The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

Corded Ware samples are nearly all R1a-M417. According to yfull, everyone with M417 descends from a single man who lived 3,500 BC.
But we have a North Ukrainian M417 sample dated to 4,000 BC. This means that either all of his descendants died out, or that he personally was paternal ancestor to all M417 people today. The culture in which he lived exhibit the first-known corded patterns on pottery. His autosomal DNA shows an almost perfect (96%) match with German Corded Ware - in fact, it is no different to German Corded Ware than German Corded Ware samples are to each other.

1. Is there any reason to think that the 4,000 BC ancestor to R1a-M417 Corded Ware was anyone other than the man in this sample or someone very much like him?

2. As there is no discernible change in autosomal DNA between 4,000 BC and the German Corded Ware period, and as nearly all Corded Ware yDNA is from the same M417 subclade of R1a, is there any reason to think there was any significant admixture with other people during this period of development leading up to full Corded Ware?

3. In particular, given that (i) almost all Yamnayan samples are from a different yDNA group (R1b-Z2103) and bear only a 65% match to the North Ukrainian and German Corded Ware samples, and (ii) Yamnaya only arose circa 3,300 BC (700 years after the closely-matching Ukrainian M417 man lived), is there any reason to think that German Corded Ware was derived from Yamnayan admixture to any significant degree, rather than by direct descendance from the community in North Ukraine in which the 4.000 BC M417 man lived?
 
Corded Ware samples are nearly all R1a-M417. According to yfull, everyone with M417 descends from a single man who lived 3,500 BC.
But we have a North Ukrainian M417 sample dated to 4,000 BC. This means that either all of his descendants died out, or that he personally was paternal ancestor to all M417 people today. The culture in which he lived exhibit the first-known corded patterns on pottery. His autosomal DNA shows an almost perfect (96%) match with German Corded Ware - in fact, it is no different to German Corded Ware than German Corded Ware samples are to each other.

1. Is there any reason to think that the 4,000 BC ancestor to R1a-M417 Corded Ware was anyone other than the man in this sample or someone very much like him?

2. As there is no discernible change in autosomal DNA between 4,000 BC and the German Corded Ware period, and as nearly all Corded Ware yDNA is from the same M417 subclade of R1a, is there any reason to think there was any significant admixture with other people during this period of development leading up to full Corded Ware?

3. In particular, given that (i) almost all Yamnayan samples are from a different yDNA group (R1b-Z2103) and bear only a 65% match to the North Ukrainian and German Corded Ware samples, and (ii) Yamnaya only arose circa 3,300 BC (700 years after the closely-matching Ukrainian M417 man lived), is there any reason to think that German Corded Ware was derived from Yamnayan admixture to any significant degree, rather than by direct descendance from the community in North Ukraine in which the 4.000 BC M417 man lived?

I think the people at Harvard & Max Planck have been asking themselves similar questions, hence the hints at a very early source population of PIE in the Near East. The normal Chalcolithic timeframe contradicts their hypothesis, because there's no way Yamnaya, BBC, CWC & the early Anatolian speakers derive from one population that lived in the copper age.

Other than that I don't see why you'd want to discuss these things now - trying to pin migration routes with so little data is a waste of time.
 
I think the people at Harvard & Max Planck have been asking themselves similar questions, hence the hints at a very early source population of PIE in the Near East. The normal Chalcolithic timeframe contradicts their hypothesis, because there's no way Yamnaya, BBC, CWC & the early Anatolian speakers derive from one population that lived in the copper age.

Other than that I don't see why you'd want to discuss these things now - trying to pin migration routes with so little data is a waste of time.

Yes, let's forget migration routes for a moment - the point is that the community of the North Ukrainian M417 sample (and not Yamnaya) looks like the only credible (and pretty much exclusive) source for later Corded Ware populations, given the data we have available. Unless I'm missing another candidate that is anywhere near as likely?

However, why was this the only sample that had its DNA published, out of 39 samples discovered at the site? What was the yDNA and autosomal mix of the other 38? This might help determine whether its non-Steppe components were likely to have been of Cucuteni-Tripolye, Suvorovo, Anatolian or other origin.

