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Thread: The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    Two words: metallurgical elite. Check out Los Millares for one example: the society was organised by caste, and was warlike with the earliest Western European metallurgy (which MUST have spread to Los Millares via the Mediterranean as Los Millares is in SOUTHERN Iberia after all). It could easily be the case that the L51 Beaker folk are hiding in Iberia somewhere, and the phylogeny of L51 seems to suggest it.
    I can see a little data suggesting that Los Millares could possibly be an intrusive branch of I2a1 that spread down Mediterranean Spain from an origin point further North. I suppose it's possible that some L51 could have been within it.

    I would be interested if you would clarify why you think L51 phylogeny suggests a period in Iberia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by markod View Post
    I think we do - 3 male samples from the Blätterhöhle site. According to Genetiker they're 2x R1b-V88 and 1x I2a-L880 (the latter is if amateurs are to be believed specific to Northern France, I'm not sure how true this is though).
    Is Blätterhöhle clearly Michelsberg-related?
    There were plenty of V88s in the Steppe along with R1b-M269, but the Blätterhöhle samples are not of the same basal subclades and they do not look Steppe-infused autosomally. They look to be from a shrivelled lineage, and I don't think we can say very much about them.
    The L880 is more interesting, as it clearly coalesces to Northern France and appears very diverse (long-lived) there. It is not the same branch of I2a1 that pops up in Southern Europe during the Chalcolithic, but I see much of I2a as stemming from the same area around the Rhine.

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    2 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I can see a little data suggesting that Los Millares could possibly be an intrusive branch of I2a1 that spread down Mediterranean Spain from an origin point further North. I suppose it's possible that some L51 could have been within it.

    I would be interested if you would clarify why you think L51 phylogeny suggests a period in Iberia.
    The phylogeny points broadly to North of the West Med. (as I'll explain), but I associate it with Los Millares as that matches the profile we know from the Central Beakers perfectly (warlike, metallurgical (first in W. Europe), caste-like elite, that also was part of the Bell Beaker phenomenon later on).

    So (I'm posting it as I've written it up twice on anthrogenica, just because so many get confused by it it seems):The first subclade to break away from L51 not related to L52, Z2118, dates back to only 400 years after the formation of L51 (5700 years ago, so well before the migrational period of L51 Beaker folk across Western and Central Europe). The men with this subclade, in modern times, are distributed mostly around Southern France and the Rhône region. Why is that the case, if not for that general area being L51's homeland? Why, during the great Beaker migrational period, would already differentiated Z2118 men "choose" to migrate to Southern France and not throughout the rest of Western and Central Europe? It would be like time-travelling to just before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk, marking those carriers of the subclade Z2118, and seeing that the vast majority migrated to that region North of the West Med. - that is ridiculously unlikely!

    An Eastern European origin of L51 would require those with branches that split at an earlier date before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk (i.e. Z2118) to have preferentially, for some reason, migrated to the vicinity of the South of France, and not elsewhere, DESPITE having been present at the earliest stages in L51's Urheimat. It would be like travelling back in time to just before the supposed great migration of L51 Westwards from E. Europe, marking those who carried this haplogroup, and seeing that the vast majority of them ended up in Southern France and the areas nearby and not so much elsewhere. There IS no reason for that, there can't be!

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    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    Well, it seems that people on anthrogenica don’t just get confused by it - they get offended by it! I literally got banned for challenging L51’s “right” to be originally Indo-European and from the Steppe.

    Relevant thread: https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....nd-Ancient-DNA

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    Well, it seems that people on anthrogenica don’t just get confused by it - they get offended by it! I literally got banned for challenging L51’s “right” to be originally Indo-European and from the Steppe.

    Relevant thread: https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....nd-Ancient-DNA
    LOL. Yes amazing. It took me an afternoon to get banned.

    Did someone provoke you and when you reply in kind got banned?

