The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

[Olympus Mons]

But why would they have stayed in one place and kept themselves completely to themselves for ages, and then suddenly spread all over the continent mating with everyone?

Why they mate with everybody I dont know. Usually it means Males moving to new land.
Why they left I also dont know. But I do know that there was a "war" between 3300-2800BC in Iberia, because there is no other reason to build from the start those fortified settlements and invest for so long in reinforcing those walls. - So, anyone is looking for a culture or mitologie of male warriors with daggers , bows and arrows.... yes, Iberia (Portugal) where Bell beakers seem to have appear first and foremost, for sure is a darn good place!

The end of fortified settlements, ie people started to move again to open settlements, coincides with the start of the spread of bell beaker culture. Correlation is not causation - But is better than non correlation.

 

[Olympus Mons]

Nobody wants to or has probably ever fully read that, I don’t get why you don’t use bullet points. Shulaveri is the hypothesis of Max Planck it seems, so it would be good to see why you think that without having to read all that narrative.

If you cant even read the version for dummies, in maps with arrows, i have pointed you to more than once...!!! https://shulaverianhypothesis.blogs.sapo.pt/

Than, Jesus H Christ!!!! -- WTF??

 

[Olympus Mons]

.... Shulaveri is
the hypothesis of Max Planck it seems, so it would be good to see why you think that without having to read all that narrative.

Shulaverian Hypothesis is mine, therefore MPI-SHH can go to hell because not long ago they were spreading Steppe hypothesis, to be clear Yamnaya, as much as the reich lab was!

Lets see how long reich and broad Institute will take to shift from Northwestern Iran to south caucasus and Shulaveri proper.

 

[Olympus Mons]

without aswer immediately to the question of succession of SNP's and the possible trails of diffusion (unsteady ground for more than a cause), I answer you here:
where did you find Portugal current pop has 20% of relative pre-P312 (pre-S116)? it's enormous.
Maciamo and other studies converge to a 56% of total Y-R1b in Portugal.
a survey about Basques and other Iberians and French Bretons and Irish people found already 50,9 % (absolute) of S116;
applying 20% it would give 50,9 x 5 / 4 = 63,60 % of total R1b absolute %, what is too much compared to reality of 56%; the real % is around 12% of relative % to total R1b, so in absolute, only 12 x 56 / 100 = 6,72%
So I wonder if you don't confuse the relative % with the absolute one (the big question of maps picked in surveys were it's not precised, very often).

the spanish study of Neus Solé-Morata 2017 of Barcelona University is an over 3000 people samples work of iberian Dna.
regarding Portugal, it shows: 37% is other haplogroups and 62.4% is R1b. then breaks the r1b as:
62% as M269 out of which 50% is P312 out of which 40% is DF27 and so forth.

So, make what you which of it...all I said is the P312 that are not DF27 are at par with the rest of IBeria. But the M269 that is not P312 is completely out of context in Iberia and only parallel to Nor-par-de calais and Alsace in france. - At a minimum its really weird for a east to west entry of R1b into Iberia, wouldn't you say so?



Secondly, Alsace is also on the same path as that Bell Beaker R1b- L151 with no steppe at Haute-Savoie, France. Just making a correlation. Look at an Hypsometric (terrain) map on google and its easy to see the Mountains path that population follow to travel.

 

[Olympus Mons]

https://www.academia.edu/38220415/F...in_the_light_of_the_Archaeogenetic_Revolution


Its really funny, how they all change azimut so easily....
seeing John Koch making presentations with:
working hypothesis
PIE was south of the Caucasus


Lindo.

 

[MOESAN]

the spanish study of Neus Solé-Morata 2017 of Barcelona University is an over 3000 people samples work of iberian Dna.
regarding Portugal, it shows: 37% is other haplogroups and 62.4% is R1b. then breaks the r1b as:
62% as M269 out of which 50% is P312 out of which 40% is DF27 and so forth.


So, make what you which of it...all I said is the P312 that are not DF27 are at par with the rest of IBeria. But the M269 that is not P312 is completely out of context in Iberia and only parallel to Nor-par-de calais and Alsace in france. - At a minimum its really weird for a east to west entry of R1b into Iberia, wouldn't you say so?



Secondly, Alsace is also on the same path as that Bell Beaker R1b- L151 with no steppe at Haute-Savoie, France. Just making a correlation. Look at an Hypsometric (terrain) map on google and its easy to see the Mountains path that population follow to travel.

