Why embryo selection doesn't accomplish much

[Angela]

They were looking at height and intelligence.

Honestly, what did they expect? They can only select from what's in the gene pool of the "father" and "mother". Sorry to sound so harsh, but when are not just the general public but scientists going to get that the grandmothers were right: if you want to have smart children or any other trait, pick a mate with those traits. End of story.

See:
http://www.unz.com/isteve/will-embryo-selection-accomplish-much/

 

[Vandemonian]

Just wait:

Similarly, quadrupling the variance explained for IQ would lead to a doubling of the gain, to ≈6 IQ points... This is for selecting from 10 embryos. If they could somehow go to 1000 embryos, they could get to about 10 IQ points.

Given the high heritability for IQ (near .7) the explained variance will likely increase in the future. There will always be room for old-fashioned methods, but this story is far from over.

To me, the real question is how assiduously such technologies will be practiced, and whether they will match or overcome the rate of genetic change due to dysgenic reproduction. One possible outcome is that such procedures could become socially normalized within the upper and middle classes, while the working and underclass continue to reproduce accidentally. Given the amount of effort and sexual restraint required to employ embryo selection, the result will likely increase the genetic quality of the higher classes even as it reduces their share of the total population each generation. Carried on for even a century, the result would be a kind of microspeciation - or more correctly, the generation of two new ethnies, one very wealthy and conspicuously selected for socially positive traits, surrounded by a genetically distant and simpleminded underclass. What might happen then is anyone's guess... but as a cynic, my money's on the Morlocks.

 

[markod]

Just wait:


Given the high heritability for IQ (near .7) the explained variance will likely increase in the future. There will always be room for old-fashioned methods, but this story is far from over.

To me, the real question is how assiduously such technologies will be practiced, and whether they will match or overcome the rate of genetic change due to dysgenic reproduction. One possible outcome is that such procedures could become socially normalized within the upper and middle classes, while the working and underclass continue to reproduce accidentally. Given the amount of effort and sexual restraint required to employ embryo selection, the result will likely increase the genetic quality of the higher classes even as it reduces their share of the total population each generation. Carried on for even a century, the result would be a kind of microspeciation - or more correctly, the generation of two new ethnies, one very wealthy and conspicuously selected for socially positive traits, surrounded by a genetically distant and simpleminded underclass. What might happen then is anyone's guess... but as a cynic, my money's on the Morlocks.

Assortative mating produces very similar effects. Those never last because they tend to be maladaptive. That's why the upper middle classes look dorkier than the general population.

 

[Vandemonian]

Um, no, that's really not true.