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Thread: R1a-CTS1211 > CTS8816 > Y2902 > YP3994 in Albania and in the Balkans

  1. #76
    Regular Member Gannicus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Progon View Post
    According to a peer reviewed scientific paper from 2019, Albanians in Macedonia have ~35% of E-V13, somewhere ~18% R1b and ~13.6% J2b2.

    This paper is more reliable. :)




    Thanks brother, very interesting.

    With the little knowledge of genetics I gathered untill now I deduce albanian and slavic/macedonian haplogroups, got more diversity, as both are NOT recent settlers, but are there from thousands of years, whereas turks have less diversity as they settled in the late ottoman period :)

    I know i'm causing vomit to experts here, as I just denoted my ignorance with this post (as these are the basises and should be given for granted) but i'm here to learn, step by step.
    Cheers!

  2. #77
    Regular Member Gannicus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    They both were involved with Slavic and atypically non Slavic migrations. In the Iron age things could have been different.
    As far as the Balkans M458 only peaks in Bulgarians(7-8%). In other South Slavs its only between 3-5%. Most of that is L1029. And under L1029, YP417 and YP263 dominante(with more in YP417).

    Most R1a in Balkan Slavs is Z280 dominant(more diversity). Bulgarians have a 60/40 split Z280>M458. Macedonians probably being somewhat comparable.

    L1029 is highest in South East Slavs. M458 outside the Balkans is most diverse among Western Slavs. Though 60+%of M458 among Poles is mostly L260.

    Based solely on FTDNA block tree, this is the heatmap for R-L1029.



    As for ancient DNA. Other than MX265 from Switzerland; an upcoming La Tene sample from Iron Age Czech/Bohemia was L1029(in peer review).

    All samples thereafter fall in post-migration Northern Europe. Be they Slavic, Viking or German.

    Based on diversity it likely originated or diversified somewhere around Central/Central East Europe. So far neither M458 sample predating late antiquity are Slavic.
    It remains to be seen whether L1029 in IA Bohemia will split L1029 and be an outlier on the tree or if its on the same level. If its truly La Tene then they likely lived closer to the current TMRCA so its not impossible.

    Regardless I think M458 along with I-Y3120 were originally pre-Slavic that became Proto-Slavic and spread from late antiquity onward.
    Z280 is more complex. Some branches are Baltic. Some are possibly Germanic(basal branches) and others are linked with Balto-Slavs. But Balto-Slavic is long before "Slavic" and "Baltic" separated from each other.
    Here you can find some heatmaps for Z280 subclades.

    https://anthrogenica.com/showthread....phically/page5
    Well, if in my ignorance I could add a thought in regards to this, it makes sense that there is a high concentration of pre-slavic R1a around Poland, otherwise how do you explain the very high levels of R1a among modern poles, compared to south slavs, whose main (I2a) haplogroup supposedly originated in southern poland, wich should come at higher numbers among poles, if the R1a they have today were to be associated with the slavic expansion, therefore with an I2a expansion.

    Hope I give a useful isnight, always open for correction.
    (Afterall i'm here so that u can cover me with insults and critiques hahahaha)

  3. #78
    Regular Member Gannicus's Avatar
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    If I can introduce my suggestions to the conversation.

    Idk what the data regarding this pre-slavic DNA is, but:

    A) if it is mainly found in bulgaria I think it is very likely thracian.

    B) if found more among jugoslavs and less or even non existent among bulgarians it's polish, as we would expect south slavs to have brought some of that pre-slavic polish R1a with them, but not bulgarians who never were in poland.

    Hope I added something meaningful to the conversation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gannicus View Post
    Thanks brother, very interesting.

    With the little knowledge of genetics I gathered untill now I deduce albanian and slavic/macedonian haplogroups, got more diversity, as both are NOT recent settlers, but are there from thousands of years, whereas turks have less diversity as they settled in the late ottoman period :)

    I know i'm causing vomit to experts here, as I just denoted my ignorance with this post (as these are the basises and should be given for granted) but i'm here to learn, step by step.
    Cheers!
    No, on contrary you are curious and that's a very valuable attribute to have.

    E-V13 is strong among Albanians from all regions, it's the most consistent Y-DNA among Albanian speaking people.

  5. #80
    Regular Member Gannicus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Progon View Post
    No, on contrary you are curious and that's a very valuable attribute to have.
    E-V13 is strong among Albanians from all regions, it's the most consistent Y-DNA among Albanian speaking people.
    Thank you very much for the compliment, really appreciate it.
    Yeah, although data is scattered, and we don't have enough tested people we can conclude so, as it is the one that consistently has the highest percentage among different groups of albanians.
    Very interesting stuff!

  6. #81
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    Quote Originally Posted by Gannicus View Post
    If I can introduce my suggestions to the conversation.
    Idk what the data regarding this pre-slavic DNA is, but:
    A) if it is mainly found in bulgaria I think it is very likely thracian.
    B) if found more among jugoslavs and less or even non existent among bulgarians it's polish, as we would expect south slavs to have brought some of that pre-slavic polish R1a with them, but not bulgarians who never were in poland.
    Hope I added something meaningful to the conversation.
    Pre-Slavic DNA was found in Central Europe for these haplogroups not Bulgaria. Bulgaria is just one of the migration points anywhere between late antiquity and early medieval. Among these migrations mostly Slavs and East Germanic groups.

