The spread of 'Steppe' DNA and autosomal best-fit analysis

[Ygorcs]

The phylogeny points broadly to North of the West Med. (as I'll explain), but I associate it with Los Millares as that matches the profile we know from the Central Beakers perfectly (warlike, metallurgical (first in W. Europe), caste-like elite, that also was part of the Bell Beaker phenomenon later on).

So (I'm posting it as I've written it up twice on anthrogenica, just because so many get confused by it it seems):The first subclade to break away from L51 not related to L52, Z2118, dates back to only 400 years after the formation of L51 (5700 years ago, so well before the migrational period of L51 Beaker folk across Western and Central Europe). The men with this subclade, in modern times, are distributed mostly around Southern France and the Rhône region. Why is that the case, if not for that general area being L51's homeland? Why, during the great Beaker migrational period, would already differentiated Z2118 men "choose" to migrate to Southern France and not throughout the rest of Western and Central Europe? It would be like time-travelling to just before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk, marking those carriers of the subclade Z2118, and seeing that the vast majority migrated to that region North of the West Med. - that is ridiculously unlikely!

An Eastern European origin of L51 would require those with branches that split at an earlier date before the great migrational period of the Beaker folk (i.e. Z2118) to have preferentially, for some reason, migrated to the vicinity of the South of France, and not elsewhere, DESPITE having been present at the earliest stages in L51's Urheimat. It would be like travelling back in time to just before the supposed great migration of L51 Westwards from E. Europe, marking those who carried this haplogroup, and seeing that the vast majority of them ended up in Southern France and the areas nearby and not so much elsewhere. There IS no reason for that, there can't be!

Well, I'm not saying it didn't necessarily happen as you think, but, you know, parental lineages may thrive and may die out completely, especially if they were never very successful to begin with, in which case even mere genetic drift can extirpate them from the local gene pool. I understand the reasons that make people associate, at least prima facie, higher diversity of subclades with the urheimat of a lineage, but I think that's not that certain as some want to believe. If, for example, a lineage developed and start to break into many subhalogroups in region A, but this region was subsequently subject to huge population displacements, star-like booms of other haplogroups (mostly replacing other lineages nearby) and massive invasions, it is totally likely that we may end up with a higher concentration of diverse subhaplogroups of that lineage in another region due to sheer chance: where more subclades managed to survive after migrations, expansions of some clades at the expense of others, population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and many other factors. Some regions just experienced more population continuity than others. It really happens.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Well, I'm not saying it didn't necessarily happen as you think, but, you know, parental lineages may thrive and may die out completely, especially if they were never very successful to begin with, in which case even mere genetic drift can extirpate them from the local gene pool. I understand the reasons that make people associate, at least prima facie, higher diversity of subclades with the urheimat of a lineage, but I think that's not that certain as some want to believe. If, for example, a lineage developed and start to break into many subhalogroups in region A, but this region was subsequently subject to huge population displacements, star-like booms of other haplogroups (mostly replacing other lineages nearby) and massive invasions, it is totally likely that we may end up with a higher concentration of diverse subhaplogroups of that lineage in another region due to sheer chance: where more subclades managed to survive after migrations, expansions of some clades at the expense of others, population bottlenecks, genetic drift, and many other factors. Some regions just experienced more population continuity than others. It really happens.

This isn't about the overall diversity of L51, it's just about looking at the distribution of the very oldest mutations (well well before the great Beaker migrations, so presumably dating to L51's Urheimat). Genetic drift is a definite possibility of course, but I would counter by saying during the Beaker migrations the population was large and growing (I think at least, from looking at the phylogeny and the fact that e.g. in Britain 90% population replacement occurred), which would make genetic drift causing such a distribution as below unlikely (R-Z2118, the joint-oldest mutation from L51 dating to the early 4th millenium BC):

It's for the same reason (large population) that looking at maps of e.g. Y DNA U106, L21 or U152 actually tell us something, rather than invalidating all of these maps due to the possibility of the distribution just being caused by genetic drift.

If, however, the Beaker population was small during the migrations and only began to grow after "settling down", then genetic drift becomes a real possibility (I still think, though, that the distribution over the large area around Southern France and contrasting absence thereof in places like Britain is too marked to be likely caused by drift, as genetic drift is just a matter of "luck" after all). But I doubt the Beaker population was small and at the same time replaced so many populations in such a short period of time.

