Health New Coronavirus in China

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I understand the why, it’s just that I’ve never been comfortable with State of Emergency declarations,
I don’t care who’s in charge,
Absolute Power, even temporarily, is a step away,
things can get out of hand...
 
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On the first business day after the authorities' recommendation regarding the new coronavirus, bathers in Rio were again in great number on the beaches this Monday (16).

In the South Zone, Arpoador, Ipanema the beaches had non standard concentrations of bathers for a Monday.

On Sunday, many Cariocas and tourists ignored the government's warning and made their mark on the city's beaches on the last weekend of the summer.

Faced with the coronavirus pandemic, the orientation is for the population to avoid agglomerations.

On Friday, Governor Wilson Witzel had said that the military police could block the beaches to prevent crowds. The Fire Department of Rio de Janeiro started at this Monday (16) a car tour with alerts to avoid agglomerations. On a loudspeaker installed in a car, a fireman repeated the following message:

"The State Civil Defense asks the population to avoid crowds on the beaches. Please, for the safety of your neighbors, friends and family, come home," said the message.

"The moment is for awareness. Do your part to help prevent and control the coronavirus. You always count on the firefighters. Can we count on you?", He amended.

The car stopped at beaches like Recreio, in the West Zone, and Vermelha, in the South Zone. Praça Cardeal Arcoverde, one of the subway accesses to Copacabana Beach, was also a place to stop and do alerts to the population.

Pics of bathers in the beaches of the City of Rio de Janeiro this Monday, 16.

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I think that in most places where a strict discipline and obedience to authority, as well as some sort of collectivism are deeply rooted in the culture of the populace most individuals will only take the pandemics seriously when it's starting to get out of control. People have generally a real problem to understand what exponential growth is, and they also don't understand that you don't need millions of Covid-19 cases to cause a nearly total collapse of the already overtaxed healthcare system of the country (and remember people are also still getting sick from all other diseases and medical conditions too, it's just an extra burden). At first they think "hey, just 20 more cases since yesterday, no big deal". Later they will think "okay, 100 new cases today, but see, it's still a tiny bit compared to a population of hundreds of millions".

I have been closely watching the numbers, and they are extremely worrisome in Brazil during these last days of summer (so much for the comments that "hey, summer is coming in the next months [in the Northern Hemisphere], so everything will be solved naturally until then, it's just a matter of time and waiting" - uh-huh, keep hoping for that). See:

March 13th - 98
March 14th - 121 (+24%)
March 15th - 200 (+65%)
March 16th - 234 (+17%)
March 17th - 314 (+34%)
March 18th - 529 (+65%)

At the current rate, there will be more than 10,000 Covid-19 cases in less than 2 weeks. People will maybe take the orders of authorities more seriously when they start to see the numbers skyrocketing by hundreds per day.

(And of course we all know there is severe under-reporting all over the country, just like elsewhere. The real numbers must be 3x or 4x worse, given that so many people are asymptomatic, have only mild symptoms or are just not tested and notified yet to the authorities even if they have more serious syptoms. Brazil's government already announced they won't be testing anyone who is not feeling seriously ill because they want to save the tests for potentially larger serious cases of Covid-19 in the future... so the real scenario is much worse than the official data indicate)
 
That is because we do not a vaccin against Coronas yet,
neither a helping treaty medicine
something is said about chloraquine, but nothing official.

Yet considering that even 27 out of 77 deaths had made the annual vaccin
I think the numbers give odd vision
same as in 2009, only this time towards Corona

At 27FEB20 I wrote about chloraquine,
It was a big rumor and discuss here in N Greece for days, from conspiraciologists, to doctors to pharmacists,

Today here in Greece started the 'attack' on pharmacies,(apotheke pharmakeion)
people just wait outside to buy Plaquenil with aggresive stance sometimes,
The state councils of Doctors and Pharmacists from the morning make announce
'STOP CHLORAQUINE, IT IS TOXIC AND DANGEROUS IF NOT USE CORRECT, AND UNDER SUPERVISION'

By Greek state law chloraquine is forbiden to be sold by a pharmasist with out an electronical certified doctor's recipe, online connected with National health system,
but in black market has a little bit high price sometimes.
 
Guns and ammo sales spike in U.S. on coronavirus worries

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/guns-ammunition-sales-coronavirus-concerns/

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LOL

Amid the coronavirus pandemic, US citizens stock up on weapons and ammunition.

Larry Hyatt runs nearly 47 employees at the store his father founded six decades ago in Charlotte, North Carolina.


At the age of 72, he says he never saw how sales of his establishment quadrupled in a short time, as it happened in the midst of a coronavirus pandemic.


