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Thread: The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOESAN View Post
    Are we sure Y-R1b-L51 knew a bottelneck phenomenon? What we a re sure is that it knew a founder effect, what doesn't everytime imply a previous bottelneck: only mutation a some stage (of L23 lineage here)... And some new discoveries in the northern southbaltic plain of Europe could provide us surprises.
    I agree with you at a global level (the "bottleneck" theory isn't yours seemingly; I have to date no opinion about its reality); Concerning Balkans for L51 I'm not sure, maybe rather NW Ukraine not too far from N-E Carpathians? only a bet for the game.
    Extant L51 shows bottleneck signs now. It might not have been bottlenecked at the time; it might be that all the other strands of it died out some time later, but its absence from early archaeological samples and in matching archaeological aDNA would suggest a likely bottleneck at the time as well, I think.

    Extant L51's origin might well have been NE Carpathian, but if so - it looks like the East Balkan samples with Steppe DNA would likely have been close relations of it.

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    Y-DNA haplogroup
    R1b-U152-DF103
    MtDNA haplogroup
    H1bm

    Ethnic group
    Arvern
    Country: France



    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    L51 from France ??? Until 2600 BC, R1b is nowhere to be seen in western Europe, save a few outliers who had probably come along with the "farmers". After 2500 BC, they suddenly show up all over central and western Europe. Either L51 had been in Hungary since the old Suvorovo pocket for centuries, or they came along with Yamna Danube.

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I7041 / M
    Find location: Szigetszentmiklós-Üdülősor
    Country: Hungary
    Associated label in publication: Hungary_BA
    Date: 2500–2200 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): H1b1
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2 (L151)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)
    Comments: null
    Other references: null

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5666 / M
    Find location: Lochenice
    Country: Czech Republic
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2500–1900 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U4a2c
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5025, RISE567 / F
    Find location: Kněževes
    Country: Czech Republic
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2500–1900 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5b2c
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): null
    Reference: 1240k of shotgun data in AllentoftNature2015
    Colour group: Steppe (autosomal)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I6480 / M
    Find location: Velké Přílepy
    Country: Czech Republic
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2500–1900 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U4a2
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I7271 / M
    Find location: Brandýsek
    Country: Czech Republic
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2500–2200 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U4a2
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I7212 / M
    Find location: Radovesice
    Country: Czech Republic
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2500–2200 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): K1b1a1+199
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID: RISE564.SG
    Location: Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany
    Haplogroup name
    R1b1a1a2a1 (L51)

    Sample ID: I5529
    Location: Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Bavaria
    Haplogroup name
    R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I4132, RISE560 / M
    Find location: Augsburg Sportgelände, Augsburg, Bavaria
    Country: Germany
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2500–2000 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5a1a1
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2 (P312)
    Reference: 1240k of shotgun data in Allentoft Nature 2015
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5748 / M
    Find location: De Tuithoorn, Oostwoud, Noord-Holland
    Country: The Netherlands
    Associated label in publication: Beaker The Netherlands
    Date: 2579–2233 calBCE (3945±55 BP, GrN-6650C)
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): X2b4
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2 (P312)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5757 / M
    Find location: Sion-Petit-Chasseur, Dolmen XI
    Country: Switzerland
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
    Date: 2469–1984 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): H3af
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a (L151)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I2575 / M
    Find location: La Fare, Forcalquier
    Country: France
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Southern France
    Date: 2475–2210 calBCE (3895±40 BP, GrA-22988)
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): K1c1
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): no_data
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (autosomal)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I6472 / M
    Find location: La Magdalena, Madrid
    Country: Spain
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Iberia
    Date: 2500–2000 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): HV0b
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2 (M269)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I6588 / M
    Find location: Humanejos, Madrid
    Country: Spain
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Iberia
    Date: 2500–2000 BCE
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5b2b3
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a (L151)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

    Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5665 / M
    Find location: Virgazal, Tablada de Rudrón, Burgos
    Country: Spain
    Associated label in publication: Beaker Iberia
    Date: 2280–1984 calBCE (3730±40 BP, Poz-49174)
    MtDNA haplogroup (mother): K1a24a
    Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2 (P312)
    Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
    Colour group: Steppe (R1b)
    Comments: null
    Other references: null
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  3. #128
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    Quote Originally Posted by berun View Post
    Other than the French hotspot of L51, the track can be deduced by brother and uncle clades spanning with interesting frequencies in Albania or Italy, it's like a track of a migrating clan that I suppose were Neolithic herders coming from Anatolia.
    Possibly, although it seems to have too much EHG to have been a part of anything pre-Suvorovo, in my view.

    I tend not to look at frequencies, which can be misleadingly influenced by sudden population bursts, but more at phylogeny and intra-phylogenic diversity.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I have little doubt you are right, and that the phylogenic evidence clearly indicates the common ancestors of extant L51 most recently lived in Western Europe, most likely France. I am intrigued by the less clear issues of how, when and why they got there.