All we do know is that its mtDNA was H2a1a, a haplogroup principally from South of the Caucasus, and a downstream subclade of the mtDNA of the Khvalynsk R1b sample. So it looks pretty much like Suvorovo to me, especially as its autosomal DNA fits best with a South East Balkan origin, and we already know that there were several contemporaneous Suvorovo sites that had arisen in the same area east of the Dnieper.

We may have relatively little data, but the data that we do have looks instructive enough for us to make an informed guess.
 
Yes, let's forget migration routes for a moment - the point is that the community of the North Ukrainian M417 sample (and not Yamnaya) looks like the only credible (and pretty much exclusive) source for later Corded Ware populations, given the data we have available. Unless I'm missing another candidate that is anywhere near as likely?

However, why was this the only sample that had its DNA published, out of 39 samples discovered at the site? What was the yDNA and autosomal mix of the other 38? This might help determine whether its non-Steppe components were likely to have been of Cucuteni-Tripolye, Suvorovo, Anatolian or other origin.

All we do know is that its mtDNA was H2a1a, a haplogroup principally from South of the Caucasus, and a downstream subclade of the mtDNA of the Khvalynsk R1b sample. So it looks pretty much like Suvorovo to me, especially as its autosomal DNA fits best with a South East Balkan origin, and we already know that there were several contemporaneous Suvorovo sites that had arisen in the same area east of the Dnieper.

We may have relatively little data, but the data that we do have looks instructive enough for us to make an informed guess.

The eastern Balkanic steppe region is definitely in need of investigation. Not only Cernavoda and Ezero, but the LN cultures that prececde those as well; in particular Hamangia and Boian culture. The former contributed to the later steppe culture the typical anthropomorphic stelae. They appear already fully developed in LN Hamangia, barely distinguishable from the later stelae in the steppe:

bef6bf884bda17629e803afbf8c50de0.jpg


Another thing worthy of consideration are the autosomally divergent samples from Mikhailovska, some of which seem to show elevated CHG affinity which could or could not indicate that there existed a cline within Ukraine, perhaps running from south to north. In fact the earliest steppe culture in which all constituent elements (herding, stelae, kurgans) exist side by side is Kemi Oba concentrated in the Crimean flatlands. Culturally and artistically Kemi Oba appears to be of seminal importance for developments in the wider steppe region, so hopefully we'll get some samples from those sites.

z5r.jpg


At least as far as archaeology is concerned, your hypothesis of south-eastern European influence in the steppe seems to have some support. I'm not entirely sure whether that influence will show up in the DNA, but it will be interesting to see what the earliest stelae builders of the Black Sea look like genetically nonetheless. Their artistic traditions spread far and wide for sure, adopted by Scythians, Mongols, Turks and most of the other nomadic societies of the Eurasian plains.
 
The eastern Balkanic steppe region is definitely in need of investigation. Not only Cernavoda and Ezero, but the LN cultures that prececde those as well; in particular Hamangia and Boian culture. The former contributed to the later steppe culture the typical anthropomorphic stelae. They appear already fully developed in LN Hamangia, barely distinguishable from the later stelae in the steppe:

bef6bf884bda17629e803afbf8c50de0.jpg


Another thing worthy of consideration are the autosomally divergent samples from Mikhailovska, some of which seem to show elevated CHG affinity which could or could not indicate that there existed a cline within Ukraine, perhaps running from south to north. In fact the earliest steppe culture in which all constituent elements (herding, stelae, kurgans) exist side by side is Kemi Oba concentrated in the Crimean flatlands. Culturally and artistically Kemi Oba appears to be of seminal importance for developments in the wider steppe region, so hopefully we'll get some samples from those sites.

z5r.jpg


At least as far as archaeology is concerned, your hypothesis of south-eastern European influence in the steppe seems to have some support. I'm not entirely sure whether that influence will show up in the DNA, but it will be interesting to see what the earliest stelae builders of the Black Sea look like genetically nonetheless. Their artistic traditions spread far and wide for sure, adopted by Scythians, Mongols, Turks and most of the other nomadic societies of the Eurasian plains.

Very similar stelae appear in Western Europe (mostly around the Western Med.) during the Bell Beaker period at least as early as 3000 BC :unsure:

Too early to be from Yamnaya, for sure.
 
Very similar stelae appear in Western Europe (mostly around the Western Med.) during the Bell Beaker period at least as early as 3000 BC :unsure:

Too early to be from Yamnaya, for sure.