    If M458 and Z280 made it earlier with East La Tene into Thrace, we still have no evidence of that yet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Gannicus View Post
    Well, if in my ignorance I could add a thought in regards to this, it makes sense that there is a high concentration of pre-slavic R1a around Poland, otherwise how do you explain the very high levels of R1a among modern poles, compared to south slavs, whose main (I2a) haplogroup supposedly originated in southern poland, wich should come at higher numbers among poles, if the R1a they have today were to be associated with the slavic expansion, therefore with an I2a expansion.
    Hope I give a useful isnight, always open for correction.
    (Afterall i'm here so that u can cover me with insults and critiques hahahaha)
    These are modern samples in the heatmap. Ancient DNA is too few to make any concrete statements. However, it does appear at present that M458 and Z280 did have occurrences in pre-Slavic Central Europeans.

    If the singular M458* in late Hallstatt and upcoming L1029* in the following lron Age La Tene culture found in Czechia are anything to go by it seems to be found exactly where both are found today.

    Though it remains to be seen if most M458 there today is the reault of pre-slavic M458 or back migration to Central Europe later with Slavic tribes who may have had more Eastern branches of the same line. This at least could be likely for YP417 under L1029 which is the most dominant and universal in Slavic L1029.

    Some point to Western Russia as the origin of L1029 but there seems little to support this. For one, Western Russia was more subject to gene flow from Poland/West Slavs. Also, despite 10% M458, Russian M458 mostly falls into YP417 under L1029 and YP515 under M458.

    The majority of L1029/M458 clades and their diversity, seems to be Central Europe, more specifically Poland, Czechia, East Germany.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    These are modern samples in the heatmap. Ancient DNA is too few to make any concrete statements. However, it does appear at present that M458 and Z280 did have occurrences in pre-Slavic Central Europeans.

    If the singular M458* in late Hallstatt and upcoming L1029* in the following lron Age La Tene culture found in Czechia are anything to go by it seems to be found exactly where both are found today.

    Though it remains to be seen if most M458 there today is the reault of pre-slavic M458 or back migration to Central Europe later with Slavic tribes who may have had more Eastern branches of the same line. This at least could be likely for YP417 under L1029 which is the most dominant and universal in Slavic L1029.

    Some point to Western Russia as the origin of L1029 but there seems little to support this. For one, Western Russia was more subject to gene flow from Poland/West Slavs. Also, despite 10% M458, Russian M458 mostly falls into YP417 under L1029 and YP515 under M458.

    The majority of L1029/M458 clades and their diversity, seems to be Central Europe, more specifically Poland, Czechia, East Germany.
    What history does this northern R1a have with Bulgaria? How is it to have bypassed all the Serbs and made its way to Bulgaria? Surely must be pre south slavic migration group

  9. #84
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    1 members found this post helpful.
    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    Wow, these are odd maps - from these maps it is hard to argue for any of these being proto south slavic yet they carry plenty today. And surely south slavs carried some of these clades when moving into balkans, it would be cool to know which ones are likeliest. In terms of r1a subclade ratio, how would you sum up the south slavic figures using poreklo? Do they have a major group that stands out above the others?
    As for L1029 what do you think is the explanation for this? Is Thracian likely or is it simply a Polish clade? What history can back up this link between the 2 regions. The Thracians were definitely in that area of Bulgaria and others that may have been further north and west could have fled down to this region during the south slavic invasions as a stronghold. Though as we see today there are still small amount of L1029 scattered throughout balkans
    Well, some clades can surely be proto-slavic/proto-south Slavic. More probably the former as opposed to the latter. However, alot of it rests on minimal ancient DNA evidence with modern distributions guiding us. Which can be problematic when taking into account industrialization, and the advent of nationalism, and socio-cultural borders.

    Considering how much the ethnic landscape can change in a few centuries, there's still a gap over a millennium wide between the only 2 ancient M458/L1029 samples we have and the post migration Viking, Slavic and German samples we have from the 8th-14th centuries.

    Just spit balling here, but based on what I have seen it appears out of 18% R1a on poreklo, only about 5% of that is M458. Most of which is YP417 under L1029, and more specifically subclade YP6047 which is found in Croats and Bosnians as well. Though it has a dominant representation amongst Serbs. This and R1a-M458>A11460(a subclade closer to the root of M458) has Serbs forming a clade(1400ybp) and a Pole that is basal who is 2800ybp with them. One of these is a Serb fom Kosova.

    Among Bulgarians, they are 60/40(Z280>M458). Their M458 is dominantly L1029. Within L1029, not counting any less common clusters, YP417 and YP263 dominate, with YP417 being higher than YP263. I'm sure they have L260 as well considering it pops up in Albanians. Though L260 seems most rare among Balkan M458 branches. I may be wrong but I think it showed up in Shkoder and some in the South. We also Plan/Pult clans who are also R1a-M417. Most likely CTS3402 under Z280. Not yet confirmed. Have a couple in Mat and one in Kercove that is likely basal Y33* under Z280, which is quite interesting given the tmrxa is Iron Age.

