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Thread: Latest Reich talk on ancient Dna

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    Quote Originally Posted by Angela View Post
    It occurred to me that if we look at the "newcomer" samples from the upcoming Olalde paper on Bell Beaker in Spain, and if they are at all representative, the migration was definitely not male skewed.



    It's difficult to count them, but it looks to be fairly even.

    The Reich Lab has maintained that for quite a while. It was the subject of that controversy they had last year, where they issued a response to someone else's paper, a paper which had said it was basically a male dominated migration.

    If, therefore, 60% of the ancestry of the subsequent admixed people was local, then presumably it would be because they practiced some sort of polygamy, yes?
    What the graph says that after steppe people came, they mixed and autosomally fall in between, with ydna being mostly from new comers, conclusion is that males were wiped out, and the thing that puts them in the middle between 2 populations is female component.


    Farmer populations haven't invented wheel, or domesticated horse, they were probably small and peaceful communities living near the rivers, while steppe people were warlike, and able to move resources due to invention of wheels and carts

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    So, the authors are deliberately misrepresenting the data? They're lying?
    I'm not saying that. I'm merely pointing out the selective sampling/omission of data and the misleading terminology underlying this presentation, which naturally inclines me to place less reliance on the authors' assurances than I otherwise would.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    I'm simply accepting the authors' conclusion: that those samples don't trace back through Europe to the steppes and weren't part of the population movement they were illustrating. Maybe to Iran (Zagros Mtns.), as part of the earlier spread of agriculture or metallurgy.
    Iran is highly unlikely, as these samples have a negligible Iran Neolithic component, and some have no Iran Neolithic component whatsoever. The samples are a best-fit mix of Balkan Chalcolithic with Suvorovo-steppic admixture and Anatolian.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    If the "steppic proportions had diminished markedly by 3,000 BC," when and where did they formerly represent a significantly higher proportion of the population?
    It is impossible to say, as there are very few sites before 3,000 BC that have provided enough samples to enable any meaningful estimate of population proportions. For what it's worth, the El Portalon site near Burgos has 2 samples dated before 3,050 BC, which both show markedly higher steppic proportions, so we can say that they represent 100% of the population.

    Prior to 3,100 BC, yfull estimates that there were only two extant R1b-L51 lineages, so it would seem unlikely that these 'steppic' L51 people represented a very numerous population anywhere.

    These Iberian steppic M269 people branched off most recently from Central European steppic M269 Bell Beaker people - the only differences being that:
    1. The Iberian group appears to have had a higher Anatolian:EHG proportion
    2. The Central European group appears to have had some additional Ukrainian/East Carpathian admixture.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalmat View Post
    What the graph says that after steppe people came, they mixed and autosomally fall in between, with ydna being mostly from new comers, conclusion is that males were wiped out, and the thing that puts them in the middle between 2 populations is female component.
    Let's not forget that most of the newcomers' male lineages were probably wiped out as well, with only the only predominant DF27 lineage ultimately thriving.

    Quote Originally Posted by Dalmat View Post
    Farmer populations haven't invented wheel, or domesticated horse, they were probably small and peaceful communities living near the rivers, while steppe people were warlike, and able to move resources due to invention of wheels and carts
    Possibly, but I don't know if we can really generalise like that. It might alternatively have been the case (in at least some locations) that the 'steppic' people were just small groups of travellers who were distrusted and subjected to attack from aggressively-protective farming communities.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Iran is highly unlikely, as these samples have a negligible Iran Neolithic component, and some have no Iran Neolithic component whatsoever. The samples are a best-fit mix of Balkan Chalcolithic with Suvorovo-steppic admixture and Anatolian.
    Well, south of the Caucasus, which includes eastern Anatolia and the Zagros Mtns:

    Maciamo:

    With its 32% of Caucaso-Gedrosian, 14% of Northern European ancestry, 6% of European Hunter-Gatherer and 3.8% of Veddoid, it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period. But if so, how did his lineage not get more admixed along the way ? Neolithic farmers all over Europe were overwhelmingly (and often exclusively) Southern-European in admixture.