    There is some circumstantial yDNA, mtDNA and aDNA evidence pointing to possible associations with Southern Poland, Chalcolithic Bulgaria, Cucuteni Triploye, Globular Amphora and RRBP, so I feel the most likely route is mid/late millennium BC up Moldova and across Southern Poland and South/Central Germany; but I have not seen anything that looks conclusive.
    Why is it incorrect to reason as I did though? I'm always open to criticism, but nobody has told me why exactly I'm wrong. I don't claim to know the truth, like everyone I'm just speculating based on how I personally interpret the facts. As for haplogroups, I only really focus on Y DNA - in most cases, it isn't useful to look too much into mtDNA (try and make sense of many of the mtDNA maps on eupedia for example)

    As for the circumstances, I have explained that pretty well I think - it follows the spread of copper metallurgy and warlike elites. The first copper metallurgy in Western Europe is from Los Millares, which was organised based on caste and often at war with surrounding tribes. Of note too, is that copper metallurgy definitely did not enter SE Spain (the area of Los Millares) from a continental route, as Southern Spain received copper significantly earlier than e.g. Northern Spain. Thus, copper metallurgy necessarily must have made its way to Los Millares across the Mediterranean (the only other alternative being an origin from North Africa, however that seems unlikely as copper metallurgy only existed in the Maghreb much later). And as far as I'm aware without exception, the spread of metallurgy always involves the spread of people, but in any case it is still usually the case, so we have a new people arriving from across the Mediterranean (and as quick evidence of this, Los Millares imported goods from the Middle East and the elites buried themselves in tholoi (West Asian in origin)). The further connections with anthropomorphic stelae, the phylogeny point mentioned, the lack of L51 in Steppe cultures, the fact that L21 and DF27 cannot be clearly associated to any IE language, and the fact that the cultural profile of Los Millares matches what we know of the Beaker folk (warlike, metallurgical elites that readily appropriate pre-existing communities they come across) all add to the theory.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hrvclv View Post
    L51 from France ??? Until 2600 BC, R1b is nowhere to be seen in western Europe, save a few outliers who had probably come along with the "farmers". After 2500 BC, they suddenly show up all over central and western Europe. Either L51 had been in Hungary since the old Suvorovo pocket for centuries, or they came along with Yamna Danube.
    Before 2500 BC, they don't show up much in Central and Western Europe, nor in Eastern Europe, nor in the Steppe. Genetically, they probably looked more like those in the old Suvorovo pocket in Hungary, so perhaps they had been there for centuries. However, given that both the Suvorovo and Bell Beaker moved around a lot, I think it likely that they too moved around a lot. Indeed, the El Portalon sample shows a similar genetic footprint quite some distance away from Hungary.

    The point about L51 and France is that the phylogeny demonstrates a clear predicted coalescence point there. It says nothing about where L51's ancestors were before that point.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Before 2500 BC, they don't show up much in Central and Western Europe, nor in Eastern Europe, nor in the Steppe. Genetically, they probably looked more like those in the old Suvorovo pocket in Hungary, so perhaps they had been there for centuries. However, given that both the Suvorovo and Bell Beaker moved around a lot, I think it likely that they too moved around a lot. Indeed, the El Portalon sample shows similar genetic footprint quite some distance away from Hungary.

    The point about L51 and France is that the phylogeny demonstrates a clear predicted coalescence point there. It says nothing about where L51's ancestors were before that point.
    It doesn't predict coalescence there, it predicts an origin there. The subclade that split from the rest of L51 at the earliest point (400 years only after L51 was born) is majorly distributed around Southern France and surrounding regions about the West Med. And what do we know, those stelae I mentioned earlier have a huge hotspot in S. France, and these stelae date to the late neo/copper age transitional period...

    https://i.imgur.com/scFbZpS.png

    Below is Coon's (not fully accurate) interpretation (ignore dating, this was before the discovery of radiocarbon dating):





    Not because I saw this beforehand, look where the arrow across the Mediterranean (indicating Beaker origins) traces back to - exactly the region I labelled in my map as L23's Urheimat, and exactly the same region where Leyla-Tepe in the Caucasus was thought to be founded from (i.e. from Eastern Anatolia to Leyla Tepe bringing copper metallurgy - another non-coincidence, Leyla-Tepe had the first metallurgy in the Caucasus). If I haven't made it clear, I'm talking about the arrow that enters Cyprus.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Combining 65% Yamnaya and 35% Dereivka Sredny Stog gives a projected autosomal reading for German CW that has 20 times greater variance from actual CW than that projected by the best-fit combination. To me, this does not look like a very reasonable match..
    Well, but that wouldn't be a realistic model, and it's too simplistic, anyway. The vast majority of the Yamnaya samples are of Northeastern (Don-Volga) Yamnaya, not its western or southernmost part, and that's still a hindrance to a better understanding of these migrations in my opinion. We shouldn't expect to find excellent fits for all populations using just a few samples and very simple two-way admixtures or the like. As for Dereivka, its much higher than average EEF input may not be representative of the northern Sredny Stog people that may have given birth to the Yamnaya-Sredny Stog pre-CWC mix, maybe near Pripyat. In my opinion, admixture (especially due to female exogamy and male-biased conquests) was much more common than some are still willing to think. Therefore, of course I'm just speculating here, but if we're talking of a demographic path between Eneolithic (~4000 B.C.) and Early Bronze Age CWC in Germany (~2500 B.C.), I'd expect something much more complex. Importantly, Germany CWC wouldn't have been just a transplant of the North Ukraine Yamnaya-ized population, but the final result of an expansion of that population first northward, then westward, possibly absorbing different EEF and also EHG-enriched populations. I think simple models, even if they have a good statistical fit, are a bit implausible especially if you're talking about two populations very distant in time (by ~1500 years) and geography (by ~1500 km).