    Recently an Albanian from North Dibra was A11460 which is common in Serbs. Though it remains to be seen if hes close to those Serbs or form his own branch. Distribution wise most R1a in South East Slavs has a 60/40(Z280>M458). Among South West Slavs Z280 is more dominant. M458 peaks in Bulgarians, more especially central Bulgaria.

    I really don't think L1029 has much to do with Thracians. I wouldn't call it Polish because they didn't even existed when L1029 formed or even when the most recent ancestor lived.

    I think the most you can connect L1029 with Thracians, is potentially East La Tene outlier who brought it into Thracians(now that we have it in La Tene coming up). I still think East La Tene was dominant in R1b though so it would have probably still been more common than L1029, even if one managed to go in that direction.

    And even still , I am of the opinion that L1029 became assimilated into Proto-Slavs so even if its pre-Slavic origin was East La Tene or something else; its movement in late antiquity and early medieval is most probably associated with Slavic migrations, Viking Culture and maybe Ostrogoths. Central European Celts dissappear from mention by the end of the IA.

    I think if any East Germanic or East Celtic peoples are affiliated with M458 or Z280, it would be Bastarnae. There never was a firm agreement on whether they were Germanic, Celtic or Proto-Slavic. They were the most Eastern ones anyways. Theres also the Neuri who are believed to be Proto-Slavic but classified as either Celtic or Baltic by some.

    Z280 is however the original Balto-Slavic line as it united Baltic and Slavic branches of R1a. M458 in Balts has no diversity and only dates to late antiquity and early medieval. Most basal M458 branches appear in Poland so I believe M458 may have originated there or around Czechia. Though its just guesswork based on what we have so far.

    Here's a list of all the M458/L1029 samples. Alot of the Viking samples were "Polish-like". Though on PCA they appeared Baltic shifted. Viking was a profession afterall and Baltic Vikings were some of the last pagans practicing raiding.


    List:

    -760 BCE, Late Hallstatt, Singen, Swabia, Germany
    -Iron Age La Tene, Bohemia, Czechia(in peer review)
    -800 AD, Viking, Galgedil, Funen, Denmark
    -900 AD, Viking, Sigtuna, Uppland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Kurewanicha, Zalesye, Russia
    -900 AD, Viking, Kopparsvik, Gotland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Kopparsvik, Gotland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Frojel, Gotland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Sandomierz, Lesser Poland, Poland
    -900 AD, Viking, Ładoga, Gardariki, Russia
    -900 AD, Viking, Skara, Western Götaland, Sweden
    -973 AD, Viking, Cedynia, Lebusland, Poland.
    -975 AD, Viking, Ciepłe, Pomerania, Poland(2 samples)
    -1060 AD, German admixed Slavs?, Wüstung, Saxom Anhalt, Germany(2 samples)
    -1158 AD, German, Wüstung, Sax.-Anhalt, Germany
    -1100 AD, Usedom, Mecklenburg-V., Germany
    -1200 AD, Rus Viking, Łuck, Wolhynia, Ukraine
    1400 AD, German-Dutch, Oldenzaal, Overijssel, Netherlands.
    1560 AD, Muskovite, Radonież, Moscow, Russia., Sweden.
    973 AD, Viking, Cedynia, Lebusland, Poland.
    975 AD, Viking, Ciepłe, Pomerania, Poland, twice.
    1060 AD, German? Slavic?, Wüstung, Sax.-Anhalt, Germany, twice.
    1158 AD, German, Wüstung, Sax.-Anhalt, Germany.
    1100 AD, Slavic (postViking?), Usedom, Mecklenburg-V., Germany.
    1200 AD, Norse (sic!), Łuck, Wolhynia, Ukraine.
    1400 AD, German-Dutch, Oldenzaal, Overijssel, Netherlands.
    1560 AD, Muskovite, Radonież, Moscow, Russia

    M458 heatmap(may be out of date but includes all branches):


  10. #85
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    Pre-Slavic DNA was found in Central Europe for these haplogroups not Bulgaria. Bulgaria is just one of the migration points anywhere between late antiquity and early medieval. Among these migrations mostly Slavs and East Germanic groups.

    If M458 and Z280 made it earlier with East La Tene into Thrace, we still have no evidence of that yet.
    Wow, very interesting, thanks!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    These are modern samples in the heatmap. Ancient DNA is too few to make any concrete statements. However, it does appear at present that M458 and Z280 did have occurrences in pre-Slavic Central Europeans.

    If the singular M458* in late Hallstatt and upcoming L1029* in the following lron Age La Tene culture found in Czechia are anything to go by it seems to be found exactly where both are found today.

    Though it remains to be seen if most M458 there today is the reault of pre-slavic M458 or back migration to Central Europe later with Slavic tribes who may have had more Eastern branches of the same line. This at least could be likely for YP417 under L1029 which is the most dominant and universal in Slavic L1029.

    Some point to Western Russia as the origin of L1029 but there seems little to support this. For one, Western Russia was more subject to gene flow from Poland/West Slavs. Also, despite 10% M458, Russian M458 mostly falls into YP417 under L1029 and YP515 under M458.

