Latest Reich talk on ancient Dna

[MOESAN]

What the graph says that after steppe people came, they mixed and autosomally fall in between, with ydna being mostly from new comers, conclusion is that males were wiped out, and the thing that puts them in the middle between 2 populations is female component.


Farmer populations haven't invented wheel, or domesticated horse, they were probably small and peaceful communities living near the rivers, while steppe people were warlike, and able to move resources due to invention of wheels and carts

Personnally, what I see here is that the newcomers went along with "their" females between =~ 2500 and 2000 BC, and only a bit later took precursors females what placed them in between; but on this graph, I cannot say they came only as males!

 

[MOESAN]

I could add they surely took CWC females too because these females seem even a bit more 'steppe' or 'foreign' than them.

 

[MOESAN]

El Argar center of gravity is S-E, Tartessos one is S-W, with apparently an attested (written) implantation of Celtic speaking people in its northern part - El Argar showed some very east-mediterranean architecture for the ignorant I am, which I don't link to steppic people, and in it, the sepultures evolved, and even among the individual ones, there were two or three modes of burying. I avow I'm a bit astonished by the current results concerning Y-haplos and auDNA and next linguistic territories; maybe more works would show us a more intricated "tableau"? I cannot exclude either an Anatolian or Near-Eastern input, or a South-Balkans/Northern Greece one, without to speak of later new inputs from East mediterranea (Helladic).

 

[ToBeOrNotToBe]

I could add they surely took CWC females too because these females seem even a bit more 'steppe' or 'foreign' than them.

Or Yamnaya, but yeah this suggestion is criminally underrated

 

[Carlos]

My own maps.

 

[Aaron1981]

The modern samples of Greek territory in Turkey are rich in R1b-M269 as we saw in the 2011 study here.
https://bmcevolbiol.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/1471-2148-11-69

Modern Ukraine isn't ancient Ukraine. The nature of the steppes promotes herding which inherently suggests movement. The Asian hordes most definitely shifted things around since the Iron Age, let alone late Neolithic or Bronze Age when R1b moved west.

 

[Pip]

Except he hypothesizes that ATP3 "could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period." Therefore, ancestral to M269 steppe populations, but not from the steppe.

Could be, yes. But regardless of whether they came from or through or dipped in and out of the Steppe and/or Anatolia, what he suggests is that ATP3 had "a bit over half of Steppe ancestry", which is what the study claims to be testing.
i.e. Similar to R1b Bell Beaker, which could also be descended from the same hypothesised pre-IE Anatolian R1b-M269 and might be not a Steppe population at all, but a brother to M269 Steppe populations.

He's not saying that ATP3's ancestors migrated to the steppe and then through Europe to Iberia (very unlikely, considering the early date), but that they were an offshoot that migrated to Iberia via Anatolia (maritime route).

He doesn't say anything about a maritime route in the quote you posted (although that is possible). In fact, he proposed that they could have "spread metallurgy fairly quickly all the way to Iberia", indicating a trail (whether overland or coastal).

His "Balkanic" route is also via Anatolia, not via the steppes.

Maciamo explores both possibilities - descent from people who migrated "directly from Anatolia to Iberia" or people who "would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe".

In any case, regardless of what Maciamo hypothesises, it is clear there were at least two fairly similar sources of "Steppe ancestry" that became admixed into Iberians at different times, muddying the waters somewhat, especially as this "Steppe ancestry" was already admixed (to different degrees) with Balkan-like EEF before it arrived.

 

[Pip]

Or Yamnaya, but yeah this suggestion is criminally underrated

As with CW, Yamnayan admixture is a possibility, and I am sure that R1b Bell Beaker mixed with both in certain places; but best-fits seem to show no more than the faintest of traces signs of either in the Iberian samples I have looked at. I see the most steppic samples as being most likely pure Central European R1b Bell Beaker.

 

[CrazyDonkey]

Could be, yes. But regardless of whether they came from or through or dipped in and out of the Steppe and/or Anatolia, what he suggests is that ATP3 had "a bit over half of Steppe ancestry", which is what the study claims to be testing. i.e. Similar to R1b Bell Beaker, which could also be descended from the same hypothesised pre-IE Anatolian R1b-M269 and might be not a Steppe population at all, but a brother to M269 Steppe populations.

