An interesting discussion started in the thread dedicated to Minoan and Mycenean origins, so let's continue in a more focused manner here. What can Y-DNA data tell us about affinities between proto-Albanian and proto-Romanian and the regions where their speakers might have lived? There seems to a consensus that Moldavian paternal lines are sufficiently different from Albanians to exclude a significant Carpi contribution to the Albanian ethnogenesis, so I will talk just about Albanian-Romanian connections.
According to linguists proto-Albanians and proto-Romanians had intense contacts for several centuries in the early Middle Ages, maybe up to the 10th. So to guess where this area of contacts was, we should look at paleo-Balkan Y-DNA lines younger 1200-1800 years old, that both Albanians and Romanians have. We already know the most common and likely paleo-Balkan haplogroups in Albanians are E-V13, J2b-L283 and R1b. Data I gathered from Bosch 2006, Stanciu 2010, Netea 2012 & Varzari 2013 (total n=363) show Romanians have 16.3% E, 12.1% R1b (<1% BY611), 3.6% J2b2.
Regarding E-V13, as I mentioned, it is difficult to classify short haplotypes into early medieval subclades, but, looking at the main Albanian clusters: PH2180, Y93102, BY4461 and 2 clusters under FGC11450, it seems unlikely that Romanians will show significant connections within 1200-1400 years with them. Nonetheless, because Romanians are so poorly tested, I would say that a thorough analysis of E-V13 needs more data.
Why do you think that? And how does that play into the early medieval contacts between proto-Albanians & proto-Romanians? Have you found any E-V13 Albanian-Romanian clades with a mrca of 1200-1800?
When it comes to J2b-L283 and R1b-BY611, even though Romanians are not well-tested, the data is already one-sided. The main J2b-L283 Albanian clusters Z38300>Y20899, Y82533, CTS11100 and even smaller ones, like that J-Z631 haplotype found in some Romanians, all have western distributions. J2b-L283 is even more frequent and diverse in Apulia than in Romania or SE Serbia. Btw some Vlachs from Albania have been found to belong to Y20899, a diverse Albanian cluster also found in Apulia.
J2b-L283 frequency among Tosks is lower than in Ghegs, even though more frequent than elsewhere. However, the main indicator or historical presence is diversity, and in Tosks it is diverse, albeit less than in Ghegs. But this might not even be a Tosk-Gheg, as much as a highland-lowland difference: if you look at the largest highland of the South, Laberia, J2b-L283 is close to 15%. Other paleo-Balkan lines are also more frequent in mountainous areas, which makes perfect sense because we know the Slavic incomers were mainly settling in agricultural, flat lands, and the native element of the Albanian language has a strong pastorial, highland character. So, I don't see how proto-Albanians might not have had a significant % of J2b-L283.
R1b-BY611 it is at minimal frequency in Romanians. More importantly, I can classify the few haplotypes I have seen until today into either R-Z2705>BY105603>BY61976 or R-Z2705>BY38894>Y32147. Vlachs and some areas in Bulgaria have higher frequency than Romanians, but similar diversity, lacking 393=12 & 392=13 haplotypes (no such haplotypes have been found in Bulgarians, SE Serbs or Vlachs either).
Yes, the age of the branch is not high (although it should increase a bit soon), but the likeliest location of tmrca is NW Albania or Montenegro. And the closest relatives whose ancestry we know, at 3300 ybp, are in the W Mediterranean. A few unconfirmed, potential R-BY611 haplotypes, are mostly concentrated in North Italy and NW Balkans (check the thread I linked). Of course, we cannot say with 100% confidence that Moesia can be excluded. But right now, I do not see a single point of evidence suggesting the eastern half of the Balkans.
Yes, there definitely is some, but not too much. Looking at the current data, it seems likely that proto-Romanian developed south of the Danube, as we agreed, and most linguists and historians suggest. I think there the likeliest scenario that can explain why the shared Y-DNA lines of Albanians and Romanians are relatively rare and more diverse in the west, is that the proto-Romanians lived in an area stretching through Moesia and further west, only the western part being in contact with proto-Albanians, and absorbing a limited number of proto-Albanian Y-DNA lines. Of course, if new data is revlead and it contradicts what we have until now, I might change my mind.
According to linguists proto-Albanians and proto-Romanians had intense contacts for several centuries in the early Middle Ages, maybe up to the 10th. So to guess where this area of contacts was, we should look at paleo-Balkan Y-DNA lines younger 1200-1800 years old, that both Albanians and Romanians have. We already know the most common and likely paleo-Balkan haplogroups in Albanians are E-V13, J2b-L283 and R1b. Data I gathered from Bosch 2006, Stanciu 2010, Netea 2012 & Varzari 2013 (total n=363) show Romanians have 16.3% E, 12.1% R1b (<1% BY611), 3.6% J2b2.