    The majority of L1029/M458 clades and their diversity, seems to be Central Europe, more specifically Poland, Czechia, East Germany.
    Well, it makes sense that Russian R1a is likely to have come from poland rather than have been local, as slavs weren't present in russia before the kievan rus kingdoms went there, founding in the north the merchantile republic of Novgorod, while in the center the tsardom of muscovy, wich would later unify the surrounding lands and become russia.

    Very interesting stuff, thanks for the info!

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    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    What history does this northern R1a have with Bulgaria? How is it to have bypassed all the Serbs and made its way to Bulgaria? Surely must be pre south slavic migration group
    I wouldn't say it bypassed Serbs. Most figures average M458 at 5% in Serbs. Some studies showed 4%, and others 6%. Then they have about 13% Z280 which is of course more dominant.

    In Serbs most of their M458 is L1029>YP417 and M458>A11460. They have some basal L1029* cases who are negative for most downstream clades. I'm not sure if or how much YP263 that have. Probably not much. Seems YP263 is more prevalent in West Slavs/East Germans and of course South East Slavs. L1029/YP263 is also found in North and South Kavkaz like Adyghe, Shapsough, Dargins etc.

    Some branches were probably taken as captives by the Mongols in Central Europe, explaining the Chinese samples in L1029 who share matches with Poles.

    I think the only peoples between late antiquity and early medieval we can connect it with from most to least likely are Proto-Slavs, Vikings, East Germanics, Bulgars, Avars and Huns. In the Iron Age, one would assume some sort of Central European affiliation be it Celtic or otherwise based on the only 2 ancient samples we have.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Illyri View Post
    Thanks for the map. Helpful as always.
    How did you generate it ?
    Can you make one for my terminal subclade?
    It was made by the user ph2ter from Anthrogenica. I can ask him if he can make a map of your clade. It would include only ftdna testers positive YP3994 though. So any from yseq or yfull that didn't test through ftdna won't show on the map.
    Last edited by Dibran; 02-01-21 at 19:36.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    Well, some clades can surely be proto-slavic/proto-south Slavic. More probably the former as opposed to the latter. However, alot of it rests on minimal ancient DNA evidence with modern distributions guiding us. Which can be problematic when taking into account industrialization, and the advent of nationalism, and socio-cultural borders.
    Considering how much the ethnic landscape can change in a few centuries, there's still a gap over a millennium wide between the only 2 ancient M458/L1029 samples we have and the post migration Viking, Slavic and German samples we have from the 8th-14th centuries.
    Just spit balling here, but based on what I have seen it appears out of 18% R1a on poreklo, only about 5% of that is M458. Most of which is YP417 under L1029, and more specifically subclade YP6047 which is found in Croats and Bosnians as well. Though it has a dominant representation amongst Serbs. This and R1a-M458>A11460(a subclade closer to the root of M458) has Serbs forming a clade(1400ybp) and a Pole that is basal who is 2800ybp with them. One of these is a Serb fom Kosova.
    Among Bulgarians, they are 60/40(Z280>M458). Their M458 is dominantly L1029. Within L1029, not counting any less common clusters, YP417 and YP263 dominate, with YP417 being higher than YP263. I'm sure they have L260 as well considering it pops up in Albanians. Though L260 seems most rare among Balkan M458 branches. I may be wrong but I think it showed up in Shkoder and some in the South. We also Plan/Pult clans who are also R1a-M417. Most likely CTS3402 under Z280. Not yet confirmed. Have a couple in Mat and one in Kercove that is likely basal Y33* under Z280, which is quite interesting given the tmrxa is Iron Age.
    Recently an Albanian from North Dibra was A11460 which is common in Serbs. Though it remains to be seen if hes close to those Serbs or form his own branch. Distribution wise most R1a in South East Slavs has a 60/40(Z280>M458). Among South West Slavs Z280 is more dominant. M458 peaks in Bulgarians, more especially central Bulgaria.
    I really don't think L1029 has much to do with Thracians. I wouldn't call it Polish because they didn't even existed when L1029 formed or even when the most recent ancestor lived.
    I think the most you can connect L1029 with Thracians, is potentially East La Tene outlier who brought it into Thracians(now that we have it in La Tene coming up). I still think East La Tene was dominant in R1b though so it would have probably still been more common than L1029, even if one managed to go in that direction.
    And even still , I am of the opinion that L1029 became assimilated into Proto-Slavs so even if its pre-Slavic origin was East La Tene or something else; its movement in late antiquity and early medieval is most probably associated with Slavic migrations, Viking Culture and maybe Ostrogoths. Central European Celts dissappear from mention by the end of the IA.
    I think if any East Germanic or East Celtic peoples are affiliated with M458 or Z280, it would be Bastarnae. There never was a firm agreement on whether they were Germanic, Celtic or Proto-Slavic. They were the most Eastern ones anyways. Theres also the Neuri who are believed to be Proto-Slavic but classified as either Celtic or Baltic by some.
    Z280 is however the original Balto-Slavic line as it united Baltic and Slavic branches of R1a. M458 in Balts has no diversity and only dates to late antiquity and early medieval. Most basal M458 branches appear in Poland so I believe M458 may have originated there or around Czechia. Though its just guesswork based on what we have so far.
    Here's a list of all the M458/L1029 samples. Alot of the Viking samples were "Polish-like". Though on PCA they appeared Baltic shifted. Viking was a profession afterall and Baltic Vikings were some of the last pagans practicing raiding.
    List:
    -760 BCE, Late Hallstatt, Singen, Swabia, Germany
    -Iron Age La Tene, Bohemia, Czechia(in peer review)
    -800 AD, Viking, Galgedil, Funen, Denmark
    -900 AD, Viking, Sigtuna, Uppland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Kurewanicha, Zalesye, Russia
    -900 AD, Viking, Kopparsvik, Gotland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Kopparsvik, Gotland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Frojel, Gotland, Sweden
    -900 AD, Viking, Sandomierz, Lesser Poland, Poland
    -900 AD, Viking, Ładoga, Gardariki, Russia
    -900 AD, Viking, Skara, Western Götaland, Sweden
    -973 AD, Viking, Cedynia, Lebusland, Poland.
    -975 AD, Viking, Ciepłe, Pomerania, Poland(2 samples)
    -1060 AD, German admixed Slavs?, Wüstung, Saxom Anhalt, Germany(2 samples)
    -1158 AD, German, Wüstung, Sax.-Anhalt, Germany
    -1100 AD, Usedom, Mecklenburg-V., Germany
    -1200 AD, Rus Viking, Łuck, Wolhynia, Ukraine
    1400 AD, German-Dutch, Oldenzaal, Overijssel, Netherlands.
    1560 AD, Muskovite, Radonież, Moscow, Russia., Sweden.
    973 AD, Viking, Cedynia, Lebusland, Poland.
    975 AD, Viking, Ciepłe, Pomerania, Poland, twice.
    1060 AD, German? Slavic?, Wüstung, Sax.-Anhalt, Germany, twice.
    1158 AD, German, Wüstung, Sax.-Anhalt, Germany.
    1100 AD, Slavic (postViking?), Usedom, Mecklenburg-V., Germany.
    1200 AD, Norse (sic!), Łuck, Wolhynia, Ukraine.
    1400 AD, German-Dutch, Oldenzaal, Overijssel, Netherlands.
    1560 AD, Muskovite, Radonież, Moscow, Russia
    M458 heatmap(may be out of date but includes all branches):
    Great stuff, thanks