    There is also the problem that, according to your hypothesis, Suvorovo-Novodanilovka is "the key", but your main fit for CWC is basically a miraculously unmixed (for 1500 years and 1500km) Ukraine Eneolithic sample, which, if it's the one I think, is dated to 5000-3500 BCE (average ~4300 BCE), roughly when Suvorovo-Danilovka influence starts to appear in the archaeological record. But they don't seem to have been much influenced by the transformations brought by them and passed their genetic makeup on to Germany 1500 years almost totally unmixed, or so it seems according to your analysis. Would Suvorovo-Novodanilovka have just spread their culture via diffusion with little or no genetic impact, and also not changing their Y-DNA lineages at all?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Well, but that wouldn't be a realistic model, and it's too simplistic, anyway. The vast majority of the Yamnaya samples are of Northeastern (Don-Volga) Yamnaya, not its western or southernmost part, and that's still a hindrance to a better understanding of these migrations in my opinion. We shouldn't expect to find excellent fits for all populations using just a few samples and very simple two-way admixtures or the like. As for Dereivka, its much higher than average EEF input may not be representative of the northern Sredny Stog people that may have given birth to the Yamnaya-Sredny Stog pre-CWC mix, maybe near Pripyat. In my opinion, admixture (especially due to female exogamy and male-biased conquests) was much more common than some are still willing to think. Therefore, of course I'm just speculating here, but if we're talking of a demographic path between Eneolithic (~4000 B.C.) and Early Bronze Age CWC in Germany (~2500 B.C.), I'd expect something much more complex. Importantly, Germany CWC wouldn't have been just a transplant of the North Ukraine Yamnaya-ized population, but the final result of an expansion of that population first northward, then westward, possibly absorbing different EEF and also EHG-enriched populations. I think simple models, even if they have a good statistical fit, are a bit implausible especially if you're talking about two populations very distant in time (by ~1500 years) and geography (by ~1500 km).
    So given you're basically suggesting L51 in Western Yamnaya and Z2103 in Eastern Yamnaya, how does that square with the fact that the Hungarian BBs clearly show a mixing of Z2103 from the East and L51 from the West? This was what made Davidski turn away from Yamnaya recently (to the Single Grave culture), and it was heavily alluded to in one of the OREA talks also recently uploaded to youtube. And the fact that all samples from the Balkans with a possible Yamnaya origin have belonged either to I2a2 or Z2103 (e.g. Vucedol being Z2103)? And the fact that Z2103 still has a relatively strong presence showing its approximate trail following the Danube, with L51 leaving none?


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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    So given you're basically suggesting L51 in Western Yamnaya and Z2103 in Eastern Yamnaya, how does that square with the fact that the Hungarian BBs clearly show a mixing of Z2103 from the East and L51 from the West? This was what made Davidski turn away from Yamnaya recently (to the Single Grave culture), and it was heavily alluded to in one of the OREA talks also recently uploaded to youtube. And the fact that all samples from the Balkans with a possible Yamnaya origin have belonged either to I2a2 or Z2103 (e.g. Vucedol being Z2103)? And the fact that Z2103 still has a relatively strong presence showing its approximate trail following the Danube, with L51 leaving none?

    Well, I'm not suggesting that at all, since I'm talking about the origins of CWC and more specifically German CWC. But I actually think L51 was probably a Yamnaya-ized .

    Do you know why they're claiming that Z2103 came from the East and L51 from the West even in the absence of any pre-BB sample of L51 in the West? I saw some people in Eurogenes claiming that the fact that much of the EEF in Yamnaya_Hungary is pretty "northern" discards a relationship with Yamnaya because it should be closer to Yamnaya_Bulgaria. But I see no reason for that, honestly. Yamnaya_Hungary could well have been formed directly from Ukaine crossing the Carpathians. Throughout history there were peoples (the Magyars themselves, as well as Turks, Jasz etc.) that arguably invaded the Pannonian Basin from the north, via Western Ukraine/Slovakia, and not via Bulgaria and then northwards via the Danubian valleys.

    If L51 was, as some assume, a western, more "Transcarpathian" brother of Z2103, maybe initially absorbed by Cucuteni-Tripolye before its Indo-Europeanization and subsequent Yamnaya-ization in the latest phase of Cucuteni-Tripolye, it would make sense that it would spread along the Carpathians and from there to Yamnaya_Hungary picking up exactly that GAC-like "northern EEF" along the way.

    It still remains to me, for now, a bit hard to believe that L51 and Z2103 were very far from each other in Europe even if their split date was just a few centuries before Z2103 starts to be found in aDNA samples in Eastern Europe.


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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Yes, Suvorovo might well have been predominantly intrusive and invasive, but there are also some signs of collaboration and admixture (perhaps a bit like Vikings turning into Normans?). I would say Varna looks to have witnessed some of the first signs of Suvorovo, rather than a predecessor of it. After the collapses of the Balkan Neolithic, Suvorovo populations look to have taken away with them both some DNA and some of what they had learned from places they had 'invaded' - we know they migrated to Central Ukraine (where they would have look genetically rather like M417 Corded Ware) and probably through Moldova to the Upper Dniester (where, upon admixture with some Globular Amphora, they would have looked genetically rather like L51 Bell Beaker).

