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Thread: Latest Reich talk on ancient Dna

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    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    Why be defensive? I've only said that others have claimed your methodology and analyses are flawed. They have. You bristled at them too, challenging them (like me) to prove you wrong. (One thing I've always enjoyed about Mallory is his willingness to openly acknowledge the weaknesses, or unanswered questions, in his own argument, bending over backwards, to show he's not stacking the deck - Mallory's critics are mostly mining Mallory.)
    I have no point to prove, no career to protect, no peers to impress and no agenda. I'm not challenging anyone to prove me wrong; I'm simply asking people to show me any other evidence they have that demonstrates anything different. And I'm still waiting.

    In fact, there's nothing much for me to be wrong about - all I am doing is calculating simple statistics based on readily available data. If the data I am using is inaccurate, what does the data that is accurate show if this is something different?

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    If there is a hidden early R1b population, it will show up as more samples become available. So far, it hasn't, it seems to me, but I'm not saying it won't, connecting the dots and bridging the gaps.
    I'm not saying that there was an early 'R1b population' at El Portalon; in fact, we know that it comprised a mixture of yDNA haplogroups, of which R1b was merely one.

    This population isn't 'hidden' at all - it provides us with 8 published samples. And it doesn't look at like these people all died out without a trace, as other ATP samples dated hundreds of years later have similar autosomal profiles to the early R1b-M269 one, and it is confirmed in an academic study that these ATP people show affinity to modern day Basques.

    Quote Originally Posted by CrazyDonkey View Post
    I've said that three samples within a millennium doesn't look like a "wave" to me. That isn't "semantics", but the use of a common word with a common meaning. Appearances can sometimes be deceptive, however.
    I'm not really bothered whether it is called a wave or a ripple; it reflects a migration of people about which we have data, and to ignore it is irrational.

    The Basque-speaking population of Spain represents only about 1.5% of its inhabitants. This doesn't mean to say we should treat it as 'noise' and exclude it from any analysis.

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    Guys, early EHG migrations could also be linked with I2a2, not necessarly R1b. When you have a cline who says that M269 came from Iberia and another says that it came from Northeast Syria and another says it came from Chalcolithic Balkans. You can then deduce something is wrong somewhere. Probably let's wait for samples.

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    1 out of 2 members found this post helpful.
    The evidence that there were two migrations into Iberia of autosomally-related (mixed Anatolian/EHG) populations containing R1b-M269 (one 4th millennium BC, one 3rd millennium BC) might provide an answer to both language questions. The first group of immigrants seem to have had a higher Anatolian:EHG ratio, and so coalesced around an Anatolian language ancestral to Basque; the second group seem to have had a lower Anatolian:EHG ratio, and so coalesced around a steppic Indo-European language.

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    Every time I scroll I get Why not start with your first post today and become an active part of Eupedia today!. Annoying.

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    vade retro clickbait bot!

    seriously, whichever bot can make an account here?
    "What I've seen so far after my entire career chasing Indoeuropeans is that our solutions look tissue thin and our problems still look monumental" J.P.Mallory

    "The ultimate homeland of the group [PIE] that also spread Anatolian languages is less clear." D. Reich

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Associations:
    Basques - 41% aDNA best fit El Portalon, 70% R1b-DF27
    Spain (other) - 28% aDNA best fit El Portalon, 40% R1b-DF27
    W Europe (other) - <25% aDNA best fit El Portalon, <25% R1b-DF27

    The strongly positive correlations between El Portalon, R1b-DF27 and Basque-speaking would suggest that the earliest steppic (El Portalon) newcomers were most likely ancestral to the DF27 lineages predominant in modern Spain and were the people that introduced to Spain the language that was ancestral to Basque.

    This is consistent with yfull's age estimates, which have even the earliest El Portalon sample (of unknown R1b-M269) falling within its confidence interval for DF27's TMRCA.

    It also provides an explanation for why later Iberian females were more heavily steppic than the R1b males - Iberian DF27 was bringing in females derived from its more heavily steppic R1b-P312 relatives to the North.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I've just seen a published study pointing out the same thing https://www.pnas.org/content/112/38/11917 - "The El Portalón individuals showed the greatest genetic affinity to Basques". Perhaps as 'academics' have said it, it might now be worthy of consideration?
    Basques were closer to El Portalón individuals (or equally close for Gok2) compared with all other early farmers
    Next time read the paper itself, not just the intro.

    By the way, to refute your model, have a look at the Sup Info figure S10. In the Treemix there are three samples with elevated ANE levels: Motala12, Ajvide58 and off course Mal'ta, being the definition of ANE. None are picked to be the admixture in ATP2. ANE is *the* marker of steppe admixture and *the* major part of EHG. Yet still, Treemix prefers a Loschbour admixture into ATP2.

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    Quote Originally Posted by epoch View Post
    Next time read the paper itself, not just the intro.
    "However, all other early farmers were closer to Sardinians (SI Appendix, Figs. S11 and S12), and Basques were closer to El Portalón individuals (or equally close for Gok2) compared with all other early farmers."

    Next time read the whole sentence, not just part of it.

    Quote Originally Posted by epoch View Post
    By the way, to refute your model, have a look at the Sup Info figure S10. In the Treemix there are three samples with elevated ANE levels: Motala12, Ajvide58 and off course Mal'ta, being the definition of ANE. None are picked to be the admixture in ATP2. ANE is *the* marker of steppe admixture and *the* major part of EHG. Yet still, Treemix prefers a Loschbour admixture into ATP2.
    I was hoping for a proper refutation.