    Looking at these figures it is possible to say that south slavic migrants mainly carried i2a p37 and 20%+ r1a z280 alongside some minor other r1a

    If Bulgarians carry more L1029 than Serbs it is highly unlikely it was brought there by them, viking is more likely and possible through the black sea though as far as I'm aware Bulgaria doesn't have much i1 which should have travelled alongside L1029

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viki..._Expansion.svg

    La tene is another interesting theory but from I have read they were mostly R1b, not sure how strong R1b is in Bulgaria but this is a very very unlikely link, do you have access to a database for Bulgarian dna?

    Bastarnae is more probable but what history did they have in Bulgaria? Dacians were in their way. Also Bastarnae should carry i1 in addition to maybe R1b or i2a m223 due to their disputed german or celtic roots?

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    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    Great stuff, thanks
    Looking at these figures it is possible to say that south slavic migrants mainly carried i2a p37 and 20%+ r1a z280 alongside some minor other r1a
    If Bulgarians carry more L1029 than Serbs it is highly unlikely it was brought there by them, viking is more likely and possible through the black sea though as far as I'm aware Bulgaria doesn't have much i1 which should have travelled alongside L1029
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Viki..._Expansion.svg
    La tene is another interesting theory but from I have read they were mostly R1b, not sure how strong R1b is in Bulgaria but this is a very very unlikely link, do you have access to a database for Bulgarian dna?
    Bastarnae is more probable but what history did they have in Bulgaria? Dacians were in their way. Also Bastarnae should carry i1 in addition to maybe R1b or i2a m223 due to their disputed german or celtic roots?

    Not certain. I mean they definitely carried all 3. However, I-Y3120 dominance in South Slavs is due to founder effects and bottlenecks. There is more diversity within Z280 among all Slavs, despite I-Y3120 dominating. R1a-L1029 is similar to I-Y3120 in that theres not much diversity in South Slavs(and to some extent East Slavs) though its different in the fact that it did not rise to the same prominence as I-Y3120. I-Y3120 may not be high in West/East Slavs, but it is more diverse in them, suggesting a north south migration between late antiquity and early medieval. Viking L1029 seems more concentrated in the North and British Isles even if very low. If Vikings brought some L1029 to Bulgaria/the Balkans, i imagine it would be Varangian Vikings which had mixed origins. They were used as Byzantine guard, and stationed in Macedonia as well. L1029 in Bulgaria is more likely to be linked to Slavs/Proto-Slavs that came in various intervals between late antiquity to early medieval. Be they Antes Foederati, Ostrogoths, or largely the later Slavic, and Bulgar arrivals that probably absorbed these elements around Central-East Europe.

    Bastarnae are mentioned as being very mixed. At the earliest Bastarnae were used by Alexander's father against the Dardanians. They also raided/looted the Thraco-Odrysians. Theres no concensus on whether they were Germanic, or Celtic. They are referred to as being culturally German, sometimes linguistically Celtic by some of the earliest historians. They are also referred to as Scytho-Sarmatians, and other times simply "other peoples between the Celts and the Germans". Suffice to say they weren't certain. That's probably because they really were a mixed tribal confederation with a Celtic elite. Its believed Bastarnae were from the lower Vistula and correspond with the Zarubintsy Culture.