Yeah, Remedello culture in Italy has the earliest western stelae. That's why scholars used to think those people were steppe IE migrants.
 
Yeah, Remedello culture in Italy has the earliest western stelae. That's why scholars used to think those people were steppe IE migrants.

I think they're earlier in the South of France, but that intrigues me - do we know what Remedello DNA was? Similar to Iberia at the time?
 
I think they're earlier in the South of France, but that intrigues me - do we know what Remedello DNA was?

Y-DNA I2 EEF types. Probably Megalithic Iberian colonist looking for tin.

Seems quite random that they would adopt the stelae tradition with such fidelity from the Black Sea I guess. Who knows what Chalcolithic people were thinking.
 
Y-DNA I2 EEF types. Probably Megalithic Iberian colonist looking for tin.

Seems quite random that they would adopt the stelae tradition with such fidelity from the Black Sea I guess. Who knows what Chalcolithic people were thinking.

Eh, I think that those stelae are signs of R1b L51. They're in full military attire when they depict men, and I know this is stereotyping but that isn't something you'd expect from Megalithic folk.
 
Eh, I think that those stelae are signs of R1b L51. They're in full military attire when they depict men, and I know this is stereotyping but that isn't something you'd expect from Megalithic folk.

:embarassed:

Afaik the R1b-rich Iron Gates people were typical Mesolithic 'goddess' worshippers. I don't think there's a link between warriorhood and R1b.
 
The eastern Balkanic steppe region is definitely in need of investigation. Not only Cernavoda and Ezero, but the LN cultures that prececde those as well; in particular Hamangia and Boian culture. The former contributed to the later steppe culture the typical anthropomorphic stelae. They appear already fully developed in LN Hamangia, barely distinguishable from the later stelae in the steppe:

bef6bf884bda17629e803afbf8c50de0.jpg


Another thing worthy of consideration are the autosomally divergent samples from Mikhailovska, some of which seem to show elevated CHG affinity which could or could not indicate that there existed a cline within Ukraine, perhaps running from south to north. In fact the earliest steppe culture in which all constituent elements (herding, stelae, kurgans) exist side by side is Kemi Oba concentrated in the Crimean flatlands. Culturally and artistically Kemi Oba appears to be of seminal importance for developments in the wider steppe region, so hopefully we'll get some samples from those sites.

z5r.jpg


At least as far as archaeology is concerned, your hypothesis of south-eastern European influence in the steppe seems to have some support. I'm not entirely sure whether that influence will show up in the DNA, but it will be interesting to see what the earliest stelae builders of the Black Sea look like genetically nonetheless. Their artistic traditions spread far and wide for sure, adopted by Scythians, Mongols, Turks and most of the other nomadic societies of the Eurasian plains.

Statue Stelae of the Lunigiana:
statue-stele-lunigiana-statues-750x410.jpg


museo-statue-stele-della.jpg


People used to embed them in walls, use them as doorstops, whatever...

IMG_0167.jpg


This is their distribution.

statue-stele-mappa.gif


Jean Manco used to think that they were a sign of R1b Indo-Europeans coming across the Balkans, and then the Po and then onto the western Med, particularly at such an early time.

y2rvVfZ.png
[/IMG]

I didn't and don't see why they would have just gone due west like that. In actuality, the area where they are found is on the route from north of the Alps into Italy. It follows the rivers, then the mountain passes over the Apennines and then the Magra south either into Italy itself or the Mediterranean. Or vice versa, of course. It's basically the same route as the later Via Francigena.

1200px-VF_Ruta_completa_con_pricipales_poblaciones.svg.png
 
Jean Manco used to think that they were a sign of R1b Indo-Europeans coming across the Balkans, and then the Po and then onto the western Med, particularly at such an early time.

y2rvVfZ.png


I didn't and don't see why they would have just gone due west like that. In actuality, the area where they are found is on the route from north of the Alps into Italy. It follows the rivers, then the mountain passes over the Apennines and then the Magra south either into Italy itself or the Mediterranean. Or vice versa, of course. It's basically the same route as the later Via Francigena.