    Merging this analysis with what we think we know from archaeology, linguistics and other disciplines can sometimes assist, but can also sometimes muddy the clearer genetic waters.
    Let me see if I understood your point: Early Suvorovo was intrusive in the Balkans and came from the steppes very early (Late Neolithic) - which would explain their high EHG -, mixed there with Balkan_Neolithic people and changed some of its cultural ways and later migrated back to Ukraine and replaced all the local steppe and EEF (Cucuteni-Tripolye included) virtually without any mixing at all, before they subsequently spread to other parts of Western & Central Europe?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Well, I'm not suggesting that at all, since I'm talking about the origins of CWC and more specifically German CWC. But I actually think L51 was probably a Yamnaya-ized .

    Do you know why they're claiming that Z2103 came from the East and L51 from the West even in the absence of any pre-BB sample of L51 in the West? I saw some people in Eurogenes claiming that the fact that much of the EEF in Yamnaya_Hungary is pretty "northern" discards a relationship with Yamnaya because it should be closer to Yamnaya_Bulgaria. But I see no reason for that, honestly. Yamnaya_Hungary could well have been formed directly from Ukaine crossing the Carpathians. Throughout history there were peoples (the Magyars themselves, as well as Turks, Jasz etc.) that arguably invaded the Pannonian Basin from the north, via Western Ukraine/Slovakia, and not via Bulgaria and then northwards via the Danubian valleys.

    If L51 was, as some assume, a western, more "Transcarpathian" brother of Z2103, maybe initially absorbed by Cucuteni-Tripolye before its Indo-Europeanization and subsequent Yamnaya-ization in the latest phase of Cucuteni-Tripolye, it would make sense that it would spread along the Carpathians and from there to Yamnaya_Hungary picking up exactly that GAC-like "northern EEF" along the way.

    It still remains to me, for now, a bit hard to believe that L51 and Z2103 were very far from each other in Europe even if their split date was just a few centuries before Z2103 starts to be found in aDNA samples in Eastern Europe.

    I don't think they're claiming L51 came from Iberia/France, just that it arrived at Hungary (as BBs) from the West. And I have no idea, but I'm guessing that it's not baseless, so I'm going to go along with it - I'd logically guess they think L51 came from the East earlier, before U152 "turns around" and so comes back to Hungary from the West. And I'm not a big fan of this autosomal fitting that goes on, broadly it is of course important, but this is multivariable analysis so there's inevitably going to be many possible combinations when trying to tie down a specific type of admixture to specific groups (an example of this error is modelling Corded Ware as mostly Yamnaya-derived rather than Yamnaya-ised and simply having broadly similar overall ancestry). Looking at Y DNA never has this kind of error, it's 100% distinct, and for this reason I think should be looked at more than autosomal DNA when tracing migrations (Y DNA could thus be used as a marker).

    And about the idea that it's unlikely that L51 and Z2103 could have their Urheimats so far apart despite being sibling subclades under L23, to me it's fine, as for example by the Beaker period of expansion their common ancestor with the Yamnaya men would have been 2000 years in the past. That is plenty of time for one branch of an originally Syro-Anatolian L23 to migrate to the Caucasian Leyla-Tepe (and then to the Steppe, maybe via Maykop), and for another branch of this L23 to migrate across the Mediterranean until hitting South-Eastern Spain. Even if we decide not to associate this with R1b-L23+, the spread of copper metallurgy certainly follows such paths as described, so it isn't unreasonable at all. I mean, Z2103 made it all the way to China during early Yamnaya lol, that distance is far greater than island-hopping across the Mediterranean