    This culture is also associated with the Proto-Slavs/Pre-Slavs. Its very plausible Bastarnae carried a number of lineages among them. R1b, I2a2, I1, R1a-M458/Z280/Z93, I-Y3120 etc. Their Celtic element was probably dominantly R1b-L51. The Scytho-Sarmatian/Proto-Slavic elements could be correlated with R1a/I-Y3120, who knows. L1029 being in East La Tene and Proto-Slavic from late antiquity onward could reflect a transition phase from East La Tene/Scytho-Sarmatian elements into Zarubintsy and from there moved south with the Proto-Slavs/Slavs into the Balkans. This could be the case for I-Y3120 as well though no ancient DNA with I-Y3120 in La Tene yet.

    Some of these lines subclades participated in different loosely related neighboring cultures as well. So without ancient dna no one can make any concrete statements.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastarnae

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zarubintsy_culture

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dard...3Bastarnic_war

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    It was made by the user ph2ter from Anthrogenica. I can ask him if he can make a map of your clade. It would include only ftdna testers positive YP3994 though. So any from yseq or yfull that didn't test through ftdna won't show on the map.
    Thanks, I found the thread and will ask him myself.
    For yseq and yfull samples, there is another tool online: https://phylogeographer.com/scripts/heatmap.php

    If you look at the heatmaps of R-L1029 and R-Y2902, they are slightly different from the ones you posted. I assume that if someone merged both maps, it would give a more accurate vision of the modern distribution.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Illyri View Post
    Thanks, I found the thread and will ask him myself.
    For yseq and yfull samples, there is another tool online: https://phylogeographer.com/scripts/heatmap.php

    If you look at the heatmaps of R-L1029 and R-Y2902, they are slightly different from the ones you posted. I assume that if someone merged both maps, it would give a more accurate vision of the modern distribution.
    Yes,

    Well, as mentioned his maps are based strictly on ftdna sample data from projects.

    Phylogeographer uses yfull/yseq data only.

    Merging the 2 would be great. However, not sure how it would be done.

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    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    Great stuff, thanks
    Looking at these figures it is possible to say that south slavic migrants mainly carried i2a p37 and 20%+ r1a z280 alongside some minor other r1a
    As usual, Dibran's posts are detailed, well reasonned and documented and I appreciate them for that. But as such, you cannot accurately summarize them in a one sentence statement.

    Whatever R1a lineages, the South Slavs brought in the Balkans, it was not R-M458 and R-Z280 but their various subclades (given the TMRCA of 4500/4800 ybp and the timeframe of their migration). And it is not possible to split their frequencies between R-Z280 and other R1a subclades as you try to do. It is obvious that some ancestors might have been succesful in passing their genes and others not, which can radically change the frequence in more than 1000 years.

    To give you a simple example, Serbians have 38 % of I2a-CTS10228 according to their DNA project. Majority of which is PH908, whose ancestor (of whatever ethnicity he was) lived approximately 1550 ybp. While he certainly did not settle alone in the Balkans, for some reasons, many of his companion's lineages went extinct and his descendants were very succesful. And the descendants of this single man are now millions. This shows, to the extent needed, that you cannot rely on current frequencies to find out those prevailing 15 centuries ago.

    Quote Originally Posted by TaktikatEMalet View Post
    If Bulgarians carry more L1029 than Serbs it is highly unlikely it was brought there by them
    Correct me if I am wrong (since I am not an expert on Slavic history), but Bulgarians and Serbians were different tribes (both their elite and the Slavic population : Antes / Slavs), they do not share exactly the same pre migration homeland and did not necessarily follow the same migration route, which can easily justify certain differencies in haplogroup frequencies.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    Though L260 seems most rare among Balkan M458 branches. I may be wrong but I think it showed up in Shkoder and some in the South. We also Plan/Pult clans who are also R1a-M417. Most likely CTS3402 under Z280. Not yet confirmed. Have a couple in Mat and one in Kercove that is likely basal Y33* under Z280, which is quite interesting given the tmrxa is Iron Age.
    Recently an Albanian from North Dibra was A11460 which is common in Serbs. Though it remains to be seen if hes close to those Serbs or form his own branch.
    To have a complete picture, there are also a R-Y3226* sample (from Tepelena) and a new R-YP515* sample (from Mallakastër), so two additional founder effects.

    Do you know if the Plan/Pult clans intend to test deeper ? It would be very interesting to know their confirmed terminal subclade.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    There is more diversity within Z280 among all Slavs, despite I-Y3120 dominating
    Where could I found more precise information on this?
    I gave a look on poreklo, but in their summary of 2019 (in english) they only mention 4 subclades for R-Z280 and 3 for R-M458.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Illyri View Post
    Where could I found more precise information on this?
    I gave a look on poreklo, but in their summary of 2019 (in english) they only mention 4 subclades for R-Z280 and 3 for R-M458.
    Sorry for my typo. I mean in Slavs in general. Z280 is the dominantly represented R1a in all groups from East to West to South. Diverse in the sense that there are older and more than one clade/branch represented among the population. Compared to M458 which has a West to East cline and has considerable percentages only among West Slavs and some others in Central Europe like East Germans for example. Whereas there's only one major clade in M458(among less common ones) that makes up most of the M458 in East and South Slavs, which is L1029.