Depends what he means by "Steppe" in this instance (to or from). If it was "an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period," as he suggests, then no detour through the steppes would be required.

He doesn't say anything about a maritime route in the quote you posted (although that is possible). In fact, he proposed that they could have "spread metallurgy fairly quickly all the way to Iberia", indicating a trail (whether overland or coastal).

He hypothesizes that they might have "directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period," which implies by water as, at least, the more likely route. Or it could represent a later "migration of copper metallurgists from Anatolia to Iberia," once again bypassing the steppes. I take the latter to be his preferred theory, with a stopover in the Balkans to pick up the "Balkan-like EEF" they carried.

Maciamo explores both possibilities - descent from people who migrated "directly from Anatolia to Iberia" or people who "would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe".

The full quote, as opposed to your snippets, does not support your interpretation:

"In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period."

That doesn't mean that M269 originating south of the Caucasus, and then taking a long detour over the Caucasus Mtns, and then across the steppes and the whole of Europe, to arrive in Iberia, relatively unadmixed in c.3500 BCE is impossible. Just improbable.

In any case, regardless of what Maciamo hypothesises, it is clear there were at least two fairly similar sources of "Steppe ancestry" that became admixed into Iberians at different times, muddying the waters somewhat, especially as this "Steppe ancestry" was already admixed (to different degrees) with Balkan-like EEF before it arrived.

A few isolated samples over half a millennia might represent an input, but they don't look to be a migration or wave that transformed the population.

 

[Pip]

Depends what he means by "Steppe" in this instance (to or from).

I'm pretty confident that "Steppe ancestry" was meant to signify coming from the Steppe, rather than going to it.

If it was "an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period," as he suggests, then no detour through the steppes would be required.

Not required, but still one of the possibilities.
Even if these cattle herders did not migrate through the Steppe, the point is that they still seem to have had what Maciamo identifies as Steppe ancestry from some prior stage.

That doesn't mean that M269 originating south of the Caucasus, and then taking a long detour over the Caucasus Mtns, and then across the steppes and the whole of Europe, to arrive in Iberia, relatively unadmixed in c.3500 BCE is impossible. Just improbable.

Many things seem improbable - like one man with R1b-L151 circa 2,800 BC spawning direct descendants that became the majority population over half a continent within a few hundred years.
The idea that M269 people remained unadmixed up to when they set sail from South (or North) of the Caucasus and ended up (still unadmixed) in North West inland Spain also looks improbable to me. Yet we can see patches of Anatolian DNA improbably spreading across much of Europe during the Neolithic and remaining relatively unadmixed.
I don't generally base estimates on what I summarily think looks probable or improbable, but simply take what fits best with the available data.

A few isolated samples over half a millennia might represent an input, but they don't look to be a migration or wave that transformed the population.

Unless all the descendants of these people died without leaving any offspring, then they would indeed have genetically transformed the population to some extent. The question is - to what extent? Autosomal analysis suggests that either they or related people who came West with them were most likely a significant determinant (perhaps 25%) of Bronze Age Iberian. Just because a single lineage from one sub-sub-subclade DF27 ended up dominating Iberia paternally, this doesn't mean to say that all autosomal Steppe ancestry in Iberia was admixed into it through DF27 men.

 

[Carlos]

A third group is missing to complete the triangulation that would have created the conflict in which that supposed male lineage would have disappeared.

 

[Pip]

A third group is missing to complete the triangulation that would have created the conflict in which that supposed male lineage would have disappeared.

What do you mean by this? I would be grateful if you would expand on it. To which supposed male lineage are you referring? And why do you say we need a third group to have created a conflict?
(The data suggests to me, in any case, that there were at least three groups - the Iberian Neolithics, the 4th millennium BC Eastern newcomers and the 3rd millennium BC Eastern newcomers.)

 

[Pip]

That doesn't mean that M269 originating south of the Caucasus, and then taking a long detour over the Caucasus Mtns, and then across the steppes and the whole of Europe, to arrive in Iberia, relatively unadmixed in c.3500 BCE is impossible. Just improbable.

