Regio X
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Thanks, Pax! I agree that the individual must be "contextualized", and also that other variables may possibly help to "refine" the chances we're talking about, since there is a window of time. I focused on the "crude" data, and started the analysis from informations shared in this thread. If I had the time, I'd check details on the "proto-Illyrian" Y-DNA.The categorization of the Etruscan was confirmed by Ted Kandell. These papers usually don't provide the most deep assignments possible. Even errors may occur. For example, Ted assures that R55 guy was G-S2808, whereas the paper suggests G-Z30771. At least they agree he was G-CTS4803.Very interesting, thank you very much Regio X. If we really want to face this discussion, however, we must place archaeologically the individual found in Croatia who was J2b2a-L283. It is not enough to say that he was proto-Illyrian. What was the bronze culture to which he belonged? In the autosomal DNA he had a significant amount of steppe-related ancestry.
Let's remember, this individual was a 5-7 year old boy, found near the town of Vrgorac in Split-Dalmatia County, in southern Croatia.
Individual I4331, dated 1631-1521 calBCE (~3591 ybp), Y-DNA haplogroup J2b2a-L283 mtDNA: I1a1
@Mals
SNP and STR diversities are important references, but so is ancient DNA. Natufians should supposedly be mainly G2a, yet E1b was likely the "protagonist" among them. So, what if there wasn't such old sample in Croatia? Who would tell based only on SNP diversity* and hg distribution? Which doesn't mean what you talked isn't interesting, neither that we should despise all "ifs" and third clues, jumping to simple conclusions from isolated data or monodisciplinary approaches.
Your info on more than 99% of Albanians belonging to the same J-Z638, if accurate, seems also interesting. Is that so? Literally more than 99%? Wow!
*Generally speaking, wider areas may also be used as reference when it comes to estimate SNP diversity, not only specific countries, so ok. It depends. Still...
But I'd be careful especially with those Sardinians below J-Z2507. It seems possible they belong to a different context compared to those under J-YP29, J-YP157 and J-YP113. Apparently Cagliari is "overrepresented" in YFull, that's why you may find there Sardinians in "improbable" branches, and it's possible J-Z2507 is one of them. This overrepresentation doesn't seem to explain per se the several Sardinians under those three though.
Briefly looking YFull results only (no time for FTDNA's, where I'd consider mainly confirmed results rather than predictions), particularly I wouldn't rule out the possibility of J-L283 MRCA originating in Sardinia. If so, they would have left the island very early, possibly before 4200 ybp. In this case, that basal G-Y15058 Sardinian in YFull could result from a "back migration" (indeed, notice that IT-CA doesn't develop that much downstream G-Z2507, despite the mentioned "overrepredentation"), but it's also possible, "in theory", G-Y15058 originated in Sardinia, and, if so, the "out of Sardinia" would have possibly happened after 4400 ybp.
But... It also seems possible a flow of J-L283 from Balkans to Sardinia beginning very early. Here, sampling bias could perhaps explain the apparent abscence of basal J-L283 in Balkans, after all, they're almost completely G-Z638, at the same time there are tons of Sardinians in YFull.
Both are however speculative.
As a side note: low frequency and high SNP diversity may coexist. There are many examples, and G-M201 in Armenia, according to Rootsi et al. 2012, is one of them.
That's also a crude lecture of mine which involves too many assumptions. It still seems an open question. At least for me.
Feel free to elaborate, but this is my last post about it, 'cause the thread is not on J-L283. If the point is showing that this movement from Balkans to Italy could have happened, then I agree. It seems very possible, as far as I can see. And it's also possible the clade is "Italian" in origin, ending up in Balkan soon enough, also as far as I can see. Who knows!
Further ancient DNAs may help to solve the "J-L283 mistery".