    (Also, does anybody know why Germany and the surrounding regions receive copper so early in this map? I know it isn't an error, but I can't think of what culture it would be associated with)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    (an example of this error is modelling Corded Ware as mostly Yamnaya-derived rather than Yamnaya-ised and simply having broadly similar overall ancestry). Looking at Y DNA never has this kind of error, it's 100% distinct, and for this reason I think should be looked at more than autosomal DNA when tracing migrations (Y DNA could thus be used as a marker).
    I think all genetic and non-genetic data are important and only contribute to a realistic and probable conclusion about what must've happened if they're used in combination. For instance, using the same example of yours, by autosomal analysis we can establish that the bulk of the CWC ancestry came from broadly the same genetic structure where Yamnaya also arose (though it was a bit too bold to claim they were the Yamnaya, which usually means "East Yamnaya" people like Samara and the like), and that information could never be found if you just looked at their Y-DNA phylogeny and, by the huge prevalence of R1a-M417, you could well believe they would have nothing to do with the overwhelmingly R1b-Z2103 Yamnaya and could not have come from a broadly similar autosomal makeup and nearby region. All the evidences fit together, and one of them may help dispel some misleading conclusions given by other evidences alone.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    I think all genetic and non-genetic data are important and only contribute to a realistic and probable conclusion about what must've happened if they're used in combination. For instance, using the same example of yours, by autosomal analysis we can establish that the bulk of the CWC ancestry came from broadly the same genetic structure where Yamnaya also arose (though it was a bit too bold to claim they were the Yamnaya, which usually means "East Yamnaya" people like Samara and the like), and that information could never be found if you just looked at their Y-DNA phylogeny and, by the huge prevalence of R1a-M417, you could well believe they would have nothing to do with the overwhelmingly R1b-Z2103 Yamnaya and could not have come from a broadly similar autosomal makeup and nearby region. All the evidences fit together, and one of them may help dispel some misleading conclusions given by other evidences alone.
    Yup, totally agreed - I don't think autosomal DNA is useless for obvious reasons (you can have any form of autosomal ancestry and have similar Y DNA to someone else with completely different ancestry, and the opposite too). But as you suggest, I think autosomal ancestry is only useful when looking at the broad picture - unless it can be made much more precise (like 23andme), however I'm guessing that's statistically impossible with the comparatively few samples we have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    And about the idea that it's unlikely that L51 and Z2103 could have their Urheimats so far apart despite being sibling subclades under L23, to me it's fine, as for example by the Beaker period of expansion their common ancestor with the Yamnaya men would have been 2000 years in the past. That is plenty of time for one branch of an originally Syro-Anatolian L23 to migrate to the Caucasian Leyla-Tepe (and then to the Steppe, maybe via Maykop), and for another branch of this L23 to migrate across the Mediterranean until hitting South-Eastern Spain. Even if we decide not to associate this with R1b-L23+, the spread of copper metallurgy certainly follows such paths as described, so it isn't unreasonable at all. I mean, Z2103 made it all the way to China during early Yamnaya lol, that distance is far greater than island-hopping across the Mediterranean



    (Also, does anybody know why Germany and the surrounding regions receive copper so early in this map? I know it isn't an error, but I can't think of what culture it would be associated with)
    As for the Z2103 x L51 split, my main quibble with that big geographical distance is that they probably split around ~4500-4000 B.C., but IIRC there is already 1 Ukraine Eneolithic sample that is already and fully Z2103. That means that L23 would've split in Eastern Anatolia with Z2103 going to form Leyla-Tepe in the Caucasus and then migrated to the Northern Caucasus and from there westward to the Ukraine in a couple of centuries (and we already know from the Greater Caucasus paper that that wasn'tcommon stuff, the Caucasus seems to have acted as an effective barrier to any significant gene flow at least from the Eneolithic onward). In my opinion, where Z2103 was found in higher frequency earliest is probably not too far from where L51 also split.

    I keep thinking you're associating it the Indo-Europeans with a sort of technological avant-garde and proto-civilization status that the earliest Indo-European cultures did not have until they clearly mixed heavily with and absorbed previous Mediterranean cultures (or do you think the more advanced L23 people absorbed the language of the less advanced steppe hunter-gatherers and therefore became Indo-European only there?).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    As for the Z2103 x L51 split, my main quibble with that big geographical distance is that they probably split around ~4500-4000 B.C., but IIRC there is already 1 Ukraine Eneolithic sample that is already and fully Z2103. That means that L23 would've split in Eastern Anatolia with Z2103 going to form Leyla-Tepe in the Caucasus and then migrated to the Northern Caucasus and from there westward to the Ukraine in a couple of centuries (and we already know from the Greater Caucasus paper that that wasn'tcommon stuff, the Caucasus seems to have acted as an effective barrier to any significant gene flow at least from the Eneolithic onward). In my opinion, where Z2103 was found in higher frequency earliest is probably not too far from where L51 also split.

    I keep thinking you're associating it the Indo-Europeans with a sort of technological avant-garde and proto-civilization status that the earliest Indo-European cultures did not have until they clearly mixed heavily with and absorbed previous Mediterranean cultures (or do you think the more advanced L23 people absorbed the language of the less advanced steppe hunter-gatherers and therefore became Indo-European only there?).
    When does this Ukrainian sample date to?

    And I don't think L23+ folk were some kind of supermen, but it's impossible to deny that they dominated most of the cultures they came across. I (and a few others, Tomenable was where I first saw this idea) have linked this to the spread of copper smelting and warlike elites (and during the Metal Ages, having that sort of knowledge automatically gave you huge social status, so it all fits in). I have repeatedly, however, attributed the sophistications of civilisation to Near Eastern pred. Y DNA J folk (almost everyone was illiterate back then, but the Indo-Europeans didn't even have a writing script and no concrete abstract "theory of knowledge" that was clearly present in the Middle East with, for example, the invention of mathematics), so it isn't as if anything great in prehistory and history has to be related to R1b. I have no personal bias towards R1b either, as I'm a Y DNA I Jew.

    The ostensibly closest I get to "R1b supremacism" is with my belief in them even making up the elite in certain South American cultures lol, but even then virtually anybody from West Eurasia could have done the same if they crossed the Atlantic. We now know East Asians, albeit at a much later date, did the same across Polynesia, which I think is much more impressive than trans-Atlantic travel (which one man, Thor Heyerdahl, managed to do using very primitive rafting technology)

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    The phylogeny points broadly to North of the West Med. (as I'll explain), but I associate it with Los Millares as that matches the profile we know from the Central Beakers perfectly (warlike, metallurgical (first in W. Europe), caste-like elite, that also was part of the Bell Beaker phenomenon later on).