Thanks, it seems better than the survey I referred to which spoke about one thousand people or not very much (concerning Iberia). Did your survey study French people too?
Because for I know all the surveys about France are old, and a lot of subclades had not been broken down. So if we want to compare what is comparable...
concerning highlands, yes very often BB crossed mountains and settled on uplands but they also settled seashores places; my impression, concerning PLAIN BB period, what is not the beginning and source, is that they occupied on one side mountainous regions maybe because they provide metals ores, and on another side, rivers and accessible shores surely for trade (network).
Concerning Southern Iberia, it seems the first huge fortresses were built since the Los Millares culture, beginning at 3000 BC or close, end about the 2200 BC; BB people seem appearing only at the very end there if not just after, so they were not the first cause of the decline of Los Millares which seems a society with collective tombs under tholos.
In subsequent El Argar culture, it seems more than an ethny was at work, or at least there were diverse modes of sepulture, two of them individual, the very new element.
It's why I would be glad to know which Y-haplo bearer was found under every kind of sepulture at Bronze Age and at what PRECISE time. But for this last point Radiocarbon is no so precise helas.
You know I'm rather for a central path for the most of Y-R1b L51, but it's only a first choice, I don't definetly exclude other way, at least for some groups of L51.
BB is a so special thing... and when we see proved Celtic speakers in the Tartessian territory spite Tartessian is a different language.
I 'll try to download the study you mention above, it interests me. Sorry if I pass for a destroyer more than a builder. Boa noite.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Shulaverian Hypothesis is mine, therefore MPI-SHH can go to hell because not long ago they were spreading Steppe hypothesis, to be clear Yamnaya, as much as the reich lab was!

Lets see how long reich and broad Institute will take to shift from Northwestern Iran to south caucasus and Shulaveri proper.

This isn't about "owning" a hypothesis, and besides it looks like you've recently adopted the view of an ultimate Balkan origin followed by a migration to the Caucasus just like I proposed. But it doesn't matter anyway, let's just wait and see what archaeogenetics brings.

 

[Olympus Mons]

MOESAN
Boa noite.
This PCA from the study. POR is Portugal and cluesters to non-Iberian.
View attachment 10649

For france they report about 600 samples.

Alsace	FR	80
Nord-Pas-de-Calais	FR	68
Île-de-France	FR	91
Midi-Pyrénées	FR	67
Brittany	FR	145
Auvergne	FR	89
Provence–Alpes-Côte d’Azur	FR	45
Pyrenees	FR	46

 

[Olympus Mons]

This isn't about "owning" a hypothesis

Oh yes it is. Shulaverian hypothesis, is born and raised in my mind, against all odds, and I took too much BS, offence and put down from too many people for, if it is proven right, me not getting the full load of credit.

, and besides it looks like you've recently adopted the view of an ultimate Balkan origin followed by a migration to the Caucasus just like I proposed. But it doesn't matter anyway, let's just wait and see what archaeogenetics brings.

If you go to my runmymouth blog (Kickedoutdogs) I started detailing the migration to the north caucasus after 4900bc in summer 2016 so not really recent. The same for the incoming population (forefathers of Shulaveri) from the Balkans after reading Conoly et al 2012 about incoming pastoral populations during 7 millenium BC as far into near east as Hogoshim in Israel. So, summer 2016 (and I figure that out earlier) is not "recent" by any stretch of the imagination. And earlier to all that, endless comments on Eurogenes, obviously.

Note: When, and its all about when, not where, do you "propose" that migration occur and in what archeological context?

 

[Pip]

Steppe is supposed to be EHG + CHG ( with clear WHG + ANE + EEF + Iran_Neo ancestry ). How are they supposed to be inbred?

By inbred, I meant the idea that they only ever bred in the Steppe, and that none of their DNA ever leaked South of the Caucasus or West of the Steppe until the third millennium BC, when they suddenly spread everywhere, mating with everyone they came across. This abrupt change in behaviour that some claim occurred does not seem credible to me. Indeed, when I've mentioned the variety in DNA from the Steppe, with high WHG in some parts, people have told me that this was not real Steppe DNA.

 

[Pip]

I'm sorry to be so trivial but a male biased colonisation in foreign lands with total exogamy give only 3,125% remaining from original auDNA after 5 generations, as a mean. It's an example, surely the total exogamy did not occur at every generation but it shows how quick the changes can go.
What I see when looking at PCA's is the BB's were spred very broadly between Iberia, C-S-E Europe and N-E Europe of today, so Chalco-Bronze of Iberia, Bronze of Balkans and CWC and all the between pops, roughly said.
An interesting topic about diverse BB's pops is on Eurogenes blog, I think.

