New Coronavirus in China

[Carlos]

Coronavirus, last minute: Health confirms the first case in Spain: a German in La Gomera



The first confirmed case in Spain is that of one of the five Germans who were under observation in La Gomera, and who had had contact with an infected person in their country

The National Center for Microbiology confirms the first case of coronavirus in Spain: a German in La Gomera. According to the statement, the patient is under observation.


https://www.elmundo.es/salud/2020/01...a7a8b45ac.html

[Dagne]

There is a very good explanation from MedCram how this novel coronavirus can spread https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nW3xqcGidpQ
There is specifically about this event (at 5:47) how Germans and now how it turns out Spanish people contracted the virus.

What is interesting is that people can be shedding the virus not only before they develop symptoms, but also after they recover from illness. Perhaps it is only those who undergo mild symptoms, however, in such case there are lots of possibilities for the virus to spread.
I wonder if current testing can detect the virus in those who don't have symptoms but have the virus and are contagious. It seems that it is not possible now, otherwise why would all those evacuated people would be held quarantined if they could just be tested for safety purposes.

[bicicleur]

controll Chinese style :
a voice-activated drone urges these pedestrians and old ladies to wear masks outside, go home and wash their hands
they probably also lost a few points for bad behaviour and their mobility and freedom will be further restricted

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland...DLd-458qqUStEo

after a while the video starts

[Ailchu]

controll Chinese style :
a voice-activated drone urges these pedestrians and old ladies to wear masks outside, go home and wash their hands
they probably also lost a few points for bad behaviour and their mobility and freedom will be further restricted

https://www.hln.be/nieuws/buitenland...DLd-458qqUStEo

after a while the video starts

according to other comments, the drone was steered by an influencer who probably thought it's funny, not by chinese authorities.

[Angela]

"“It’s very, very transmissible, and it almost certainly is going to be a pandemic,” said Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease.
“But will it be catastrophic? I don’t know.”
In the last three weeks, the number of lab-confirmed cases has soared from about 50 in China to more than 17,000 in at least 23 countries; there have been more than 360 deaths."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/02/h...mic-china.html

The actual number is probably over 100,000 people.
Right now, the death rate is about 2%, but hopefully it will drop if
they can get a handle on how many people have had a mild version.

At slightly over a 2% death rate, the "Spanish" flu of the early 20th century killed millions around the globe.

What the paper doesn't mention, but which I hope they're investigating is that immunity to it, or at least better immunity to it may differ among ethnic groups.

China's handling of a series of viruses arising in their country.
https://www.statnews.com/2020/01/27/...witter_organic

The following report by a news agency from within China was censored. I sure hope they're wrong.
https://translate.google.com/transla...ive.is%2FObawP

It's also not reassuring that Chinese authorities are enforcing quick cremation for all remains. Isn't that a bit much if it's just like a new strain of influenza?

[Dagne]

Unbelievable, Spanish flu indeed was of a similar mortality rate to this novel coronavirus about 2%, though it varied (depending on a region and if people were exposed to the first, less deadly wave).


from https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/12/1/05-0979-f1

Before I googled about the figures, I was sure that Spanish flu must have been more mortal, as it is indicated in a recent NY time article about various infectious deceases...
Attachment 11788
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...s-contain.html

[Dagne]

"

It's also not reassuring that Chinese authorities are enforcing quick cremation for all remains. Isn't that a bit much if it's just like a new strain of influenza?

In case of Ebola, dead bodies were very much contagious. I am not sure how it is in case of this novel coronavirus. It is heart breaking for the families of the deceased, but, I guess it is done as a measure of precaution.

Besides, the novel coronavirus may be spreading a lot through surfaces, it was attested that this coronavirus stayed on doorknob, for instance

According to a study of 2010, some coronaviruses may stay infectious in cold weather (4C) up to 28 days, which is much different compared to human flu or cold viruses https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/

Another way of getting the infection in case of SARS was through fecal - oral way, where one infected person spread the virus to around 200 people because he had a diarrhoea and it somehow infected the air ventilation system of the house.

[Angela]

A scientific paper just released emphasizes that mutation changes could significantly increase the transmissibility of the disease and must be carefully monitored.

"“Alarmingly, our data predict that a single mutation [at a specific spot in the genome] could significantly enhance [the Wuhan coronavirus’s] ability to bind with human ACE2,” the investigators write. For this reason, Wuhan coronavirus evolution in patients should be closely monitored for the emergence of novel mutations at the 501 position in its genome, and to a lesser extent, the 494 position, in order to predict the possibility of a more serious outbreak than has been seen so far."

