Those are all very helpful insights.
A silly example, I know, but your post prompted me to look back on my recent viewing of the latest Martin Scorsese film, "The Irishman". The "mob" culture is built on violence and intimidation as well as manipulation of man's baser instincts and desires no matter the ethnic group involved. Yet even in that culture the overly aggressive and reckless are ostracized and even killed eventually. That's why "Crazy Joe" Gallo was gunned down in a restaurant in downtown New York. It happened to many others. They endanger the group. The characters even used your word to describe him: hothead.
The ones who survived into old age were the calm, controlled, even icy ones.
I agree.
I've had this long running assumption that most people in a "mafia" would have ASPD. Granted, they are portrayed as being jovial socialites but only amongst others of the same predilections ie. they sit in the back of the restaurant with their other mafia buddies but could never relate to the yoga instructor, male kindergarten teacher, astrophysicists etc. They operate in "base logic terms" which you describe as manipulation of man's baser instincts while ignoring the emotional impact this might have.
So in the movies, they have some friends, their friends are violent hotheads like them and amongst their peers, there is some sort of peace predicated upon the silver back gorilla style warband model. In reality, they will have even fewer near peers than in the movies and, yes, they eventually become dangerous even to their own and are eventually ostracized.
Certain developmental things can exacerbate these ASPD traits such as poor parenting, poverty, harsh natural environment etc. Dumezil's Trifunctional Hypothesis seems to nail what this would have looked like in more primitive societies before the advent of a state system that can keep these types in check. These men would represent the warrior caste of the day. Take for instance Viking berserkers. We only know about them because they survived into the time of Christian writing but they were not unique to the Nordic Indo-European cultures. They were set apart from the rest either by choice or by force and called upon in times of war or to restore order. I believe these people to have ASPD in a time long before we had anyway of controlling it. I would relate this much to "mafioso" types today who are likely beset by the same mental issue but have the IQ to (normally) stay out of prison. The combination is frightening. Most with ASPD are of lower IQ's and are heavily representative of the violent prison population.
By the time of organized state systems, especially in the Indo-European world, take Roman Legions for instance, the role of the berserker is minimized or not needed at all. These men eventually are kept in check by the state which is far more powerful than them for the first time. This was not the case, say on the Steppes of Russia 6000 years ago where nothing could keep them in check.
Fast forward to the 20th and 21st centuries, where society has reached peak comfort levels, with nowhere else to go and being too impetuous for the military, which now values required, cool, calm, and collected aggressive types over berserkers, they fall into criminality with criminality being defined by me here as: manipulating the basic logic of human nature in violation of the state for the benefit of the individual criminal.
Most people with this issue would have been valued at one point in history but find themselves disregarded now. Perhaps they were even seen as dangerous and disregarded on the Steppes 6000 years ago but the difference being that back then, nothing could contain the smart ones and I would suspect in many cases, it was they who punched forward in the "successive waves of Indo-European language speaking invaders" seen from Ireland to India.
Key emphasis being on the fact that the smart ones kept things in check and that would separate the warlord from the berserkers that flock to his banner.
I would equate this to real 1%er motorcycle gangs like the Hell's Angels where an elite cadre of 1200-1500 hyper-violent but intelligent males control thousands of other hyper-violent and less intelligent males. There are between 1200-1500 "full-patch" members with several thousand "hangarounds" or "aspirants". Then, there are several hundred smaller motorcycle gangs that are neither Hell's Angels or trying to getting into the elite Hell's Angels themselves but answer to the Hell's Angels out of fear of retribution and often pay tribute. When called upon, they will answer the call of the Hell's Angels. In exchange, their mere association with the Hell's Angels in any capacity propels them above other similar motorcycle gangs that have no affiliation to the Hell's Angels. There is even a hierarchy to that model with non-motorcycle based gangs answering to these lesser motorcycle gangs who in turn answer to the Hell's Angels. If there were no state system, these 1% motorcycle gangs would be the literal reincarnation of the Proto-Indo-European horse warrior elite, Huns, or Mongols. The DOJ being as powerful as it is prevents these types from taking over the country. Their wealth and influence is on par with the Italian mob prior to the 1970's. I would be willing to bet my left hand that most of the 1200-1500 "full-patch" Hell's Angels have ASPD and would factually control the country (or groups similar) if not kept in check by the state.
If you ask me, the "State" grew into existence to "domesticate" intelligent ASPD males. In pure nature, they would likely endlessly fight each other in small war bands and fight amongst each other within the same war band. Sedentary state based societies very well could have grown in response to this natural phenomenon in primates. Without it, psychopathic, violent, but intelligent males who were purely self serving would dominate. At some point, we developed intelligence vastly in excess of other primates without losing this base tendency (primates are extremely violent by mammal standards) and needed a Leviathan to allow other aspects of life to flourish. I believe this was integral in the development of civilizations ie. that civilizations like perhaps Catalhoyuk in Turkey were citadels primarily protecting them from marauding bands of ASPD males in a time where no amount of rage could supplant the earliest of state systems. That waxed and waned as technologies like horse domestication or metallurgy start to come into play again giving an advantage to the ASPD males and thus the state system continues to evolve. This doesn't mean societies developed in a constant state of total war as technological development will spurn more technological development often on the grounds of improved survival, convenience, or religiosity.
So I'm not sure we "domesticated" ourselves as we see these very counter-cultural and violent tendencies even today, I just think the humans who once represented the violent "feral" counter culture are kept in check by civilization and we may not realize the degree to which civilization itself evolved as a counter to these threats.
Edit for spelling error and addition of 1% comparison.