Thinking about this, I am not sure that a lack of admixture is improbable at all.
If, as I estimate, a group including M269 migrated from the Balkans to Iberia, they could have done this within a couple of months on foot, let alone on horseback. I don't see why it is probable for the men in this group to have left the families who likely came with them, and instead kidnapped lots of female strangers to mate with from the suspicious communities they came across along the route. It seems far more likely to me that they would have predominantly bred within their own communities and stayed unadmixed, at least for the first few generations.

 

[CrazyDonkey]

I'm pretty confident that "Steppe ancestry" was meant to signify coming from the Steppe, rather than going to it.

Not necessarily: "it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period.

Ultimately "steppe" is simply a profile based on Yamnaya - whether M269 and associated admixtures originated from the steppe or south of the Caucasus is unclear.

Even if these cattle herders did not migrate through the Steppe, the point is that they still seem to have had what Maciamo identifies as Steppe ancestry from some prior stage.

Exactly.

Many things seem improbable - like one man with R1b-L151 circa 2,800 BC spawning direct descendants that became the majority population over half a continent within a few hundred years.
The idea that M269 people remained unadmixed up to when they set sail from South (or North) of the Caucasus and ended up (still unadmixed) in North West inland Spain also looks improbable to me. Yet we can see patches of Anatolian DNA improbably spreading across much of Europe during the Neolithic and remaining relatively unadmixed.

Which is the rub. With EEF moving into Iberia (last half of 4th Millennium?), they likely remained unadmixed because 1) they brought their wives and daughters with them and 2) the resident hunter-gatherer population was sparse and thinly spread. Archaeology shows every indication that they came from the Aegean. My hypothesis is a simple one: M269 individuals (or a small group) simply hitched a ride (probably without "cattle," although maybe with some calves). There is no data, genetic or archaeological, that indicate they ever amounted to more than outliers and exceptions.

 

[halfalp]

Not necessarily: "it does indeed look as if ATP3 has a bit over half of Steppe ancestry, but with a higher proportion of northern Middle Eastern and Veddoid than Yamna samples. In other words it could be descended to the pre-Indo-European Anatolian R1b-M269, the group of cattle herders that would cross the Caucasus and settle in the Pontic-Caspian Steppe. So could it be an offshoot of cattle herders that directly migrated from Anatolia to Iberia during the Neolithic period.

Ultimately "steppe" is simply a profile based on Yamnaya - whether M269 and associated admixtures originated from the steppe or south of the Caucasus is unclear.



Exactly.



Which is the rub. With EEF moving into Iberia (last half of 4th Millennium?), they likely remained unadmixed because 1) they brought their wives and daughters with them and 2) the resident hunter-gatherer population was sparse and thinly spread. Archaeology shows every indication that they came from the Aegean. My hypothesis is a simple one: M269 individuals (or a small group) simply hitched a ride (probably without "cattle," although maybe with some calves). There is no data, genetic or archaeological, that indicate they ever amounted to more than outliers and exceptions.

Simpler: There is no datas that let an open door for M269 to come from Anatolia with Farming. Especially when the related V88, P297 and V1636 seems more and more originating in Europe. Even M73, M269 brother seems Steppe related. I'm not sure how Gimbutas was vindicated but Renfrew was resurected, as he believe?

 

[Pip]

Exactly.

Oh good, we do agree - our semantic debate is over! It was becoming a bit like a theological discussion, trying to decipher the true meaning of Maciamo's word.

Which is the rub. With EEF moving into Iberia (last half of 4th Millennium?), they likely remained unadmixed because 1) they brought their wives and daughters with them and 2) the resident hunter-gatherer population was sparse and thinly spread.

Agreed, these people were of mixed Steppe and Anatolian ancestry, whichever way they migrated over (method and route currently unknown). They could have brought their wives and daughters with them, whether they migrated by sea or land.

Archaeology shows every indication that they came from the Aegean. My hypothesis is a simple one: M269 individuals (or a small group) simply hitched a ride (probably without "cattle," although maybe with some calves). There is no data, genetic or archaeological, that indicate they ever amounted to more than outliers and exceptions.