Figures for today show the fatality rate to be holding at 2%, but hopefully it's less because some people didn't know they had it and so aren't included in the reported cases.

As well as age (the average age of the people who have died is 55), smoking or having smoked for a considerable amount of time seems to be the biggest factor.

[Dagne]

According to one news coverage, this coronavirus may be some 200 times more dangerous than common flu, because fatality of common flue is often only about .01% (compared to the current rate of 2% in coronavirus).

Even if actual fatality rate of coronavirus is about 0.5%, it is much more dangerous than flue because it is more contagious, people don't have immunity, and 25%-20% will develop serious complications like pneumonia where supporting lung ventilation is needed. If this novel coronavirus spreads like seasonal flue, health care systems will be fully overburdened to deal with it in any, even the most developed country.

Usually the viruses tend to mutate so that they can spread more easy, but at the same time they are usually less deadly. For instance, Ebola had somewhere like 90% fatality, but more recent versions it were already 25%- 50%. On the other hand, Spanish flue mutated from a less sever version to a more sever pandemic, therefore it is difficult to be sure.
So it is better to avoid it, like it was dealt with with SARS. Overall, I really feel sorry about Chinese people who are likely to suffer from it for some time until it is somehow will be harnessed.

[Angela]

I have no idea what to think anymore about the fatality rate, Dagne, because I don't think we have accurate numbers. The Chinese government had reprimanded a doctor in December for "rumor" mongering when he expressed concern to other doctors about a strange new "pneumonia" showing up. (He has since died of it.) So, are we really likely to get good numbers? Plus, the number of body bags being ordered is worrying.

On the other hand, how many people got sick and thought it was flu, or were pretty ill but afraid to report it?

I also completely agree with you that the overburdening of the health care system will up the fatality rate. The grandmother of a famous Chinese musician died at home after being repeatedly turned away from the hospital. Containment in hospitals is just not feasible any longer, so sick people are being sent home to infect their families.

They just can't cope. I don't know if any country could...

In another bizarre twist the government announced that house to house temperature checks will be conducted. Honestly, that's also completely infeasible. Plus, given there's no room in the hospitals, are they going to seal up the house and let everyone inside get sick or not, and then either get better or die on their own?

Leaked documentation from Britain shows they're taking it very seriously indeed.

"All UK hospitals have been told to prepare secure coronavirus zones to “avoid a surge” in emergency departments, a leaked NHS letter has shown.The letter, dated 31 January, tells hospitals to set up “coronavirus priority assessment pods”, which can be decontaminated after each use.
All chief executives and medical directors are instructed to have the pods up and running by Friday 7 February.
Prof Keith Willett, who is leading the NHS’s response to coronavirus, told NHS bosses in the letter: “Plans have been developed to avoid a surge in emergency departments due to coronavirus."

[Yetos]

results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence

[Angela]

results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence

And that's assuming they're publishing the true figures, which I doubt. What about all the people who are afraid to go to the hospital, or the ones they are sending back home without actually checking to see if they have the virus or it's a regular flu?

Btw, the doctor I mentioned above who had expressed his concern way back in Nov/Dec about a new virus, and who has since died of it, was in his mid-thirties and healthy, and he was actually arrested and forced to sign a "confession" that he had lied. The same thing happened to a bunch of other doctors. Pictures of them had been run on state tv to shame them for "rumor mongering". It's the same pattern that played out in Stalinist Russia.

The most ghastly reports for me about all of this are the ones saying that since they don't have enough hospital beds for people they're sending them back home. In effect, they're being abandoned, and they will also infect their families.

Videos leaked out of China also show that these new "hospitals", and the converted convention halls etc. don't have enough wash rooms and there's barely any staff.

This is a complete horror. These poor people.

Ed. Very interesting research published based on 138 cases in a Wuhan hospital:-26% required ICU-41% were believed to be human to human hospital related transmissions-29% of patients were medical workersSource:https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2761044

[Dagne]

I am sure there are more deaths than officially accounted. At the same time, there must be more infected people, too. It is all happening beyond statistics. So those official numbers that we see now may reflect only what happens with registered patients in hospitals who underwent testing for coronavirus infection. Testing kits and capacities are too few and too little, so the statistics are underestimating the scope of the outbreak.

However, if we start counting deaths among those hospitalised outside of China, the fatality rate would not be very hight as of today, and I don't think that those cases are manipulated, do you?