On top of this, there is the fact that this point doesn't just stand in isolation - it corroborates with many other points in my hypothesis too (e.g. the large presence of stelae in Southern France and surrounding regions around the West Med., the fact that copper spread to Los Millares from across the Med., the fact that the expansion of Beaker pottery took place from the SW of Europe, the fact that Los Millares is the oldest Western European culture to closely match the cultural traits of the Beaker metallurgical warlike elite folk etc.) So, I think at least, it's unlikely to have come from Eastern Europe. I certainly can't think of a culture to associate it with if it isn't Yamnaya or Corded Ware.

 

[Pip]

Why is it incorrect to reason as I did though? I'm always open to criticism, but nobody has told me why exactly I'm wrong. I don't claim to know the truth, like everyone I'm just speculating based on how I personally interpret the facts. As for haplogroups, I only really focus on Y DNA - in most cases, it isn't useful to look too much into mtDNA (try and make sense of many of the mtDNA maps on eupedia for example)

As for the circumstances, I have explained that pretty well I think - it follows the spread of copper metallurgy and warlike elites. The first copper metallurgy in Western Europe is from Los Millares, which was organised based on caste and often at war with surrounding tribes. Of note too, is that copper metallurgy definitely did not enter SE Spain (the area of Los Millares) from a continental route, as Southern Spain received copper significantly earlier than e.g. Northern Spain. Thus, copper metallurgy necessarily must have made its way to Los Millares across the Mediterranean (the only other alternative being an origin from North Africa, however that seems unlikely as copper metallurgy only existed in the Maghreb much later). And as far as I'm aware without exception, the spread of metallurgy always involves the spread of people, but in any case it is still usually the case, so we have a new people arriving from across the Mediterranean (and as quick evidence of this, Los Millares imported goods from the Middle East and the elites buried themselves in tholoi (West Asian in origin)). The further connections with anthropomorphic stelae, the phylogeny point mentioned, the lack of L51 in Steppe cultures, the fact that L21 and DF27 cannot be clearly associated to any IE language, and the fact that the cultural profile of Los Millares matches what we know of the Beaker folk (warlike, metallurgical elites that readily appropriate pre-existing communities they come across) all add to the theory.

I'm not saying it's incorrect to reason as you did. I don't know enough about Los Millares; but from what you say, your hypothesis seems reasonable enough to me.

There is a gap in the yDNA data between eastern subclades of M269 and western L51. Unless or until more data is published, I am using other genetic data to attempt to fill the gap. The best-fit for L51 Bell Beaker mtDNA came out as Cucuteni Tripolye with minorities of Russian Yamnaya, Middle East and RRBP (there was insufficient Khvalynsk data to include). The best-fit for German Bell Beaker aDNA came out as a mixture of Bulgarian Chalcolithic, Khvalynsk and Globular Amphora. As there are no signs of Iberian admixture in this, I don't see genetic evidence suggesting development in Iberia, that is all I'm saying. Of course, this evidence might emerge at some point.

 

[Pip]

It doesn't predict coalescence there, it predicts an origin there. The subclade that split from the rest of L51 at the earliest point (400 years only after L51 was born) is majorly distributed around Southern France and surrounding regions about the West Med.

I wouldn't predict 'origin' when what we know of as L51 was formed over an estimated 400 years (including 5 SNPs and perhaps 15 or so generations) - a lot of movement can happen over a period that long, especially for an adventurous population. It could also have been the case that a cluster of men containing both of the basal clades of extant L51 migrated together to Western Europe from somewhere else. That is why I prefer to use the term coalescence - what I am saying precisely is that all known extant L51 most likely arose from a most recent common point of origin in France. I believe that is all I can say with any confidence.

 

[Pip]

Well, but that wouldn't be a realistic model, and it's too simplistic, anyway. The vast majority of the Yamnaya samples are of Northeastern (Don-Volga) Yamnaya, not its western or southernmost part, and that's still a hindrance to a better understanding of these migrations in my opinion.

Yes, but the results do not differ significantly when modelling with Western Yamnaya (neither Ukrainian nor Balkan).

We shouldn't expect to find excellent fits for all populations using just a few samples and very simple two-way admixtures or the like. As for Dereivka, its much higher than average EEF input may not be representative of the northern Sredny Stog people that may have given birth to the Yamnaya-Sredny Stog pre-CWC mix, maybe near Pripyat.

I didn't expect excellent fits, but in some cases I found them nonetheless. As things stand, I see no genetic data to support the claim that Yamnaya-Sredny Stog was the pre-CWC mix.

