
True, I just used Gedmatch calculators which put this sample on higher CHG than normal Iberian farmers. Someone who knows how to should do some analysis on it, as regardless it remains that it’s a HG-enriched Iberian farmer type with minuscule ANE

Your individual would look more like something Sardinian CHG-rich ( i just invented this ) than West Asian with those results. Also Gedmatch isn't anymore the good tools for this, as even Davidski is only using Global 25 nMonte. As for ANE ancestry, we need to remember that EHG-CHG-Iran_Neolithic have a specific ANE ancestry that comes probably from the Paleolithic while Steppe must have an increase of WSHG ancestry so a second ANE ancestry that putative CHG ( Kotias and Satsurblia ) and Iran_Neo ( Hotu and Ganj Dareh ) would not have. I'm not a calculator user so i dont know how all this work, but, if it's possible to separate ANE1 to ANE2, it's then possible to remove or add ancestry in any kind of sample. As far as i know, you can only differentiate EHG and CHG with extra or non Basal Eurasian Ancestry.
 
think L51 would mostly mix with the women of the natives they came across, but keeping to themselves as a separate elite besides this extra female-mediated gene flow.
Perhaps this is the solution to the enigma of how its EHG and EEF components are stable, whilst it's CHG component is highly variable, despite best-fit suggesting that it was present in the parent population from early on.
Either the CHG-enriched or the CHG-scarce samples might have derived from an elite group that kept itself separate until such strict caste differences broke down as EEF society collapsed and BB/CW began rapidly expanding.
 
Interesting paper on Los Millares' links to the Middle East:

https://www.researchgate.net/public...ssible_relations_to_the_Western_Mediterranean

"Symbolkeramik was long regarded as diagnostic for Los Millares I and Vila Nova de Sao Pedro I (Early Chalcolithic). The find contexts in the graves, however, suggest that the Symbolkeramik belongs mainly to an advanced phase of the Early Chalcolithic and the subsequent Bell Beaker period."

Iberianidols.jpg

... the map shows "Everything" but, Los Millares! :) -- Do you know where it is?
 
That farmer (maybe herder as was mentioned the area it was found in isn’t conducive to agriculture) L151 sample, if I’m not mistaken, does show elevated CHG (without ANE) relative to normal ChL West Meds, consistent with extra West Asian (and not Steppe) ancestry,

Having an L151 in Iberia (close to Iberia), with no steppe and high WHG and CHG is my holy grail. It needs to be if you are a Shulaverian.

...I think L51 would mostly mix with the women of the natives they came across, but keeping to themselves as a separate elite besides this extra female-mediated gene flow. We can see that through the phylogenetic tree of L51, which was struggling for quite a while (so it wasn’t like they were having sex with all the women like they did in the Bronze Age).

What was remarkable about BB in Portugal, for instance in Leceia fortress, is that the BB huts remained BB for over 200 years and huts hundreds of meters, meters, remained non Bell beaker for all those years. Amazing. From Hut FM to Hut 3, the pottery remained differentiated for ages. They never mixed Generation after generation.




From roughly the arrival of Corded Ware at the Rhineland, we then see L51 massively expands. If L51 was part of Corded Ware, why ....

... Those guys in the huts above, just started to move into the rest of europe and mixed with lots of exogenous females. That is why you have that admix for L151, because look at an hypometric map (go to google and choose terrain), both the outgoing into CWC land and the later Incoming into Iberia, because of terrain, both went by that route. if that L151 has no steppe, then it was the outgoing from Iberia.
 