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    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
    I think both of you are obviously banned everywhere because the way you are presenting things makes you look like people with an Agenda. Why is Olympus Mons so obsessed with L23 and Shulaveri-Shomu, why are you so obsessed with L23, Z2103 and L51 from Armenia and L51 going to Iberia with a Maritime roads. But you are not banned for your particular ideas, but because you are constantly flooding those into threads. People have read them already years ago, they have heard you. Now you can chill and wait for your providential future papers if they came once and not flood those ideas eternally.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    I think both of you are obviously banned everywhere because the way you are presenting things makes you look like people with an Agenda. Why is Olympus Mons so obsessed with L23 and Shulaveri-Shomu, why are you so obsessed with L23, Z2103 and L51 from Armenia and L51 going to Iberia with a Maritime roads. But you are not banned for your particular ideas, but because you are constantly flooding those into threads. People have read them already years ago, they have heard you. Now you can chill and wait for your providential future papers if they came once and not flood those ideas eternally.
    Halfalp... You do realize that if I say I got banned the first few hours I couldn't have possible flood anyone with anything. That is a reasoning process a child could do. That is called thinking before you speak/post.

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    3 out of 4 members found this post helpful.
    They don't want to consider ToBeOrNotToBe's theory because they're all L51 descended and still want to be considered "Aryan Conquerors". The point is, the modern descendants of the heavily bottlenecked L51 is descended from one man who could have lived ANYWHERE and spoken and spoken any language. Though probably not Chinese or Elamite, though. Their line did spread the western Indo-European languages, but whether it was there at the beginning is another thing.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Olympus Mons View Post
    Halfalp... You do realize that if I say I got banned the first few hours I couldn't have possible flood anyone with anything. That is a reasoning process a child could do. That is called thinking before you speak/post.
    I think you didn't process at all, it's been years you flood Anthrogenica and Eurogenes with your Shulaveri-Shomu.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Indeed, once a SNP forms, it automatically becomes a bottleneck which can broaden out as its various forms emerge. Of course, a 50 year bottleneck is so short that it is misleading to refer to it as such; whereas a 900 year bottleneck in which 12 separate SNPs are ubiquitous to all samples is striking, and suggests a barely-surviving tightly-localised population.
    Given the data I have analysed, my best estimate currently is that Z2103 formed in or near the Pontic Steppe and then spread out, with its surviving basal branches only fully forming in East Central Europe and in the Caucasus.
    yes
    but that persons ancestors would have had that SNP as a negative first
    có che un pòpoło no 'l defende pi ła só łéngua el xe prónto par èser s'ciavo

    when a people no longer dares to defend its language it is ripe for slavery.

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    I think you didn't process at all, it's been years you flood Anthrogenica and Eurogenes with your Shulaveri-Shomu.
    Precision matters! Facts matter. I got banned from Anthrogenica immediately.
    I posted in Eurogenes for years, having fun because that is what eurogenes is. A fun house that turned into a echo Chamber.

    Lets go back to ignore each other - Have fun.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    The phylogeny points broadly to North of the West Med. (as I'll explain), but I associate it with Los Millares as that matches the profile we know from the Central Beakers perfectly (warlike, metallurgical (first in W. Europe), caste-like elite, that also was part of the Bell Beaker phenomenon later on).

    So (I'm posting it as I've written it up twice on anthrogenica, just because so many get confused by it it seems):The first subclade to break away from L51 not related to L52, Z2118, dates back to only 400 years after the formation of L51 (5700 years ago, so well before the migrational period of L51 Beaker folk across Western and Central Europe). The men with this subclade, in modern times, are distributed mostly around Southern France and the Rhône region. Why is that the case, if not for that general area being L51's homeland? Why, during the great Beaker migrational period, would already differentiated Z2118 men "choose" to migrate to Southern France and not throughout the rest of Western and Central Europe? It would be like time-travelling to just before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk, marking those carriers of the subclade Z2118, and seeing that the vast majority migrated to that region North of the West Med. - that is ridiculously unlikely!