On the other hand we can count the latest survival/recovery rate of those who end up in Chinese hospitals - according to official Chinese statistics there were 1726 recoveries and 639 deaths as of 7 Feb 2020. So the recovery rate is about 60% as of today. Hopefully it will improve with time, as it takes time to fully recover.
As of now, the fatality among more serious cases is somewhere around 40%, mathematically if we presume that fatality rate of this coronavirus is 2% the recovery rate at the end of the outbreak should be 98%, rather than 60% as it is now, so it is still a very long way to go until the outbreak is stopped.

I feel so sorry for Dr Li Wenliang who wanted to inform about the spread of the virus, but was silenced... The whole story including his death, and how the authorities tried to cover it up, is so very much depressing. Especially having in mind, that he was 34 years of age, and did not fall into any risk groups, besides, as a doctor who got infected while carrying out his duties he should have been offered the priority care. And yet he could not have been saved. Left a pregnant wife with a small child.

[Angela]

Another worrying development...

Young, healthy patients getting sick

Super-spreaders confirmed, including fast hospital acquired infection

*26*% progression to severe respiratory and inflammatory symptoms

Unexpected relapse/increased severity in patients with seemingly mild infection

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/07/h...-patients.html


The hospitals are becoming prime sources of the disease, and many of those affected are the hospital staff.

[bicicleur]

results and effect calculated with Statistics Artificial inteligence

that is not artificial intelligence
it is a mathematical row

[Yetos]

that is not artificial intelligence
it is a mathematical row

true.
I just used the term as the artical translated in Greek.
I agree, its simple math row, using a statistic model of distribution, of expand,

the term was τεχνητη νοημοσυνη, (artificial ineligence)

NOTICE
the average statistical death after infected is 1 per 40-50.
data from mainly chinese population,
we do not know yet in other populations.

[Dagne]

If this novel coronavirus is airborne as some other human coronaviruses or flu, then it is very difficult to contain. WHO say it is not, but how do they know? The right approach would be to say that we don't know at this point, but take the precautions as if it were. Even the Chinese themselves are warning that it might be.

If it is the case, then this outbreak basically has to burn out or stopped by summer weather (of course if this coronavirus is less infectious at warm temperatures). Let's see that kind of evidence we get with time. If it is airbone, then it will travel around the globe sooner of later.

This is an optimistic feature (in line with the official Chinese news making) about a doctor in Wuhan who overcame the coronavirus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rv1_BVUHZvg

At 1:51 the recovering doctor says that if you've healthy body, you have 70%-80% chances of recovery... which was supposed to be very comforting. But it is the same as saying the 20%-30% will die..., which is far from comforting.

[Angela]

^^Hardly comforting is right.

In Hong Kong two people got the virus who lived in the same apartment building, but they lived on different floors and didn't know one another. They're investigating to see whether it has to do with fecal matter.

A doctor came out and said public restrooms shouldn't be used unless absolutely necessary, and that if one does have to use one, nothing should be touched by the bare hands. He recommended using a paper towel to touch surfaces.

Jesus, my mother taught me that when I was five! What's wrong with people?

""Interestingly, a variable number of people get diarrhoea, which is of interest to me because it looks like this coronavirus has some of the same receptors as SARS, which target cells not only in the lungs but the gastrointestinal tract."SARS spread through faecal matter. We don't know if coronavirus can spread this way as well.
"But in the US, they did isolate it [coronavirus] in poo. Odds on it is most likely it could [spread this way]."
In Australia, patients would be isolated in a single room and with their own toilet, which would not be the case in China where hospitals and medical professionals had been swamped.
Dr Mackay said his understanding was about 20-25 per cent of coronavirus cases in China were considered severe."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-02-...eases/11950358

[Jovialis]

I can't believe this cute little animal might be the bat-to-human intermediary for coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/what...-humans-2020-2

[Carlos]

They always look for an animal to blame, with AIDS the monkey now the bat must be a sequel to the Middle Ages.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The second case of coronavirus in Spain is a British who was infected in the Alps

The patient is admitted and isolated in the hospital of Son Espases (Palma), although the diagnosis is “very mild




The National Center for Microbiology (CNM) has confirmed this Sunday morning that a British citizen has tested positive in the Balearic Islands for the Wuhan coronavirus. The man resides in Mallorca with his family and returned on January 29 from a ski trip to the French Alps during which he maintained close contact with a group in which five cases have been diagnosed, all of them British. The patient is admitted and isolated in the hospital of Son Espases (Palma), although the diagnosis is "very mild" and practically "asymptomatic", explained Fernando Simón, director of the Center for Coordination of Alerts and Emergencies (CCAES) of the Ministry of health.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

travel to China: "I lock myself up for responsibility"

https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020/02/...19_535263.html

At least 61 Chinese voluntarily isolate themselves in Spain after visiting their country of origin


Nan Yong, 49, on his second day of voluntary quarantine at his home in Madrid. On video, in quarantine at his home in Spain because he traveled to China. ATLAS

When Nan Yong landed in Madrid on Wednesday, his relatives were waiting for him with masks and the keys of two cars. In the first, everyone who welcomed him returned after having spent several weeks in Wenzhou (Zhejiang, China). In the other, Nan returned only to the house where he will be locked up for at least two weeks. "It is the only way to prevent a possible infection," says this 49-year-old wholesaler.