    So (I'm posting it as I've written it up twice on anthrogenica, just because so many get confused by it it seems):The first subclade to break away from L51 not related to L52, Z2118, dates back to only 400 years after the formation of L51 (5700 years ago, so well before the migrational period of L51 Beaker folk across Western and Central Europe). The men with this subclade, in modern times, are distributed mostly around Southern France and the Rhône region. Why is that the case, if not for that general area being L51's homeland? Why, during the great Beaker migrational period, would already differentiated Z2118 men "choose" to migrate to Southern France and not throughout the rest of Western and Central Europe? It would be like time-travelling to just before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk, marking those carriers of the subclade Z2118, and seeing that the vast majority migrated to that region North of the West Med. - that is ridiculously unlikely!

    An Eastern European origin of L51 would require those with branches that split at an earlier date before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk (i.e. Z2118) to have preferentially, for some reason, migrated to the vicinity of the South of France, and not elsewhere, DESPITE having been present at the earliest stages in L51's Urheimat. It would be like travelling back in time to just before the supposed great migration of L51 Westwards from E. Europe, marking those who carried this haplogroup, and seeing that the vast majority of them ended up in Southern France and the areas nearby and not so much elsewhere. There IS no reason for that, there can't be!
    Well, I'm not saying it didn't necessarily happen as you think, but, you know, parental lineages may thrive and may die out completely, especially if they were never very successful to begin with, in which case even mere genetic drift can extirpate them from the local gene pool. I understand the reasons that make people associate, at least prima facie, higher diversity of subclades with the urheimat of a lineage, but I think that's not that certain as some want to believe. If, for example, a lineage developed and start to break into many subhalogroups in region A, but this region was subsequently subject to huge population displacements, star-like booms of other haplogroups (mostly replacing other lineages nearby) and massive invasions, it is totally likely that we may end up with a higher concentration of diverse subhaplogroups of that lineage in another region due to sheer chance: where more subclades managed to survive after migrations, expansions of some clades at the expense of others, population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and many other factors. Some regions just experienced more population continuity than others. It really happens.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Well, I'm not saying it didn't necessarily happen as you think, but, you know, parental lineages may thrive and may die out completely, especially if they were never very successful to begin with, in which case even mere genetic drift can extirpate them from the local gene pool. I understand the reasons that make people associate, at least prima facie, higher diversity of subclades with the urheimat of a lineage, but I think that's not that certain as some want to believe. If, for example, a lineage developed and start to break into many subhalogroups in region A, but this region was subsequently subject to huge population displacements, star-like booms of other haplogroups (mostly replacing other lineages nearby) and massive invasions, it is totally likely that we may end up with a higher concentration of diverse subhaplogroups of that lineage in another region due to sheer chance: where more subclades managed to survive after migrations, expansions of some clades at the expense of others, population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and many other factors. Some regions just experienced more population continuity than others. It really happens.
    This isn't about the overall diversity of L51, it's just about looking at the distribution of the very oldest mutations (well well before the great Beaker migrations, so presumably dating to L51's Urheimat). Genetic drift is a definite possibility of course, but I would counter by saying during the Beaker migrations the population was large and growing (I think at least, from looking at the phylogeny and the fact that e.g. in Britain 90% population replacement occurred), which would make genetic drift causing such a distribution as below unlikely (R-Z2118, the joint-oldest mutation from L51 dating to the early 4th millenium BC):



    It's for the same reason (large population) that looking at maps of e.g. Y DNA U106, L21 or U152 actually tell us something, rather than invalidating all of these maps due to the possibility of the distribution just being caused by genetic drift.

    If, however, the Beaker population was small during the migrations and only began to grow after "settling down", then genetic drift becomes a real possibility (I still think, though, that the distribution over the large area around Southern France and contrasting absence thereof in places like Britain is too marked to be likely caused by drift, as genetic drift is just a matter of "luck" after all). But I doubt the Beaker population was small and at the same time replaced so many populations in such a short period of time.

    On top of this, there is the fact that this point doesn't just stand in isolation - it corroborates with many other points in my hypothesis too (e.g. the large presence of stelae in Southern France and surrounding regions around the West Med., the fact that copper spread to Los Millares from across the Med., the fact that the expansion of Beaker pottery took place from the SW of Europe, the fact that Los Millares is the oldest Western European culture to closely match the cultural traits of the Beaker metallurgical warlike elite folk etc.) So, I think at least, it's unlikely to have come from Eastern Europe. I certainly can't think of a culture to associate it with if it isn't Yamnaya or Corded Ware.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    Why is it incorrect to reason as I did though? I'm always open to criticism, but nobody has told me why exactly I'm wrong. I don't claim to know the truth, like everyone I'm just speculating based on how I personally interpret the facts. As for haplogroups, I only really focus on Y DNA - in most cases, it isn't useful to look too much into mtDNA (try and make sense of many of the mtDNA maps on eupedia for example)