    Loschbour and Mal'ta are from tens of thousands of years beforehand; their descendants and those of people related to them had dispersed all over the place by 3,400 BC, and have little to do with the degree of association between El Portalon and modern populations. And despite the study concluding that "ATP2 groups exclusively with the Basque populations, all other ingroups are rejected", ATP2 is the pretty much the least Basque-associated of all the eight El Portalon samples (deriving predominantly from prior Neolithic Iberian admixture).

    As the study identifies, the closest group on the Iberian Peninsula to the El Portalon cluster "are Basques (both people living inthe Basque country, Pais Vasco, and self-identifying Basques from France and Spain)." And the other factor that distinguishes Basques from other populations is the much higher proportion of R1b-DF27. For some reason, people don't want to recognise it, but autosomal fits to El Portalon, y-DNA R1b-DF27 and speaking Basque appear to be closely associated with each other.

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    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    I was hoping for a proper refutation.
    And you got one.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    Loschbour and Mal'ta are from tens of thousands of years beforehand;
    Loschbour is 6000 BC, as is Motala12. Ajvide is contemporaneous to ATP2. Check Fig 1 of the paper.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    their descendants and those of people related to them had dispersed all over the place by 3,400 BC, and have little to do with the degree of association between El Portalon and modern populations.
    Loschbour and Motala are closer in time to ATP2 than ATP2 is to Basques. Also, farmers were dispersed all over the place by 3400 BC as well.


    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    And despite the study concluding that "ATP2 groups exclusively with the Basque populations, all other ingroups are rejected", ATP2 is the pretty much the least Basque-associated of all the eight El Portalon samples (deriving predominantly from prior Neolithic Iberian admixture).
    It is also the best genome: 4.08 coverage, 0.1 contamination estimate, see Table 1. The rest is far worse.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    As the study identifies, the closest group on the Iberian Peninsula to the El Portalon cluster "are Basques (both people living inthe Basque country, Pais Vasco, and self-identifying Basques from France and Spain)." And the other factor that distinguishes Basques from other populations is the much higher proportion of R1b-DF27. For some reason, people don't want to recognise it, but autosomal fits to El Portalon, y-DNA R1b-DF27 and speaking Basque appear to be closely associated with each other.
    Your claim of ATP samples being "EHG heavy" is refuted in the paper itself, since Motala12, a sample with large EHG ancestry, is rejected as HG admixture in the ATP samples whereas the non-EHG admixted hunter-gatherers are feasible as HG-admixture in the ATP samples. That is what the Treemix model says, and in the Sup Info this is worked out with D-stats as well.

    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    There are 8 pre-Bronze Age samples from El Portalon - the first 2 (EHG-heavy) of which span an estimated period of 295 years. The newcomers clearly didn't die out without leaving any descendants, when their DNA was still thriving 295 years later.

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    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful.
    All this talk about Mal'ta, Loschbour & Motala12 is an irrelevant distraction from my post - which highlights the apparently clear association of Basques with both aDNA El Portalon and yDNA R1b-DF27.
    If you have any information to demonstrate that Basques are not heavily DF27 or do not have the heaviest El Portalon aDNA contribution, I would be interested to see it. All else has no bearing on the matter.
    Based on the data I have seen, it looks like El Portalon was most likely a population that spoke a language ancestral to Basque and that incorporated yDNA R1b-DF27 or ancestor of it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    All else has no bearing on the matter.
    It shows that your method fails.

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    Quote Originally Posted by epoch View Post
    It shows that your method fails.
    Thank you for your positive contribution, and all the insights you've given us on this issue.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Pip View Post
    All this talk about Mal'ta, Loschbour & Motala12 is an irrelevant distraction from my post - which highlights the apparently clear association of Basques with both aDNA El Portalon and yDNA R1b-DF27.
    If you have any information to demonstrate that Basques are not heavily DF27 or do not have the heaviest El Portalon aDNA contribution, I would be interested to see it. All else has no bearing on the matter.
    Based on the data I have seen, it looks like El Portalon was most likely a population that spoke a language ancestral to Basque and that incorporated yDNA R1b-DF27 or ancestor of it.
    Well the thing is, the obvious fact that Basque would be El Portalon and R1b-DF27 have source to the 100% y-dna replacement and 40% replacement with Eastern ancestry wich probably have increase following the centuries. It's not possible that only Basque in Iberia have El Portalon ancestry and not other Iberian groups.

    But what does it inform us about the original language of those Bell Beakers?

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    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    Well the thing is, the obvious fact that Basque would be El Portalon and R1b-DF27 have source to the 100% y-dna replacement and 40% replacement with Eastern ancestry wich probably have increase following the centuries. It's not possible that only Basque in Iberia have El Portalon ancestry and not other Iberian groups.
    I agree. People in various parts of Spain have a mix of mainly Iberian Neolithic, El Portalon and Central European steppic aDNA. It's just that Basques are skewed more heavily towards El Portalon and DF27 than other Spaniards.

    Quote Originally Posted by halfalp View Post
    But what does it inform us about the original language of those Bell Beakers?
    I don't know. But it looks like the Iberian R1b newcomers would have been diverse enough to have spoken at least two different languages - a Basque-ancestral language and probably an Indo-European one.

    All I would suggest is that (i) Basque was probably either an Anatolian language introduced into El Portalon by the first small band of Balkan-ancestral part-R1b migrants, or the language of Iberian Neolithics adopted by these migrants; and (ii) other R1b newcomers to Iberia during the Bronze Age probably spoke a Steppe-ancestral Indo-European language.

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