Since 1959, the Hyatt family has been selling weapons and ammunition. In addition to non-perishable food, water and toilet paper, US citizens begin to stock semi-automatic rifles and bulletproof vestson the grounds that they are preparing to live in an end of the world scenario. "We have had many reports from people concerned about the country in total quarantine. If that happens, they fear they will come and steal their homes," says Nick Groat, president of Safe Life Defense, one of the Hyatt officials.


"Stocking up on bulletproof vests, weapons, ammunition and tactical equipment helps to defend their families, supplies and properties."


With headquarters in Las Vegas and branches in 12 other American states, Safe Life Defense has seen a 44% increase in sales since March 11, when President Donald Trump enacted the national emergency. Groat explains that the demand has grown as a whole, but he highlights the the growths of demand for tactical belts and bulletproof vests, which are sold on the store's website in models from US$ 130 to US$ 1,700.


The owner of the Hyatt Guns, in turn, declares that the products that the products that leader sales are automatic and semi-automatic weapons, such as the AR-15 rifle, often used by a first-time buyer.


"I don't see any demand for a hunting weapon, it's self-defense. People who have a gun, but didn't have ammunition, come to buy ammunition. Those who don't have a gun come to buy one."

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People line up to buy weapons at the store in Culver, Calif., Amid the coronavirus pandemic - Mario Tama / Getty Images / AFP
 
Amid the coronavirus pandemic, US citizens stock up on weapons and ammunition.

Larry Hyatt runs nearly 47 employees at the store his father founded six decades ago in Charlotte, North Carolina.


At the age of 72, he says he never saw how sales of his establishment quadrupled in a short time, as it happened in the midst of a coronavirus pandemic.


Since 1959, the Hyatt family has been selling weapons and ammunition. In addition to non-perishable food, water and toilet paper, US citizens begin to stock semi-automatic rifles and bulletproof vestson the grounds that they are preparing to live in an end of the world scenario. "We have had many reports from people concerned about the country in total quarantine. If that happens, they fear they will come and steal their homes," says Nick Groat, president of Safe Life Defense, one of the Hyatt officials.


"Stocking up on bulletproof vests, weapons, ammunition and tactical equipment helps to defend their families, supplies and properties."


With headquarters in Las Vegas and branches in 12 other American states, Safe Life Defense has seen a 44% increase in sales since March 11, when President Donald Trump enacted the national emergency. Groat explains that the demand has grown as a whole, but he highlights the the growths of demand for tactical belts and bulletproof vests, which are sold on the store's website in models from US$ 130 to US$ 1,700.


The owner of the Hyatt Guns, in turn, declares that the products that the products that leader sales are automatic and semi-automatic weapons, such as the AR-15 rifle, often used by a first-time buyer.


"I don't see any demand for a hunting weapon, it's self-defense. People who have a gun, but didn't have ammunition, come to buy ammunition. Those who don't have a gun come to buy one."

Oq8eMie.jpg


People line up to buy weapons at the store in Culver, Calif., Amid the coronavirus pandemic - Mario Tama / Getty Images / AFP

Anyone who has been trained in using one has a healthy respect for them; they're dangerous in the wrong hands.

This is a very serious situation given that a lot of these people will be new to firearms and have no training. My father bought quite a bit of open land in his later years. He had to close it to hunting because all these "hunters" from New York City couldn't tell the difference between a dog and a deer. At least a couple a season would also wind up shooting themselves or their buddies.

On the other hand, when you have asinine mayors of cities and other moronic state officials calling for prisoners to be released for "humanitarian" reasons, people get anxious. With the recent change in bail bond rules the only people left in our Rikers Island facility are murderers, rapists, burglars etc.

Who in his right mind would want them released? Just imagine them running around if there are food shortages.
 
I checked how quickly the virus spread in each country (all the cases are neatly reported with timelines for each country on Wikipedia). It takes between 6 and 11 days for the number of cases to be multiplied by 10. A few examples:

Iran : 6 days to pass from 90 to 900 cases, then 11 days to pass from 900 to 9000 cases
Italy : 8 days to pass from 150 to 1500, and 11 days to pass from 1000 to 10000 cases.
France : 8.5 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases
Spain : 8 days to pass from 120 to 1200 cases
Germany : 9 days to pass from 110 to 1100 cases
Switzerland : 7.5 days to pass from 40 to 400 cases
Belgium : 6 days to pass from 23 to 230 cases
Netherlands : 7.5 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
Sweden : 7 days to pass from 50 to 500 cases
UK : 8.5 days to pass from 45 to 450 cases
USA : 7 days to pass from 100 to 1000 cases

As of today, there about 22,500 reported cases in Europe and 1000 in the USA. If the diffusion speed is sustained, there should be over 200,000 cases in Europe by 19 March, 2 million cases by 27 March and 20 million by 4 April. If we consider that only a fraction of cases get reported (only the minority with moderate to severe symptoms), it is reasonable to assume that most of the European population will have been infected by the end of April, although most people won't even notice it.