.... Allow me a quote from the https://shulaveri2bellbeaker.blogs.sapo.pt/ (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fMjPfvVqiNdhIiBjsWmwk2Nxo7mXUTze/view)

Page 42

"To understand this movement of people, and I can’t stress this enough, one should look at ab hypsometric map (mountains, lowlands, etc.) of the Iberia Peninsula. It’s obvious why things were as they were. And also why one should therefore be very careful with any
characterization of the Iberian Peninsula as a monolithic thing. Crossing Gibraltar its really intuitive just stop at the vast lowland . That is why the chalcolithic “city” of Valencina de la Concepción is in there when you look ahead and there is a mountain range in front of you. Also turning eastward populations just followed the plains and then farther ahead bump into high elevation again stop, and the “Marroquíes Bajos “ stood there where Jaen is today. Turning south, there is a narrow mountains passage and you end up in Los Millares back in the Mediterranean Sea. Great place to be defended. From land they can only came from one place. Those guys must have had a lot on their hands inferred by how keen they were of defense walls. Those walls were just meant to push away the incoming populations that were being pump out of North Africa by the Desertification and arising of the new Sahara Desert. Those were probably really pump up (pun intended), stressed and not at all in a chatting mood. I imagine that this 3 have a story of their own."
 
.... Allow me a quote from the https://shulaveri2bellbeaker.blogs.sapo.pt/ (https://drive.google.com/file/d/1fMjPfvVqiNdhIiBjsWmwk2Nxo7mXUTze/view)

Page 42

"To understand this movement of people, and I can’t stress this enough, one should look at ab hypsometric map (mountains, lowlands, etc.) of the Iberia Peninsula. It’s obvious why things were as they were. And also why one should therefore be very careful with any
characterization of the Iberian Peninsula as a monolithic thing. Crossing Gibraltar its really intuitive just stop at the vast lowland . That is why the chalcolithic “city” of Valencina de la Concepción is in there when you look ahead and there is a mountain range in front of you. Also turning eastward populations just followed the plains and then farther ahead bump into high elevation again stop, and the “Marroquíes Bajos “ stood there where Jaen is today. Turning south, there is a narrow mountains passage and you end up in Los Millares back in the Mediterranean Sea. Great place to be defended. From land they can only came from one place. Those guys must have had a lot on their hands inferred by how keen they were of defense walls. Those walls were just meant to push away the incoming populations that were being pump out of North Africa by the Desertification and arising of the new Sahara Desert. Those were probably really pump up (pun intended), stressed and not at all in a chatting mood. I imagine that this 3 have a story of their own."

Nobody wants to or has probably ever fully read that, I don’t get why you don’t use bullet points. Shulaveri is the hypothesis of Max Planck it seems, so it would be good to see why you think that without having to read all that narrative.
 
What was remarkable about BB in Portugal, for instance in Leceia fortress, is that the BB huts remained BB for over 200 years and huts hundreds of meters, meters, remained non Bell beaker for all those years. Amazing. From Hut FM to Hut 3, the pottery remained differentiated for ages. They never mixed Generation after generation.

... Those guys in the huts above, just started to move into the rest of europe and mixed with lots of exogenous females. That is why you have that admix for L151, because look at an hypometric map (go to google and choose terrain), both the outgoing into CWC land and the later Incoming into Iberia, because of terrain, both went by that route. if that L151 has no steppe, then it was the outgoing from Iberia.
But why would they have stayed in one place and kept themselves completely to themselves for ages, and then suddenly spread all over the continent mating with everyone? This looks to me the equivalent of the Steppe hypothesis, in which the 'pure' Steppe people remained in-bred and hermetically-sealed in the Steppe for ages, before suddenly bursting out and admixing with every woman across Europe.

I suspect it more likely that early L51 people were adventurous in much the same way as their Bell Beaker descendants were.
 
How did you reach the conclusion of point 1? I pretty much agree with the rest though.

The autosomal best-fit for both Bell Beaker and Corded Ware is a Steppe-heavy variety of East Balkan Chalcolithic/Suvorovo admixture.
Corded Ware looks like the Novodanilovka section that retreated to Eastern Ukraine. Bell Beaker looks like the section that remained in East Central Europe.

Phenotypically, R1a CWC is probably going to look more Nordic than R1b BB, as its yDNA phylogeny and autosomal components suggest a more northerly origin zone for it than is the case for R1b, before the two came together within Khvalynsk.
 