[Yetos]

if there is 'family connection' with SARS and MERS
then is not bat or snake,
but rather air circulation systems.

Yet the Hong kong case maybe lead us to other conclusions,
Something runs underneath official publishing, connecting it with 'gutter oil' there, officially is Rumors

from news

https://twitter.com/i/status/1226902394765746176

https://twitter.com/i/status/1227430649784651777


in my mind comes the medieval Europe

[Carlos]

The Mobile World Congress of Barcelona, canceled by the coronavirus

https://www.elmundo.es/economia/2020...5098b45f5.html

The Mobile World Congress (MWC) of Barcelona opts for cancellation. The GSMA association, organizer of the appointment, has held an extraordinary meeting of its council on Wednesday, to analyze electronically if the event is held before the wave of cancellations of the last days. The conclusion has been to cancel it.


"With all due respect to a safe and healthy environment in Barcelona and in the host country, today the GSMA has canceled the MWC Barcelona 2020, because the global concern regarding the coronavirus outbreak, the travel problem and other circumstances make it impossible for the GSMA celebrate the event, "the organization has ruled.

The Mobile brings together professionals from all over the world in Barcelona. The expected influx for this edition was counted at 110,000 people, with 5% of participants from China, that is, more than 6,500 people. The epidemic is concentrated in that country today: more than 1,100 people have died there because of the coronavirus and the infections amount to more than 44,000.

The case of the Dutch 'Mobile' that everyone attends despite the coronavirus

https://www.elconfidencial.com/tecno...resas_2450719/

The normal thing in the 'Mobile' of the Dutch capital is said by people like Roberto Quintanilla, owner of the Madrid-based company Kerkin Audiovisuales SL, who attended the event with his partner and with certain reluctance for the coronavirus, but after the first few days being there, now come with disbelief what happens in Barcelona. "Look, there are a lot of Chinese companies here, come on, we work with several, and they are working normally. The organization has put up a series of security measures and some Asian with a mask is seen, but little else," says Quintanilla, in conversation with Teknautas.

[Dagne]

I can't believe this cute little animal might be the bat-to-human intermediary for coronavirus.

https://www.businessinsider.com/what...-humans-2020-2

It is so cute and it is a victim, too, rather than culprit. HOW COULD anyone want to eat it?!

[Angela]

It is so cute and it is a victim, too, rather than culprit. HOW COULD anyone want to eat it?!

It's apparently the most trafficked endangered species.

Some people do eat them, but the scales are considered even more precious. They're used in traditional Chinese medicine. Clothing has also been made from the scales.
"The animal itself is eaten, but a greater danger arises from the belief that the scales have medicinal value. Fresh scales are never used, but dried scales are roasted, ashed, cooked in oil, butter, vinegar, boy's urine, or roasted with earth or oyster-shells, to cure a variety of ills. Amongst these are excessive nervousness and hysterical crying in children, women possessed by devils and ogres, malarial fever and deafness. "

I'll be charitable and just say that imo China isn't quite ready for first world status.

https://www.nature.com/articles/141072b0

The ultimate source is the bat, which is also eaten in some parts of China. The pangolin was the intermediary.

Diseases pass from animals to man. We get malaria from insect bites. We used to get tuberculosis from cows, through the milk.

It seems to me that even if an an animal harbors a bacterium or virus which can be transferred to humans, sanitary practices would get rid of most of the problem. It's all about hygienic practices in handling food, or not eating spoiled food. Look at the scourge of St. Anthony's Fire in the Middle Ages from eating ergot infected grain.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ergot

We've known for decades that the two biggest reasons for modern era longer life expectancy is antibiotics and sanitation of all kinds, in the environment and in food handling.

I don't know when it's going to penetrate into some people's skulls.

[bicicleur]

all papers today, without execption :

'Sharp increase in deaths and cases in Hubei'
while in fact it is because new criteria are used today

it this todays journalism? bringing fake news to draw the attention of possible readers?

at least Wall Street isn't reading the papers any more