    What baffles me the most is that this individual's ancestors managed to maintain a relatively pure West and South Asian admixture while crossing all Europe at the height of the Neolithic. Could it represent a migration of copper metallurgists from Anatolia to Iberia ? R1b tribes from the Pontic Steppe are thought to have started invading the Balkans several centuries before the Yamna period, from c. 4200 BCE. Copper metallurgy was already well implanted in the Balkans by then, but may have been brought from central Anatolia. An alternative scenario is that R1b-M269 invaders took wives with high Middle Eastern admixture in copper towns in the Balkans, and that their descendants spread metallurgy fairly quickly all the way to Iberia. If that is the case, the Southern-European component might be Balkanic rather than Iberian.
    https://www.eupedia.com/forum/thread...l=1#post466264
    "I think Marija's 'kurgan hypothesis' has been magnificently vindicated by recent work." --Lord Colin Renfrew, 4/18/2018.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Well, south of the Caucasus, which includes eastern Anatolia and the Zagros Mtns
    Yes, this is a good summary from Maciamo.

    He suggests that Iberian ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry - the chart is labelled 'Steppe ancestry gets to Iberia', but the earliest Steppe ancestry that we find in Iberia is excluded from it.

    Iran no, but an ancestral fit with the Western end of the Zagros mountains (North Western Syria, where it reaches the Mediterranean) is entirely possible - the other early sample ATP7 has no Iran/CHG component, but does have Anatolian and Natufian elements.

    Maciamo gives two possible explanations:
    1. Pre-IE Anatolian M269 crossing the Caucasus into the Steppe
    2. A Balkanic mix of metallurgical Central Anatolian people with the R1b tribes that 'invaded' the Balkans during the 5th millennium BC

    Both are possible, but 2 fits better with the data, and it is the best fit with R1b Bell Beaker too. Both have the same basic ancestral best-fits, both are R1b-M269 (and probably L51), and these two likely-related populations appear to fully admix with each other (and with Neolithic Iberians) in Bronze Age Iberia. I would say that to ignore this initial wave into Iberia is to miss out an important part of the story.

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    I am in agreement with the previous comment.


    I lack in these studies something that resolves the argaric mystery, which of course if it is not clarified wrong we go.


    Argaric culture with haplogroup R1b and autosomas "steppe", located in the center of what later will be the Iberian-Tartessic culture, with several archaeological sites, one of them, La Bastida of supreme importance, since it has been compared with the Anatolian Troy


    Because in the study on Iberia there is no reference to this extraordinary culture?

    Moreover, I would go so far as to say that the key between the languages and the R1b "Estepario" is in the Argaric Culture and it is incomprehensible that the importance it has is not attributed to it.

    It is to say, that it makes a city of its own in the Middle East like the bastide transported to the other side of the Mediterranean, with R1B males and autosomes from the steppes, which I understand would not be many cities like that in the steppes.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Yes, this is a good summary from Maciamo.

    He suggests that Iberian ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry - the chart is labelled 'Steppe ancestry gets to Iberia', but the earliest Steppe ancestry that we find in Iberia is excluded from it.
    Except he hypothesizes that ATP3 "could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period." Therefore, ancestral to M269 steppe populations, but not from the steppe.

    Maciamo gives two possible explanations:
    1. Pre-IE Anatolian M269 crossing the Caucasus into the Steppe
    2. A Balkanic mix of metallurgical Central Anatolian people with the R1b tribes that 'invaded' the Balkans during the 5th millennium BC
    He's not saying that ATP3's ancestors migrated to the steppe and then through Europe to Iberia (very unlikely, considering the early date), but that they were an offshoot that migrated to Iberia via Anatolia (maritime route).

    His "Balkanic" route is also via Anatolia, not via the steppes.

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    Comparativa entre El Argar y Neolítico R1b1-K1 (Reino Unido)
    https://dnaresultsandalusianspain.bl...-el-argar.html

    relación entre El Argar y mi propio Kit de
    https://dnaresultsandalusianspain.bl...-el-argar.html

    comparación Entre el Arma y el Neolítico Kit Británico y mi propio
    https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PvXn49qVDpg/es/es/es/es/es/Jp/es/Aplique_es_es/es/espanol/espanol/es/espanol/espanol /s1600/_GZ7045263_EB4566.JPEG

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dalmat View Post
    What the graph says that after steppe people came, they mixed and autosomally fall in between, with ydna being mostly from new comers, conclusion is that males were wiped out, and the thing that puts them in the middle between 2 populations is female component.


