Based on one-way qpAdmmodeling, R437 forms a clade with an individual from Croatia dated to the early Iron Age. In contrast, R850 forms a clade with an individual from Copper Age Anatolia. These two individuals both came from Latin archaeological context, together with four other samples, who can be modeled as two-way mixtures of Copper Age central Italian and Steppe-related ancestries.Two two-way models fit well for R437 and R850: RMPR_CA + Armenia_LBA and RMPR_CA + Anatolia_IA.SG. In both models, the incoming source population is temporally proximate to the Iron Age Italian samples, and their geographic locations point to ancestry input from the Near East. Strikingly, R437 and R850 both carry more ancestry from the incoming source than the preceding local population, highlighting the substantial influence of this “eastern” influence on the genetic makeup of central Italians.
this is what paper states .............Incoming source instead of preceding local population ....ie, immigrants
he is T-L208.........and is the same as these 2 neoltihic samples which did not come from Anatolia ............I0700 (Bulgaria 5800-5400 calBCE) in Malek Bulgaria and I0797 (Germany 5500-4850 BCE) in Karsdorf Germany
Cooper Age to Iron age (Bronze Age between the two). So the incoming source is Steppe, the earlier source is more Neolthic EEF. I read the quote you had above from Antonio et al 2019 Moots (supplement page 11). Here is the rest of the discussion from the Supplement pp. 24-25. The only Iron age Roman that can be fit with a One-way model is the with a sample from Croatia, so up to the Iron Age, connection between Italy and Balkans is clear. From Cooper to Iron, some new ancestry "Steppe" comes in. R850 is related to an older Cooper Age Anatolian. R437 and R850 can be modeled as 2-way sources from Cooper Age Anatolia and Late Bronze Age Armenia and Cooper Age Anatolia and Anatolian Iron Age. So it appears these Pre-Iron Age Italians were EEF+CHG/Iran Neolithic type ancestry before Steppe came in. The closing paragraph is interesting, the 3 Etruscans and 6 Latins (as defined by the paper) are statistically not different. So I always like thinking of it in statistical terms that I am more accustomed to using. the Mean of Etruscans (N=3) and Mean of Latins (N=6) genetic ancestry are not different using a t-test to compare sample means or if you want Medians, you could use a Non-Parametric test using a wilcoxon rank statistic.
The quote from Supplementary of Antonio/Moots et al 2019 (pp. 24-25):
"The only well-fit one-way model is with an Iron Age individual from Croatia dated to 805-761 calBCE,
suggesting that this individual form a clade with Iron Age central Italians, with respect to all the
populations in the “right” set (ANC17). This result, together with those for Neolithic and Copper Age
individuals, points to tight connections between Italy and the Balkans from Neolithic to Iron Ages.
For the Copper Age to Iron Age transition in central Italy, admixture f3 and f4 tests both point to ancestry
input that can be ultimately traced back to west Eurasian Steppe (Tables S13 and S14). This is also
supported by admixture modeling results with qpAdm: most potential source populations in working twoway
models are Bronze or Iron Age populations directly from the Pontic-Caspian Steppe, with one
exception being an Iron Age Pre-scythian individual (Scythian is a nomadic culture complex inhabiting in
vast areas of the west Eurasian Steppe and north to the Black sea) from Hungary.
In consideration of the inter-individual heterogeneity in this period in PCA and ADMIXTURE, we also
performed admixture modeling for each sample separately. Based on the qpAdm results for all Iron Age
samples collectively, we started by testing a two-way model with RMPR_CA and
Russia_Yamnaya_Samara as the source populations and found that it provides reasonable fits (p>0.05)
for eight of the 11 Iron Age individuals (Table S16) but can be rejected for R437, R850 and R475. We
therefore tested for these three individuals alternative one-way, two-way and three-way models, if none of
the simpler models fits.
Based on one-way qpAdm modeling, R437 forms a clade with an individual from Croatia dated to the
early Iron Age. In contrast, R850 forms a clade with an individual from Copper Age Anatolia. These two
individuals both came from Latin archaeological context, together with four other samples, who can be
modeled as two-way mixtures of Copper Age central Italian and Steppe-related ancestries.
Two two-way models fit well for R437 and R850: RMPR_CA + Armenia_LBA and RMPR_CA +
Anatolia_IA.SG. In both models, the incoming source population is temporally proximate to the Iron Age
Italian samples, and their geographic locations point to ancestry input from the Near East. Strikingly,
R437 and R850 both carry more ancestry from the incoming source than the preceding local population,
highlighting the substantial influence of this “eastern” influence on the genetic makeup of central Italians
in Iron Age. Furthermore, the influence of this “eastern” ancestry is not limited to R437 and R850, as
R1016 and R1015 can also be modeled as RMPR_CA + Anatolia_IA.SG, and R1016 (but not R1015) as
RMPR_CA + Armenia_LBA.
The location of R475 in PCA indicates that she (biological sex inferred based on sex chromosome and
autosome coverages) carries more Neolithic Anatolian or African ancestry than her contemporaries.
Further f4 analysis reveals that R475 shares more alleles with Moroccan hunter-gathers and less alleles
with Anatolia farmers, compared to other Italian Iron Age individuals. We were not able to model R475
with any one-way models or as any two-way mixtures with one source being the Copper Age location
population, but two three-way models with an African population as one of the sources provide
reasonable fits (p>0.03): RMPR_CA + Russia_Yamnaya_Samara + Mota and RMPR_CA +
Russia_Yamnaya_Samara + Mota.
Interestingly, although Iron Age individuals were sampled from both Etruscan (n=3) and Latin (n=6)
contexts, we did not detect any significant differences between the two groups with f4 statistics in the
form of f4(RMPR_Etruscan, RMPR_Latin; test population, Onge), suggesting shared origins or extensive
genetic exchange between them."