Total exogamy over 5 generations would be extremely unlikely. This would mean all the female offspring in each generation being completely discarded by the men in favour of strangers. Surely the daughters resulting from admixture would themselves have children, spreading the DNA they inherited from their fathers. I cannot see the fathers' autosomal DNA dwindling to nothing in the communities that they joined.

 

[Pip]

Well, does it not seem that way from the phylogeny? L51+ only rapidly expands when Corded Ware arrives at the Rhine and seemingly triggers the massive expansion of the BB culture from West-Central Europe. Before that expansion period, it was very unsuccessful, so they clearly weren't admixing with many women.

The phylogeny only looks at the extant lineages. L51 might have been unsuccessful before its expansion period, but this doesn't mean they didn't try or were sedentary. We don't know if they admixed, as nearly all of their lines died off.

 

[Olympus Mons]

By inbred, I meant the idea that they only ever bred in the Steppe, and that none of their DNA ever leaked South of the Caucasus or West of the Steppe until the third millennium BC, when they suddenly spread everywhere, mating with everyone they came across. This abrupt change in behaviour that some claim occurred does not seem credible to me. Indeed, when I've mentioned the variety in DNA from the Steppe, with high WHG in some parts, people have told me that this was not real Steppe DNA.

Pip, Have you ever looked into a climatic map of the holocene?
This spread of mating males always seemed to be occurring after the cataclysm events of climatic freezing periods. after 8.2Kiloyear event we see a the longest climatic optimum of the all holocene and the spread of G2a agriculturalist, after the 5.9kiloyear event it followed a long period where all Y haplogroups seem to resurge or equalize maybe be better put (I, G, J, R1b) in the archaeogenetics record,... then by 2800bc it starts the second climatic optimum of the holocene and we see Bell beakers, CWC, etc spreading until 1800BC where R1b-L51 spreads. actually in 1800 starts a deep cold spell, when another cold period starts, then later a small warm peak at 1000bc and you start to see the Celtic movements for instance, followed by a sharp and deep cold (iron age) to see a brutal hot peak at the roman optimum.

So, people movements are triggered by this huge shifts in climatic oscillations and lots of people die in the cold brutal spells, and upon the recovery to warm periods new male dominance are shown on records but it does not mean they just start to kill and rape to be fair. It means that warm period is a time of rebirth and new people, concepts and cultural baggage is redesigned and that can bring an overrepresentation of some male haplogroups.

 

[Pip]

Why they mate with everybody I dont know. Usually it means Males moving to new land.
Why they left I also dont know. But I do know that there was a "war" between 3300-2800BC in Iberia, because there is no other reason to build from the start those fortified settlements and invest for so long in reinforcing those walls. - So, anyone is looking for a culture or mitologie of male warriors with daggers , bows and arrows.... yes, Iberia (Portugal) where Bell beakers seem to have appear first and foremost, for sure is a darn good place!

The end of fortified settlements, ie people started to move again to open settlements, coincides with the start of the spread of bell beaker culture. Correlation is not causation - But is better than non correlation.

If the Bell Beaker people were stayers, I believe it likely that war would have made them move to one place and stay in one place. I see R1b Bell Beaker at least as wanderers and adventurers - probably before Bell Beaker, as well as during the Bell Beaker period.

 

[Pip]

the spanish study of Neus Solé-Morata 2017 of Barcelona University is an over 3000 people samples work of iberian Dna.
regarding Portugal, it shows: 37% is other haplogroups and 62.4% is R1b. then breaks the r1b as:
62% as M269 out of which 50% is P312 out of which 40% is DF27 and so forth.

So, make what you which of it...all I said is the P312 that are not DF27 are at par with the rest of IBeria. But the M269 that is not P312 is completely out of context in Iberia and only parallel to Nor-par-de calais and Alsace in france. - At a minimum its really weird for a east to west entry of R1b into Iberia, wouldn't you say so?



Secondly, Alsace is also on the same path as that Bell Beaker R1b- L151 with no steppe at Haute-Savoie, France. Just making a correlation. Look at an Hypsometric (terrain) map on google and its easy to see the Mountains path that population follow to travel.

Nord-Pas De Calais and Alsace are exactly the coalescence points estimated for L51 from modern data.