In my opinion, admixture (especially due to female exogamy and male-biased conquests) was much more common than some are still willing to think.

I have no opinion on how common admixture was, and am merely guided by what the data suggests.

Therefore, of course I'm just speculating here, but if we're talking of a demographic path between Eneolithic (~4000 B.C.) and Early Bronze Age CWC in Germany (~2500 B.C.), I'd expect something much more complex.

Why look for a complicated answer, when a simple answer is readily available?

There is also the problem that, according to your hypothesis, Suvorovo-Novodanilovka is "the key", but your main fit for CWC is basically a miraculously unmixed (for 1500 years and 1500km) Ukraine Eneolithic sample, which, if it's the one I think, is dated to 5000-3500 BCE (average ~4300 BCE), roughly when Suvorovo-Danilovka influence starts to appear in the archaeological record. But they don't seem to have been much influenced by the transformations brought by them and passed their genetic makeup on to Germany 1500 years almost totally unmixed, or so it seems according to your analysis. Would Suvorovo-Novodanilovka have just spread their culture via diffusion with little or no genetic impact, and also not changing their Y-DNA lineages at all?

This is not a problem. The Suvorovo were indeed influenced by the environments they passed through - my most likely estimate is that some became Bell Beaker, some Corded Ware, some Vucedol. There were probably a variety of yDNA lineages in them from the start - including at least R1a-M417, R1b-Z2103, R1b-L51 and probably some G2a-PF3345 and some Q1a. I would suggest that they admixed in Northern Anatolia and/or the Eastern Balkans, and that on branching out, some of them admixed with other local populations more than others.

 

[Pip]

Let me see if I understood your point: Early Suvorovo was intrusive in the Balkans and came from the steppes very early (Late Neolithic) - which would explain their high EHG -, mixed there with Balkan_Neolithic people and changed some of its cultural ways and later migrated back to Ukraine and replaced all the local steppe and EEF (Cucuteni-Tripolye included) virtually without any mixing at all, before they subsequently spread to other parts of Western & Central Europe?

I don't know where Suvorovo came from, but its best fit is a mix of Khvalynsk and Central Anatolian (no element of Ukrainian seems to appear in it). We know a section of it migrated to, in particular, Eastern Ukraine. We can estimate that it would likely have been a Khvalynsk-heavy version of the Suvorovo-admixed populations that were absorbed into Eastern Balkan society; in fact, with just the kind of aDNA that we do find in the M417 sample from Alexandria in North Eastern Ukraine. I don't see that they replaced the local Steppe and EEF, which look like they were still there for some time, at least until Yamnaya arrived several centuries later. I have no particular opinion on why they spread westwards - perhaps it was under pressure from Yamnaya, which we know had advanced into the Baltic states?

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

I wouldn't predict 'origin' when what we know of as L51 was formed over an estimated 400 years (including 5 SNPs and perhaps 15 or so generations) - a lot of movement can happen over a period that long, especially for an adventurous population. It could also have been the case that a cluster of men containing both of the basal clades of extant L51 migrated together to Western Europe from somewhere else. That is why I prefer to use the term coalescence - what I am saying precisely is that all known extant L51 most likely arose from a most recent common point of origin in France. I believe that is all I can say with any confidence.

That's true, roughly 500 years is a lot. But you wouldn't expect the origin to be very far from France - implicitly I had already considered this though, as I place the origin of L51 at Los Millares.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

I don't know where Suvorovo came from, but its best fit is a mix of Khvalynsk and Central Anatolian (no element of Ukrainian seems to appear in it). We know a section of it migrated to, in particular, Eastern Ukraine. We can estimate that it would likely have been a Khvalynsk-heavy version of the Suvorovo-admixed populations that were absorbed into Eastern Balkan society; in fact, with just the kind of aDNA that we do find in the M417 sample from Alexandria in North Eastern Ukraine. I don't see that they replaced the local Steppe and EEF, which look like they were still there for some time, at least until Yamnaya arrived several centuries later. I have no particular opinion on why they spread westwards - perhaps it was under pressure from Yamnaya, which we know had advanced into the Baltic states?

Wait, we have Suvorovo samples?

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

AH-HA!

http://sci-hub.tw/https://doi.org/10.15184/aqy.2017.21

Written by Volker Heyd himself no less! I'm not some raving lunatic after all, I'm definitely onto something :grin:

I disagree with his conclusions, but nevertheless it backs up that what I've pointed out (e.g. Los Millares in SE Spain, Southern France etc.) is related to R1b in some way at a MUCH earlier date than expected.