    Farmer populations haven't invented wheel, or domesticated horse, they were probably small and peaceful communities living near the rivers, while steppe people were warlike, and able to move resources due to invention of wheels and carts
    Personnally, what I see here is that the newcomers went along with "their" females between =~ 2500 and 2000 BC, and only a bit later took precursors females what placed them in between; but on this graph, I cannot say they came only as males!

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    I could add they surely took CWC females too because these females seem even a bit more 'steppe' or 'foreign' than them.

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    El Argar center of gravity is S-E, Tartessos one is S-W, with apparently an attested (written) implantation of Celtic speaking people in its northern part - El Argar showed some very east-mediterranean architecture for the ignorant I am, which I don't link to steppic people, and in it, the sepultures evolved, and even among the individual ones, there were two or three modes of burying. I avow I'm a bit astonished by the current results concerning Y-haplos and auDNA and next linguistic territories; maybe more works would show us a more intricated "tableau"? I cannot exclude either an Anatolian or Near-Eastern input, or a South-Balkans/Northern Greece one, without to speak of later new inputs from East mediterranea (Helladic).

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    Quote Originally Posted by MOESAN View Post
    I could add they surely took CWC females too because these females seem even a bit more 'steppe' or 'foreign' than them.
    Or Yamnaya, but yeah this suggestion is criminally underrated

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    My own maps.

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    The modern samples of Greek territory in Turkey are rich in R1b-M269 as we saw in the 2011 study here.
    https://bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.co...471-2148-11-69

    Modern Ukraine isn't ancient Ukraine. The nature of the steppes promotes herding which inherently suggests movement. The Asian hordes most definitely shifted things around since the Iron Age, let alone late Neolithic or Bronze Age when R1b moved west.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Except he hypothesizes that ATP3 "could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period." Therefore, ancestral to M269 steppe populations, but not from the steppe.
    Could be, yes. But regardless of whether they came from or through or dipped in and out of the Steppe and/or Anatolia, what he suggests is that ATP3 had "a bit over half of Steppe ancestry", which is what the study claims to be testing.
    i.e. Similar to R1b Bell Beaker, which could also be descended from the same hypothesised pre-IE Anatolian R1b-M269 and might be not a Steppe population at all, but a brother to M269 Steppe populations.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    He's not saying that ATP3's ancestors migrated to the steppe and then through Europe to Iberia (very unlikely, considering the early date), but that they were an offshoot that migrated to Iberia via Anatolia (maritime route).
    He doesn't say anything about a maritime route in the quote you posted (although that is possible). In fact, he proposed that they could have "spread metallurgy fairly quickly all the way to Iberia", indicating a trail (whether overland or coastal).

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    His "Balkanic" route is also via Anatolia, not via the steppes.
    Maciamo explores both possibilities - descent from people who migrated "directly from Anatolia to Iberia" or people who "would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe".

    In any case, regardless of what Maciamo hypothesises, it is clear there were at least two fairly similar sources of "Steppe ancestry" that became admixed into Iberians at different times, muddying the waters somewhat, especially as this "Steppe ancestry" was already admixed (to different degrees) with Balkan-like EEF before it arrived.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ToBeOrNotToBe View Post
    Or Yamnaya, but yeah this suggestion is criminally underrated
    As with CW, Yamnayan admixture is a possibility, and I am sure that R1b Bell Beaker mixed with both in certain places; but best-fits seem to show no more than the faintest of traces signs of either in the Iberian samples I have looked at. I see the most steppic samples as being most likely pure Central European R1b Bell Beaker.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Could be, yes. But regardless of whether they came from or through or dipped in and out of the Steppe and/or Anatolia, what he suggests is that ATP3 had "a bit over half of Steppe ancestry", which is what the study claims to be testing. i.e. Similar to R1b Bell Beaker, which could also be descended from the same hypothesised pre-IE Anatolian R1b-M269 and might be not a Steppe population at all, but a brother to M269 Steppe populations.
    Depends what he means by "Steppe" in this instance (to or from). If it was "an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period," as he suggests, then no detour through the steppes would be required.

    He doesn't say anything about a maritime route in the quote you posted (although that is possible). In fact, he proposed that they could have "spread metallurgy fairly quickly all the way to Iberia", indicating a trail (whether overland or coastal).
    He hypothesizes that they might have "directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period," which implies by water as, at least, the more likely route. Or it could represent a later "migration of copper metallurgists from Anatolia to Iberia," once again bypassing the steppes. I take the latter to be his preferred theory, with a stopover in the Balkans to pick up the "Balkan-like EEF" they carried.