There's actually one in Northern Saudi Arabia of all places (see below), of the same style dated to between 4000 and 3000 BCE(!!!), and supposedly (according to Russian Wikipedia, make of that what you will), the Kemi Oba stelae have links to the Caucasus.

8d26e5a9-2b6a-4f9e-b571-e24221eb341e.jpg


I personally feel that matches well with this speculative map I made, with the origin of this anthropomorphic stelae folk at the point marked by L23:

scFbZpS.png
 
Y-DNA I2 EEF types. Probably Megalithic Iberian colonist looking for tin.
Running my autosomal best-fit calculator on them, they come out as majority Bulgarian Neolithic, minority Iberian Neolithic (perhaps unsurprising, given Italy's position between the Balkans and Iberia). No noticeable Steppe ancestry. If their given yDNA readings are correct, they are of a variety of I2 that looks Iberian, with no ancient extant branches coalescing in Italy. My guess is that Remedello were principally Iberian men who mixed with local women, and ultimately died out.

I've no insights into how they would have appropriated stelae.
 
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Running my autosomal best-fit calculator on them, they come out as majority Bulgarian Neolithic, minority Iberian Neolithic (perhaps unsurprising, given Italy's position between the Balkans and Iberia). No noticeable Steppe ancestry. If their given yDNA readings are correct, they are of a variety of I2 that looks Iberian, with no ancient extant branches coalescing in Italy. My guess is that Remedello were principally Iberian men who mixed with local women, and ultimately died out.

I've no insights into how they would have appropriated stelae.

Well if they did have Balkan moms and Iberian Megalithic fathers that would be very interesting for sure, and it would provide at least some explanation as to how this very specific tradition spread to Western Europe. As Angela pointed out, many people were convinced that the Remedello guys were steppe immigrants because the stelae are nigh indistinguishable from those on the steppe.

One thing Anthony, Mallory and others didn't take into account is that they appear in Romania before they are adopted in Crimea whence the tradition spreads to the wider steppe region. I believe this to be an unfortunate result of the hyperfocus on the steppe; lots of nuance is lost due to this.
 
Well if they did have Balkan moms and Iberian Megalithic fathers that would be very interesting for sure, and it would provide at least some explanation as to how this very specific tradition spread to Western Europe. As Angela pointed out, many people were convinced that the Remedello guys were steppe immigrants because the stelae are nigh indistinguishable from those on the steppe.

One thing Anthony, Mallory and others didn't take into account is that they appear in Romania before they are adopted in Crimea whence the tradition spreads to the wider steppe region. I believe this to be an unfortunate result of the hyperfocus on the steppe; lots of nuance is lost due to this.

I completely agree.

Also, in terms of Remedello itself, like Baden, the assumption that they were steppe people came from the fact that their cultures exhibited many of the "hallmarks" of steppe culture. Whether it was a function of the fact that sometimes "pots are indeed just pots", and culture can travel without genes (westward), or a lot of it, like the stelae, might have developed first in the Balkans and then moved east, I don't know.
 
I completely agree.
Also, in terms of Remedello itself, like Baden, the assumption that they were steppe people came from the fact that their cultures exhibited many of the "hallmarks" of steppe culture. Whether it was a function of the fact that sometimes "pots are indeed just pots", and culture can travel without genes (westward), or a lot of it, like the stelae, might have developed first in the Balkans and then moved east, I don't know.
The core of Remedello DNA looks similar to Balkanic, but from before the Balkans were infused with Caucasian DNA. However, the Stelae look like masculine symbols, and the dominant paternal DNA within Remedello appears to be Megalithic I2. Without taking into account finds elsewhere, this would be suggestive of the Stelae having a Megalithic origin.
We know there were a few odd strands of Steppe cropping up in early southern DNA (El Portalon and Vucedol, which my calculator suggests are related and independent of both Bell Beaker and Yamnaya). Might the Stelae have been picked up by Megalithic people from the very first Steppe adventurers into Southern France/Northern Spain mid 4th millennium BC?
I will calculate some dating estimates for the development of Remedello-like yDNA to see if it mirrors the development of Steppe lineages.
 