"Something was changing dramatically at a Continental scale in the late fourth/early third millennium BC: the emergence of anthropomorphic stelae throughout Europe, including France and Iberia, is one indicator; the new flint and copper daggers and occasional hammer-axes in the west are a second; and the graves of men buried with such weapons—warriors—is a third (Harrison & Heyd 2007; Heyd 2016). Especially revealing is the recently discovered funerary complex—structure 10.042–10.049—of paramount status in the PP4-Montelirio sector of the ‘mega-site’ of Valencina de la Concepción, deep in the Iberian south (Seville; Garcia Sanjuán et al. 2013). Several features are strongly reminiscent of Yamnaya/CWC graves: the date of 2875–2700 cal BC; the large barrow with burial chamber; the individual male burial, crouched on his right-side, oriented east–west; the flint dagger, and staining with red cinnabar pigment (Figure 3). The upper part of the chamber and the immediate surroundings (PP4 10.029; 80m away) offer two other significant artefacts: a long, oval African ivory ‘plate’ and a decorated gold sheet, both in the form of ‘sandals’ (Murillo-Barroso et al. 2015: 588–89). Further such sandals, sandal soles or sandal-shaped idols, as they are also called, made of ivory, bone or limestone, are recorded from four other sites in southern Iberia. All are key sites of the Chalcolithic and are dated to the first half of the third millennium BC.

These are fascinating features/artefacts, but they would be of little wider significance if the contemporaneous European context did not have a really extraordinary parallel to offer: foot-print/shoe/sandal-formed engravings on Yamnaya/kurgan stelae from theUkraine (Telegin & Mallory 1994), carved and erected some 4500km away (Figure 4). Sandals are widely seen as symbolically loaded, with interpretations ranging from signs of status, power and property to concepts (in a burial context) of walking out of the tomb, towards the underworld in the case of sandal tips facing downwards (e.g. Mallory & Adams 1997). While we may only partly comprehend the symbolism, it is just one example of pan-European interconnectivity in the early third millennium BC, centuries before the Bell Beaker expansion around 2500 BC. This is what really matters, not the simple genetic transmission from Yamnaya to CWC."

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Instead of some kind of unexplainable pan-European network from Iberia to Russia as Heyd (and Manco, who really brought up the stelae point) suggests, might I have the answer? Certainly, if we consider the point about copper metallurgy, any connections between Southern Iberia and the Steppe cannot have come over land, as Northern Iberia received copper much later (and so the answer lies with the Mediterranean, or maybe the Maghreb). I probably don't have the exact answers, maybe only somewhat, but that paper gives some authority to the connections made at least. I won't post this map forever by the way, but I don't think I've posted it in embedded form yet?

 

[Pip]

Wait, we have Suvorovo samples?

We have about 40 Suvorovo cemeteries, each containing mostly up to 10 graves. Disappointingly, I am aware of only 2 samples being analysed for DNA, and even more disappointingly mtDNA only. The mtDNA is however revealing in that both of the samples' haplotypes of K are found only in the Middle East. These samples are in a Transylvanian site linked with copper deposits and showing signs of EEF/Anatolian admixture (narrow faces and gracile skulls).

We know that there was a Suvorovo cemetery near Varna. We know that the copper found in cemeteries right across to Eastern Ukraine was sourced from Bulgaria. The dates of the earliest Suvorovo cemeteries in Bulgaria match the dates of two samples found in Chalcolithic Bulgaria (Varna and Smyadovo) - the aDNA of both samples best fits with an almost exact 50:50 split between Khvalynsk and Central Anatolian Neolithic. I would say that both samples are almost certainly Suvorovo-descended.

I wonder whether people don't want to find out anything more about Suvorovo DNA, because it appears to bear little resemblance to Sredny Stog, its culture looks to have spread from West to East, and it throws a spanner in the works of the cliche that everything originated with Yamnayans. The tacit assumption is that the Suvorovo, after spreading and flourishing over a huge area, died and out and disappeared completely, leaving no descendants or DNA traces whatsoever. This is not an assumption that I find believable, especially when Bell Beaker, Corded Ware, Vucedol and El Portalon all autosomally best-fit with it.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

We have about 40 Suvorovo cemeteries, each containing mostly up to 10 graves. Disappointingly, I am aware of only 2 samples being analysed for DNA, and even more disappointingly mtDNA only. The mtDNA is however revealing in that both of the samples' haplotypes of K are found only in the Middle East. These samples are in a Transylvanian site linked with copper deposits and showing signs of EEF/Anatolian admixture (narrow faces and gracile skulls).