    An Eastern European origin of L51 would require those with branches that split at an earlier date before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk (i.e. Z2118) to have preferentially, for some reason, migrated to the vicinity of the South of France, and not elsewhere, DESPITE having been present at the earliest stages in L51's Urheimat. It would be like travelling back in time to just before the supposed great migration of L51 Westwards from E. Europe, marking those who carried this haplogroup, and seeing that the vast majority of them ended up in Southern France and the areas nearby and not so much elsewhere. There IS no reason for that, there can't be!
    Have you ever heard of tribes, "clans" and subsets of clans ? And of chance/mischance acting upon small numbers?
    So your proof is not a proof, only a possibility to take in account... your reasoning is not wrong, but it is not sufficient.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    Well, it seems that people on anthrogenica don’t just get confused by it - they get offended by it! I literally got banned for challenging L51’s “right” to be originally Indo-European and from the Steppe.

    Relevant thread: https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....nd-Ancient-DNA
    Irrespective of what the early L51 population's language was, I think the it's the now more or less unavoidable conclusion regarding late linguistic change doesn't sit well with people. Those early western European Beakers certainly look like what we think of as 'Celtic' genetically, it's just extremely unlikely that they actually spoke Celtic languages. It's possible that the Celtic dialects replaced older Indo-European languages in Western Europe of course.

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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    I read Anthrogenica but I don't write there, is a loss of time, it's full of steppe cult members, it's like discussing with a sect. The usual procedure is someone that is not a believer exposes his ideas and the flaws about the steppe theory, sometimes with very good reasoning. In almost all cases once the cult members can't support to see their king naked they start to provoke or bulling the outsider, if he goes to the same level he is quickly reported by the cult members and ciao.
    "What I've seen so far after my entire career chasing Indoeuropeans is that our solutions look tissue thin and our problems still look monumental" J.P.Mallory

    "The ultimate homeland of the group [PIE] that also spread Anatolian languages is less clear." D. Reich

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    2 out of 3 members found this post helpful.
    Last month I noticed Kurd himself was banned. I had to rub my eyes and double check to make sure I wasn't seeing things bc it was totally not something I would expect to see. He's brilliant, well educated, unbiased and kind, what more could you want in a forum member?
    mmmmmmmmmm doughnuuuuutz

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    3. In particular, given that (i) almost all Yamnayan samples are from a different yDNA group (R1b-Z2103) and bear only a 65% match to the North Ukrainian and German Corded Ware samples, and (ii) Yamnaya only arose circa 3,300 BC (700 years after the closely-matching Ukrainian M417 man lived), is there any reason to think that German Corded Ware was derived from Yamnayan admixture to any significant degree, rather than by direct descendance from the community in North Ukraine in which the 4.000 BC M417 man lived?
    That's interesting for me, because I can see my way of reasoning differs quite a lot from yours and that of other people. In my opinion, a calculated result of 96% of similarity between a R1a-M417 CWC individual dated to ~2500 B.C. in Germany and a R1a-M47 ~4000 B.C. sample in North Ukraine should raise a red flag because it's just possible, but unlikely and not that plausible especially considering the archaeological evidence that that was not an established culture with a fantastic population continuity, but rather a "new" and very expansionist culture that spread through previously settled territories and had its origins (as far as German CWC is concerned) nearly 1000km away - and all of that is assuming that they'd have mixed with no population along the way since the beginning of CWC (~2900 B.C.) and that they would've remained totally untainted by the Yamnaya expansion (~3.300 B.C. onwards) and by any earlier migration and admixture event from ~4000 B.C. to ~2900 B.C. I will accept those results if they end up being correct, but it'll be a big surprise for me from a linguistic (CWC IE branches supposedly much more divergent from other IE branches than previously thought, with the split dating to before 4000 B.C.) and archaeological point of view, and even from my own common sense. But for now I think a~65% match of Yamnaya looks much more reasonable at first sight, especially if you consider the possibility that the root of CWC was itself just a Yamnaya-ized and thus probably Yamnaya-admixed Sredny Stog population (and, as Dereivka shows, Sredny Stog already had at least some groups with a higher percentage of EEF ancestry).