The pandemic started later in the USA, so by the same calculation we would have 10,000 officially reported cases by 19 March, 100,000 by 27 March, 1 million by 4 April, 10 million by 11 April and 100 million by 19 April (although I very much doubt that the authorities are going to test millions of people considering the costs and how 90% of people only get mild symptoms). In any case, by the end of April I suspect that the virus will have spread around most of the population in Europe and North America.

I was writing 8 days ago that by 19 March there should be 200,000 cases worldwide. We are now at 225,000 cases, so it is just as expected by my calculations (in fact it's exactly 10x the 22,500 cases 8 days ago).
 
Around here the court system has pretty much shut down except for first appearances, bail hearings and pleas. Even those will be conducted via video link.
 
Is there anything to a melatonin connection?
https://www.evolutamente.it/covid-19-pneumonia-inflammasomes-the-melatonin-connection/

The following might be mucking up all the data in places where they've done a lot of testing. They may have far fewer actual cases than they have posted. Doesn't that also mean the "sick" rate if infected is higher, and their CFR rates are too low?

Please tell me I'm wrong because I'm not awake yet.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/321...D3jt_Hjf2ZKysmDcXMU5LgVgNPcqNAtb9EzcQBKMtCIoI

[h=2]Abstract in English , Chinese
[/h]Objective: As the prevention and control of COVID-19continues to advance, the active nucleic acid test screening in the close contacts of the patients has been carrying out in many parts of China. However, the false-positive rate of positive results in the screening has not been reported up to now. But to clearify the false-positive rate during screening is important in COVID-19 control and prevention. Methods: Point values and reasonable ranges of the indicators which impact the false-positive rate of positive results were estimated based on the information available to us at present. The false-positive rate of positive results in the active screening was deduced, and univariate and multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed to understand the robustness of the findings. Results: When the infection rate of the close contacts and the sensitivity and specificity of reported results were taken as the point estimates, the positive predictive value of the active screening was only 19.67%, in contrast, the false-positive rate of positive results was 80.33%. The multivariate-probabilistic sensitivity analysis results supported the base-case findings, with a 75% probability for the false-positive rate of positive results over 47%. Conclusions: In the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives."
 
So since China has no new cases can they bail us out with respect to masks, gloves, test kits and ventilators? We can't seem to get out of our own way to produce them. Musk has offered to produce them, if it is needed, in Tesla's highly automated factory.
 
I was writing 8 days ago that by 19 March there should be 200,000 cases worldwide. We are now at 225,000 cases, so it is just as expected by my calculations (in fact it's exactly 10x the 22,500 cases 8 days ago).
the numbers of confirmed cases also depend on the number of tests done
therefore I think the number of deaths is a better indication

I check this site regularly

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

it also has info per country :

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/
 
Thanks Angela, I'm stocking up on melatonin and vitamin C.
 

Wonderful!
When all this is over, some plan will have to be drawn up so that tourism is not a main industry in the countries of southern Europe, perhaps very minority and in a controlled way or perhaps eradicate it completely since these exaggerated population movements can end the native populations in the future with any other pandemic.
 
Thanks Angela, I'm stocking up on melatonin and vitamin C.

I don't know if the author of the article is correct, but neither can hurt.

I was just told by my doctor last week to try melatonin, so...

Also in the category of fwiw...
She told me until they can separate the wheat from the chaff in all these reports about ibuprofen to switch from it to paracetamol/acetaminophen/tylenol. Unfortunately it's never worked very well for me, but whatever...
 
Thanks Angela, I'm stocking up on melatonin and vitamin C.
 
Wonderful!
When all this is over, some plan will have to be drawn up so that tourism is not a main industry in the countries of southern Europe, perhaps very minority and in a controlled way or perhaps eradicate it completely since these exaggerated population movements can end the native populations in the future with any other pandemic.

And how are you going to replace the money they bring in?

Don't get me wrong; with a place as fragile as Venice I've been advocating ticket only controlled (and expensive) access for years.
 
So since China has no new cases can they bail us out with respect to masks, gloves, test kits and ventilators? We can't seem to get out of our own way to produce them. Musk has offered to produce them, if it is needed, in Tesla's highly automated factory.

Yes they do indeed, we can have thoughts about it (goodwill?), but the hospitals here are desperate in need....

Prisoners are set to make the masks too....but that not will be mass production I'm afraid.
 

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