We know that there was a Suvorovo cemetery near Varna. We know that the copper found in cemeteries right across to Eastern Ukraine was sourced from Bulgaria. The dates of the earliest Suvorovo cemeteries in Bulgaria match the dates of two samples found in Chalcolithic Bulgaria (Varna and Smyadovo) - the aDNA of both samples best fits with an almost exact 50:50 split between Khvalynsk and Central Anatolian Neolithic. I would say that both samples are almost certainly Suvorovo-descended.

I wonder whether people don't want to find out anything more about Suvorovo DNA, because it appears to bear little resemblance to Sredny Stog, its culture looks to have spread from West to East, and it throws a spanner in the works of the cliche that everything originated with Yamnayans. The tacit assumption is that the Suvorovo, after spreading and flourishing over a huge area, died and out and disappeared completely, leaving no descendants or DNA traces whatsoever. This is not an assumption that I find believable, especially when Bell Beaker, Corded Ware, Vucedol and El Portalon all autosomally best-fit with it.

If we only have two samples and mtDNA only it’s basically useless, but from what you say I’d agree it sounds like Steppe+farmer. I wonder whether it’s indeed possible that the Corded physical type, with its narrow face, dates to this admixture, but I doubt it as Corded Ware only seems somewhat admixed with EEF (and I believe phenotypically distinct)

At the moment, I’m putting my bet on CW being Eneolithic Ukraine + Meshoko

 

[Silesian]

L51 from France ??? Until 2600 BC, R1b is nowhere to be seen in western Europe, save a few outliers who had probably come along with the "farmers". After 2500 BC, they suddenly show up all over central and western Europe. Either L51 had been in Hungary since the old Suvorovo pocket for centuries, or they came along with Yamna Danube.

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I7041 / M
Find location: Szigetszentmiklós-Üdülősor
Country: Hungary
Associated label in publication: Hungary_BA
Date: 2500–2200 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): H1b1
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2 (L151)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)
Comments: null
Other references: null

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5666 / M
Find location: Lochenice
Country: Czech Republic
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2500–1900 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U4a2c
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5025, RISE567 / F
Find location: Kněževes
Country: Czech Republic
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2500–1900 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5b2c
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): null
Reference: 1240k of shotgun data in AllentoftNature2015
Colour group: Steppe (autosomal)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I6480 / M
Find location: Velké Přílepy
Country: Czech Republic
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2500–1900 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U4a2
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I7271 / M
Find location: Brandýsek
Country: Czech Republic
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2500–2200 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U4a2
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I7212 / M
Find location: Radovesice
Country: Czech Republic
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2500–2200 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): K1b1a1+199
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID: RISE564.SG
Location: Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Germany
Haplogroup name
R1b1a1a2a1 (L51)

Sample ID: I5529
Location: Osterhofen-Altenmarkt, Bavaria
Haplogroup name
R1b1a1a2a1a2b1 (L2)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I4132, RISE560 / M
Find location: Augsburg Sportgelände, Augsburg, Bavaria
Country: Germany
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2500–2000 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5a1a1
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2 (P312)
Reference: 1240k of shotgun data in Allentoft Nature 2015
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5748 / M
Find location: De Tuithoorn, Oostwoud, Noord-Holland
Country: The Netherlands
Associated label in publication: Beaker The Netherlands
Date: 2579–2233 calBCE (3945±55 BP, GrN-6650C)
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): X2b4
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2 (P312)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5757 / M
Find location: Sion-Petit-Chasseur, Dolmen XI
Country: Switzerland
Associated label in publication: Beaker Central Europe
Date: 2469–1984 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): H3af
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a (L151)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I2575 / M
Find location: La Fare, Forcalquier
Country: France
Associated label in publication: Beaker Southern France
Date: 2475–2210 calBCE (3895±40 BP, GrA-22988)
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): K1c1
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): no_data
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (autosomal)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I6472 / M
Find location: La Magdalena, Madrid
Country: Spain
Associated label in publication: Beaker Iberia
Date: 2500–2000 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): HV0b
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2 (M269)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I6588 / M
Find location: Humanejos, Madrid
Country: Spain
Associated label in publication: Beaker Iberia
Date: 2500–2000 BCE
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): U5b2b3
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a (L151)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)