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I suppose the best identification for the culture would be Suvorovo-Novodanilovka, of which there are many sites. As far as I know, for whatever reason, the only DNA sampling done on them is two mtDNA identifications at one site. I'll leave it for others to distinguish between Suvorovo, Sredny Stog, Yamnaya and Cucuteni cultures. More interesting to me is the implied dating and the genetics.
    But Suvorovo-Novodanilovka settlements have always been understood by archaeologists as intrusive (and accompanied by contemporaneous signs of widespread destruction and sociocultural rupture, with abandonment of tell settlements and other evidences of displacement/depopulation) in the Balkans, wasn't it? The traditional understanding of the culture's original movement would also fit with the gradual growth of steppe ancestry in the Balkans even during the Late Neolithic and Early Chalcolithic (the Varna outliers amidst the average Varna EEF individuals, and seemingly steppe-derived imports even before Suvorovo indicate that east-west movements already happened), as well as explain the particular "archaeological circumstances" in which Suvorovo sites appear in the Balkans, which arguably smell of invasion or a sudden and disruptive migration. As for your last point, I'll only say that genetics is awesome, but without archaeology, linguistics and other sources of knowledge the interpretation of the myriad of genetic data can become quite troublesome and even misleading.

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    Quote Originally Posted by berun View Post
    I read Anthrogenica but I don't write there, is a loss of time, it's full of steppe cult members, it's like discussing with a sect. The usual procedure is someone that is not a believer exposes his ideas and the flaws about the steppe theory, sometimes with very good reasoning. In almost all cases once the cult members can't support to see their king naked they start to provoke or bulling the outsider, if he goes to the same level he is quickly reported by the cult members and ciao.
    So you dont have any Cult yourself that's what you are saying? Or do you consider Steppe Cult as more damageable that your own one? Questions apart, Steppe Hypothesis have multiple flaws and everybody on Anthrogenica are aware of them and try to brainstorm the best fits to explain them. While you, you seem more obsessed by deconstruct everything related with Steppe instead of claiming some flaws. Perfect exemple, when the Chalcolithic paper came out, your first comment was something like " Blue Eyed people in prehistoric Levante, but where are IE peoples ". Also, you seems very naive when you say " a non believer expose his ideas about steppe hypothesis ", this might be how you idealise what science should be, but not what it might be. Do you think they gonna invite people in scientific conferences who thinks Egyptian Pyramids were built by Aliens because they are non believers to the traditionnals views? There is plenty of people a little bit excentred of the Steppe Hypothesis like Parasar that are not banned, because they are not considered as ******** a subject with ideas that dont have any scientific matter. As for Kurd being banned that sounds crazy, and i dont know anything about it. But at the same level, why Fair Haired and Tomenable were banned from Eupedia?

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Other cults I might think about, but for that of IE urheimat what I have are bets (Kievan Rus, Zagros, BB...), in fact even I get fun from steppe extremists when I recall those musculous warriors weaving their long blonde hair when driving golden chariots. For the blue eyes in Levant even I don't recall what are you saying, maybe you didn't got the irony behind. And come on, to ban someone saying IE were Atlanteans could be much or less accepted but we are speaking about discusding other alternatives, if someone don't like to know them simply ignores the poster and it's all, but there is a clear bulling attitude there to compel banning the outsider, they can't hear how naked is their king (R1b-Z2103 from Caucasus in Yamna, they expand to Central Europe as R1a, and thereafter they expand to Western Europe as R1b-L51 leaving their original culture for another, changing also the weapons used). And so on, just writing that I realize how can be critiziced other's thinkings about how IE developed.