The core of Remedello DNA looks similar to Balkanic, but from before the Balkans were infused with Caucasian DNA. However, the Stelae look like masculine symbols, and the dominant paternal DNA within Remedello appears to be Megalithic I2. Without taking into account finds elsewhere, this would be suggestive of the Stelae having a Megalithic origin.
We know there were a few odd strands of Steppe cropping up in early southern DNA (El Portalon and Vucedol, which my calculator suggests are related and independent of both Bell Beaker and Yamnaya). Might the Stelae have been picked up by Megalithic people from the very first Steppe adventurers into Southern France/Northern Spain mid 4th millennium BC?
I will calculate some dating estimates for the development of Remedello-like yDNA to see if it mirrors the development of Steppe lineages.

My dating estimate for Remedello's yDNA is that it spread down from North Western Europe into Northern/Eastern Spain and Sardinia at roughly the same time that Remedello began early 4th millennium BC (relatively diverse traces of it still exist in both of these locations). Despite its autosomal DNA containing no significant Steppe component, this makes its expansion into South Western Europe roughly contemporary with my estimates of when Steppe-like DNA first moved into Western Europe.

I am wondering whether, despite a lack of substantial admixture, these two sets of people shared cultural traits and perhaps collaborated to any degree.

Are there many cultural features in common between peoples over this yDNA's sphere of influence (early 4th millennium to third millennium BC Northern and Eastern Spain, Po Valley and Sardinia)?

And are any traits clearly shared between these people and early R1b-infused Western/Southern European people such as Bell Beaker, El Portalon and Vucedol?
 
:embarassed:

Afaik the R1b-rich Iron Gates people were typical Mesolithic 'goddess' worshippers. I don't think there's a link between warriorhood and R1b.

A lot of Sredny Stog sculptures are depicting breasty women that have hands on the pelvis. We shouldn't assume that Pontic Steppe cultures even if related and in relationship, had exactly the same cultural approaches. Even in modern times, some tribes separated from only few miles can have different approaches of life.
 
There's actually one in Northern Saudi Arabia of all places (see below), of the same style dated to between 4000 and 3000 BCE(!!!), and supposedly (according to Russian Wikipedia, make of that what you will), the Kemi Oba stelae have links to the Caucasus.

8d26e5a9-2b6a-4f9e-b571-e24221eb341e.jpg


I personally feel that matches well with this speculative map I made, with the origin of this anthropomorphic stelae folk at the point marked by L23:

scFbZpS.png

Problem with your map, it doesn't match any thing that we know. Stelae are not human remains, they are obvious structures. Wich means, if R1b-M269 came to Anatolia from Balkans and that they learn somewhere the Stelae, we would already have some older exemples of stelae in a totally unrelated contexte with the ones from Europe. As we can see in the exemple given by Marko, we have potentially CHG-Steppe population ( Kemi Oba ) and EEF populations ( Remedello, maybe Hamangia ) with the exact same structures. For me it looks like then Stelae might originated somwhere near Eastern Balkans and irradiate to the Pontic Steppe and from there South of the Caucasus. Imo, Eastern Balkans are a very underestimate place for PIE or the " Patriarcal " social stratification, it was directly between the first Balkans Chalcolithic and the Pontic Steppe, it's like been Switzerland between Germany/France and Italy.

Also, how can R1b-Z2103 being both in Eastern Anatolia and Eastern Europe, but dont be the same. If the Yamnaya R1b-Z2103 came from Eastern Anatolia into Eastern Europe, why doesn'it exist anymore in Eastern Anatolia and wasn't found in ancient remains till now?
 
Also, how can R1b-Z2103 being both in Eastern Anatolia and Eastern Europe, but dont be the same. If the Yamnaya R1b-Z2103 came from Eastern Anatolia into Eastern Europe, why doesn'it exist anymore in Eastern Anatolia and wasn't found in ancient remains till now?
I don't see enough Anatolian in Yamnaya for Z2103 to have developed South West of the Caucasus. It looks to me that some Z2103 was with formative L51 and R1a as it first ventured West and admixed with Balkan people, some became Yamnaya and flourished before being mostly replaced by resurgent R1a, and some re-emerged from bolt-hole bottlenecks in the Caucasus.
When populations flourish from bottlenecks (like L51), it is unlikely we will find them in ancient remains anywhere. The only data we can work from is (I) where they most likely developed first (based on where they are diverse), (2) where similar autosomal DNA and mtDNA existed, and (3) where their closest relatives have been found.
 

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