Sample ID / genetic sex (M/F): I5665 / M
Find location: Virgazal, Tablada de Rudrón, Burgos
Country: Spain
Associated label in publication: Beaker Iberia
Date: 2280–1984 calBCE (3730±40 BP, Poz-49174)
MtDNA haplogroup (mother): K1a24a
Y-DNA haplogroup (father): R1b1a1a2a1a2 (P312)
Reference: Olalde et al. 2018
Colour group: Steppe (R1b)
Comments: null
Other references: null

https://www.dropbox.com/s/07j243zv81w2dgj/R1b_Descendant_Tree.pdf?dl=0

A great new archaeogenetic resource, showing geographical positions and ancient dates of R1b tree[branches and backbone included] +/- of R1b-Z2103/L51+[brother clades] and R1b-L23!

 

[MOESAN]

It doesn't predict coalescence there, it predicts an origin there. The subclade that split from the rest of L51 at the earliest point (400 years only after L51 was born) is majorly distributed around Southern France and surrounding regions about the West Med. And what do we know, those stelae I mentioned earlier have a huge hotspot in S. France, and these stelae date to the late neo/copper age transitional period...

.

Please, could you tell me which is this very subclade born 400 years after L51 you mention here? Thanks beforehand.

 

[Pip]

More thoughts on minor early West/Central European R1b Steppe-like lineages -

Vucedol (Croatia) - Its autosomal best-fit is Bulgarian Steppe-admixed Chalcolithic (probably Suvorovo) with some Iberian Steppe-admixed Chalcolithic and some Cucuteni-Tripolye (the best-fit has no Yamnayan element). Its yDNA has been identified as G2a2 (similar to Bulgarian Chalcolithic/Cucuteni) and Z2103. However, its Z2103 looks to be of a basal kind unrelated to that found in Yamnaya - its calls are positive for one Z2103-equivalent SNP (Z2105) and negative for another (Y12537), suggesting that it is formational Z2103 that branched off from extant Z2103 before 3,500 BC and is unrelated to all Z2103 surviving today. It appears to be a root branch of R1b-L23 that, like L51, only locates to the West of the Steppe.

El Portalon ATP3 (North Central Spain)- Its autosomal best-fit is Bulgarian Steppe-admixed Chalcolithic (probably Suvorovo) that is significantly heavier on the Anatolian than on the Steppe (the best-fit has no Iberian Neolithic element). Its yDNA has been identified as R1b-M269, but what is often overlooked is that it is also has a positive call for a L21 SNP with no intervening negatives (Y17204). This SNP is rare today, with only a few modern day samples coalescing to Western France. Perhaps it is an example of a R1b-P312 lineage that pre-dated Bell Beaker, and was mostly usurped by related Bell Beaker lineages?

Are we looking here at three related-looking very early R1b offshoot branches that are all western (formational Z2103 in Croatia, pre-Bell Beaker L51 in North Central Spain and Bell Beaker L51 in France)?

 

[Pip]

Please, could you tell me which is this very subclade born 400 years after L51 you mention here? Thanks beforehand.

Per yfull's estimates, the two subclades born at that point were Z2118 and L52.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Please, could you tell me which is this very subclade born 400 years after L51 you mention here? Thanks beforehand.

Z2118 and L52 - I was referring to Z2118, but I believe L52 also has a distribution about the Northern Med (France etc.)

This is the map of Z2118:

 

[MOESAN]

It doesn't predict coalescence there, it predicts an origin there. The subclade that split from the rest of L51 at the earliest point (400 years only after L51 was born) is majorly distributed around Southern France and surrounding regions about the West Med. And what do we know, those stelae I mentioned earlier have a huge hotspot in S. France, and these stelae date to the late neo/copper age transitional period...

.

Please, could you tell me which is this very subclade born 400 years after L51 you mention here? Thanks beforehand.

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

Please, could you tell me which is this very subclade born 400 years after L51 you mention here? Thanks beforehand.

I've said, R-Z2118

 

[MOESAN]

Per yfull's estimates, the two subclades born at that point were Z2118 and L52.

Thanks Pip.
the L52 would be 1 French
I found 2 Z2118*: 1 Italian and 1 Turk
+ 1 SNP: 2: 1 English and 1 Italian
+ 2 SNP: 6: 3 Germans, 1 Italian, 1 Irish, 1 Puerto Rico (which country?)
If I understand well, not only Southwestern?