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    Quote Originally Posted by berun View Post
    I read Anthrogenica but I don't write there, is a loss of time, it's full of steppe cult members, it's like discussing with a sect. The usual procedure is someone that is not a believer exposes his ideas and the flaws about the steppe theory, sometimes with very good reasoning. In almost all cases once the cult members can't support to see their king naked they start to provoke or bulling the outsider, if he goes to the same level he is quickly reported by the cult members and ciao.
    Hi Berun... and I thought the tricky was well played to me. I really do. :)
    I just posted first innocuously and Richard Rocca comes and is disrespectful, aggressive and even obnoxious. I didn't even respond in kind (I would though next) but challenge him ... and got immediately banned by another guy... My jaw just dropped, because I hadnt even got to the point of responding in the same level and terms as he had.

    First i thought we both would be banned... really naive of me.
    And to be fair, the distance between what they did at Anthro and somethings happening here at Eupedia is not that big. It exists, but is not that big as some here like to believe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron1981 View Post
    The L51+ bottleneck, if you will, could be due to the Yersinia pestis outbreak that caused the downfall of the Neolithic farming communities across Europe (including non agriculturalists like R1b). I don't see why it has anything to do with France, in fact, the data has shown L51+ is well distributed across Europe and isn't linked to any specific region. L11+/P312+/U106+ would all be post-plague and in north-central Europe.
    Are we sure Y-R1b-L51 knew a bottelneck phenomenon? What we a re sure is that it knew a founder effect, what doesn't everytime imply a previous bottelneck: only mutation a some stage (of L23 lineage here)... And some new discoveries in the northern southbaltic plain of Europe could provide us surprises.
    I agree with you at a global level (the "bottleneck" theory isn't yours seemingly; I have to date no opinion about its reality); Concerning Balkans for L51 I'm not sure, maybe rather NW Ukraine not too far from N-E Carpathians? only a bet for the game.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    The phylogeny points broadly to North of the West Med. (as I'll explain), but I associate it with Los Millares as that matches the profile we know from the Central Beakers perfectly (warlike, metallurgical (first in W. Europe), caste-like elite, that also was part of the Bell Beaker phenomenon later on).

    So (I'm posting it as I've written it up twice on anthrogenica, just because so many get confused by it it seems):The first subclade to break away from L51 not related to L52, Z2118, dates back to only 400 years after the formation of L51 (5700 years ago, so well before the migrational period of L51 Beaker folk across Western and Central Europe). The men with this subclade, in modern times, are distributed mostly around Southern France and the Rhône region. Why is that the case, if not for that general area being L51's homeland? Why, during the great Beaker migrational period, would already differentiated Z2118 men "choose" to migrate to Southern France and not throughout the rest of Western and Central Europe? It would be like time-travelling to just before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk, marking those carriers of the subclade Z2118, and seeing that the vast majority migrated to that region North of the West Med. - that is ridiculously unlikely!

    An Eastern European origin of L51 would require those with branches that split at an earlier date before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk (i.e. Z2118) to have preferentially, for some reason, migrated to the vicinity of the South of France, and not elsewhere, DESPITE having been present at the earliest stages in L51's Urheimat. It would be like travelling back in time to just before the supposed great migration of L51 Westwards from E. Europe, marking those who carried this haplogroup, and seeing that the vast majority of them ended up in Southern France and the areas nearby and not so much elsewhere. There IS no reason for that, there can't be!
    I have little doubt you are right, and that the phylogenic evidence clearly indicates the common ancestors of extant L51 most recently lived in Western Europe, most likely France. I am intrigued by the less clear issues of how, when and why they got there.

    There is some circumstantial yDNA, mtDNA and aDNA evidence pointing to possible associations with Southern Poland, Chalcolithic Bulgaria, Cucuteni Triploye, Globular Amphora and RRBP, so I feel the most likely route is mid/late millennium BC up Moldova and across Southern Poland and South/Central Germany; but I have not seen anything that looks conclusive.