Regarding E-V13, as I mentioned, it is difficult to classify short haplotypes into early medieval subclades, but, looking at the main Albanian clusters: PH2180, Y93102, BY4461 and 2 clusters under FGC11450, it seems unlikely that Romanians will show significant connections within 1200-1400 years with them. Nonetheless, because Romanians are so poorly tested, I would say that a thorough analysis of E-V13 needs more data.
Even if we consider the common J2b-L283 lines of Romanians and Albanians as western rather than generally Balkanic lines, this doesn't erase the fact that E-V13 looks more central, southern and eastern, in a Balkanic context
Why do you think that? And how does that play into the early medieval contacts between proto-Albanians & proto-Romanians? Have you found any E-V13 Albanian-Romanian clades with a mrca of 1200-1800?
When it comes to J2b-L283 and R1b-BY611, even though Romanians are not well-tested, the data is already one-sided. The main J2b-L283 Albanian clusters Z38300>Y20899, Y82533, CTS11100 and even smaller ones, like that J-Z631 haplotype found in some Romanians, all have western distributions. J2b-L283 is even more frequent and diverse in Apulia than in Romania or SE Serbia. Btw some Vlachs from Albania have been found to belong to Y20899, a diverse Albanian cluster also found in Apulia.
You write, "There is no reason at all to exclude J2b-L283. J2b-L283 in Tosks actually has some good diversity, and it is still more frequent than in neighboring countries.". Maybe there is not a reason to exclude it, bearing in mind that it is the second most prevalent haplogroup among Ghegs (which are also the ones living the closest to the proto-Albanian homeland), but we also have to consider the frequency among Tosks.
J2b-L283 frequency among Tosks is lower than in Ghegs, even though more frequent than elsewhere. However, the main indicator or historical presence is diversity, and in Tosks it is diverse, albeit less than in Ghegs. But this might not even be a Tosk-Gheg, as much as a highland-lowland difference: if you look at the largest highland of the South, Laberia, J2b-L283 is close to 15%. Other paleo-Balkan lines are also more frequent in mountainous areas, which makes perfect sense because we know the Slavic incomers were mainly settling in agricultural, flat lands, and the native element of the Albanian language has a strong pastorial, highland character. So, I don't see how proto-Albanians might not have had a significant % of J2b-L283.
R1b-BY611 it is at minimal frequency in Romanians. More importantly, I can classify the few haplotypes I have seen until today into either R-Z2705>BY105603>BY61976 or R-Z2705>BY38894>Y32147. Vlachs and some areas in Bulgaria have higher frequency than Romanians, but similar diversity, lacking 393=12 & 392=13 haplotypes (no such haplotypes have been found in Bulgarians, SE Serbs or Vlachs either).
Indeed, most Albanian R1b-Z2103 is R1b-Z2705, and i see that its earliest lines seem to be concentrated in the Dinaric Alps. In any case, the group's predecessor lived approximately 1450 years ago, which was a period of great upheaval and subsequent migrations in the Balkans. Is there any possibility he could have come from the eastern and central Balkans, subsequently pushed to the west by the newcomers? Do we have any significant information on R1b-Y10789 and R1b-Y23373?
Yes, the age of the branch is not high (although it should increase a bit soon), but the likeliest location of tmrca is NW Albania or Montenegro. And the closest relatives whose ancestry we know, at 3300 ybp, are in the W Mediterranean. A few unconfirmed, potential R-BY611 haplotypes, are mostly concentrated in North Italy and NW Balkans (check the thread I linked). Of course, we cannot say with 100% confidence that Moesia can be excluded. But right now, I do not see a single point of evidence suggesting the eastern half of the Balkans.
You write, "So, as I said, there is little shared paleo-Balkan paternal ancestry in the best researched branches, and current data suggests that this small amount spread from the western half of the Balkans.". But shouldn't there have been some, bearing in mind that you are also a proponent of the "Immigrationist theory" and Schramm? As for the current genetic data suggesting that it spread from the west, allow me to view it as more obscure. In any case it is very probable, not just because of genetics, but folklore does give some hints likewise.
Yes, there definitely is some, but not too much. Looking at the current data, it seems likely that proto-Romanian developed south of the Danube, as we agreed, and most linguists and historians suggest. I think there the likeliest scenario that can explain why the shared Y-DNA lines of Albanians and Romanians are relatively rare and more diverse in the west, is that the proto-Romanians lived in an area stretching through Moesia and further west, only the western part being in contact with proto-Albanians, and absorbing a limited number of proto-Albanian Y-DNA lines. Of course, if new data is revlead and it contradicts what we have until now, I might change my mind.
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