Some statistics on German Corded Ware autosomal components:

Relative standard deviations- EHG 0.2, EEF/NW Anatolian 0.36, CHG 0.61, WHG 0.8
Correlation coefficients - WHG/EEF 0.46, CHG/EEF 0.02, CHG/WHG -0.05, EEF/CHG -0.64, EEF/EHG -0.65, WHG/EHG -0.87

(RSD can indicate overall age, correlations can indicate the age of individual mixes)

A little complex to interpret, but these results probably look most consistent with the following development pattern in German Corded Ware populations -
Earliest core population - EHG/EEF admixture
Secondary development - addition of CHG
Tertiary development - addition of a EEF/WHG admixture with a CHG infusion into the WHG

The cultures that best fit this pattern are:
Initial core - Bulgarian Chalcolithic (Steppe/Suvorovo-enhanced)
Secondary addition - North East Ukraine (some admixture with an intermediate Khvalynsk-Yamnayan people)
Tertiary addition - North West Ukraine (some admixture with a Trypillian-like people)
 
Yes.
The 12% of Portuguese that are M269 x p312 is absolute. Because relative to only the r1bs existing in Portugal would be something like 20%.
So, how it looks relatively compare to the others.. . Will run it tomorrow.

without aswer immediately to the question of succession of SNP's and the possible trails of diffusion (unsteady ground for more than a cause), I answer you here:
where did you find Portugal current pop has 20% of relative pre-P312 (pre-S116)? it's enormous.
Maciamo and other studies converge to a 56% of total Y-R1b in Portugal.
a survey about Basques and other Iberians and French Bretons and Irish people found already 50,9 % (absolute) of S116;
applying 20% it would give 50,9 x 5 / 4 = 63,60 % of total R1b absolute %, what is too much compared to reality of 56%; the real % is around 12% of relative % to total R1b, so in absolute, only 12 x 56 / 100 = 6,72%
So I wonder if you don't confuse the relative % with the absolute one (the big question of maps picked in surveys were it's not precised, very often).
 
I'm sorry to be so trivial but a male biased colonisation in foreign lands with total exogamy give only 3,125% remaining from original auDNA after 5 generations, as a mean. It's an example, surely the total exogamy did not occur at every generation but it shows how quick the changes can go.
What I see when looking at PCA's is the BB's were spred very broadly between Iberia, C-S-E Europe and N-E Europe of today, so Chalco-Bronze of Iberia, Bronze of Balkans and CWC and all the between pops, roughly said.
An interesting topic about diverse BB's pops is on Eurogenes blog, I think.
 
But why would they have stayed in one place and kept themselves completely to themselves for ages, and then suddenly spread all over the continent mating with everyone? This looks to me the equivalent of the Steppe hypothesis, in which the 'pure' Steppe people remained in-bred and hermetically-sealed in the Steppe for ages, before suddenly bursting out and admixing with every woman across Europe.

I suspect it more likely that early L51 people were adventurous in much the same way as their Bell Beaker descendants were.

Steppe is supposed to be EHG + CHG ( with clear WHG + ANE + EEF + Iran_Neo ancestry ). How are they supposed to be inbred?
 
But why would they have stayed in one place and kept themselves completely to themselves for ages, and then suddenly spread all over the continent mating with everyone? This looks to me the equivalent of the Steppe hypothesis, in which the 'pure' Steppe people remained in-bred and hermetically-sealed in the Steppe for ages, before suddenly bursting out and admixing with every woman across Europe.

I suspect it more likely that early L51 people were adventurous in much the same way as their Bell Beaker descendants were.

Well, does it not seem that way from the phylogeny? L51+ only rapidly expands when Corded Ware arrives at the Rhine and seemingly triggers the massive expansion of the BB culture from West-Central Europe. Before that expansion period, it was very unsuccessful, so they clearly weren't admixing with many women.
 

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