What I would like to know is, if there is so much M269xP312 in Portugal, which specific subclades of M269 does it represent? Just saying that it is not P312 is not particularly useful.

 

[Olympus Mons]

If the Bell Beaker people were stayers, I believe it likely that war would have made them move to one place and stay in one place. I see R1b Bell Beaker at least as wanderers and adventurers - probably before Bell Beaker, as well as during the Bell Beaker period.

See my previous comment to you. But irrespective of climate and war (dont think anyone was good at killing back then), is clear that in iberia there was a time of fortified settlements and there was a culture of "copos" (beakers) and long useless blades that correspond to the that fortified period. Then by 2800BC bell beaker pottery starts to appear in that same region. from copos to bell beakers is a tiny step! and Nobody did any harm to that bell beaker people. Actually they lived side by side with non bell beakers "acacia" without any sign of violence or mixing. So that warrior people did not look at bell beakers as exogenous people to them. Its hard to accept that people that made thick walls and killed people at their footsteps would accept villages full of bell beakers meters, just meters, away from their walls!

 

[Pip]

Pip, Have you ever looked into a climatic map of the holocene?
This spread of mating males always seemed to be occurring after the cataclysm events of climatic freezing periods. after 8.2Kiloyear event we see a the longest climatic optimum of the all holocene and the spread of G2a agriculturalist, after the 5.9kiloyear event it followed a long period where all Y haplogroups seem to resurge or equalize maybe be better put (I, G, J, R1b) in the archaeogenetics record,... then by 2800bc it starts the second climatic optimum of the holocene and we see Bell beakers, CWC, etc spreading until 1800BC where R1b-L51 spreads. actually in 1800 starts a deep cold spell, when another cold period starts, then later a small warm peak at 1000bc and you start to see the Celtic movements for instance, followed by a sharp and deep cold (iron age) to see a brutal hot peak at the roman optimum.

So, people movements are triggered by this huge shifts in climatic oscillations and lots of people die in the cold brutal spells, and upon the recovery to warm periods new male dominance are shown on records but it does not mean they just start to kill and rape to be fair. It means that warm period is a time of rebirth and new people, concepts and cultural baggage is redesigned and that can bring an overrepresentation of some male haplogroups.

Agreed. I just see the predominant culture within L51 people as having generally been an adventurous, wandering one. These are the types of people who might have struggled in relatively stable periods and sometimes thrived in periods of crisis. Their mentality probably remained pretty much the same throughout both.

 

[Olympus Mons]

Nord-Pas De Calais and Alsace are exactly the coalescence points estimated for L51 from modern data.

What I would like to know is, if there is so much M269xP312 in Portugal, which specific subclades of M269 does it represent? Just saying that it is not P312 is not particularly useful.

Exactly. That is what is so upsetting about these studies! from M269 to P312 can be several things. however, one can infer that it can only be L51 (and L151) or on the other hand S21! what else???
And having that a high percentage of S21 in Portugal also does not add up!

 

[Pip]

See my previous comment to you. But irrespective of climate and war (dont think anyone was good at killing back then), is clear that in iberia there was a time of fortified settlements and there was a culture of "copos" (beakers) and long useless blades that correspond to the that fortified period. Then by 2800BC bell beaker pottery starts to appear in that same region. from copos to bell beakers is a tiny step! and Nobody did any harm to that bell beaker people. Actually they lived side by side with non bell beakers "acacia" without any sign of violence or mixing. So that warrior people did not look at bell beakers as exogenous people to them. Its hard to accept that people that made thick walls and killed people at their footsteps would accept villages full of bell beakers meters, just meters, away from their walls!

Yes, but were these the same Beaker people who spread extensively across Western and Central Europe? L51 might have been people to the North who appropriated the Beaker culture. This is what we need to establish from looking at the DNA.

 

[Olympus Mons]

Yes, but were these the same Beaker people who spread extensively across Western and Central Europe? L51 might have been people to the North who appropriated the Beaker culture. This is what we need to establish from looking at the DNA.

correct. But do not assume we have Dna from the Beaker, copos, long blades, copper smelt and ivory v buttons from Portugal. so we do not know who they were in Zambujal and Vnsp.
Zambujal gives no real hope. - Torres vedras area has thousands of years of agriculture on top so all archeological records are gone (its called the barn of lisbon). But VNSP is completely raw and previous works have not reach the inhumations levels even. So hope still exists to find much more around it.... if only they pay the 200 euros a month to the freaking woman owner of it and just start digging!!!!! aarrggh.