Possibly the Aegean, as genetic data indicates that their autosomal analysis fits optimally with samples just a couple of hundred miles away in Bulgaria.
I don't agree there is no genetic data indicating that they successfully bred. Firstly, mixing Central European Bell Beaker with Iberian Neolithic does not give the optimal fit for Iberian Bronze Age - to improve on the fit, you need to factor in a proportion of El Portalon. Secondly, a very similar autosomal fit pops up in Vucedol, which I believe is most likely related to the older El Portalon samples - and this is what leans me to the hypothesis that some M269 ancestors of El Portalon and Vucedol migrated westwards from Bulgaria up the Danube (quite possibly, as you hypothesise, by boat). And if they did hitch a ride, they might well have done so in return for protection services.
.

 

[Pip]

Simpler: There is no datas that let an open door for M269 to come from Anatolia with Farming. Especially when the related V88, P297 and V1636 seems more and more originating in Europe. Even M73, M269 brother seems Steppe related. I'm not sure how Gimbutas was vindicated but Renfrew was resurected, as he believe?

Yes, M269 looks most likely Steppe in origin, but there is no reason why a small number of M269 individuals couldn't have hitched a ride on the coat tails of Anatolian farmers and branched off successfully out of it into Central Europe. This is not saying that M269 came with the Neolithic expansion, but that small groups of them could have found niches for themselves in it during the late Neolithic. This could actually be simpler than the whole lot of L51 suddenly moving over to the other side of the continent lock, stock and barrel, leaving no traces of themselves behind.

 

[CrazyDonkey]

Simpler: There is no datas that let an open door for M269 to come from Anatolia with Farming. Especially when the related V88, P297 and V1636 seems more and more originating in Europe. Even M73, M269 brother seems Steppe related. I'm not sure how Gimbutas was vindicated but Renfrew was resurected, as he believe?

Iberia was settled by copper-using agriculturalists in the latter part of the 4th Millennium, who archaeologically speaking look to have come from the Aegean (touching on Greece, Crete, Anatolia, and the Balkans). See Ancient Europe by Stuart Piggott (pp. 75-77).

On Renfrew and Gimbutas, see https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pmv3J55bdZc

 

[halfalp]

I'm not talking about the possibilities of R1b going in Anatolia or the Middle-East previously of Steppe Cultures. I'm saying people are trying to make some weird Steppe -> Balkans -> Anatolia -> Balkans/South Caucasus -> IE languages -> Steppe again hypothesis to explain IE languages. It should at the beginning be an alarm signal. The classic Anatolian and Steppe hypothesis both made sense for long years until genetic datas clearly had favorizing a Steppe origin. And Iberia Chalcolithic dont have to be related to IE peoples and Steppe at all. Did Vinca Copper extraction was related to R1b and Steppe? Probably Not.

As far as Maciamo hypothesis, they were right with the datas we had about it. People already linked IE languages with R1b and R1a previously of Steppe Cultures dna in 2015, because of their modern predominance linked with IE languages. Problem is, at this time previously and circa-2010, people mostly used STR diversity to explain things i dont even understand, but i know they dont make sense with post-2015 prehistoric datas.

 

[CrazyDonkey]

I'm not talking about the possibilities of R1b going in Anatolia or the Middle-East previously of Steppe Cultures. I'm saying people are trying to make some weird Steppe -> Balkans -> Anatolia -> Balkans/South Caucasus -> IE languages -> Steppe again hypothesis to explain IE languages. It should at the beginning be an alarm signal. The classic Anatolian and Steppe hypothesis both made sense for long years until genetic datas clearly had favorizing a Steppe origin. And Iberia Chalcolithic dont have to be related to IE peoples and Steppe at all. Did Vinca Copper extraction was related to R1b and Steppe? Probably Not.

As far as Maciamo hypothesis, they were right with the datas we had about it. People already linked IE languages with R1b and R1a previously of Steppe Cultures dna in 2015, because of their modern predominance linked with IE languages. Problem is, at this time previously and circa-2010, people mostly used STR diversity to explain things i dont even understand, but i know they dont make sense with post-2015 prehistoric datas.

Hazardous to equate language and DNA. I doubt any M269-individual coming to Iberia c. 3,500 BCE was an IE speaker - it is just too early, unless he arrived via magic-carpet.