    Maciamo explores both possibilities - descent from people who migrated "directly from Anatolia to Iberia" or people who "would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe".
    The full quote, as opposed to your snippets, does not support your interpretation:

    "In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period."
    That doesn't mean that M269 originating south of the Caucasus, and then taking a long detour over the Caucasus Mtns, and then across the steppes and the whole of Europe, to arrive in Iberia, relatively unadmixed in c.3500 BCE is impossible. Just improbable.

    In any case, regardless of what Maciamo hypothesises, it is clear there were at least two fairly similar sources of "Steppe ancestry" that became admixed into Iberians at different times, muddying the waters somewhat, especially as this "Steppe ancestry" was already admixed (to different degrees) with Balkan-like EEF before it arrived.
    A few isolated samples over half a millennia might represent an input, but they don't look to be a migration or wave that transformed the population.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Depends what he means by "Steppe" in this instance (to or from).
    I'm pretty confident that "Steppe ancestry" was meant to signify coming from the Steppe, rather than going to it.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    If it was "an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period," as he suggests, then no detour through the steppes would be required.
    Not required, but still one of the possibilities.
    Even if these cattle herders did not migrate through the Steppe, the point is that they still seem to have had what Maciamo identifies as Steppe ancestry from some prior stage.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    That doesn't mean that M269 originating south of the Caucasus, and then taking a long detour over the Caucasus Mtns, and then across the steppes and the whole of Europe, to arrive in Iberia, relatively unadmixed in c.3500 BCE is impossible. Just improbable.
    Many things seem improbable - like one man with R1b-L151 circa 2,800 BC spawning direct descendants that became the majority population over half a continent within a few hundred years.
    The idea that M269 people remained unadmixed up to when they set sail from South (or North) of the Caucasus and ended up (still unadmixed) in North West inland Spain also looks improbable to me. Yet we can see patches of Anatolian DNA improbably spreading across much of Europe during the Neolithic and remaining relatively unadmixed.
    I don't generally base estimates on what I summarily think looks probable or improbable, but simply take what fits best with the available data.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    A few isolated samples over half a millennia might represent an input, but they don't look to be a migration or wave that transformed the population.
    Unless all the descendants of these people died without leaving any offspring, then they would indeed have genetically transformed the population to some extent. The question is - to what extent? Autosomal analysis suggests that either they or related people who came West with them were most likely a significant determinant (perhaps 25%) of Bronze Age Iberian. Just because a single lineage from one sub-sub-subclade DF27 ended up dominating Iberia paternally, this doesn't mean to say that all autosomal Steppe ancestry in Iberia was admixed into it through DF27 men.

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    A third group is missing to complete the triangulation that would have created the conflict in which that supposed male lineage would have disappeared.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Carlos View Post
    A third group is missing to complete the triangulation that would have created the conflict in which that supposed male lineage would have disappeared.
    What do you mean by this? I would be grateful if you would expand on it. To which supposed male lineage are you referring? And why do you say we need a third group to have created a conflict?
    (The data suggests to me, in any case, that there were at least three groups - the Iberian Neolithics, the 4th millennium BC Eastern newcomers and the 3rd millennium BC Eastern newcomers.)

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    That doesn't mean that M269 originating south of the Caucasus, and then taking a long detour over the Caucasus Mtns, and then across the steppes and the whole of Europe, to arrive in Iberia, relatively unadmixed in c.3500 BCE is impossible. Just improbable.
    Thinking about this, I am not sure that a lack of admixture is improbable at all.
    If, as I estimate, a group including M269 migrated from the Balkans to Iberia, they could have done this within a couple of months on foot, let alone on horseback. I don't see why it is probable for the men in this group to have left the families who likely came with them, and instead kidnapped lots of female strangers to mate with from the suspicious communities they came across along the route. It seems far more likely to me that they would have predominantly bred within their own communities and stayed unadmixed, at least for the first few generations.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I'm pretty confident that "Steppe ancestry" was meant to signify coming from the Steppe, rather than going to it.
    Not necessarily: "it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period.

    Ultimately "steppe" is simply a profile based on Yamnaya - whether M269 and associated admixtures originated from the steppe or south of the Caucasus is unclear.