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    Other than the French hotspot of L51, the track can be deduced by brother and uncle clades spanning with interesting frequencies in Albania or Italy, it's like a track of a migrating clan that I suppose were Neolithic herders coming from Anatolia.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    That's interesting for me, because I can see my way of reasoning differs quite a lot from yours and that of other people. In my opinion, a calculated result of 96% of similarity between a R1a-M417 CWC individual dated to ~2500 B.C. in Germany and a R1a-M47 ~4000 B.C. sample in North Ukraine should raise a red flag because it's just possible, but unlikely and not that plausible especially considering the archaeological evidence that that was not an established culture with a fantastic population continuity, but rather a "new" and very expansionist culture that spread through previously settled territories and had its origins (as far as German CWC is concerned) nearly 1000km away - and all of that is assuming that they'd have mixed with no population along the way since the beginning of CWC (~2900 B.C.) and that they would've remained totally untainted by the Yamnaya expansion (~3.300 B.C. onwards) and by any earlier migration and admixture event from ~4000 B.C. to ~2900 B.C. I will accept those results if they end up being correct, but it'll be a big surprise for me from a linguistic (CWC IE branches supposedly much more divergent from other IE branches than previously thought, with the split dating to before 4000 B.C.) and archaeological point of view, and even from my own common sense. But for now I think a~65% match of Yamnaya looks much more reasonable at first sight, especially if you consider the possibility that the root of CWC was itself just a Yamnaya-ized and thus probably Yamnaya-admixed Sredny Stog population (and, as Dereivka shows, Sredny Stog already had at least some groups with a higher percentage of EEF ancestry).
    I don't see any significant sign of Yamnayan admixture in core Corded Ware populations. Neither do I see much genetic input from core Sredy Stog, which was heavily WHG before it was largely replaced by Yamnaya, which itself withered a millennium or so later.

    Combining 65% Yamnaya and 35% Dereivka Sredny Stog gives a projected autosomal reading for German CW that has 20 times greater variance from actual CW than that projected by the best-fit combination. To me, this does not look like a very reasonable match.

    However, CW does not appear to have been totally untainted by Yamnaya at all. Its North Eastern corner shows strong signs of CW-Yamnaya admixture; and as this was the only CW population that appears to have thrived in Europe following Corded Ware's demise, I would say that the Yamnayan genetic footprint is probably greater in modern R1a-M417 populations than in most R1a-M417 CW populations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    But Suvorovo-Novodanilovka settlements have always been understood by archaeologists as intrusive (and accompanied by contemporaneous signs of widespread destruction and sociocultural rupture, with abandonment of tell settlements and other evidences of displacement/depopulation) in the Balkans, wasn't it? The traditional understanding of the culture's original movement would also fit with the gradual growth of steppe ancestry in the Balkans even during the Late Neolithic and Early Chalcolithic (the Varna outliers amidst the average Varna EEF individuals, and seemingly steppe-derived imports even before Suvorovo indicate that east-west movements already happened), as well as explain the particular "archaeological circumstances" in which Suvorovo sites appear in the Balkans, which arguably smell of invasion or a sudden and disruptive migration. As for your last point, I'll only say that genetics is awesome, but without archaeology, linguistics and other sources of knowledge the interpretation of the myriad of genetic data can become quite troublesome and even misleading.
    Yes, Suvorovo might well have been predominantly intrusive and invasive, but there are also some signs of collaboration and admixture (perhaps a bit like Vikings turning into Normans?). I would say Varna looks to have witnessed some of the first signs of Suvorovo, rather than a predecessor of it. After the collapses of the Balkan Neolithic, Suvorovo populations look to have taken away with them both some DNA and some of what they had learned from places they had 'invaded' - we know they migrated to Central Ukraine (where they would have look genetically rather like M417 Corded Ware) and probably through Moldova to the Upper Dniester (where, upon admixture with some Globular Amphora, they would have looked genetically rather like L51 Bell Beaker).

    Merging this analysis with what we think we know from archaeology, linguistics and other disciplines can sometimes assist, but can also sometimes muddy the clearer genetic waters.

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