    Compared to Z280 which has branches that split from eachother in the Iron Age and Bronze Age, that can be found scattered among all the groups; most branches of M458 beside L1029, old basal ones, can be found in Poles/other West Slavs mostly. No Baltic specific or diverse branches of M458 seem to appear outside of Central/Central-East Europe.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Illyri View Post
    To have a complete picture, there are also a R-Y3226* sample (from Tepelena) and a new R-YP515* sample (from Mallakastër), so two additional founder effects.

    Do you know if the Plan/Pult clans intend to test deeper ? It would be very interesting to know their confirmed terminal subclade.
    Cool. Yea I knew about the YP515* sample. Pretty interesting. Theres also the Southern cluster of L1029 under YP263(R-FT205939), which also has a guy from Kukes who didn't upload.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dibran View Post
    Not certain. I mean they definitely carried all 3. However, I-Y3120 dominance in South Slavs is due to founder effects and bottlenecks. There is more diversity within Z280 among all Slavs, despite I-Y3120 dominating. R1a-L1029 is similar to I-Y3120 in that theres not much diversity in South Slavs(and to some extent East Slavs) though its different in the fact that it did not rise to the same prominence as I-Y3120. I-Y3120 may not be high in West/East Slavs, but it is more diverse in them, suggesting a north south migration between late antiquity and early medieval. Viking L1029 seems more concentrated in the North and British Isles even if very low. If Vikings brought some L1029 to Bulgaria/the Balkans, i imagine it would be Varangian Vikings which had mixed origins. They were used as Byzantine guard, and stationed in Macedonia as well. L1029 in Bulgaria is more likely to be linked to Slavs/Proto-Slavs that came in various intervals between late antiquity to early medieval. Be they Antes Foederati, Ostrogoths, or largely the later Slavic, and Bulgar arrivals that probably absorbed these elements around Central-East Europe.
    Bastarnae are mentioned as being very mixed. At the earliest Bastarnae were used by Alexander's father against the Dardanians. They also raided/looted the Thraco-Odrysians. Theres no concensus on whether they were Germanic, or Celtic. They are referred to as being culturally German, sometimes linguistically Celtic by some of the earliest historians. They are also referred to as Scytho-Sarmatians, and other times simply "other peoples between the Celts and the Germans". Suffice to say they weren't certain. That's probably because they really were a mixed tribal confederation with a Celtic elite. Its believed Bastarnae were from the lower Vistula and correspond with the Zarubintsy Culture.
    This culture is also associated with the Proto-Slavs/Pre-Slavs. Its very plausible Bastarnae carried a number of lineages among them. R1b, I2a2, I1, R1a-M458/Z280/Z93, I-Y3120 etc. Their Celtic element was probably dominantly R1b-L51. The Scytho-Sarmatian/Proto-Slavic elements could be correlated with R1a/I-Y3120, who knows. L1029 being in East La Tene and Proto-Slavic from late antiquity onward could reflect a transition phase from East La Tene/Scytho-Sarmatian elements into Zarubintsy and from there moved south with the Proto-Slavs/Slavs into the Balkans. This could be the case for I-Y3120 as well though no ancient DNA with I-Y3120 in La Tene yet.
    Some of these lines subclades participated in different loosely related neighboring cultures as well. So without ancient dna no one can make any concrete statements.
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bastarnae
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Zarubintsy_culture
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dard...3Bastarnic_war
    Very interesting, Dardanian vs Bastarnae war sounds cool

    Whichever groups lived in the regions where proto South slavs came from, they cannot be strong on r1b - most r1b in south slavs was assimilated. South slavs took their land and slavicized them such as r1b Z2103 and maybe u152 though there was still italian involvement in upper balkans post Slavic migration.

    R1b is quite low in south slavs and some of it would have come from north west from areas like Germany settling into south slavic lands well after the south slavic invasions

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    Quote Originally Posted by Illyri View Post
    As usual, Dibran's posts are detailed, well reasonned and documented and I appreciate them for that. But as such, you cannot accurately summarize them in a one sentence statement.
    Whatever R1a lineages, the South Slavs brought in the Balkans, it was not R-M458 and R-Z280 but their various subclades (given the TMRCA of 4500/4800 ybp and the timeframe of their migration). And it is not possible to split their frequencies between R-Z280 and other R1a subclades as you try to do. It is obvious that some ancestors might have been succesful in passing their genes and others not, which can radically change the frequence in more than 1000 years.
    To give you a simple example, Serbians have 38 % of I2a-CTS10228 according to their DNA project. Majority of which is PH908, whose ancestor (of whatever ethnicity he was) lived approximately 1550 ybp. While he certainly did not settle alone in the Balkans, for some reasons, many of his companion's lineages went extinct and his descendants were very succesful. And the descendants of this single man are now millions. This shows, to the extent needed, that you cannot rely on current frequencies to find out those prevailing 15 centuries ago.
    Correct me if I am wrong (since I am not an expert on Slavic history), but Bulgarians and Serbians were different tribes (both their elite and the Slavic population : Antes / Slavs), they do not share exactly the same pre migration homeland and did not necessarily follow the same migration route, which can easily justify certain differencies in haplogroup frequencies.
    Yes, I don't have enough data (from different regions of balkans) on subclades to make better statements