    As for the circumstances, I have explained that pretty well I think - it follows the spread of copper metallurgy and warlike elites. The first copper metallurgy in Western Europe is from Los Millares, which was organised based on caste and often at war with surrounding tribes. Of note too, is that copper metallurgy definitely did not enter SE Spain (the area of Los Millares) from a continental route, as Southern Spain received copper significantly earlier than e.g. Northern Spain. Thus, copper metallurgy necessarily must have made its way to Los Millares across the Mediterranean (the only other alternative being an origin from North Africa, however that seems unlikely as copper metallurgy only existed in the Maghreb much later). And as far as I'm aware without exception, the spread of metallurgy always involves the spread of people, but in any case it is still usually the case, so we have a new people arriving from across the Mediterranean (and as quick evidence of this, Los Millares imported goods from the Middle East and the elites buried themselves in tholoi (West Asian in origin)). The further connections with anthropomorphic stelae, the phylogeny point mentioned, the lack of L51 in Steppe cultures, the fact that L21 and DF27 cannot be clearly associated to any IE language, and the fact that the cultural profile of Los Millares matches what we know of the Beaker folk (warlike, metallurgical elites that readily appropriate pre-existing communities they come across) all add to the theory.
    I'm not saying it's incorrect to reason as you did. I don't know enough about Los Millares; but from what you say, your hypothesis seems reasonable enough to me.

    There is a gap in the yDNA data between eastern subclades of M269 and western L51. Unless or until more data is published, I am using other genetic data to attempt to fill the gap. The best-fit for L51 Bell Beaker mtDNA came out as Cucuteni Tripolye with minorities of Russian Yamnaya, Middle East and RRBP (there was insufficient Khvalynsk data to include). The best-fit for German Bell Beaker aDNA came out as a mixture of Bulgarian Chalcolithic, Khvalynsk and Globular Amphora. As there are no signs of Iberian admixture in this, I don't see genetic evidence suggesting development in Iberia, that is all I'm saying. Of course, this evidence might emerge at some point.

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    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    It doesn't predict coalescence there, it predicts an origin there. The subclade that split from the rest of L51 at the earliest point (400 years only after L51 was born) is majorly distributed around Southern France and surrounding regions about the West Med.
    I wouldn't predict 'origin' when what we know of as L51 was formed over an estimated 400 years (including 5 SNPs and perhaps 15 or so generations) - a lot of movement can happen over a period that long, especially for an adventurous population. It could also have been the case that a cluster of men containing both of the basal clades of extant L51 migrated together to Western Europe from somewhere else. That is why I prefer to use the term coalescence - what I am saying precisely is that all known extant L51 most likely arose from a most recent common point of origin in France. I believe that is all I can say with any confidence.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Well, but that wouldn't be a realistic model, and it's too simplistic, anyway. The vast majority of the Yamnaya samples are of Northeastern (Don-Volga) Yamnaya, not its western or southernmost part, and that's still a hindrance to a better understanding of these migrations in my opinion.
    Yes, but the results do not differ significantly when modelling with Western Yamnaya (neither Ukrainian nor Balkan).

    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    We shouldn't expect to find excellent fits for all populations using just a few samples and very simple two-way admixtures or the like. As for Dereivka, its much higher than average EEF input may not be representative of the northern Sredny Stog people that may have given birth to the Yamnaya-Sredny Stog pre-CWC mix, maybe near Pripyat.
    I didn't expect excellent fits, but in some cases I found them nonetheless. As things stand, I see no genetic data to support the claim that Yamnaya-Sredny Stog was the pre-CWC mix.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    In my opinion, admixture (especially due to female exogamy and male-biased conquests) was much more common than some are still willing to think.
    I have no opinion on how common admixture was, and am merely guided by what the data suggests.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Therefore, of course I'm just speculating here, but if we're talking of a demographic path between Eneolithic (~4000 B.C.) and Early Bronze Age CWC in Germany (~2500 B.C.), I'd expect something much more complex.
    Why look for a complicated answer, when a simple answer is readily available?