    Even if these cattle herders did not migrate through the Steppe, the point is that they still seem to have had what Maciamo identifies as Steppe ancestry from some prior stage.
    Exactly.

    Many things seem improbable - like one man with R1b-L151 circa 2,800 BC spawning direct descendants that became the majority population over half a continent within a few hundred years.
    The idea that M269 people remained unadmixed up to when they set sail from South (or North) of the Caucasus and ended up (still unadmixed) in North West inland Spain also looks improbable to me. Yet we can see patches of Anatolian DNA improbably spreading across much of Europe during the Neolithic and remaining relatively unadmixed.
    Which is the rub. With EEF moving into Iberia (last half of 4th Millennium?), they likely remained unadmixed because 1) they brought their wives and daughters with them and 2) the resident hunter-gatherer population was sparse and thinly spread. Archaeology shows every indication that they came from the Aegean. My hypothesis is a simple one: M269 individuals (or a small group) simply hitched a ride (probably without "cattle," although maybe with some calves). There is no data, genetic or archaeological, that indicate they ever amounted to more than outliers and exceptions.

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Not necessarily: "it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period.

    Ultimately "steppe" is simply a profile based on Yamnaya - whether M269 and associated admixtures originated from the steppe or south of the Caucasus is unclear.



    Exactly.



    Which is the rub. With EEF moving into Iberia (last half of 4th Millennium?), they likely remained unadmixed because 1) they brought their wives and daughters with them and 2) the resident hunter-gatherer population was sparse and thinly spread. Archaeology shows every indication that they came from the Aegean. My hypothesis is a simple one: M269 individuals (or a small group) simply hitched a ride (probably without "cattle," although maybe with some calves). There is no data, genetic or archaeological, that indicate they ever amounted to more than outliers and exceptions.
    Simpler: There is no datas that let an open door for M269 to come from Anatolia with Farming. Especially when the related V88, P297 and V1636 seems more and more originating in Europe. Even M73, M269 brother seems Steppe related. I'm not sure how Gimbutas was vindicated but Renfrew was resurected, as he believe?

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Exactly.
    Oh good, we do agree - our semantic debate is over! It was becoming a bit like a theological discussion, trying to decipher the true meaning of Maciamo's word.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Which is the rub. With EEF moving into Iberia (last half of 4th Millennium?), they likely remained unadmixed because 1) they brought their wives and daughters with them and 2) the resident hunter-gatherer population was sparse and thinly spread.
    Agreed, these people were of mixed Steppe and Anatolian ancestry, whichever way they migrated over (method and route currently unknown). They could have brought their wives and daughters with them, whether they migrated by sea or land.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Archaeology shows every indication that they came from the Aegean. My hypothesis is a simple one: M269 individuals (or a small group) simply hitched a ride (probably without "cattle," although maybe with some calves). There is no data, genetic or archaeological, that indicate they ever amounted to more than outliers and exceptions.
    Possibly the Aegean, as genetic data indicates that their autosomal analysis fits optimally with samples just a couple of hundred miles away in Bulgaria.
    I don't agree there is no genetic data indicating that they successfully bred. Firstly, mixing Central European Bell Beaker with Iberian Neolithic does not give the optimal fit for Iberian Bronze Age - to improve on the fit, you need to factor in a proportion of El Portalon. Secondly, a very similar autosomal fit pops up in Vucedol, which I believe is most likely related to the older El Portalon samples - and this is what leans me to the hypothesis that some M269 ancestors of El Portalon and Vucedol migrated westwards from Bulgaria up the Danube (quite possibly, as you hypothesise, by boat). And if they did hitch a ride, they might well have done so in return for protection services.
    .

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Simpler: There is no datas that let an open door for M269 to come from Anatolia with Farming. Especially when the related V88, P297 and V1636 seems more and more originating in Europe. Even M73, M269 brother seems Steppe related. I'm not sure how Gimbutas was vindicated but Renfrew was resurected, as he believe?
    Yes, M269 looks most likely Steppe in origin, but there is no reason why a small number of M269 individuals couldn't have hitched a ride on the coat tails of Anatolian farmers and branched off successfully out of it into Central Europe. This is not saying that M269 came with the Neolithic expansion, but that small groups of them could have found niches for themselves in it during the late Neolithic. This could actually be simpler than the whole lot of L51 suddenly moving over to the other side of the continent lock, stock and barrel, leaving no traces of themselves behind.

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