    Ancestors not being successful in passing their y dna is the natural flow of life, it means they were less important in defending the culture, language and identity of their people long term. This is why for me, frequency is more important than diversity when it comes to identifying a group to a tribe/culture/country especially in the middle ages because general culture was different to what it is now

    If south slavs have majority ph908 then that is the most important reason for them settling the region and holding it down - at least initially before guns became a thing. You say they lost other y dna along the way, that is great but we need proof of that with ancient dna. What we know for sure is ph908 is the major one they passed further down into balkans all the way to Greece. I am here talking about which y dna has been passed onto where and linking it to potential "written" historical events, it is more difficult to do this without ancient dna

    I understand the issue with a minor haplogroup existing let's say in Bulgaria but for whatever reason is extinct in Serbs even though hypothetically they brought it to Bulgaria 1000 years ago etc. However, these cases are quite rare and usually means the extinct y dna wasn't a major carrier of the tribe/group in the first place

    The problem with relying on diversity in haplogroups is many people died, there have been many wars before guns existed - a lot of men that died didn't have the chance to pass on their y dna so them being important for a few years is not enough in providing the tribe/country with a long term identity and culture and continuous man power
    Last edited by TaktikatEMalet; 03-01-21 at 22:25.

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    Yes, I don't have enough data (from different regions of balkans) on subclades to make better statements

    You can look at yfull to have an (uncomplete) idea of the subclades today present in the diferent countrees. If you have an account with FTDNA, you can get there similar information consulting their public haplotree. And you can also look at the various DNA projects there. But I aslo wish we had a more complete and detailed picture regarding haplogroups.

    Ancestors not being successful in passing their y dna is the natural flow of life, it means they were less important in defending the culture, language and identity of their people long term

    I disagree. Today's frequency has not much to do with defending culture, language and identity. In the past, this often meant war in the Balkans and those who fought for culture and identity had more chances to die on the battlefield and leave no/less descendants. To the contrary, one could argue that those who did not fight had more chances to increase the frequency of their haplogroup. Besides, sicknesses and famines - which could bring many lineages to exctinction - have nothing to do with the strive for culture, language and identity.

    This is why for me, frequency is more important than diversity when it comes to identifying a group to a tribe/culture/country especially in the middle ages because general culture was different to what it is now

    I am not convinced. Today's frequences are not those prevailing 10/15 centuries ago. In addition, I think that to try associating haplogroups and ancient tribes/cultures, it is necessary to include in the analysis diversity, distribution, forming age and TMRCA.

    If south slavs have majority ph908 then that is the most important reason for them settling the region and holding it down - at least initially before guns became a thing. You say they lost other y dna along the way, that is great but we need proof of that with ancient dna. What we know for sure is ph908 is the major one they passed further down into balkans all the way to Greece. I am here talking about which y dna has been passed onto where and linking it to potential "written" historical events, it is more difficult to do this without ancient dna

    For this to hold, the TMRCA needs be consistent with the settlement of the South Slavs in the Balkans. I do not think that a few hundreds ore even thousand men are the most important reason for the success of the massive migration of the Slavs to the Balkans, unless you assume - like some do - that the region was totally depopulated at the time of their settlement. I am conviced that they lost lineages along the way. It is not unlikely and it would make sense during a period of 15 centuries. There is no reason why ancient tribes should not have a certain diversity among themselves. I agree with you that ancient DNA would be very helpful four our discussions. Hopefully, we will see soon Bronze age, Iron age and antiquity samples from Albania.

    I understand the issue with a minor haplogroup existing let's say in Bulgaria but for whatever reason is extinct in Serbs even though hypothetically they brought it to Bulgaria 1000 years ago etc. However, these cases are quite rare and usually means the extinct y dna wasn't a major carrier of the tribe/group in the first place

    Do you have knowledge of any migration of the Serbs in Bulgaria ? I do not pretend to be an expert, but there were several tribes among South Slavs migrating to the Balkans (not only Serbs) and they did necessarily have the same composition. After their settlement, they founded distinct kingdoms.

    As for exctinction, it can be due to many factors as I wrote above and the fact that a haplogroup's frequency is now tiny, does not mean that it was not more important 1000 years ago. If you have a doubt, look at the neolithic/early farmers lineages and at their current frequencies in the Balkans.

    The problem with relying on diversity in haplogroups is many people died, there have been many wars before guns existed - a lot of men that died didn't have the chance to pass on their y dna so them being important for a few years is not enough in providing the tribe/country with a long term identity and culture and continuous man power

    Unfortunately, you face the same problem with frequency (which increases after a bottleneck as diversity decreases). I think that frequency is a only reliable indicator of the present situation and says nothing about the situation prior to the bottleneck event. It is speculation to some extent but it still makes sense that a haplogroup has more chances to present higher diversity in the region where its carriers have lived longer and multiplied.

    In short, one needs to look at both diversity and frequency at least in my opinon.
    Last edited by Illyri; 07-01-21 at 07:50.

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