    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    There is also the problem that, according to your hypothesis, Suvorovo-Novodanilovka is "the key", but your main fit for CWC is basically a miraculously unmixed (for 1500 years and 1500km) Ukraine Eneolithic sample, which, if it's the one I think, is dated to 5000-3500 BCE (average ~4300 BCE), roughly when Suvorovo-Danilovka influence starts to appear in the archaeological record. But they don't seem to have been much influenced by the transformations brought by them and passed their genetic makeup on to Germany 1500 years almost totally unmixed, or so it seems according to your analysis. Would Suvorovo-Novodanilovka have just spread their culture via diffusion with little or no genetic impact, and also not changing their Y-DNA lineages at all?
    This is not a problem. The Suvorovo were indeed influenced by the environments they passed through - my most likely estimate is that some became Bell Beaker, some Corded Ware, some Vucedol. There were probably a variety of yDNA lineages in them from the start - including at least R1a-M417, R1b-Z2103, R1b-L51 and probably some G2a-PF3345 and some Q1a. I would suggest that they admixed in Northern Anatolia and/or the Eastern Balkans, and that on branching out, some of them admixed with other local populations more than others.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ygorcs View Post
    Let me see if I understood your point: Early Suvorovo was intrusive in the Balkans and came from the steppes very early (Late Neolithic) - which would explain their high EHG -, mixed there with Balkan_Neolithic people and changed some of its cultural ways and later migrated back to Ukraine and replaced all the local steppe and EEF (Cucuteni-Tripolye included) virtually without any mixing at all, before they subsequently spread to other parts of Western & Central Europe?
    I don't know where Suvorovo came from, but its best fit is a mix of Khvalynsk and Central Anatolian (no element of Ukrainian seems to appear in it). We know a section of it migrated to, in particular, Eastern Ukraine. We can estimate that it would likely have been a Khvalynsk-heavy version of the Suvorovo-admixed populations that were absorbed into Eastern Balkan society; in fact, with just the kind of aDNA that we do find in the M417 sample from Alexandria in North Eastern Ukraine. I don't see that they replaced the local Steppe and EEF, which look like they were still there for some time, at least until Yamnaya arrived several centuries later. I have no particular opinion on why they spread westwards - perhaps it was under pressure from Yamnaya, which we know had advanced into the Baltic states?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I wouldn't predict 'origin' when what we know of as L51 was formed over an estimated 400 years (including 5 SNPs and perhaps 15 or so generations) - a lot of movement can happen over a period that long, especially for an adventurous population. It could also have been the case that a cluster of men containing both of the basal clades of extant L51 migrated together to Western Europe from somewhere else. That is why I prefer to use the term coalescence - what I am saying precisely is that all known extant L51 most likely arose from a most recent common point of origin in France. I believe that is all I can say with any confidence.
    That's true, roughly 500 years is a lot. But you wouldn't expect the origin to be very far from France - implicitly I had already considered this though, as I place the origin of L51 at Los Millares.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I don't know where Suvorovo came from, but its best fit is a mix of Khvalynsk and Central Anatolian (no element of Ukrainian seems to appear in it). We know a section of it migrated to, in particular, Eastern Ukraine. We can estimate that it would likely have been a Khvalynsk-heavy version of the Suvorovo-admixed populations that were absorbed into Eastern Balkan society; in fact, with just the kind of aDNA that we do find in the M417 sample from Alexandria in North Eastern Ukraine. I don't see that they replaced the local Steppe and EEF, which look like they were still there for some time, at least until Yamnaya arrived several centuries later. I have no particular opinion on why they spread westwards - perhaps it was under pressure from Yamnaya, which we know had advanced into the Baltic states?
    Wait, we have Suvorovo samples?

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    AH-HA!

    http://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2017.21

    Written by Volker Heyd himself no less! I'm not some raving lunatic after all, I'm definitely onto something

    I disagree with his conclusions, but nevertheless it backs up that what I've pointed out (e.g. Los Millares in SE Spain, Southern France etc.) is related to R1b in some way at a MUCH earlier date than expected.

    "Something was changing dramatically at a Continental scale in the late fourth/early third millennium BC: the emergence of anthropomorphic stelae throughout Europe, including France and Iberia, is one indicator; the new flint and copper daggers and occasional hammer-axes in the west are a second; and the graves of men buried with such weapons—warriors—is a third (Harrison & Heyd 2007; Heyd 2016). Especially revealing is the recently discovered funerary complex—structure 10.042–10.049—of paramount status in the PP4-Montelirio sector of the ‘mega-site’ of Valencina de la Concepción, deep in the Iberian south (Seville; Garcia Sanjuán et al. 2013). Several features are strongly reminiscent of Yamnaya/CWC graves: the date of 2875–2700 cal BC; the large barrow with burial chamber; the individual male burial, crouched on his right-side, oriented east–west; the flint dagger, and staining with red cinnabar pigment (Figure 3). The upper part of the chamber and the immediate surroundings (PP4 10.029; 80m away) offer two other significant artefacts: a long, oval African ivory ‘plate’ and a decorated gold sheet, both in the form of ‘sandals’ (Murillo-Barroso et al. 2015: 588–89). Further such sandals, sandal soles or sandal-shaped idols, as they are also called, made of ivory, bone or limestone, are recorded from four other sites in southern Iberia. All are key sites of the Chalcolithic and are dated to the first half of the third millennium BC.

    These are fascinating features/artefacts, but they would be of little wider significance if the contemporaneous European context did not have a really extraordinary parallel to offer: foot-print/shoe/sandal-formed engravings on Yamnaya/kurgan stelae from theUkraine (Telegin & Mallory 1994), carved and erected some 4500km away (Figure 4). Sandals are widely seen as symbolically loaded, with interpretations ranging from signs of status, power and property to concepts (in a burial context) of walking out of the tomb, towards the underworld in the case of sandal tips facing downwards (e.g. Mallory & Adams 1997). While we may only partly comprehend the symbolism, it is just one example of pan-European interconnectivity in the early third millennium BC, centuries before the Bell Beaker expansion around 2500 BC. This is what really matters, not the simple genetic transmission from Yamnaya to CWC."

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    Instead of some kind of unexplainable pan-European network from Iberia to Russia as Heyd (and Manco, who really brought up the stelae point) suggests, might I have the answer? Certainly, if we consider the point about copper metallurgy, any connections between Southern Iberia and the Steppe cannot have come over land, as Northern Iberia received copper much later (and so the answer lies with the Mediterranean, or maybe the Maghreb). I probably don't have the exact answers, maybe only somewhat, but that paper gives some authority to the connections made at least. I won't post this map forever by the way, but I don't think I've posted it in embedded form yet?


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